1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. The Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined, and the capital market remained relatively stable. The Fed remained on hold and raised inflation expectations. The Middle East situation was tense, and inflation expectations increased. The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and the financial market stabilized. The main economic indicators in the first two months of this year improved significantly, and the national economy started well. The central bank has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The equity market volatility increased, which supported short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, the rise in price data and commodity prices pushed up inflation expectations, and the Fed's hawkish stance put pressure on long - term Treasury bond futures prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. The T2606 contract rose 0.02%. The TS2606 closed at 102.478, down 0.024 or - 0.02%; the TF2606 closed at 105.915, down 0.005 or 0.00%; the T2606 closed at 108.165, up 0.020 or 0.02%; the TL2606 closed at 111.24, up 0.530 or 0.48%. The trading volume of TS2606 was 45045, TF2606 was 66738, T2606 was 78058, and TL2606 was 84841 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.44bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 44.53bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield increased by 5bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 5bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp [2] 3.3 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 24, the central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan. On March 25, it will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 50 billion yuan, marking 13 consecutive months of increased roll - overs [3] - **Other News**: The central bank governor met with the CEO of DBS Group, and DBS will become the second RMB clearing bank in Singapore. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the work related to the relocation of central enterprises to Xiongan New Area. The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, and Trump said that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement [3] 3.4 Industry Information - **Shibor**: Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined. The overnight variety increased by 0.1BP to 1.318%; the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.5BP to 1.417%; the 14 - day variety decreased by 1.2BP to 1.512%; the 1 - month variety decreased by 0.55BP to 1.504%, reaching a new low since September 2022 [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields rose collectively. The 2 - year yield rose 4.32bp to 3.895%, the 3 - year yield rose 3.14bp to 3.896%, the 5 - year yield rose 1.98bp to 3.991%, the 10 - year yield rose 1.59bp to 4.362%, and the 30 - year yield rose 1.43bp to 4.929% [3]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: Overseas conflicts cause concerns about energy costs, and coking coal prices fluctuate accordingly. In the short term, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] Group 3 Market conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated, giving back some of the previous day's gains, with relatively sharp overall fluctuations. Some regional coking plants began to raise coke prices, and the plan was to be implemented on the 25th. The price of coking coal in the producing areas continued a slight upward trend [2] Impact of the Middle - East situation - The turmoil in the Middle - East has little direct impact on China's coking coal imports but has an indirect impact on prices. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about crude oil supply. Rising oil prices will generally increase corporate transportation and production costs. The increase in chemical product prices provides an upward impetus to the coal sector [2] Supply side - The overall upward impetus of the coking coal fundamentals is general. Coal mine production has returned to a high level, and the increase last week slowed down. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal remained relatively high, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase, with supply pressure still existing [2] Demand side - With the lifting of phased emission reduction restrictions, last week's hot metal output rebounded to 2.282 million tons, and there is still room for resumption of production in the near future. The purchasing sentiment of coking and steel enterprises for raw materials has improved [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Futures Closing Prices - **Domestic Futures**: On March 24, 2026, the AU2606 contract closed at 977.28 yuan/gram, up 37.28 yuan or 3.97% from March 23; the AG2606 contract closed at 17085 yuan/kilogram, up 1674 yuan or 10.86%; the PT2606 contract closed at 487.40, up 29.65 or 6.48%; the PD2606 contract closed at 359.50 yuan/gram, up 31.65 yuan or 9.65% [1] - **Foreign Futures**: The COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4474.90 on March 24, up 64.50 or 1.46% from March 23; the COMEX白银主力合约 closed at 71.45, up 2.13 or 3.07%; the NYMEX铂金主力合约 closed at 1920.50 dollars/ounce, up 46.10 or 2.46%; the NYMEX钮金主力合约 closed at 1444.50, up 5.50 or 0.38% [1] 2. Spot Prices - **International Spots**: London gold was at 4472.02 on March 24, up 64.67 or 1.47% from the previous value; London silver was at 71.28, up 2.17 or 3.13%; spot platinum was at 1892.00 dollars/ounce, down 1.00 or -0.05%; spot palladium was at 1393.00, down 55.00 or -3.80% [1] - **Domestic Spots**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D was at 977.99 yuan/gram on March 24, up 57.00 yuan or 6.19% from the previous value; the silver T+D was at 17166 yuan/kilogram, up 1897 yuan or 12.42%; the platinum 9995 was at 475 yuan/gram, up 15 yuan or 3.33% [1] 3. Basis - The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was at 0.71, up 19.72 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10%; the silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was at 81, up 223, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1] - London gold - COMEX gold was at - 9.13, up 4.16, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 75.60%; London silver - COMEX silver was at - 0.37, down 0.15, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 21.70% [1] 4. Ratios - COMEX gold/silver was at 62.63, down 0.99 or -1.56% from the previous value; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was at 57.20, down 3.79 or -6.22% [1] - NYMEX platinum/palladium was at 1.33, up 0.03 or 2.07%; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was at 1.36, down 0.04 or -2.90% [1] 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.39%, up 0.05 percentage points or 1.2% from the previous value; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.90%, up 0.07 percentage points or 1.8% [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was at 2.06%, up 0.05 percentage points or 2.5%; the US Dollar Index was at 99.23, up 0.07 or 0.07% [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was at 6.8926, up 0.0066 or 0.10% [1] 6. Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 106743 kilograms, down 3 kilograms or 0.00% from the previous value; the silver inventory was 365923, up 1374 or 0.38% [1] - COMEX gold inventory was 32016435, down 16108 or -0.05%; COMEX silver inventory was 331451807 ounces, down 638687 or -0.19% [1] - COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 16544929, up 29708 or 0.18%; COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 76548579, down 2650968 or -3.35% [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1053, up 0.29 or 0.03% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term, oscillating in the medium - term, and oscillating and slightly weaker intraday. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the bullish factors remain, and the ore price is running at a high level [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed significantly. The resumption of production by steel mills has improved ore demand, but the profit situation of steel mills is not good, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market need to be resolved. The subsequent incremental space is limited, and the positive effect is limited. The arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of miners have continued to increase. The supply of domestic mines has continued to increase, and it is expected that the ore supply will continue to be stable with a slight increase. Currently, the short - term shipments of Australian ore are restricted, and the previous bullish factors remain, supporting the high - level and slightly stronger operation of ore prices. However, under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of the ore are weakly stable, and the valuation is relatively high. The sustainability of the upward driving force is questionable, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, paying attention to the performance of steel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. The reference is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic that bullish factors remain and the ore price is running at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has little change. The resumption of production by steel mills has improved ore demand, but due to poor profitability of steel mills and unsolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, the subsequent incremental space is limited. The arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and miner shipments have continued to increase. The supply of domestic mines has increased, and the ore supply is expected to be stable with a slight increase. The short - term shipments of Australian ore are restricted, and previous bullish factors remain, supporting the high - level and slightly stronger operation of ore prices. However, the fundamentals are weakly stable, the valuation is relatively high, and the sustainability of the upward driving force is questionable. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

Group 1: Hot News - The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, including requirements on nuclear plans, missile capabilities, and regional issues. In exchange, Iran may get sanctions lifted, US support for civilian nuclear projects, and the cancellation of the "snap - back sanctions" mechanism. The US is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in March dropped to 51.4, a 11 - month low. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, while services PMI dropped to 51.1, also a 11 - month low [2] - The Eurozone's S&P Global Composite PMI in March fell from 51.9 in February to 50.5, the lowest since last May. Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, a 45 - month high, but services PMI dropped from 51.9 to 50.1, far below the expected 51.1. German and French services PMIs both declined significantly [3] - In February 2026, global crude steel production was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. From January to February 2026, it was 298.2 million tons, a 1.5% year - on - year decrease. In February, China's steel production was 76.09 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year decrease [3] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to adjust the minimum opening order volume of the apple futures 2605 contract to 2 lots starting from March 25, 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - session Performance - Key focus: urea, lithium carbonate, liquefied gas, crude oil, plastic [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials had a 2.54% increase, precious metals 25.11%, oilseeds and oils 8.89%, soft commodities 2.47%, non - ferrous metals 22.38%, coal, coke, steel and ore 10.37%, energy 8.45%, chemicals 15.74%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.92% [4] Group 3: Plate Positions - The document shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, Wind energy, Wind coal, coke, steel and ore, Wind non - ferrous metals, Wind commodity composite, Wind soft commodities, Wind oilseeds and oils, Wind precious metals, and Wind non - metallic building materials [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% daily, - 6.76% monthly, - 2.21% year - to - date; S&P 500 dropped 0.37% daily, - 4.69% monthly, - 4.22% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.02% daily, - 0.21% monthly, 0.28% year - to - date; 5 - year treasury bond futures had no daily change, - 0.08% monthly, 0.15% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index rose 2.43% daily, 14.90% monthly, 20.24% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.40% daily, 31.61% monthly, 53.88% year - to - date, etc. [6] - Other: US dollar index rose 0.07% daily, 1.62% monthly, 0.98% year - to - date; CBOE volatility rose 3.06% daily, 35.70% monthly, 80.27% year - to - date [6] Group 5: Main Commodity Trends - The document shows trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, CBOT corn, and also includes ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, as well as risk premiums [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trend judgments on various commodities based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and analyzes the market trends and investment strategies of multiple sectors including macro finance, black commodities, colored and new materials, agricultural products, and energy chemicals [2][4]. - The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, and investors need to pay close attention to the progress of the situation [5][6]. - The domestic real estate market shows signs of improvement in some areas, but the overall recovery is still facing challenges, and the impact on the demand for building materials needs to be further observed [13]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider a long - position strategy and pay attention to trading volume. The A - share market has a strong rebound, and the current position has a certain odds. The short - term winning rate may increase [12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market gradually has odds, and it can be considered to gradually go long on the bond market on the left side. The yield of bonds over 10 years has odds, but the thickness of the odds is not enough. Keep a steep thinking, and the yield of bonds under 10 years still has room to decline [13]. Black Commodities - **Steel and Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is expected to remain strong due to capital disturbances, but the upward space is limited. Hold the short - wide - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and consider short - selling at high prices later. The supply of steel mills is expected to increase, and the cost has strong support. The iron ore supply and demand are in a double - strong pattern, and the value of coal and coke has been re - evaluated [13][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The prices are affected by the geopolitical conflict, but the domestic supply is sufficient. If the emotional premium fades, the prices may fall back [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand relationship of silicon iron and manganese silicon is weakening, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The high - level shock of the double - silicon market is mainly affected by the energy sentiment, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The supply of soda ash has slightly declined due to short - term maintenance, and the supply of glass has the co - existence of cold - repair and ignition expectations. Pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the digestion of inventory [20]. Colored and New Materials - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate due to the impact of the geopolitical situation and inflation expectations. In the medium and long term, the tight supply of copper concentrate and the improvement of downstream demand will support copper prices [22]. - **Zinc**: The inventory of zinc ingots has decreased, and the operation idea is to be bearish with fluctuations, accompanied by small price rebounds [23]. - **Lead**: Observe the price rebound strength and treat it with a fluctuating idea. The supply of lead is relatively abundant, but the low - price reluctance of smelting enterprises and the increase in downstream procurement enthusiasm may reduce the inventory accumulation pressure [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it is affected by the mine - end disturbance and the macro - sentiment of the Middle East situation. If the situation eases, it may still perform well. The export permit issue of Zimbabwe's lithium ore may affect the supply in the second quarter [27]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon fluctuates, and pay attention to the opportunity to sell call options. Polysilicon fluctuates weakly, and operate with caution due to insufficient liquidity [28]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The cotton price fluctuates at a high level due to the impact of the external conflict and the repair of the internal - external price difference. The overall trend is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - situation. The domestic cotton market is in the de - stocking stage, and the consumption demand during the "Golden March and Silver April" is the key [32][33]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price fluctuates and rebounds due to the supply pressure and the increase in import costs. There are differences in the global sugar supply situation, and the price is affected by factors such as the production conversion of Brazilian sugarcane and the reduction of production in India and Thailand [34][35]. - **Eggs**: The consumption end supports the egg price to be strong in the short term, but the supply pressure is large, and the upward space of the spot price is limited. The futures near - month contract has greater upward pressure, and the far - month contract is also weak [36]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the futures price may also be strong. The low inventory and the demand for stocking support the price, and pay attention to the progress of warehouse - out in the production area and the actual sales in the sales area [38]. - **Jujubes**: The current view is to fluctuate weakly. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the consumption is difficult to increase significantly without external favorable factors. Pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the mentality of purchasers [39]. - **Pigs**: For futures, consider selling out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The supply pressure continues, the demand is limited, but the live - stock inventory is expected to be reduced, and the factors for the stabilization and recovery of the spot price are accumulating [40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the Middle East situation is still variable. If the Holgu Strait is navigable, the oil price will return to the fundamental trading. If an agreement cannot be reached, the oil price may continue to rise [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and fluctuate at a high level. The focus is on the resumption of navigation in the Holgu Strait, and the supply is still affected [44]. - **Plastics**: The price is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production reduction trend is expanding, and the short - term price may continue to be strong. The long - term trend depends on the end of the war [45]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is driven by the cost and may have upward space, but the fluctuation is high. Observe the energy price, war situation, and device changes [46]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may be slightly strong due to the geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East, but if the war eases, the price may回调. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty [47][48]. - **Caustic Soda**: Keep the idea of wide - range fluctuations within the day. The upward driving force comes from the increase in coal prices, the reduction in supply, and the increase in exports, while the downward driving force comes from the large number of warehouse receipts caused by the high futures premium [49]. - **Asphalt**: The industrial end is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the impact of the oil price and raw material import risks is dominant [50]. - **PVC**: The price may continue to be strong due to the upstream production reduction, but there is a risk of回调 if the market sentiment turns bad. The key is whether the upstream ethylene production reduction can continue and expand [51]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The cost end has weakened, but the supply contraction provides support. Take profit on the previous long positions opportunistically. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact, device maintenance progress, and the substantial recovery of polyester demand [52]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the Middle East situation is still variable. If an agreement is reached, it may return to the fundamental trading. It is expected to continue to weaken, but the price may be relatively stronger than that of crude oil [54]. - **Paper Pulp**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity sentiment. The spot sentiment has improved marginally, and the market is in a multi - empty game. Pay attention to the port inventory and the price increase and implementation of finished products [55]. - **Logs**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity sentiment. The demand is gradually recovering, and the cost supports the price. Pay attention to the port inventory and the impact of the US - Iran conflict [55]. - **Urea**: For far - month contracts, pay attention to the cost promotion and the increase in agricultural product prices. For near - month contracts, keep in line with the policy [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton are generally positive, with expected consumption of 2500 million tons and production of 2480 million tons in the 26/27 global market. In 2026, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by over 10%. The export of textiles and clothing from January to February increased by 17.6% year - on - year, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn also showed growth [4]. - The basis is positive as the spot price of 3128b cotton has an average national price of 16732, with a basis of 1377 (09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures [4]. - The inventory situation is mixed. The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 annual report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 829 million tons, which is a negative factor. However, the overall market has positive expectations due to factors like the traditional peak season and improved Sino - US relations [4]. - The market outlook is that the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract. The support level is around 15000, and the resistance level is around 15700. A trading strategy of range - bound operation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The ICAC predicts 2500 million tons of global consumption and 2480 million tons of production in the 26/27 season. In 2026, the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang may be reduced by over 10%. The USDA's March report shows a production of 2634.3 million tons, consumption of 2581.7 million tons, and an ending inventory of 1663.1 million tons in the 25/26 season. From January to February, the export of textiles and clothing was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. China imported 37 million tons of cotton and 29 million tons of cotton yarn during this period, with year - on - year increases of 41% and 8 million tons respectively. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 season report estimates a production of 664 million tons, an import of 140 million tons, a consumption of 760 million tons, and an ending inventory of 829 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of 3128b cotton has a national average of 16732, with a basis of 1377 (09 contract), indicating a premium over the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 annual report of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 829 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is long - biased, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The textile export from January to February was good. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", the reduction of US tariffs, and the improvement of Sino - US relations, it is beneficial for textile exports. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to the 09 contract. The support level is around 15000, and the resistance level is around 15700. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast** (March): In the 25/26 season, the total production is 2634.3 million tons, the total consumption is 2581.7 million tons, the total import is 956 million tons, the total export is 956.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 1663.1 million tons [10][11]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 26/27 season, the production is expected to be 2480 million tons (a 4% decrease), the consumption is 2500 million tons (a 0.7% decrease), the beginning inventory is 1677.7 million tons (a 5.6% increase), the ending inventory is 1660 million tons (a 1% decrease), the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 66.40% (a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease), the trade volume is 960 million tons (a 1% decrease), the yield per unit is 822 kg/hectare (a 1.6% decrease), and the planting area is 30.2 million hectares (a 0.7% decrease) [12]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 25/26 season, the production is 664 million tons, the import is 140 million tons, the consumption is 760 million tons, and the ending inventory is 829 million tons [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate with an upward bias. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month - on - month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month - on - month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January increased by 29% month - on - month. Subsequently, as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8810, with a basis of 216, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows slightly bearish results, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9590, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9200 - 9800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows slightly bearish results, and the subsequent supply pressure decreases. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10320, with a basis of 507, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production season is affected by tremors. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market had a volume - shrinking rebound, and the right - side signal for the future market is not clear. There is a possibility of a callback to build a bottom again. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3][9] - The implied volatility of stock index options declined, and the sentiment has not fully warmed up. It is recommended to continue holding the call option defense strategy [4][10] - The market priced in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the sentiment of the long - end of the bond market warmed up. The long - end of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and the short - end has relatively strong support [5][10] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the stock market had a volume - shrinking rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.59%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index rose 3.24%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by more than 36 billion compared with the previous day. Small and micro - cap stocks were strong. The weak - dollar and anti - inflation sectors were strong, and the energy sector pulled back [3][9] - Overseas risks have not subsided, the stock market volume shrank significantly, and the support of institutional funds for broad - based ETFs is uncertain. So, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3][9] Stock Index Options - On Tuesday, the underlying market showed a "W" - shaped trend. The total trading volume of financial options decreased significantly. The implied volatility of each variety decreased during the day but was still higher than last week's level. The PCR of positions among varieties was divergent, and the skew index mostly increased, indicating a cautious view of the future market [4][10] - Considering the high uncertainty of external events, it is risky to bet on medium - term short - volatility or reversal strategies too early. It is recommended to continue holding the call option defense strategy [4][10] Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, the long - and short - end trends of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to diverge. The prices of T and TL rose, while the prices of TF and TS fell. The T main contract opened higher and closed up after fluctuating [5][10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 3.35 billion yuan, and the capital market remained stable. The market priced in the easing of the US - Iran situation, and the long - end sentiment of the bond market warmed up [5][10] - The result of the US - Iran negotiation is undetermined. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns. The central bank will renew 500 billion MLF on the 25th, and the short - end has relatively strong support, while the long - end may be volatile [5][10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年3月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 白银 1、基本面：美股盘后，美伊停火及和谈预期显现，银价快速回升；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率 涨1.59个基点报4.362%；美元指数涨0.07%报99.23，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 6.8926；COMEX白银期货涨3.01%报71.44美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：白银期货17085，现货17034，基差-51，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：沪银期货仓单365923千克，增加1374千克；偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 ...