2025 年 6 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 服务 PMI 预警滞涨风险 美国 5 月服务业 PMI 意外收缩，需求大幅走弱，物价扩张速度创 22 年以来新 高，经济面临滞涨风险。制造业 PMI 收缩幅度扩大，交付时间变长，关税同时对 需求和供应链产生扰动。进口指数大幅下跌，自有库存转向收缩，美国企业为规 避关税而提前囤货的影响可能逐渐消退。下半年美国经济预计将小幅滞涨。未来 3 个月，政策环境仍不友好，白宫可能延续施压交易对手，美联储可能继续暂停 降息。第 4 季度政策环境可能改善，美国与主要贸易伙伴可能达成协定，通胀见 顶回落，美联储重启降息，白宫重心转向减税去监管。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 敬请参阅尾页之免责声明 请到彭博 (搜索代码: RESP CMBR )或 http:// www.cmbi.com.hk 下载更多招银国际环球市场研究报告 1 MN 服务业 PMI 近 1 年来首次收缩，价格指数扩张幅度创 2 ...

怎么说呢，如果你今年五一恰好路过武汉，可能会被这座城市的新玩法惊到——游客不再扎堆黄鹤楼或 户部巷，反而挤爆了东湖边的咖啡馆、高达模型店，甚至相机租赁行。这背后藏着的，可不止是假期消 遣那么简单。 东湖咖啡：一杯饮品的尽头是情绪价值 "三十公园"的店员大概从没想过，自家咖啡馆会成为比东湖游船更热门的打卡点。假期下午三点，所有 面湖的外摆区座位早已被占满，大三学生小刘和闺蜜举着手机自拍，背景是波光粼粼的湖面。"从长沙 专门过来就为这一杯，你懂的。"她指了指桌上的冰美式，"坐在这儿发呆两小时，比逛景点治愈多 了。" 这种"为氛围买单"的现象在东湖沿岸已成常态。几乎每家临湖咖啡馆都化身社交空间——年轻人带着外 地朋友来"叙旧局"，情侣对着落日摆拍，甚至有人独自抱着电脑工作，图的就是"湖边办公"的仪式感。 一位店主透露："有人甚至提前一周预订座位，就为了五一能坐在最靠水的位置。" 江西姑娘小叶的行程堪称当代游客样本——刚下高铁就直奔街道口取预订的大疆口袋云台相机。"一天 租金60块，比买一台划算多了。"她晃了晃手里的小机器，"明天草莓音乐节拍vlog就靠它了。" 高达基地与LABUBU玩偶：成年人的童心经济学 武汉天 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Huatie is planning to issue shares overseas (S shares) and list on the Singapore Stock Exchange to enhance its international strategy and expand its business in Southeast Asia [1][2][3] Company Overview - Hainan Huatie was established in 2008 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2015, primarily engaged in the rental and service of engineering and intelligent computing equipment [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Hainan Huatie's domestic revenue reached 5.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.17%, while its overseas revenue was 1.31 million yuan with a gross margin of -35.63% [4][5] - The company reported a net profit of 1.91 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year growth of 21.72% [1][10] - For the full year of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.17 billion yuan, marking a historical high, but net profit decreased by 24.49% to 605 million yuan [7][10] Debt Situation - As of Q1 2025, Hainan Huatie's debt ratio reached 72.32%, an increase of 23.76 percentage points over four years [12] - The debt ratio has shown a consistent upward trend, rising from 48.56% in Q1 2021 to 72.95% by the end of 2024 [11][12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has established a store in Hwaseong, South Korea, as part of its overseas strategy [3][5] - Hainan Huatie has signed a total service amount of 6.67 billion yuan in computing services by the end of Q1 2025, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing its capabilities in the intelligent computing sector [10]

就业岗位直达"指尖"，打造"十五分钟就业服务圈"，积极完善就业主责部门、行业主管部门及街乡、市 场化机构"三驾马车"同向发力的大就业格局……日前，本市首场"稳就业"主题调研采访走进位于朝阳区 的中国社会科学院大学望京校区和美团总部，了解朝阳区及相关高校、企业在促就业方面的成功经验。 高校 持续加强校企合作 提供高水平供需对接平台 中国社会科学院大学2023级金融专业研究生李子莘回忆起自己的实习经历时，感触颇深。通过校企合作 项目，去年她在中铁建金融租赁有限公司开启了为期三个月的实习之旅。 "初入公司，面对农机领域租赁业务这一全新领域，快速学习成为我的首要任务。带教老师作为行业骨 干，其逻辑清晰、数据翔实的指导，让我对业务有了深入理解；工作之余，我充分利用学校和网络资 源，阅读专业书籍充实知识储备；与一同实习的同学交流协作时，我也在取长补短中不断进步。"李子 莘说，在具体工作中，她负责整理农机领域500强清单数据，这不仅锻炼了她的数据分析能力，也深刻 体会到团队协作的力量。同时，撰写调研报告和行业分析的任务，有效提升了自己的文字表达能 力，"这段实习经历意义非凡，让我将课堂知识与实践融会贯通，也让我在专业技能和 ...

同一名新毕业大学生租赁青年公寓原则上不超过6年。提供梯度租金折扣。具体为：租赁期第1-2、3- 4、5-6年分别按项目备案租金的60%、70%、80%缴纳租金。项目备案租金均价109.5元/建筑平方米· 月。以一套36平方米的一居室为例，租赁期第1-2、3-4、5-6年租金分别2365元/月、2759元/月和3153元/ 月。 青年公寓意向登记时间为2025年6月5日9:00至2025年6月11日17:00，有意向的新毕业大学生可通过北京 保障房中心有限公司网站或APP进行意向登记。具体信息可登录海淀区政府网站查看《关于开展海淀区 2025年青年公寓配租意向登记的公告》（网址： 新京报讯（记者吴为）6月5日记者从海淀区获悉，海淀区近日发布《开展2025年青年公寓专项配租意向 登记公告》，正式启动青年公寓试点工作。试点选定"寓见西山"项目922套房源，解决青年人才住房需 求，为青年人才提供优质、便捷、可负担的租赁房源。 "寓见西山"项目922套房源，涵盖一居室（760套）、二居室（145套）和三居室（17套），建筑面积28 平方米/套至102平方米/套不等。项目配备智能家电和木质环保家具，并预装智能门锁、WiF ...

Core Insights - The aviation industry is facing significant challenges in 2025 due to engine issues and parts shortages, leading to record-high grounded aircraft numbers [1][2] - Willie Walsh, the IATA director general, highlighted the ongoing disappointment among airlines regarding delayed aircraft deliveries and engine-related operational disruptions [1][5] Group 1: Engine Issues - Nearly 70% of grounded aircraft globally are equipped with Pratt & Whitney's PWG1000 series engines, particularly affecting the A320neo fleet [2] - The PW1100 engine has been flagged for safety concerns, requiring extensive inspections that could lead to an average of 350 aircraft being grounded daily from 2024 to 2026 [2][3] - In May 2025, domestic airlines reported an average of 4.4 days of grounded aircraft, with PW1100-equipped planes averaging 16.2 days, significantly higher than the average [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Delivery Delays - The backlog of undelivered aircraft has surged to over 17,000 units, double the pre-pandemic average, with delivery times potentially extending to 14 years [5][6] - Airlines are experiencing increased rental costs due to limited aircraft supply, with narrow-body aircraft rental rates rising by 20-30% compared to 2019 [7] - The supply chain issues are expected to persist through 2025 and possibly into the next decade, impacting airline operations and profitability [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - While some airlines face challenges due to aircraft shortages, the delays in new aircraft deliveries may alleviate overcapacity in the domestic market [6] - Aircraft leasing companies are benefiting from the situation, with Avolon reporting a 36% increase in net profit in Q1 2023 [9] - The delays in Boeing and Airbus deliveries are providing opportunities for domestic manufacturers like COMAC, which plans to ramp up production of the C919 aircraft [9]

A股收评：创业板指涨1.17% 算力板块走强 金十数据6月5日讯，今日A股三大指数延续震荡上行趋势，呈现结构性分化。截止至今日收盘，沪指涨 0.23%，深成指涨0.58%，创业板指涨1.17%。沪深两市全天成交额1.29万亿，较上个交易日放量1374 亿。盘面上，全市场上涨个股超2600只。券商股尾盘异动拉升，华鑫股份一度涨停。兵装重组概念表现 亮眼，华强科技大涨13%，建设工业、东安动力、湖南天雁纷纷涨停。算力租赁板块走强，汇金股份、 青云科技、大位科技等多股涨停。半导体板块午后冲高，至正股份、德明利涨停，源杰科技、芯原股份 跟涨。下跌方面，大消费板块集体回调，美容护理、饮料制造、食品加工制造等板块跌幅居前，拉芳家 化、润本股份、水羊股份均跌超9%，盐津铺子、南侨食品、新乳业、天然乳业跟跌。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share computing power leasing sector experienced a significant rise in the afternoon, with major companies showing strong performance [1] - Dwei Technology reached the daily limit increase, indicating strong investor interest and confidence [1] - Huijin Co., Ltd. saw an increase of over 12%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company [1] - Kehua Data rose by more than 9%, contributing to the overall upward trend in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Parallel Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Xiechuang Data also experienced gains of over 5%, showcasing a broad-based rally in the computing power leasing market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The computing power leasing concept has experienced a significant rebound, with major companies like Dawi Technology hitting the daily limit increase in stock price, following similar movements from other firms in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Dawi Technology saw a sharp increase in stock price, reaching the daily limit [1] - Other companies such as Hubei Broadcasting, Qingyun Technology, Hongjing Technology, Aofei Data, Xiechuang Data, and Huafu Fashion also experienced stock price increases [1] Group 2: Policy Influence - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aimed at improving the efficiency and service level of public computing resources [1] - The plan outlines six key areas and 16 specific tasks to promote high-quality development in computing power [1]

6月5日，三大指数集体高开，盘中创业板指走高，港股方面，恒生科技指数涨幅走阔。A股、港股云计 算概念双双走强。指数方面，中证沪港深云计算产业指数(931470.CSI)上涨1.29%，该指数成分股中， 微盟集团上涨超7%，深信服与阿里巴巴-W上涨超3%，中际旭创上涨近3%。 相关ETF方面，云计算ETF沪港深（517390）持续走强，截至发稿上涨1.3%，成交额为501.09万元。截 至6月5日，该ETF最新流通份额为2.88亿份，最新流通规模为3.11亿元，值得一提的是，云计算ETF沪 港深（517390）近5、10、20、60日净流额均为同标的第一。 开源证券认为，2025年云计算行业将进入全新发展阶段，市场规模预计突破1.17万亿元，同比增长 40.6%。这一增长主要受益于AI技术的飞跃发展和政策支持。随着云原生技术的成熟，云技术将从粗放 向精细转型，企业用户对云服务的需求将从IaaS向SaaS上移，推动云应用从互联网向行业生产渗透。特 别是在政务、金融、交通等关键基础设施领域，云计算将结合5G、AI、大数据等技术，帮助企业完成 数字化转型。此外，混合云和云原生安全能力的发展也将为行业带来新的增长点。 ...