Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in the Chinese cultural IP (Intellectual Property) industry, particularly during a recent roadshow event where startups faced tough questions from investors about their business models and market positioning [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The market size of China's cultural IP industry is projected to exceed 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and is expected to surpass 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating significant growth potential [1] - The event featured nearly 10 startup teams presenting projects across various segments, including animation, film, trendy toys, and theme parks, showcasing a diverse range of business models [1] Market Trends - There is a growing demand for cultural products that go beyond superficial representations of traditional culture, with a need for deeper storytelling that resonates with modern consumers [2][3] - Successful cultural IPs are characterized by their ability to extract and refine elements of national, regional, and historical culture, creating narratives that connect with audiences [2] Investment Insights - Investors emphasized the importance of focusing on core business models and avoiding overly complex strategies, suggesting that startups should concentrate on their primary monetization paths [4] - The example of Pop Mart, which took over a decade to develop its brand before expanding, was cited as a model for startups to follow in terms of building long-term value [4] Technology Integration - The integration of technology, such as AI and XR (Extended Reality), is reshaping the creative landscape, prompting discussions on how to maintain the essence of artistic works while leveraging technological advancements [3] - Companies are encouraged to ensure that technology serves the storytelling aspect of their projects rather than overshadowing it [3] Case Studies - The "Ice and Snow Guardian Alliance" project from Harbin aims to incorporate local minority cultures into its narrative but was advised to delve deeper into cultural exploration [2] - The "Suanmiao" building block product from Beijing's Qiaohuan Suanmiao Cultural Technology Co., Ltd. has achieved a stable repurchase rate of 50% to 60%, indicating strong market acceptance and potential for educational integration [5]

来源：明河投资 作者：胡一帆 本文写作时间：2025年10月8日 马拉松资本是一家伦敦的资产管理公司，他们在行业内极度低调，不做任何营销，客户全部是主动找上 门的机构投资者，十几个人的投资团队管理超过500亿美金的资产，在业内有极高的品牌认可度。 他们写过一本书叫《资本周期》（也有翻译成《资本回报》）非常有名。书中提及，马拉松资管喜欢两 种类型的公司——"持续优势"（增长型）和"困境反转"（价值型）。马拉松资本使用一个被称为"回报 衰减率"的框架，寻找两类投资对象，如下图所示： 投资对象A：一家能持续获得高于市场预期回报的公司（图上部虚线），即公司维持回报高于市场平均 水平的时间更长。 市场对A的"错误定价"源于：由于A短期遇到了问题（也可能是犯了某些战略上的错误），导致业绩下 滑，市场认为A的辉煌时代已经过去，由此给予较低估值。 也就是说，当一个具备好的商业模式、企业文化的企业，遇到一个未来能大概率能解决的问题时，市场 定价的短视导致这类公司往往会出现好的买入机会。 典型的案例就是2014-2016年期间的苹果，2011年乔布斯去世后，库克上任，苹果销量下滑，而安卓手 机阵营增长迅猛（华为、OPPO、VIV ...

Core Insights - The company celebrates its tenth anniversary, marking a significant milestone in its development journey and showcasing its commitment to building a pan-entertainment ecosystem driven by "AI + Gaming," "Globalization of IP Products," and "Gaming + Trendy Toys" strategies [1][2] Strategic Developments - The company held a grand anniversary celebration themed "Crossing Mountains and Seas, Expanding New Horizons" in Guangzhou, highlighting key milestones from its inception to product launches and international expansion [1] - The founder expressed gratitude towards industry partners and employees, emphasizing the importance of innovation, player-centric approaches, and technology-driven strategies for future growth [2] Partnerships and Collaborations - The company signed a cooperation agreement with COEXIST Group to develop and promote derivative products with over 200 trendy toy artists, marking a significant step in expanding its trendy toy business [2][4] - A licensing agreement was established with Chengdu Model Cafe Cultural Communication Co., Ltd. for exclusive distribution rights of "The Garfield Movie" IP derivatives in Greater China, enhancing the company's market presence [3] Product Development and Ecosystem - The company is focusing on a comprehensive upgrade of its trendy toy business, launching new products like "CASHY BABY" and planning to introduce the first crystal element trendy toy IP "LILIA ANGEL" [3] - The establishment of a "Classic IP + Artist IP" system aims to diversify creative development and enhance the IP lifecycle through a virtual-to-physical value enhancement system [5] Consumer Engagement Strategies - The company emphasizes "Emotional Interaction Design" and "Scene Social Experience" as core strategies to reshape consumer engagement, aiming to make trendy toys emotional mediums that resonate with users [6][7] - The strategy includes deep integration of digital technology and artistic creation, exploring interactive experiences and community-driven content creation [6][7] Future Outlook - The company plans to deepen its user-centric IP ecosystem strategy, leveraging its strengths in digital technology and marketing to promote its trendy toy business [7] - By combining the influence of international classic IPs, the artistic value of artist IPs, and its core competencies, the company aims to provide emotionally resonant and culturally rich IP derivative experiences [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the new consumption industry [3] Core Insights - New consumption is characterized by new demand from emerging consumer groups like Generation Z and a shift from leverage-driven consumption to income-driven consumption among older demographics [5][17] - The supply side benefits from China's robust manufacturing capabilities and the internet's ability to reshape business models and efficiency [5][17] - The report highlights two main investment opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors such as trendy toys and gold jewelry, and defensive cyclical sectors like liquor and travel [5][4] Summary by Sections New Consumption: What is New Consumption? - New consumption has gained traction in recent years, initially a term from the primary market, now widely recognized [17] - It encompasses both new demand from younger consumers and a shift in older consumers' preferences towards more rational spending [17][21] New Demand: Stars Gather to Form Light - Emotional consumption and the rise of national trends are significant drivers, with luxury attributes associated with products [46] - The report identifies key sectors: IP toys, gold jewelry, and new tea drinks, which align with current consumer trends [5][4] New Supply: Old Trees Sprout New Buds - The report emphasizes that industries with easier pathways develop first, while more challenging sectors follow as technology and information improve [33] - It discusses the efficiency gains in retail and service sectors through standardization and technological advancements [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two types of opportunities: aggressive new consumption sectors (e.g., trendy toys, gold jewelry) and defensive cyclical sectors (e.g., liquor, travel) [5][4] - Specific companies to watch include Pop Mart, Mijia, and various tea brands [5][4] Emotional Consumption and National Trends - Generation Z's emotional consumption is highlighted, with a significant portion willing to pay for emotional value [21][23] - The report notes the increasing acceptance of Chinese brands among younger consumers, contrasting with older generations' preferences [21][22] Gold Jewelry Market - The gold jewelry market is projected to grow significantly, with ancient gold jewelry gaining popularity due to its cultural significance [86][87] - The market size for ancient gold jewelry is expected to reach 4,214 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.8% [86][87] IP Toy Market - The report outlines the rapid growth of the IP toy market, with a projected market size of 1,741 billion by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [69][70] - The emotional value associated with IP toys is a key driver of consumer interest and market expansion [78][79]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on cross-regional expansion and IP development to support long-term operations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit projected over the next few years [7]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas retail presence, with 171 stores globally, and is well-positioned to meet growing demand from international markets [7]. - The report highlights the company's strong brand power and competitive advantages in IP design, operation, and supply chain management, which are expected to sustain long-term value creation [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections show a substantial increase from RMB 6.301 billion in 2023 to RMB 66.946 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% [5][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 1.184 billion in 2023 to RMB 23.569 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 28% [5][8]. - The report anticipates a significant rise in earnings per share (EPS), from RMB 0.88 in 2023 to RMB 17.55 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expanding its global presence and IP portfolio, which supports long-term operations. The retail store expansion is expected to activate new user demand in various regions [9] - The company has demonstrated strong IP operation capabilities, maintaining fan engagement through product innovation and iteration. The overall brand strength has significantly improved [9] - The long-term business model is viewed positively, with competitive advantages in IP design, operation, and supply chain management [9] - Revenue and profit forecasts have been revised upwards for 2025-2027, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: 6,301 million RMB - 2024: 13,038 million RMB - 2025E: 38,865 million RMB - 2026E: 52,738 million RMB - 2027E: 66,946 million RMB - Net profit projections for the same period are: - 2023: 1,184 million RMB - 2024: 3,220 million RMB - 2025E: 13,648 million RMB - 2026E: 18,429 million RMB - 2027E: 23,569 million RMB - The company expects significant growth rates, with net profit growth rates reaching 324% in 2025 [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net inflows from northbound trading, totaling HKD 27.27 billion on November 28, with notable net purchases in stocks like Alibaba, Pop Mart, and Xiaomi [1][2]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading through Stock Connect recorded a net purchase of HKD 27.27 billion, with HKD 9.33 billion from the Shanghai Stock Connect and HKD 17.94 billion from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most purchased stocks included Alibaba-W (09988) with a net inflow of HKD 10.94 billion, Pop Mart (09992) with HKD 5.49 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with HKD 4.7 billion [4][5]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a total trading volume of HKD 44.08 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 8 billion, driven by the launch of its new AI product, Quark AI Glasses S1 [2][4]. - Pop Mart (09992) benefited from government initiatives to promote consumer goods, resulting in a net inflow of HKD 2.08 billion [5]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of HKD 3.66 billion, supported by its recent share buyback program totaling over HKD 12 billion this month [5]. - Other notable stocks included Meituan-W (03690) and Tencent Holdings (00700), which received net inflows of HKD 4.7 billion and HKD 2.62 billion, respectively [6]. Group 3: Net Sell-offs - The stocks with the highest net sell-offs included Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) and Zijin Mining (02899), with net outflows of HKD 3 billion and HKD 2.81 billion, respectively [6]. - The semiconductor sector continues to face selling pressure, as evidenced by the net sell-off of Huahong Semiconductor (01347) amounting to HKD 1.23 billion [6].

在数字娱乐的广阔海洋中，贪玩（09890）迎来了其发展历程中的第十个里程碑。 在公司成立十周年这一关键节点上，贪玩采取了一系列重大战略举措，彰显了其在"AI + 游戏"、"IP产品全球化"和"游 戏 + 潮玩"三大战略驱动下，向构建泛娱乐生态平台迈进的坚定决心。 11月27日，贪玩于广州国际媒体港隆重举行了以"越山海 拓新天"为主题的十周年庆典。庆典上，长达近80米的历程阶 梯，记录着贪玩从创业，到产品上线，再到出海的各关键节点。 十年间，从"是兄弟就来kan我""大家好，我是渣渣灰"到"原汁原味，原始传奇""让斗罗真正自由"，贪玩游戏创造了一 个又一个典型营销案例，成为游戏行业代言营销的领航者。 庆典上，中国音像与数字出版协会常务副理事长兼秘书长在致辞中表示："贪玩十年的发展历程，是中国游戏产业锐 意进取、创新图强的一个生动缩影。"他充分认可了贪玩在推动产业健康发展中所展现的稳健与担当，并对公司未来 寄予厚望。中国互联网协会行业自律工作委员会秘书长于庆典上发布《游戏产业人工智能技术创新与责任倡议书》， 旨在引导并规范AI技术在游戏领域的应用，为产业的高质量与可持续发展提供重要指引。 贪玩创始人吴旭波先生向行 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued an implementation plan aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, further promoting consumption [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Transformation - The current supply of consumer goods in China has entered a new development stage characterized by high quality and price, but structural mismatches in supply and demand still exist in certain areas [2] - The implementation plan proposes five measures to address these mismatches, including expanding new product supply and accelerating the application of new technologies and models [2][3] Group 2: Market Segmentation and Consumer Needs - The plan emphasizes the need to cater to diverse consumer needs across different age groups, including initiatives for children's safety and elderly-friendly products [3][5] - It aims to create new consumption scenarios and business models, promoting platforms for product launches and exhibitions [3][6] Group 3: Economic Contribution and Growth - By 2027, the plan aims to create three trillion-yuan-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan-level consumption hotspots, including areas like elderly products and smart connected vehicles [4] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to steadily increase, with a goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [7] Group 4: Quality and Safety Standards - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance supply quality by focusing on technology leadership and improving brand standards [8] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is set to strengthen the quality and safety of consumer goods, particularly for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children [8]

泡泡玛特旗下Labubu首次亮相梅西感恩节大游行并取代经典形象大力水手，标志着这一中国IP已成功 晋升为全球流行符号。其产品不仅成为跨越年龄层的文化现象，更作为收藏品、时尚配饰和网络迷因席 卷主流市场，展现了中国文化出口的突破性成就。 在刚刚过去的感恩节期间，泡泡玛特旗下IP Labubu首次亮相第99届梅西百货感恩节大游行，取代经 典形象大力水手成为全场焦点，引发社交媒体热烈讨论。 据《纽约时报》报道，这一标志性事件具有深刻的文化隐喻：在今年的游行队伍中，曾经的经典形象 大力水手波派缺席了，取而代之的是来自亚洲的新一代流行符号。 Labubu的出现进一步证明了其在 全球范围内的崛起，这些娃娃已经成为收藏品、包包和背包的配饰，以及儿童和成人共同喜爱的网络 迷因，同时也是中国文化出口努力取得显著成功的一个例证。 这一现象级的市场表现被视为公司业绩兑现的先行指标。2025年11月27日，美银证券重申了对泡泡玛 特的"买入"评级，并将目标价维持在400港元。随着Labubu席卷纽约，美银认为，美国市场已确立成 为泡泡玛特新的增长引擎。 这次亮相不仅是一次商业推广，更是一次文化符号的更迭。游行执行制片人威尔·科斯表示 ...