美国政府的关税政策导致美国农业面临成本上涨和出口减少，而目前仍在持续的美国联邦政府"停摆"， 让美国农场主们的处境雪上加霜。大豆对于美国农业及农产品出口至关重要。根据美国农业部的数据， 2024年大豆以245.8亿美元的出口额位居美国农产品出口首位，占农产品出口总额的14%。但美国政府 的关税政策导致农业成本不断上涨，而且还极大损害了美国和其他国家的贸易关系，使得大豆等农产品 的出口受到极大冲击。正值收获季的美国农场主们不知该如何处理收获的大豆，这让像罗布·埃沃特这 样的农场主苦不堪言。（央视新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests maintaining a bearish outlook for the medium to long term in the corn and corn starch markets. For corn, with the progress of the US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, and domestic new - corn harvest in the Northeast is accelerating, leading to a weakening of both US and domestic corn prices. For corn starch, increased supply of raw material corn, reduced downstream demand, high inventory, and substitution from other starches are causing the market to decline in tandem with corn [8][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from before the holiday [8] - **Market Outlook**: US corn inventory as of September 1 was higher than expected, and the harvest progress was about 29%. In China, the new - corn harvest in the Northeast is accelerating, with high selling enthusiasm among farmers and limited capacity of grain - using enterprises, resulting in price cuts. The futures price is weakly adjusted under the influence of weak spot prices [8] - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [7][11] Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2432 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from before the holiday [12] - **Market Outlook**: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the cost support for corn starch weakens. Downstream demand has decreased, inventory is high, and substitution from other starches exists, causing the starch market to decline along with corn [12] - **Strategy**: Maintain a bearish outlook in the medium to long term [7][11] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Corn 11 - month contract closed down with a total position of 692516 lots, down 4760 lots from before the holiday. Corn starch 11 - month contract also closed down with a total position of 134743 lots, down 15998 lots from before the holiday [16] - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures was - 30774, and for starch futures it was - 37899, with little change in net short positions [22] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn were 22700, and for corn starch were 8028 [28] Spot Price and Basis - As of October 9, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2318.24 yuan/ton, and the basis between the 11 - month active contract and the spot average was + 193 yuan/ton [33] - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend. The basis between the 11 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot was 268 yuan/ton [38] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was + 0 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was + 2 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [44] Futures Spread - The spread between the 11 - month starch and corn contracts was 307 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 446 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton from last week [53] Substitute Spread - As of September 25, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 71.16 yuan/ton. In the 41st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 268 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [58] 3. Industrial Chain Corn - **Supply Side** - As of October 3, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 21.5 tons, down 11.80 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 11.7 tons, unchanged from last week. The inventory of the four northern ports was 71.4 tons, down 1.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 37.1 tons, up 14.70 tons week - on - week [48] - In August 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 4.00 tons, down 39.00 tons (90.70%) from the same period last year and 2.00 tons from last month [66] - As of October 9, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from last week, a 2.86% week - on - week and 6.06% year - on - year decline [70] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 42447 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 4042 million, down 1 million month - on - month, 103.6% of the normal reserve of 3900 million [74] - As of September 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was - 74.11 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 236.57 yuan/head [77] - As of October 9, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 196 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was 224 yuan/ton in Henan, - 107 yuan/ton in Jilin, and 156 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [82] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of October 8, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 233.4 tons, a 14.64% increase [86] - From October 2 to 8, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 54.45 tons, up 1.78 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 26.8 tons, up 1.22 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from last week [90] - As of October 8, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 119.1 tons, up 4.30 tons from last week, a 3.75% weekly, 4.57% monthly, and 31.17% year - on - year increase [90] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of October 10, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.72%, down 1.66% from 11.38% before the holiday. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being slightly above the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [93]

Core Points - The "Xiniu Mazu Bamboo Shoots" from Qingyuan, Guangdong, has been selected for the 2025 Agricultural Brand Boutique Cultivation Plan [2][3][14] - The plan aims to cultivate 23 regional public brands based on factors such as industry scale, brand foundation, market consumption, and domestic and international influence [7][8][11] Group 1: Agricultural Brand Selection - The 2024 Agricultural Brand Boutique Cultivation Plan includes 94 regional public brands, with six from Guangdong, including Xiniu Mazu Bamboo Shoots [13][14] - Xiniu Mazu Bamboo Shoots is recognized as one of the five hundred billion-level modern agricultural industries in Qingyuan [17][18] Group 2: Industry Statistics - In 2024, the planting area for bamboo shoots in Qingyuan reached 992,500 acres, with an increase of 104,900 acres [19] - The total fresh bamboo shoot production for the year was 1.5136 million tons, with a comprehensive output value of 10.965 billion yuan [19] - There are 124 bamboo shoot enterprises in the city, with 22 certified SC bamboo shoot companies [20]

特朗普嘴上说"用关税收入补贴农民"，农业部长也提过援助计划，可到现在连草案都没影儿。农场主可 耗不起，房贷和农资账单每月都得还。 特朗普手里没牌了？关税未伤中国，美国大豆滞销，农民慌得卖设备 先把镜头拉到中国这边。中国海关亮出一张新成绩单：2025年上半年货物进出口总额冲到 21.79万亿元 人民币，比去年同期涨了 2.9%。更扎心的是，对东盟和拉美的出口增速比整体还快。东盟自贸区 3.0版 谈判搞定了，数字基建合作框架也一次到位；拉美和非洲市场更是多年深耕——这可不是临时抱佛脚。 说起特朗普，大家都记得他那张"加税王牌"。可蹊跷的是，10月1日这天，来自密歇根州的州长惠特默 跑到多伦多痛批关税：赢家只有中国。听着像甩锅，可后面发生的事让人直呼真实。 与此同时，特朗普那条"农产品反制"线迎来高光：自 2025年5月起，中国企业一颗美国大豆都没下单。 别忘了，2023—2024销售年度中国买走了美国 54%的出口大豆，价值 132亿美元。突然归零，对美国农 场主就是晴天霹雳。 更巧的是，今年美国正赶上大豆大丰收，产量喜提新高，却没人接盘。仓库塞得满满当当，货轮在码 头"晒太阳"。大豆价格往下跳，化肥、柴油往上蹿 ...

巴西国家供应公司（Conab）数据显示，2024/2025作物季，巴西大豆产量升至63 亿蒲式耳（1蒲式耳等 于27.216千克），成为出口量增长的基础。与此同时，巴西农民正受益于来自中国的强劲需求。据巴西 通讯社报道，代表600万美国农民的美国农业局联合会的一项调查显示，受关税冲突影响，从6月到8 月，美国对华大豆出口"几乎为零"，并且中国未采购任何美国明年收获的新作大豆，此举为巴西、阿根 廷等其他国家的供应商提供了新的市场机会。 该组织表示，2025年1月至8月，中国仅从美国进口580万吨大豆，同比下降近80%。相比之下，巴西成 为对华大豆主要供应国。同期，巴西向中国市场出口超过7700万吨大豆。阿根廷在暂停出口税后增加大 豆销售，并在出口额超过70亿美元后退还了税款，此举推动了该国对中国大豆销售的增长。香港《南华 早报》近日报道称，阿根廷大豆出口订单9月飙升至7年高点，中国进口商在出口税暂停期间采购了数百 万吨。 【环球时报报道 记者 杨舒宇】巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）8日公布的数据显示，截至10月底， 巴西大豆出口量预计将达到1.022亿吨，超过2024年和2023年全年的出口量。路透社分析称 ...

美国媒体报道称，虽然今年农业产量创纪录，但农民可能无处出售农产品，"农民对特朗普（政府）的 忠诚即将接受考验"。英国《金融时报》报道也说，美国今年大豆满仓、但价格下跌，农民难以维持生 计。"美国头号出口农产品的海外销售量骤降，给美农造成'毁灭性'打击。" 美国豆农：受关税战反噬 美国大豆协会称，自5月以来，中国就不再购买美国大豆了。随着美国大豆进入收获季节，因大豆滞销 而面临巨额损失的豆农心急如焚…… 美农村正承受巨大痛苦 眼下，美国大豆已经进入收获季，美国豆农坦言，受关税战的反噬，目前美国农村正陷入巨大困境。 美国农场主 克里斯·古尔德：目前美国农村正承受着巨大痛苦。中国一直是我们大豆的头号买家，我们 很大一部分大豆都销往了中国。然而，当我们（美国）开始扰乱国际贸易后，中国就开始寻找其他供应 来源了。 大豆对于美国农业及农产品出口至关重要。根据美国农业部的数据，2024年大豆以245.8亿美元的出口 额位居美国农产品出口首位，占农产品出口总额的14%。 中国此前是美国大豆的最大买家，2024年购买了价值126.4亿美元的大豆，占美国大豆出口总额一半以 上。美媒称，自2025年5月起，中国再也没有从美国购买过 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean farmers are facing a historic crisis due to the absence of new orders from Chinese buyers, who previously accounted for over half of U.S. soybean exports, leading to a stockpile of over 7 million tons and prices dropping below production costs [1][3] - The crisis originated from the trade tariff policies, with U.S. tariffs on soybeans reaching 245%, making U.S. soybeans significantly more expensive than Brazilian soybeans, resulting in a drastic drop in U.S. soybean imports by China to a five-year low [3][5] - Brazil is capitalizing on the market opportunity, with a projected increase in soybean exports to China, while Argentina is enhancing its sorghum export standards to meet Chinese quality expectations, further solidifying South America's position in the global agricultural supply chain [5][7] Summary by Sections U.S. Soybean Market Crisis - U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing unprecedented market conditions, with no orders from China compared to 13 million tons ordered last year [1] - The U.S. soybean futures price has fallen 40% over three years, currently at $10.10 per bushel, below the estimated production cost of $11.03 per bushel [3] Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. tariffs on soybeans have led to a significant decline in imports from the U.S. by China, with a 40% increase in Brazilian exports to China during the same period [3][5] - The U.S. government is attempting to mitigate the impact through subsidies and seeking new buyers, but these efforts have had limited success [3][5] South America's Growing Influence - Brazil's agricultural sector is thriving, with a forecasted soybean import of 74.65 million tons by China in 2024, representing over 70% of China's total imports [5] - Argentina's new sorghum export standards are aimed at enhancing trade with China, reflecting a strategic shift in the agricultural export landscape [5][7] Broader Agricultural Industry Effects - The crisis is affecting the entire agricultural supply chain in the U.S., with a 40% decline in soybean throughput at Mississippi River ports and over 30% idle rates in storage companies [7] - The U.S. soybean inventory-to-consumption ratio is projected to rise to 18.7% in 2024, the highest in nearly a decade, indicating a lack of domestic demand to offset export losses [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The adverse effects of Trump's tariff policy are leading to significant financial losses for American farmers, with potential losses estimated at $45 billion due to plummeting exports to China and rising costs for fertilizers and machinery [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact on Farmers - U.S. soybean exports to China have decreased by $2.5 billion compared to the previous year, with no purchases made since May [1]. - If the current trend continues, U.S. soybean exports to China could drop by $10 billion this year [1]. - The decline in sorghum exports is even more severe, with a 97% drop from last year's $1.3 billion [1]. - Republican lawmakers estimate that farmers may require up to $50 billion in economic support, significantly exceeding the aid provided in 2018 [4]. - The total losses for U.S. farmers across nine major crops are projected to reach $45 billion this year, with corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton accounting for the majority of these losses [5]. Group 2: Government Response and Support - The Trump administration is expected to announce a new economic support plan for farmers, although the specifics and scale of the aid remain unclear [1][2]. - The previous fund established for agricultural support has been depleted, and the source of funding for the new aid is uncertain [4]. - Farmers express a need for immediate assistance, with some indicating that government aid is a temporary solution, and many may still face bankruptcy [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The U.S. is attempting to diversify its soybean export markets to countries like Mexico, the EU, Japan, and Indonesia, but the scale of the Chinese market makes it challenging to find immediate alternatives [8]. - There are ongoing discussions about potential trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, but industry representatives believe that any agreements may come too late to benefit many farmers [9]. - Long-term prospects for U.S. soybean exports to China appear bleak, as China shifts its sourcing to Latin American suppliers and emphasizes self-sufficiency [10].

国庆吃点啥——广东丰收特产赏味 东源人对板栗的"偏爱"，藏在对自然的珍视里。作为全国重点生态功能区、这里春夏湿热同步、秋季光 温互补，土壤有机质丰沛，恰好契合东源板栗"喜光喜温"的天性。从选种到采收，东源人遵循着自然的 节奏让每颗栗果都沉淀出纯粹的香甜。 不仅如此，东源县不断强化科技支撑与品牌建设，推动板栗产业向标准化、品牌化、现代化迈进。2023 年，东源县入选全省"百千万工程"首批典型县，农业总产值连续两年实现高速增长，板栗产业也成为带 动农民增收、助力乡村振兴的重要引擎。 弹牙的鲜货、肥美的海产、香甜的水果……这个国庆长假，让味蕾带路，奔赴南粤大地的丰收盛宴！山 野田间瀚海里，时令风物，每一口都是家乡的味道，更是"百千万工程"绘就下的丰饶。 南方都市报、南都大数据研究院与你一起寻味，国庆吃点啥？看这里！ 秋光漫过东源的丘陵，船塘镇的板栗园里，又是一年丰收季。河源市东源板栗，这颗有着三千年种植历 史的"中华名果"，正以粉糯香甜的滋味，走入千家万户的节庆餐桌。 在"百千万工程"的推动下，东源板栗种植规模稳步增长，产业链条日趋完善。截至2024年底，全县鲜栗 产量约1.98万吨，产值达3.52亿元，成为名副其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event titled "土司贡礼香飘湾区" aims to promote the unique agricultural and cultural products of Xincheng County, particularly its glutinous corn, to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, enhancing local economic development and cultural exchange [6][7][18]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Xincheng Glutinous Corn Festival and Cultural Promotion Event" will take place on October 10 at the Guangzhou 1906 Science and Technology Park [7]. - The event will feature a combination of agricultural product exhibitions and cultural experiences, showcasing the rich history and unique offerings of Xincheng [8][12]. Group 2: Agricultural Significance - Xincheng's glutinous corn is a key agricultural product, with an annual planting area of 107,500 acres, benefiting approximately 80,000 farming households [15]. - The annual production of glutinous corn is 45,500 tons, generating a value of 450 million yuan, making it a vital pillar for local agricultural development [15][16]. Group 3: Brand Development - The event will officially launch the new branding and standards for Xincheng glutinous corn, aiming to ensure high quality and authenticity for consumers in the Bay Area [36][38]. - Xincheng glutinous corn has received multiple accolades, including the "China Brand Shennong Award" and recognition as a "National Agricultural Cultural Heritage" [23][26]. Group 4: Economic Impact - The event is part of a broader initiative to connect local agricultural products with market demand, enhancing brand recognition and consumer access [21][22]. - E-commerce channels are being utilized to expand the reach of Xincheng glutinous corn, with projected online sales exceeding 20 million yuan in 2024 [34][35]. Group 5: Cultural Promotion - The event will include cultural performances and interactive activities, allowing attendees to experience the unique heritage of Xincheng, including traditional songs and local crafts [44][46]. - There will be opportunities for visitors to engage with local products and learn about tourism routes that highlight the area's cultural significance [48][54].