Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial products including stock indices, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It suggests different trading strategies based on the market trends, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships of each product. For example, in the stock index market, it recommends buying IM index futures when the impact of the tariff storm weakens; in the copper market, it expects the price to be strong in the short term due to supply - demand factors and policy changes [2][4][10]. Summary by Categories Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the ChiNext Index up 1.36%, the STAR 50 up 2.07%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1348.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: China's social financing increment in March was 5.89 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan. The US announced tariff exemptions for some products but may re - review and impose tariffs on electronics. The US Treasury bond sell - off continued, and the yield exceeded 4.5% on Friday [2]. - **Funding and Valuation**: The margin trading balance increased by 2.755 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 13.40bp to 1.6070%. The P/E ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. were 12.09, 27.48 respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IM index futures on dips after the impact of the tariff storm weakens. Unilateral trading suggests buying IM index long positions, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined, with TL down 0.36%, T down 0.14%, TF down 0.13%, and TS down 0.07% [5]. - **News**: At the end of March, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale was 8.4%, and the RMB loan balance increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The US tariff policy may lead to a more active domestic monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will maintain a downward trend in the medium term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to policy risks and take profit opportunities [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 763.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.79% to 8153.00 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.20% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's hawkish monetary policy may pose a potential risk to the gold price. The current gold price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and there may be a price correction after the positive factors are exhausted [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold existing long positions in gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 748 - 780 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kg [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 34,000 tons. The short - term copper price is expected to be strong due to supply - demand factors and policy changes. The reference operating range for the domestic Shanghai copper main contract is 73,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 8900 - 9500 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rebounded after a decline. The domestic inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to continue to rebound. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2350 - 2480 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell on Friday. The zinc market is expected to be bearish in the medium term. Due to the large impact of macro events, it is recommended to reduce positions [12]. - **Lead**: The lead price rose slightly on Friday. The lead market is affected by macro uncertainties and supply - demand factors. It is expected to maintain high - volatility and low - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to reduce positions [13]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices recovered from a low level last week. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 120,000 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell sharply last week. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is expected to weaken. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference operating range for the Shanghai tin main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin 3M is 29,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate was stable on Friday, and the contract price was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference operating range for the main contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,300 - 71,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose on April 11. The supply is still in excess, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. [18] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on the previous trading day. The short - term price of steel products is expected to be weak and volatile due to trade frictions and supply - demand factors [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply is stable, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to control positions [22]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price declined slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for both [23][24]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were volatile last week. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon continued to decline on April 11. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading strategies [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The global financial market rebounded, and the rubber market was affected by macro factors. The supply and demand of rubber were in a state of contradiction. It is recommended to operate conservatively, shorten the decision - making and holding periods, and reduce positions [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.08%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.88%, and INE crude oil futures fell 1.50%. It is recommended to take profit on dips and wait for the inflection point [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was affected by macro factors. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be supported by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and use positive arbitrage strategies for the inter - month spread [43]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded in the short term. It is recommended to close short positions. In the long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [44]. - **PVC**: The PVC price declined slightly. The short - term fundamentals are supported, but the medium - term outlook is weak. [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rose slightly. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX price fell slightly. The PX market is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The price of PE is expected to decline in the medium - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [50]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The price of PP is expected to be volatile and bearish in April due to supply and demand factors [51]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rose over the weekend. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas. It is recommended to short on rallies [53]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg price was stable over the weekend with a slight increase in some areas. The short - term sentiment is positive, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals [54]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal is expected to rise in the short term and then decline. The medium - term price is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to use a buy - on - dips strategy [55][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price was affected by production, export, and crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats may be supported if the macro situation stabilizes [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The short - term sugar price may be volatile, and the medium - term price is affected by weather conditions [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the medium - term price depends on downstream consumption. The possibility of a price decline is relatively high [62][63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is neutral, and for arbitrage, it is inter - period positive spread [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On the supply side, the TC has maintained an upward trend so far, but the future upward space and amplitude are limited. Currently, due to the relationship between TC and price, smelting enthusiasm is high, and supply will continue to increase, which will limit the upside of zinc prices. Consumption is relatively strong, the export market has not been affected by tariffs, and the year - on - year export growth rate is relatively fast. After the absolute price decline, the downstream's enthusiasm for point - price procurement is high, social inventory has significantly declined, and the spot premium has risen rapidly. Low inventory provides favorable support for zinc prices, and zinc prices will maintain a range - bound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of April 10, 2025, the LME zinc price decreased by - 3.69% to $2647/ton compared with last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract decreased by - 1.94% to 22,705 yuan/ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from - $11.53/ton last week to - $15.80/ton [3] - As of the week of April 11, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in SMM remained stable at 3400 yuan/metal ton compared with last week, and the weekly processing fee for imported zinc concentrates remained stable at $35/ton. Some local areas saw a slight increase, while the rest remained stable. Due to the decline in zinc prices, the future upward space for TC is limited. The domestic smelter output in March was 547,000 tons, 1000 tons more than expected, and the expected output in April is 568,000 tons [3] - In terms of consumption, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises increased by 0.55% to 60.3% compared with last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by - 3.37% to 54.1%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.57% to 60.65% [3] - As of April 10, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven locations was 102,100 tons, a decrease of - 7000 tons compared with the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 6568 tons to 6980 tons compared with the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 11,550 tons to 121,800 tons compared with last week. The decline in the absolute price last week stimulated downstream point - price procurement, and social inventory significantly declined [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5]

Core Viewpoint - Minshan Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. has met the conditions for issuance, listing, and information disclosure as per the announcement from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company reported revenues of 2.599 billion, 2.939 billion, and 2.895 billion from 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 46.14 million, 61.25 million, and 72.99 million respectively [4] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company expects revenue between 790 million to 810 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.19% to 26.31% [4] Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The company faces risks related to the non-payment of social security and housing funds for some employees as of the end of the reporting period [2] - The company operates in a heavily regulated non-ferrous metal smelting industry, which is subject to macro-control policies that could adversely affect operations [2] - Environmental production restrictions may impact operations during periods of poor air quality, with a 30% production limit on certain products [2] - The company has a relatively underdeveloped hazardous waste recovery network, which may hinder its operational advantages [3] - As of the end of the reporting period, the company had assets worth 385.74 million under mortgage or pledge, accounting for 26.54% of total assets, posing a risk to normal operations if debts are not repaid [3] Group 3: IPO and Fundraising - The company plans to raise 295 million through an IPO, with the issuance of up to 70 million shares or 80.5 million shares if the overallotment option is fully exercised [5]

每经记者 刘志远 每经编辑 杨夏 | | 有色金属 | 内蒙古自治区 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 石油石化 | 北京市 | | 环境违法违规 | 医药生物 | 江苏省 | | | 电子 | 福建省 | | | 环保 | 江西省 | | | 食品饮料 | 浙江省 | | | 煤炭 | 陕西省 | 一周绿鉴：北方稀土控股公司超标排放大气污染物被罚 在企业管理能力、财务状况、行业竞争等因素之外，环境风险日渐成为上市公司重要的经营风险之一。环境风险关乎企业发展，也关乎企业形象。 环境风险榜涉及上市公司分布情况（4月第2周） | | 有色金属 | 内蒙古自治区 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 石油石化 | 北京市 | | 环境违法违规 | 医药生物 | 江苏省 | | | 电子 | 福建省 | | | 环保 | 江西省 | | | 食品饮料 | 浙江省 | | | 煤炭 | 陕西省 | 本期数据显示，生态环境领域违法违规等风险信息共关联到9家上市公司。其中，4家属于国资控制的企业。 《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，9家上市公司背后有125.48万户的股东，投资标的登上环境风险榜 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face consolidation in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to large emotional fluctuations, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [2]. - **Corn**: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: After a sharp decline to release risks, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out at an appropriate time [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be opened on rallies [5][6]. - **Steel**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel prices will fluctuate at a low level [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: With sufficient supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level, but the upward space is limited [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - **Crude Oil**: After a sharp decline in the WTI main contract after the holiday, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/barrel of the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12]. - **PVC**: Due to weak macro - sentiment, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The 05 contract of soda ash continued to decline yesterday, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: During the current period, it is the sowing season of US soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is almost completed. The new South American soybean crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium - term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,140 yuan/ton (+40), Tianjin 3,340 yuan/ton (+70), Rizhao 3,300 yuan/ton (+100), and Dongguan 3,050 yuan/ton (+40) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is nearly finished, and the export of US soybeans is still pessimistically expected. The arrival of imported soybeans is increasing, and the terminal breeding demand is average. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia are 2,088 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,293 yuan/ton; the purchase price at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture, bulk density 680 - 720) is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton; and at Bayuquan Port (bulk density 680 - 730, 15% moisture) is 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The US corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach 95.326 million acres, a 12 - year high. The domestic farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the overall supply - demand pattern is improving. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan/ton, down 4,540 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets. The domestic policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. The raw material shock is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (-1,400), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 79,100 yuan/ton (-1,400). The price difference between the two is 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of lithium spodumene concentrate has been lowered. The weekly operating rate is increasing, but the growth rate is slowing down. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. The inventory has been continuously accumulating [5]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan/ton, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory of rebar is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, and the contango structure has weakened. The cost center of steel is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the supply and demand are both strong [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons; and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is still sluggish, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 95.65, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 749 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the global port inventory has reached a new high since 2023. The demand is weak, and the market is worried about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The US has postponed the collection of "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries for 90 days and reduced tariffs on some countries to 10%, while maintaining a 129% tariff on China. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the US PMI data in February contracted. The trade war and the Russia - Ukraine conflict have increased uncertainties, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely affected [10]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16,600 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 21,600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17,750 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber 16,350 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariff" has a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is concerned about the import volume and inventory changes of rubber in China [12]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream spot price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price difference between the two is 330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly. The social inventory has decreased due to various factors. The futures price has fallen due to macro - tariff factors, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [13]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,462.38 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,525 yuan/ton, 1,575 yuan/ton, and 1,450 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged month - on - month [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating rate of soda ash has increased, and the production has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has accumulated, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is average, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced goods. The global tariff disturbance still exists, and the short - term futures price is under pressure [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2505 contract may face consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may fluctuate strongly [2] - The short - term futures price of corn will fluctuate within a range, and the idea of range operation should be maintained [3] - After the rapid decline of copper price to release risks, it needs a rest, and tactical defense should be carried out opportunistically [4] - The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6] - The market sentiment of steel is pessimistic, and it will fluctuate at a low level [7] - Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at a low level with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly fluctuating strongly, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9] - After the holiday, the WTI main contract will have a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the support level of INE crude oil at around 470 yuan/barrel [10] - Attention should be paid to the downstream start - up situation of Shanghai rubber, and the rubber will mainly fluctuate weakly [12] - In the short term, there is a lack of fundamental positive driving factors, and the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [13][14] - Yesterday, the 05 contract on the futures market fluctuated due to short - term macro - sentiment, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the futures market will still fluctuate widely in the short term [15] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Information - The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8270 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3130 yuan/ton (120), Tianjin 3290 yuan/ton (160), Rizhao 3220 yuan/ton (150), Dongguan 3020 yuan/ton (50) [2] - The mainstream purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2082 yuan/ton; the mainstream purchase price of new corn in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai is 2281 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Jinzhou Port (15% water/volume weight 680 - 720) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton; the purchase price in Bayuquan (volume weight 680 - 730/15% water) is 2130 - 2155 yuan/ton [3] - The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73820 - 75400, down 4540, with a premium of 100 - 200. The import copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [4] - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 73400 (- 500) yuan/ton, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 73700 (- 400) yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1700 (- 100) yuan/ton [5] - The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, the start - up rate in Tangshan is 83.13%, the social inventory is 590.95 million tons, and the inventory in steel mills is 207.12 million tons [7] - The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1200 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) in Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 347.56 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 217.13 million tons [8] - The Platts index of iron ore is 102.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 768, and the price of Australian iron ore powder with 62% Fe is 787 [9] - The spot prices of rubber are: domestic whole latex 16600 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece 21600 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber 17750 yuan/ton, and No. 20 rubber 16350 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in Ho Ai are: smoked sheet 72.59 Thai baht/kg, latex 67.5 Thai baht/kg, cup lump 60.95 Thai baht/kg, and raw rubber 68.99 Thai baht/kg [11] - The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13] - The mainstream price of national heavy soda ash is 1467.19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; among them, the mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1525 yuan/ton, in North China is 1575 yuan/ton, and in Central China is 1450 yuan/ton, all remaining unchanged compared with the previous period [15] Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil**: Currently, it is the sowing season of American soybeans and the harvesting and export season of South American soybeans. The harvesting of Brazilian soybeans is basically completed. The new crop in South America is likely to have a bumper harvest. In the medium term, the new supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be sorted out [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. The harvesting of South American soybeans is nearly over, and the Sino - US trade tariff war affects the export of American soybeans. Due to the delay of soybean arrival and shutdown for maintenance, the supply of soybean meal may be tight, but it is expected to turn loose when South American soybeans are concentrated on the market later. The terminal breeding demand is average, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills remains neutral. Due to the additional high - tariff imposition between China and the US during the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the short - term sentiment of soybean meal is strong [2] - **Corn**: In the international market, the expected planting area of American corn in 2025 is 95.326 million acres, reaching a 12 - year high, and the quarterly inventory is close to market expectations. In the domestic market, farmers have sold nearly 90% of their grain, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly year - on - year, reducing the supply pressure. The downstream pig production capacity is recovering, and the feed consumption is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors such as policy grain rotation and wheat substitution. Although the recent tariff event may affect the corn price, the price is still mainly dominated by domestic supply and demand [3] - **Copper**: The global "irrational" tariff shock has caused great fluctuations in overseas capital markets, leading to turmoil in overseas - priced non - ferrous metals and the stock market. The continuous status - quo maintenance of the Federal Reserve reflects the uncertainty. In 2025, the topic of ending the interest - rate cut path may be discussed. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening, which is conducive to the recovery of market sentiment. From the industrial perspective, the raw material shock is still extremely severe, the mining problem has not been completely solved, the inventory accumulation factor has ended, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In terms of cost, the price of lithium ore remains unchanged compared with last week, and the inventory has increased. In terms of supply, the weekly start - up rate continues to increase, but the growth rate slows down, and the salt - lake end has started to resume production. If a large amount of low - cost lithium salt flows into the market, it may impact the price. In terms of demand, the terminal consumption in March has improved month - on - month, the power battery has maintained stable growth, and the production of cathode materials is stable, but the demand is still not enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory continues to accumulate [5] - **Steel**: The fundamentals of steel have gradually improved, with the far - month contracts stronger than the near - month contracts, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policies support the stabilization of the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, the raw material price has fluctuated strongly this week, and the cost center of steel has increased dynamically. The social inventory and steel - mill inventory of steel are both decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, the macro - policy expectation dominates the futures market, and the fundamentals are gradually improving, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is relatively loose, with the domestic production capacity steadily recovering, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants running smoothly, and the import of Mongolian coal remaining at a high level despite some disturbances. The demand is weak, as steel mills are reducing production, and there is still an expectation of a decline in hot - metal production. The independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. The average profit per ton of coke is running smoothly and is gradually approaching the break - even line [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market has both bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, the shipment volume of the three major Australian mines in the first quarter increased by 8% year - on - year, the new mining area of Vale in Brazil was put into production ahead of schedule, and the global port inventory reached 145 million tons, a new high since 2023. On the demand side, the resumption of production of Chinese steel mills has slowed down. Although the traditional peak season came in March, the fund - arrival rate of downstream real - estate and infrastructure projects is low, the daily average hot - metal production remains at a low level of 2.25 million tons, steel mills are cautious about replenishing inventory, and the port desilting volume has declined for three consecutive weeks. Overseas demand is differentiated. The production increase of Indian steel mills supports part of the demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric - arc furnaces is enhanced, reducing the dependence on iron ore. The market is worried about the contraction of long - process steel - making demand. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut signal in March has weakened the US dollar index, which supports the commodity price. Technically, the main contract of iron ore has strong support at the 110 - dollar mark, and if there is a marginal improvement in demand, the price may have a phased rebound [9] - **Crude Oil**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs" and China counter - imposed, the global capital market fell sharply, and crude oil was hit hard. The overseas market fell by more than 10% during the holiday. There is a risk of a limit - down opening of domestic crude oil and fuel oil after the holiday. OPEC+ decided to increase production in May, and the rare contraction of the US PMI data in February has raised concerns about demand. The crude oil price has fallen below the previous low support and entered a technical bear market. The US trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the demand in the second quarter may be severely dragged down by the trade war [10] - **Rubber**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" have a great impact on China's tire and automobile exports, causing the rubber price to fall across the board. The fundamental factors are secondary to the macro - sentiment. Fundamentally, the domestic whole - latex production is gradually resuming, and the Southeast Asian production areas are gradually stopping production. The supply in Thailand's southern region is still abundant. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US automobile tariff may seriously suppress the global rubber demand [12] - **PVC**: In terms of supply, the start - up rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 80.02%, an increase of 0.21% month - on - month and 2.17% year - on - year. Among them, the start - up rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 82.40%, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month and 2.63% year - on - year, and the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.77%, a decrease of 0.58% month - on - month and an increase of 1.55% year - on - year. In terms of demand, the domestic downstream product enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are mainly for rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of April 3, the social inventory of PVC has decreased by 3.41% month - on - month to 77.78 million tons, a decrease of 11.65% year - on - year. The inventory in East China and South China has also decreased. The futures price on April 7 was affected by extreme macro - fear factors, opening sharply lower and then rebounding, but still closing at a low level. The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent, the inventory is relatively high, and the downstream demand is weak [13] - **Soda Ash**: In terms of supply, the overall start - up rate of soda ash last week was 85.09%, an increase of 2.72% month - on - month, and the output was 713,000 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 3.30%. The equipment maintenance has gradually recovered, and the output has increased. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 1.7014 million tons, an increase of 71,400 tons month - on - month, with a growth rate of 4.38%, and the inventory has significantly accumulated. The social inventory shows a downward trend. The demand is average, and the middle and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods and still resist high - price goods. The tariff policy has limited impact on the soda - ash market, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping indices, and multiple commodity sectors. The core view is that the markets are significantly affected by the US "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by Trump, which has led to increased market volatility and uncertainty. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The US's unexpected tariff increase will affect short - term market sentiment. A - share markets were volatile, and the four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performances. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to subsequent domestic hedging policies [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Despite the central bank's net withdrawal, the capital interest rate decreased. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased due to the US tariff plan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise rapidly. It is recommended to go long in the short - term, and pay attention to various strategies such as basis trading and curve trading [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US tariff policy announcement has a short - term impact. Gold prices rose slightly due to safe - haven sentiment, and silver prices were boosted by other non - ferrous metals. The long - term drivers for gold remain unchanged, and the price is expected to reach $3200 per ounce this year [8][10][11]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Container Shipping**: The spot price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, and the futures market will be volatile. There may be upward opportunities for the 06 and 08 contracts in the peak season. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and consider going long on the 08 contract [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US reciprocal tariff is higher than expected, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper is tight, but high prices suppress demand. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 77000 - 80000 [20]. - **Zinc**: The price is under pressure and has declined due to tariff - related risk aversion. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 22000 [20]. - **Tin**: Supply disruptions and low LME inventories have led to a sharp increase in tin prices. The traditional demand is weak, while the emerging demand has support. It is recommended to wait and see [23][25][26]. - **Nickel**: The reciprocal tariff has little impact on the fundamentals. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 126000 - 134000. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes and the situation of the ore end [26][29]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw materials provide strong support, and there is a continuous game between supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13200 - 13600 [30][32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with the main contract in the range of 72000 - 76000 [33][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The blast furnace continues to resume production, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking. The demand is affected by the US tariff policy. It is recommended to avoid going long for now and pay attention to the 5 - 10 positive spread [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: There are frequent macro disturbances, and the height of hot metal production recovery is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 820 [40][41]. - **Coke**: After the eleventh round of price cuts, the market is temporarily stable. The supply and demand have improved marginally, but the futures have over - anticipated the rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved, and coal mine production has slightly increased, but the inventory is high. The futures have over - anticipated the rebound. It is recommended to short on rallies [45][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Attention should be paid to production cuts and macro - sentiment changes. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [48][50]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Production cuts are being implemented. It is necessary to be vigilant about the ore end and macro - sentiment disturbances. The price is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Trump's tariff policy has weakened market sentiment. The soybean meal price is expected to remain volatile, and the rapeseed meal price is expected to adjust weakly [55][57]. - **Pigs**: The spot price fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the risk of increasing pig weight. The futures price is supported to some extent by the basis [58][59]. - **Corn**: The supply is stable, and the short - term market is active. The price is expected to rebound in the short - term and be strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [61][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price rebounds, and the domestic price oscillates at a high level. The raw sugar will fluctuate in the range of 17 - 20 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock [64]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic downstream situation has improved marginally. The domestic cotton price is expected to move within a range [66].

Report Date - The report is dated April 2, 2025 [1][5][10] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The market is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, economic data, and geopolitical tensions [2][4][5] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. The Shanghai gold futures contract 2504 closed at 736.30 yuan, up 0.89% [2][5] - **Silver**: Declined due to the impact of non - ferrous metals. The Shanghai silver futures contract 2504 closed at 8412 yuan, down 0.84% [2][5] Base Metals - **Copper**: The market is cautious, waiting for the US to impose tariffs. The Shanghai copper futures contract closed at 80,430 yuan, up 0.60% [2][10] - **Aluminum**: Traded in a high - level range. The Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,525 yuan [2][13] - **Alumina**: Prices are under pressure. The Shanghai alumina futures contract closed at 2951 yuan [2][13] - **Zinc**: Traded under pressure, with attention on tariff disturbances. The Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 23,615 yuan, up 0.68% [2][16] - **Lead**: Weak in the medium - term. The Shanghai lead futures contract closed at 17,410 yuan, down 0.20% [2][19] - **Nickel**: The cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Shanghai nickel futures contract closed at 130,360 yuan [2][22] - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term is dominated by cost logic, while there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term. The Shanghai stainless steel futures contract closed at 13,545 yuan [2][23] - **Tin**: Continued to rise. The Shanghai tin futures contract closed at 287,480 yuan, up 1.82% [2][27] Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The Si2505 contract closed at 9,790 yuan [2][32] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today. The PS2506 contract closed at 43,560 yuan [2][33] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The fundamental weakness remains, and there is a downward drive in the futures market. The 2505 contract closed at 74,360 yuan [2][36] - **Iron Ore**: Traded in a volatile manner. The I2505 contract closed at 792.0 yuan, up 2.46% [2][41] - **Rebar**: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The RB2505 contract closed at 3,170 yuan, down 0.09% [2][43] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The HC2505 contract closed at 3,359 yuan, up 0.24% [2][43] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Traded in a wide range due to the resonance of the black metal sector. The silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 5984 yuan [2][48] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Saw a slight rebound due to information disturbances at the ore end. The manganese ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 6146 yuan [2][49] - **Coke**: There is a growing expectation of price increases, and it traded with a bullish bias. The J2505 contract closed at 1648 yuan, up 4.14% [2][52] - **Coking Coal**: Traded with a bullish bias. The JM2505 contract closed at 1008 yuan, up 1.97% [2][52] - **Steam Coal**: High - level inventory is putting pressure on prices. The ZC2504 contract had no trading volume yesterday [2][56] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remained stable. The FG505 contract closed at 1235 yuan, up 4.04% [2][60] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PX主力 contract closed at 6986 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **PTA**: With short - fiber production cuts, go long on PF and short on PTA. The PTA主力 contract closed at 4894 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **MEG**: Supply has contracted, and it has rebounded from the bottom. Go long on MEG and short on PTA. The MEG主力 contract closed at 4515 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of butadiene increased slightly, providing support for the market. [2][30] - **Asphalt**: Stabilized and traded in a range, with attention on inventory and inter - regional price differences. [2][32] - **LLDPE**: Traded in a short - term range, with pressure in the later period. [2][34] - **PP**: The price increased slightly, with average trading volume. [2][36] - **Caustic Soda**: Traded mainly in a range, with attention on export demand. [2][37] - **Log**: Traded in a volatile manner. [2][39] - **Methanol**: Traded under pressure. [2][41] - **Urea**: The near - month contract is strong, while the far - month contract is under pressure. [2][43] - **Styrene**: Stop - loss on short positions. [2][45] - **Soda Ash**: There were few changes in the spot market. [2][46] - **LPG**: Followed the oil price and traded in a narrow range. [2][47] - **PVC**: Traded in a low - level range. [2][50] Agricultural Products - **Fuel Oil**: Continued to rise at night, with short - term strength. [2][52] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rebounded following the crude oil price, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market continued to widen. [2][52] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread, 8 - 10 positive spread, and 10 - 12 negative spread positions. [2][53] - **Short - Fiber**: Maintenance was implemented, and the processing margin expanded. [2][56] - **Bottle Chip**: Traded in a range, with a weak structure. [2][56] - **Palm Oil**: There is no obvious inventory pressure for now, and the near - term is strong. [2][57] - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by US biodiesel policies and tariffs, the price of US soybean oil rose. [2][57] - **Soybean Meal**: The rise in US soybean oil stimulated the increase in US soybean prices, and the domestic soybean meal followed the rebound. [2][59] - **Soybean**: Rebounded following the soybean market. [2][59] - **Corn**: Traded in a range. [2][61] - **Sugar**: Traded with a bullish bias. [2][63] - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the impact of macro - events. [2][64] - **Egg**: Traded weakly. [2][66] - **Live Pig**: The expectation of price decline has been realized in advance. [2][67] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. [2][68] Trend Intensity - **Gold**: 0 [8] - **Silver**: - 1 [8] - **Copper**: 0 [12] - **Aluminum**: 0 [15] - **Alumina**: 0 [15] - **Zinc**: - 1 [17] - **Lead**: - 1 [20] - **Nickel**: 0 [26] - **Stainless Steel**: 0 [26] - **Tin**: 1 [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: - 1 [35] - **Polysilicon**: 1 [35] - **Carbonate Lithium**: - 1 [39] - **Iron Ore**: 0 [41] - **Rebar**: 1 [46] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: 1 [46] - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: 0 [51] - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: 0 [51] - **Coke**: 0 [54] - **Coking Coal**: 0 [54] - **Steam Coal**: 0 [59] - **Glass**: 1 [60] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: 1 [66] - **PTA**: 1 [66] - **MEG**: 1 [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump may announce tariff details on the evening of April 1st or April 2nd, and Morgan Stanley suggests focusing on whether the announcement can clarify tariff policies and whether the tariff increase is large enough to further deteriorate the economic outlook. "April 2nd" is not the "end of bad news" for US stocks [7]. - For US soybeans, the planting area is in line with expectations but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. In the medium - short term, the supply pressure is high, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, there is strong support. Attention should be paid to the weather in the US main producing areas and Trump's tariff policies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. Media reported that the White House is considering "comprehensive high tariffs" again, and Citi said it is a "once - in - 40 - year" opportunity for gold mines [15][17]. - **Silver**: Fell due to the influence of non - ferrous metals [15]. - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of US tariff hikes, the market is cautious. Trump will announce tariff details on April 2nd, and there are also some micro - level events such as changes in China's copper imports and problems at a Chilean smelter [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: In a wide - range shock. The electrolytic aluminum and alumina markets have various data changes, and there are also news about a Vietnamese electrolytic aluminum project and the extraction of Russian aluminum from LME - certified warehouses [23][26]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5, with the fastest manufacturing expansion speed in a year [27][28]. - **Lead**: There may be pressure above. China's March official manufacturing PMI was 50.5 [30]. - **Nickel**: Nickel ore supports the cost of the pyrometallurgical process, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Indonesian nickel iron project is gradually resuming production, and there are also policy adjustment signals for nickel resources [32][34]. - **Stainless steel**: In the short - term, the cost logic dominates, and there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term [33]. - **Tin**: Stabilized and rebounded [37]. - **Industrial silicon**: The disk is still in a weak pattern. The market has various data changes such as price, inventory, and profit [41]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today [41]. - **Carbonate lithium**: The proportion of second - registration without inspection is relatively high, and the disk may be under pressure. There are also news about lithium resource imports and the development of solid - state battery materials [44][47]. 3.2 Energy and Minerals - **Iron ore**: Weakly oscillating. China's March manufacturing PMI was 50.5% [49]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly. There are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [50][52]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly. Similar to rebar, there are changes in production, inventory, and demand data [51][52]. - **Silicon iron**: Weakly oscillating due to the weakening of raw material prices [12]. - **Manganese silicon**: In a wide - range shock as the main producing areas are gradually reducing production [12][56]. - **Coke**: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][59]. - **Coking coal**: The disk is oscillating weakly [12][60]. - **Steam coal**: The inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure [64]. 3.3 Chemicals and Others - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures market has price and trading volume changes, and the spot market has a general trading atmosphere [68]. - **Para - xylene**: Supported by cost, with the maintenance of CNOOC Huizhou, a strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - **PTA**: With the reduction of short - fiber and filament FDY production, a strategy of going long on PF and short on PTA is recommended [71]. - **MEG**: In a range - bound market, attention should be paid to the pressure at 4600 [71]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating weakly [12]. - **Synthetic rubber**: Narrowly oscillating in the short - term [12]. - **Asphalt**: Following the rise of crude oil, with a steady reduction in factory inventory [12]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillating in the short - term, and there is still pressure in the later period [12]. - **PP**: The price increased slightly, and the trading volume was average [12]. - **Caustic soda**: Mainly oscillating weakly, attention should be paid to export demand [12]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating weakly [12]. - **Log**: Weakly oscillating [12]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure [12]. - **Urea**: Oscillating, and the intraday trend depends on spot trading [12]. - **Styrene**: Close short positions [12]. - **Soda ash**: There is little change in the spot market [12]. - **LPG**: Following the rise of crude oil, but the 04 contract is still weak [14]. - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level [14]. - **Fuel oil**: Rose at night, and may turn significantly stronger in the short - term [14]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Rebounded following crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [14]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: The report is neutral, there are still concerns about tariffs, and the US soybeans closed down, so the Dalian soybean meal may follow the decline [14][66]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Fluctuating with the surrounding market and adjusting and oscillating [14][66]. - **Corn**: Oscillating [14][68]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the internal - external price difference [14][69]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - events [14][70]. - **Egg**: The weakness of the spot market exceeded expectations [14][72]. - **Live pig**: The expectation of secondary inventory accumulation is gradually forming [14][73]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the supply [14][74]. 3.5 Crude Oil - Trump is using sanctions and tariff threats to potentially hit the oil revenues of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The secondary tariff threats may have a large impact, and the US unilateral policy may subvert the G7 price - cap policy. On March 31st, crude oil futures closed higher [73][74].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 1 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/1 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | | | | | | | | 上证50股指期货 | 生猪 | 五债 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 沪深300股指期货 | 纯碱 | 原油 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 中证500股指期货 | 玻璃 | 十债 | | | | | 碳酸锂 | 烧碱 | 三十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 中证1000指数期货 | 豆粕 | 二债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 氧化铝 | 铝 | 燃油 | | | | | 焦煤 | 棉花 | 苹果 | | | 公司网址： | | 焦炭 | 沥青 | | | | www.ztqh.com | | 塑料 ...