Macro News Summary - The State Administration for Market Regulation is accelerating the introduction of policies and measures to enhance quality financing and credit enhancement [5] - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly held a launch ceremony for cross-border payment [6] - The Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission is conducting a special action to rectify the abuse of AI technology [6] Industry Latest Developments - The International Solid-State Battery Technology Conference has opened, showcasing advanced materials and intelligent equipment, with related stocks including Winbond Technology (300457) and XianDao Intelligent (300450) [8] - The gaming industry is experiencing significant policy benefits, making the industry valuation attractive, with related stocks such as Giant Network (002558) and Zhangqu Technology (300315) [8] - The humanoid robot industry chain is gathering leading companies in Hangzhou to outline a new blueprint for intelligent manufacturing, with related stocks including Shenghong Technology (300476) and Wuzhou New Spring (603667) [8] Listed Company Focus - Jingye Intelligent (688290): Shareholder inquiry for transfer is preliminarily priced at 43.90 yuan per share, with a dividend plan adjusted to 10 pay 0.6453 yuan [10] - Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062): Has made small equity investments in several semiconductor IDM or design companies through CVC [10] - Aosaikang (002755): Announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Jiangsu Aosaikang Pharmaceutical's Methotrexate Injection has obtained a drug registration certificate [10] - Xinhau Optoelectronics (301051): Announced plans to transfer 100% equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary Anhui Xinguang to Luxshare Precision [10] Market Review and Outlook - On June 20, the market experienced a downward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, a decrease of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [12] - The market showed mixed performance with over 3600 stocks declining. Notable rebounds were seen in liquor stocks, while oil and gas stocks collectively adjusted [12] - The outlook suggests continued market consolidation, with a focus on the support level around 3332 for the Shanghai Composite Index. If this level holds, there may be short-term recovery opportunities in popular sectors [12]

每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜叶峰 ｜2025年6月23日星期一｜ NO.1 董方离任招商基金副总经理 6月19日，招商基金发布公告，董方因工作安排，于6月19日离任公司副总经理。 履历显示，董方1995年5月~2001年5月任职于交通银行深圳分行；2001年5月~2023年8月任职于招商银 行，曾任总行资产管理部副总经理、总行财富管理部副总经理、总行财富平台部副总经理。2023年8月 加入招商基金，自2023年9月28日起担任招商基金党委委员、副总经理。 NO.2 权益类新基金建仓加速 Wind数据显示，截至6月19日，6月份以来新成立的权益类基金已有47只。值得注意的是，多只成立时 间不足半个月的基金已步入建仓阶段，单位净值发生了变动。 以成立于6月4日的汇添富中证油气资源ETF发起式联接基金为例，6月6日，该基金A份额的单位净值出 现波动，从此前的1元变为1.0012元。 此外，首批新型浮动费率基金近期密集公告成立，其中比较早成立的东方红核心价值混合，在成立后的 一周内就已开始建仓。截至6月13日的净值数据显示，该基金A类份额净值为0.9985元。 NO.3 油气类产品业绩"超车"创新药主题 6月份以来， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a price forecast of $66 per barrel for 2025 [3][5]. Core Insights - The report indicates a trend towards a looser supply-demand balance for crude oil in 2025, with the EIA projecting a global oil supply surplus of approximately 820,000 barrels per day this year [4][19]. - The report highlights that the upstream sector is showing signs of recovery, with drilling day rates expected to increase as global capital expenditures rise [4][21]. - The refining sector is experiencing improved profitability due to rising product price spreads, although current levels remain low [4][21]. - The polyester sector is underperforming, with PTA and polyester filament profits declining, but a gradual improvement is anticipated as new capacities come online [4][21]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $77.01 per barrel, a 3.75% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 1.18% to $73.84 per barrel [4][25]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 421 million barrels, down 11.47 million barrels from the previous week, marking a 10% decline compared to the same period last year [4][27]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products increased to $11.58 per barrel, up $6.18 from the previous week [4]. - The report notes that while refining product spreads have improved, they remain at low levels, with expectations for gradual enhancement as economic recovery progresses [4][21]. Polyester Sector - The report states that PTA prices have turned from decline to increase, with the average price in East China reaching 5,084 RMB per ton, a 4.69% increase week-on-week [4]. - The overall performance of the polyester industry is described as average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely [4][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [4][21][22]. - It also suggests that the polyester sector may see long-term improvements, advocating for investments in leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][21][22].

美军炸弹落伊朗，A股周一谁笑谁哭？ 特朗普的社交媒体帖子宣告"和平时刻"降临，千里之外的A股股民账户却在为战争买单倒计时。 6月22日清晨，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体投下一枚"信息炸弹"：美军成功打击伊朗三处核心核设施，所有军机安全返航，文末不忘附上一句"现在是和平 的时刻"。 此次突袭堪称现代战争史上的"静默闪电战"。 从特朗普宣称"考虑动武"到炸弹落地，仅隔48小时，期间美军完成了一场精密部署：战机转入地下掩体、核潜艇悄然离港、隐身轰炸机进入待命状态。当 GBU-57"巨型钻地炸弹"砸向福尔多地下核设施时，伊朗防空系统竟未监测到任何交火信号。 这次行动标志着美国从中东代理人战争转向直接干预的战略转折。与6月13日以色列发动的"狮子勇气行动"不同，此次美军亲自摧毁伊朗核命脉，动用了 可穿透60米钢筋混凝土的终极武器。 美DKF 中专利多少 | 2017-01-11 | 11:20:50 | P 俄罗斯恐将出手! 发出"最强硬表态" 若哈梅内伊遇刺 将作出"非常负面"的反应 线不接受伊朗政权发生重建的仙鹰军用言潘多拉魔盒 時刻之战或扩大军军国战争? 河南家公用自由 發表可算產產品含分時買票， 伊朗良發型箱 "不 ...

Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3400 points, closing around 3360 points, with trading volume shrinking to around 1 trillion [3] - The support level is strong at 3340-3360 points, which corresponds to the lower boundary of a previous consolidation range and the 60-day moving average [3] - The ChiNext Index nearly breached 2000 points, indicating a growing demand for a rebound due to overselling [3] News Impact - The Middle East conflict, particularly between Iran and Israel, has led to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil experiencing significant increases, potentially exceeding $100 according to Goldman Sachs [4] - This situation presents a dual impact on A-shares: sectors like oil, gas, and gold may benefit, while export-reliant sectors such as electronics and home appliances could face challenges [4] - Domestic policies are supportive, with the launch of cross-border payment services and various financial opening measures announced by the central bank, which could benefit banks and digital currency sectors [4] Policy Environment - The central bank injected 1.4 trillion in liquidity but did not adjust the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), indicating a focus on targeted support rather than broad stimulus [5] - Policy easing in the real estate sector, such as the removal of purchase restrictions in Guangzhou, may provide some stimulus to building materials and home furnishings, but expectations for a significant sector rally should be tempered [5] - Key sectors like semiconductors and AI computing are receiving clear policy support, presenting opportunities during market pullbacks [5] Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of over 20 billion, while domestic institutional investors withdrew more than 60 billion, indicating a cautious market sentiment [6] - Despite the outflows, sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals attracted investment, with banks and utilities serving as safe havens [6] - The valuation advantage of A-shares remains, suggesting that capital may return once geopolitical tensions ease [6] Strategy for Next Week - A cautious approach is recommended, maintaining a position of around 50% to allow for flexibility [7] - Key focus areas include cross-border payment initiatives, oversold technology sectors, and defensive assets like oil and gold [7] - Monitoring trading volume and sector performance will be crucial for potential adjustments in positions [7]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 供应 03 需求 04 期货纸货 月差结构 现货基差 美国 中东 国内 化工需求 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 综述 资料来源：隆众资讯，Argus，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：地缘冲突加剧供应担忧，市场波动风险攀升 ◆ 我们的逻辑：6月14日-20日，受原油价格拉涨及供应预期下降支撑，国际液化气市场全面强势走高。国内方面，民用气 先扬后抑，周初消息面支撑市场走高，然而需求表现低迷，上游出货承压走低；醚后碳四则因下游MTBE开工攀升，周 内价格持续走高，截至6月20日，山东醚后 ...

Group 1: U.S. Military Action - The U.S. conducted a significant military operation against Iran on June 21, targeting three nuclear facilities, marking the most severe action since the 1979 Iranian Revolution [1][10] - President Trump announced the completion of the strikes, claiming that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility "no longer exists" and indicated that further targets could be struck if peace is not achieved [10][12] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the escalating conflict, global asset markets showed resilience, with major stock indices like Israel's TA35 and South Korea's KOSPI200 recording gains of over 3% from June 13 to June 20 [2][3] - Oil prices initially surged due to the conflict, with Brent crude rising by 11.48% and WTI by 8.82% during the same period, although they later stabilized [6][12] Group 3: Energy Market Implications - Analysts predict that the U.S. strikes may lead to increased oil prices and a potential panic in global markets, with concerns about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for energy transport [13][15] - The market consensus suggests that any military action by the U.S. will be short-lived, as President Trump aims to keep gasoline prices manageable [16][17] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a rare decline during the conflict, with spot gold prices dropping below $3,370, despite initial spikes above $3,400 [6][22] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Citigroup anticipate that geopolitical risk premiums for gold may re-emerge, with predictions of gold prices peaking between $3,100 and $3,500 in Q3 2023 before declining [26]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.51% to close at 3359.9 points [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only a few sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and electronics saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, and medical biology faced significant declines [2] - Notably, sub-sectors like stablecoins, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and solid-state batteries showed active performance [2] Company Highlights - A total of 208 listed companies released investor research summaries, with around 50 institutions reporting positive returns. Companies like Yishijingmi and Yuanhang Precision saw weekly gains exceeding 20%, while Lin Tai New Materials and others achieved gains over 10% [2] - The electronics sector garnered the highest attention, with companies like Lexin Technology receiving over 250 institutional inquiries, and Nanjiguang hosting more than 60 [2] Nanjiguang's Performance - Nanjiguang's stock surged due to its status as the only certified backlight module supplier for Nintendo, coinciding with the impressive sales of the newly launched Switch 2, which sold over 3.5 million units within four days of release [2][4] - The successful mass production of the Switch 2 project validates Nanjiguang's core technological capabilities and quality control systems, potentially driving further orders in various sectors including gaming and automotive displays [4] PCB Market Insights - The PCB sector has shown strong performance, with CITIC PCB reporting a cumulative increase of 6% in stock prices. The market is expected to enter a new phase of capacity expansion driven by demand from emerging markets and AI technology [4] - Companies like Huidian and Shennan Circuit confirmed high capacity utilization rates, with expectations of increased demand for high-performance PCB products due to the accelerating evolution of AI technology [5] Energy Market Impact - The Middle East situation has influenced global energy market trends, with companies like Jereh and Huarong focusing on strategic market expansions in the region. Jereh plans to explore more collaboration opportunities while Huarong emphasizes the long-term nature of oil investments despite short-term price fluctuations [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment sector [1] Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with equipment manufacturers being the primary beneficiaries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to establish a standard system for solid-state batteries by 2025, with significant investments already made in R&D [2] - The forklift industry shows strong growth, with May sales reaching 123,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The demand for large forklifts is particularly strong, indicating a robust outlook for leading companies in Q2 [3] - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, with May excavator sales at 18,202 units, a 2.12% increase year-on-year. The sector is currently undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [4] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Equipment - Solid-state battery commercialization is accelerating, benefiting equipment suppliers. Key players include: - **Xian Dao Intelligent**: Offers a complete solution for solid-state battery manufacturing [2] - **Yinghe Technology**: Recently delivered core solid-state battery equipment to a leading domestic battery company [2] - **Huaya Intelligent**: Signed an agreement for a 200MWh solid-state battery production line project [2] - Investment recommendations focus on solid-state battery equipment suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and laser welding equipment manufacturers [2] Forklift Industry - May forklift sales reached 123,000 units, with domestic sales at 79,000 units (up 9%) and exports at 44,000 units (up 17%). The demand for large forklifts is particularly strong, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in Q2 [3] - Key players include Anhui Heli, Hangcha Group, and Zhongli Group, which are actively pursuing smart logistics solutions [3] Engineering Machinery - May excavator sales were 18,202 units, with a slight year-on-year increase. The sector is seeing a recovery in non-excavator sales and exports, with a 9% increase in export value for engineering machinery in the first five months of 2025 [4] - Recommended stocks include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, as the sector is currently undervalued [4] General Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong growth potential in the solid-state battery and engineering machinery sectors, highlighting the importance of technological advancements and market demand [2][4]

据了解，驻国家管网集团纪检监察组已连续四年开展案件质量评查及上一轮发现问题整改"回头看"。针 对评查中发现的线索处置、措施使用、定性量纪、处分执行等工作中的薄弱环节开展监督检查、对下指 导，对重大疑难案件进行提级审查审理。 除年度评查外，驻国家管网集团纪检监察组还利用信息化系统进行案件集中统一管理，案件审理人员可 通过信息系统及时调取所属单位纪委已办结案卷材料开展评查，实现动态监管。 为深化案件质量评查成果运用，驻国家管网集团纪检监察组坚持个案督导、类案指引、实务问答相结 合，推动"发现一个问题"向"解决一类问题"拓展。 驻国家管网集团纪检监察组制定涵盖34项监督内容的"清单式"监督检查表，围绕举报受理、线索处置、 措施适用、定性量纪等环节开展全覆盖监督检查。今年以来，已赴14家所属单位纪委开展监督检查，共 发现和纠正事实证据、定性处理、处分执行等问题49项。 开展案件质量评查是保障和提高案件质量的重要举措。不久前，驻国家管网集团纪检监察组向30家所属 单位纪委一对一反馈2024年案件质量评查结果并指出问题，督促全面整改。 "去年11月至今年1月，我们对所属单位纪委2023年11月以来办结的案件进行质量评查， ...