报告导读： 上周住房成交回落。9月5日深圳市出台进一步优化调整房地产政策，放松力度 大于京沪，这将有助于引入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求。维持行业"增持"评级。 2025年8月35城月度库存出清周期环比继续回升 ：35城2025年8月可售面积为31387万平，环比上个月0.64%，同比-4.42%。35城2025年8月库存出清周期（按 12个月月均计算）为22.09个月，环比上个月1.89%，同比去年-4.91%。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 上周大中城市成交回落。 9月5日深圳市发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》。我们认为深圳政策的放松力度大于北京、上海，有助于引 入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求，预计全年市场"止跌回稳"的趋势不变。维持行业"增持"评 ...

Supply - The average operating rate of 247 sample blast furnaces nationwide decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 81.8%, which is 4.8 and 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] - The average operating rate of coking enterprises fell by 1.8 percentage points to 68.4%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than 2024 but 4.1 percentage points lower than 2019[2] - The average operating rate of cement grinding fell by 2.3 percentage points to 40.3%, marking a new low compared to the same period in recent years, and is 10.1 and 27.4 percentage points lower than 2024 and 2019, respectively[2] Demand - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 11.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%[5] - The average sales area of second-hand homes in 18 cities decreased by 4.5% month-on-month but saw a year-on-year increase of 20.3%[5] - The apparent demand for steel increased by 0.1% to approximately 842.8 million tons, but the absolute value is the lowest in recent years, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Prices - The South China Index decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 4.0%[7] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.9% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 12.4%[7] - Pork prices fell by 1.1% to approximately 19.9 yuan/kg, with a year-on-year decline expanding to 27.3%[7] Inventory - Coastal power plants' coal inventory decreased by 1.5% month-on-month, but the absolute value remains high, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[8] - Steel and electrolytic aluminum inventories increased by 4.7% and 6.0% month-on-month, respectively, with both being at near historical lows[8] - Asphalt inventory decreased by 7.0% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 25.3%[8] Liquidity - The central bank net withdrew 10,086 billion yuan through OMO in the past half month, indicating a tightening of liquidity[10] - The issuance of local special bonds reached 4,449.9 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 32,819.7 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving 74.6% of the annual target[11]

（原标题：周末，不平静！降息利好来了！） 【导读】回顾周末大事，汇总十大券商最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，这个周末不平静！一起回顾下发生了哪些大事，以及看看券商分 析师们的最新研判。 周末大事 十四届全国政协经济委员会副主任易会满被查 十四届全国政协经济委员会副主任易会满涉嫌严重违纪违法，目前正接受中央纪委国家监委纪律审查和监察调查。 公开资料显示，易会满，男，汉族，1964年12月出生，高级管理人员工商管理硕士。自2016年6月起任中国工商银行股份有限公司董事长、执行董 事。2019年1月至2024年2月，易会满任中国证监会党委书记、中国证监会主席。2024年6月，任第十四届全国政协委员、经济委员会驻会副主任。 9月6日，中国证监会党委召开会议，传达中央纪委国家监委对易会满涉嫌严重违纪违法进行纪律审查和监察调查的决定。驻证监会纪检监察组有 关同志参加会议。与会同志一致表示，坚决拥护党中央决定，坚决拥护中央纪委国家监委决定。证监会党委书记、主席吴清主持会议。 美国关税政策迎来重大调整！黄金、钨、铀等关键商品获豁免 美国关税政策迎来重大调整。据最新消息，美国总统特朗普宣布，从全球国别关税中豁免石墨、钨 ...

Major Events - Yunzhisheng (09678) is actively exploring new sustainable business models and project opportunities [1] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) achieved the primary endpoint in the Phase III clinical study of anti-IL-17A monoclonal antibody for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis [1] - Hutchison China MediTech (00013) will present the latest data on several self-developed compounds at the 2025 World Lung Cancer Congress and the 2025 Annual Meeting of the Chinese Society of Clinical Oncology [1] - InnoCare Pharma-B (09606) reached the primary endpoint in the Phase III clinical trial of DB-1303/BNT323 for HER2-positive unresectable or metastatic breast cancer patients [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) plans to license its Class 1 innovative drug HRS-1893 to Braveheart Bio to expand into overseas markets [1] Financial Data - Aoyuan Group (01813) reported a pre-sale amount of 611 million yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9% [1] - GAC Group (02238) sold 135,700 vehicles in August, a year-on-year decline of 8.43% [1] - Zhongliang Holdings (02772) recorded a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 8.29 billion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year decrease of 32.71% [1] - Xiehe New Energy (00182) reported a total equity power generation of 507.64 GWh in August, a year-on-year increase of 6.07% [1] - Zhengrong Real Estate (06158) had a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 2.99 billion yuan in the first eight months, a year-on-year decrease of 30.8% [1]

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include detailed construction processes, formulas, or backtesting results related to quantitative analysis. The document primarily discusses macroeconomic trends, sectoral outlooks, and investment strategies without delving into quantitative methodologies. If you have another document or specific section that includes quantitative models or factors, please provide it for analysis.

一周财经大事记（2025年9月1日至2025年9月7日） 头条 重磅落下！深圳楼市大松绑，800万二套房贷利息可省51万 万众期待下，深圳楼市新政终于出台。9月5日晚间，深圳市住房和建设局、中国人民银行深圳市分行联 合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》。 南都·湾财社记者注意到，本次深圳政策重点从3个方面进行调整：放宽限购、松绑企业购房、优化信 贷。每一项调整都远超市场此前对"微调"的预期，力度直超北京、上海近期的楼市政策。 那么"深圳9.5楼市新政"到底能否为低迷的市场注入强心剂？对刚需买家、改善群体、企业购房者分别 意味着什么？又会对珠三角乃至全国楼市调控释放怎样的信号？ 成分只有水售价上百元！温泉水喷雾被指智商税，理肤泉回应 近日，理肤泉旗下爆款单品"舒缓调理温泉水喷雾"因成分表引发网络热议。有网友在社交平台上提出质 疑，理肤泉舒缓调理温泉水喷雾是"智商税"，原因是该产品的成分只有"水"，并称"如果只是把水装进 喷雾瓶里，为什么要卖到上百元？"随后，"理肤泉上百元喷雾被指成本只有水"等相关话题迅速登上热 搜。 擅自销售未经强制性认证的电芯！安普瑞斯被罚没约375万 国家企业信用信息公示系 ...

Market Overview - After a continuous rise, the market experienced a correction this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.83%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.35% [1] Sector Performance - This week saw a rapid shift in market hotspots, particularly with significant fluctuations in heavyweight blue-chip sectors such as banks, brokerages, liquor, healthcare, and real estate, alongside a sharp decline in military and high-yield insurance stocks. In contrast, small-cap stocks showed strength [3] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The market outlook appears contradictory; after a substantial rise, the Shanghai Composite Index is facing resistance at the 3900-point level, indicating a potential for short-term correction. Additionally, the public fund fee reform has led to significant reductions in custody and transaction fees [3] - Two hypotheses are proposed: first, the correction may continue to be exaggerated and will require time; second, after the correction, there is a probability of a rapid rebound, with indices potentially surpassing recent highs, particularly the ChiNext Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [3] Investment Strategy - A cautious approach is recommended in the short term, suggesting that investors with satisfactory returns may consider taking profits or reallocating their portfolios. For the medium to long term, a strategy of buying on small dips is advised to lower holding costs [3]

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.03%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.90%[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.04 percentage points from August, while the demand index increased by 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, and the consumption index is at 49.71%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] Loan and Financing Trends - The ELI index is at -0.68%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, indicating a potential decrease in new loans for August[11] - New loans in August are expected to be between 800 billion and 850 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 100 billion to 50 billion CNY[15] - Government bond financing in August is projected at 1.33 trillion CNY, down 510 billion CNY year-on-year[15] Real Estate Market - As of September 6, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities has turned positive year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai aim to ease purchase restrictions, which may stabilize the real estate market[7] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for automotive tires has decreased, with full steel tires at 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points from last week[16] - The average wholesale price of pork is 19.91 CNY/kg, down 0.05 CNY/kg from last week, while the price of key monitored vegetables is 5.08 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg[40] Export and Shipping - The Shanghai export container freight index is at 1444.44 points, down 0.62 points from last week, indicating a slight decline in export shipping costs[34] - South Korea's export growth rate for August is 1.30%, down 4.60 percentage points from July, reflecting a slowdown in export performance[34]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a prolonged adjustment period since 2022, with average national housing prices declining by over 30%, significantly impacting families with multiple properties [1][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The decline in housing prices has been felt across various cities, with second and third-tier cities experiencing sharper declines, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region where prices have dropped by more than 50% [1]. - The proportion of families owning two or more properties has exceeded 45%, facing unprecedented challenges in liquidating their assets [1][3]. - The supply-demand imbalance is evident, with cities like Chongqing seeing nearly 340,000 second-hand homes listed for sale, while buyer demand continues to shrink [3]. Group 2: Financial Burdens on Homeowners - Families with multiple properties are struggling with heavy mortgage payments, which have become burdensome as incomes decline [3][6]. - The average monthly mortgage payment has surpassed 12,000 yuan, with first-tier city families often paying over 20,000 yuan, consuming more than 70% of their income [6]. - The cost of maintaining properties is rising, with monthly property fees for larger homes reaching 200 to 300 yuan, and additional costs for heating and maintenance increasing annually by 5% to 10% [7]. Group 3: Rental Market Challenges - The expectation of using rental income to cover mortgage payments is becoming increasingly difficult, especially in third and fourth-tier cities where rental demand is low [8][10]. - In major cities like Shanghai, rental prices have decreased, making it harder for homeowners to rely on rental income to alleviate financial pressure [10]. Group 4: Psychological and Social Impacts - The financial strain from high mortgage debts is leading to significant psychological stress, with individuals facing anxiety and depression at rates three times higher than the general population [14]. - Many families are forced to cut back on essential expenses, including education and healthcare, due to the financial burden of their mortgages [14]. Group 5: Risks of Default - The risk of default is a growing concern, with some homeowners considering extreme measures like "defaulting" on their loans, which can lead to severe financial and legal repercussions [15]. - A case study illustrates the potential losses and long-term damage to credit scores that can result from defaulting on mortgage payments, highlighting the precarious situation many homeowners find themselves in [15].

Core Viewpoint - The prediction that housing prices will rise to 4-5 times their current levels by 2030 is deemed exaggerated and lacks reliable factual support, with mainstream forecasts suggesting more moderate increases instead [1][9][17]. Source of Predictions - The prediction of housing prices reaching 4-5 times is based on three main sources: a report from a real estate consulting firm, a personal opinion article, and a viral video from a self-proclaimed expert, with varying degrees of credibility [2]. Factors Influencing Housing Prices - Population changes are a key factor, with China's population expected to stabilize around 1.45 billion by 2030, leading to a gradual slowdown in housing demand growth [4]. - The reform of the household registration system has facilitated population movement and housing demand, with 47 cities adjusting their policies in 2024 and more following in 2025 [5]. - Economic growth and income levels are crucial, with GDP growth projected at 4.5%-5% annually and urban residents' disposable income increasing by 4%-4.5% [5]. - Land supply and housing policies are also significant, with a 7.3% increase in residential land supply in 2024 and an 8.1% increase in early 2025, contributing to price stability [5]. - Financial environment and monetary policy adjustments, such as reduced mortgage rates, provide liquidity support to the housing market [5]. Mainstream Predictions for 2030 - Optimistic forecasts suggest an average national price increase of 80%-120%, with some hot city areas potentially rising to 2-3 times current prices [8]. - Neutral predictions estimate a 40%-60% increase, while cautious forecasts predict a maximum increase of 30%, with some cities possibly experiencing price declines [8]. Issues with Extreme Predictions - Predictions of a 4-5 times increase often rely on simplistic historical extrapolation, ignoring the current economic and market conditions [9]. - They tend to overlook income growth constraints, as rising prices beyond income growth can lead to market imbalances [9]. - These predictions underestimate the impact of policy regulations aimed at stabilizing housing prices [11]. - They may be based on specific regions or periods that do not represent broader market trends [11]. Recommendations for Housing Decisions - Emphasizing the residential nature of housing, with 75.3% of respondents prioritizing basic living needs over investment [12]. - Advising financial planning to ensure housing costs remain within 30%-40% of household income [12]. - Encouraging consideration of city development plans and location choices, as these factors significantly influence future price trends [12]. - Suggesting diversification of investment to mitigate risks associated with real estate [12]. - Promoting rational decision-making, avoiding panic or blind adherence to extreme predictions [13]. Market Trends and Future Considerations - Noting potential regional price differentiation, with about 20% of cities expected to see rapid growth, 60% moderate increases, and 20% declines [15]. - Highlighting the impact of urbanization and the shift in housing demand due to technological advancements and climate change [16].