Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent price increases across various segments of the photovoltaic industry, particularly in polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost recovery efforts [5][10][19]. Polysilicon Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported at 42.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 40.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 40.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The overall transaction prices for polysilicon have stabilized around 40 RMB/KG, with an increase in acceptance of price hikes by crystal pulling factories [6]. - As of this week, the polysilicon industry inventory stands at over 370,000 tons, gradually shifting towards crystal pulling factories due to prior stockpiling by specialized silicon wafer manufacturers [7]. - Looking ahead to August, with rising polysilicon prices, some second and third-tier manufacturers in Xinjiang and Qinghai may prepare to resume production, while leading manufacturers also plan to increase output [8][9]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported at 1.10 RMB/piece for M10, 1.45 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.25 RMB/piece for G12R [10]. - The silicon wafer manufacturers have reduced their operating rates, leading to a balanced supply-demand relationship and noticeable inventory depletion [11]. - Manufacturers with significant low-cost silicon material stock are experiencing profit recovery, and some plan to increase production next month [12]. - The inventory of silicon wafers has entered a depletion phase, with most manufacturers adhering to guided pricing [13]. Battery Cell Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for M10 single crystal TOPCon battery cells are at 0.27 RMB/W, while G12 and G12R cells are at 0.275 RMB/W [16]. - The price increase of 18% for 183N cells is attributed to rising overseas demand, while the price transmission from upstream to downstream remains slow due to intense negotiations [17]. - As of this week, specialized battery cell manufacturers have seen a decrease in inventory, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [18]. - The price increase for N-type battery cells has been successfully transmitted, but future sustainability depends on the price transmission from modules [19]. Module Segment - The mainstream transaction prices for 182mm double-sided double-glass TOPCon modules are at 0.67 RMB/W, and for 210mm double-sided double-glass HJT modules at 0.72 RMB/W [20]. - Leading manufacturers are maintaining a favorable order intake, while second and third-tier manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [21]. - There is an expectation of a gradual price increase of 0.02-0.03 RMB/W from leading manufacturers, while second and third-tier manufacturers are also slightly following suit [22]. - The cost transmission and export tax rebate policies are anticipated to facilitate smoother price adjustments in overseas markets compared to domestic ones [23].

2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

硅业分会单晶硅片周评：本周硅片价格继续上行 《科创板日报》24日讯，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布单晶硅片周评。本周硅片价格继续上行。 其中，N型G10L单晶硅片(182*183.75mm/130μm)成交均价在1.1元/片，环比上周上涨4.76%；N型G12R 单晶硅片(182*210mm/130μm)成交均价在1.25元/片，环比上周上涨8.70%；N型G12单晶硅片(210*210 mm/130μm)成交均价在1.44元/片，环比上周上涨6.67%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silicon wafers continues to rise due to positive market sentiment driven by supply constraints and increased demand from downstream battery manufacturers [1][2] Group 1: Silicon Wafer Prices - The average transaction price for N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*183.75mm/130 μm) is 1.1 yuan per piece, up 4.76% week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for N-type G12R monocrystalline silicon wafers (182*210mm/130 μm) is 1.25 yuan per piece, up 8.70% week-on-week [1] - The average transaction price for N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers (210*210mm/130 μm) is 1.44 yuan per piece, up 6.67% week-on-week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in silicon wafer prices is attributed to rising raw material prices for polysilicon, leading manufacturers to raise prices amid increased costs [1] - A slight decrease in market supply is noted as wafer manufacturers begin to implement production cut plans [1] - Downstream battery manufacturers are starting to accept price increases for silicon wafers, resulting in an increase in purchasing orders [1] Group 3: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate in the industry remains stable compared to last week, with two leading companies operating at 50% and 40% capacity [1] - Integrated companies are operating at 50%-80% capacity, while other companies are also in the 50%-80% range [1] Group 4: Downstream Price Movements - The mainstream price for battery cells is 0.26-0.27 yuan/W, up 0.02 yuan/W week-on-week [2] - The mainstream price for components is 0.66-0.67 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W week-on-week [2] - Future trends in silicon wafer prices will largely depend on how much downstream components can absorb the increased costs [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 14.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 85% [1] - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.65 billion kW, with solar power capacity at 1.1 billion kW, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.2% [1] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours compared to the same period last year, totaling 1504 hours [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Canadian Solar has established a silicon company to enhance its vertical integration and cost control in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The new company, Uratqi Haoxi Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., was registered on June 17 with a capital of 1 million yuan and is fully controlled by Canadian Solar [2] - Highview Solar has commenced mass production of its 2 GW BC module project, achieving an efficiency of 24.6% [3] - The BC modules utilize cells from Aiko Solar and feature proprietary packaging technology to enhance efficiency and durability [3] - Highview Solar plans to build an additional 1 GW BC module production line in Yibin, Sichuan, which has completed environmental assessment [3] Group 3: Investment Decisions - Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has decided to suspend further investment in its 10 GW N-type ultra-high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon wafer project due to market conditions [4][5] - The company has already invested approximately 340 million yuan into its subsidiary, Anhui Fuxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which has established a production capacity of about 1.5 GW N-type wafers [5] - The decision to halt additional investment is based on price fluctuations in the silicon wafer industry and a temporary mismatch in overall photovoltaic market capacity [5]

7月24日，国金证券新能源与电力设备行业首席分析师姚遥在光伏行业供应链发展(大同)研讨会上表 示，在光储系统成本大幅下降的背景下，预计光伏新增装机区域分布将持续多元化。中国、欧洲、美国 三大传统市场因体量较大，装机增速将逐渐平稳，而中东、中亚、南亚、拉丁美洲、非洲等地区因能源 转型、资源优势等因素，有望在低基数下实现高速增长。预计2025年光伏新增装机维持5%—10%的增 速，光伏组件需求有望得以提升。(中证金牛座) ...

四是响应国家增量政策，助力信心提振。 一方面，精准服务上市公司回购增持，助力稳定市值管理、 增强市场信心。自2024年9月24日以来，上市公司累计公告与广东工行合作回购增持贷款20笔、金额40 亿元，均位于同业领先位置。另一方面，围绕科技型企业推动科创债，2025年落地全国首批、广东区域 （不含深圳）首单10亿元科技创新债券，为科技型企业高质量发展注入金融新动能。 （文章来源：新华财经） 一是积极投早投小投硬科技。与工银投资联动，计划推动在广州、东莞、珠海"一省三地"设立7支、总 规模超120亿元的AIC股权直投基金矩阵，涵盖人工智能、机器人、新能源、集成电路等广东重点产 业。目前，已经落地2支合计规模31亿元的基金，今年6月落地投资国内头部光掩模企业，广东工行投资 金额3.4亿元。 二是以"并购+"服务，支持科技型制造企业强链补链。广东工行聚焦优势制造业横向扩张与纵向整合， 支持"链主"企业强化产业链控制力。如，2018年至2025年3月，广东工行深度参与TCL科技四次重大产 业转型及强链补链收购，累计提供超200亿元融资，助力企业巩固在显示面板领域的领先地位，以及拓 展光伏新能源布局。截至6月末，广东工行 ...

Group 1 - The new materials industry is experiencing high demand from downstream sectors and opportunities for substitution, with leading companies expected to enter a rapid growth phase due to high technological barriers [1] - New types of glass and carbon fiber are benefiting from sustained demand from high-growth downstream sectors such as renewable energy, with short-term support for the electronic yarn market coming from high-end products and low dielectric fields [1] - The fiberglass industry is seeing a demand boost from wind power, leading to inventory reduction and price increases, while the photovoltaic glass market is stabilizing with a slowdown in inventory growth [1] Group 2 - The New Materials 50 ETF (159761) tracks the New Materials Index (H30597), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies from the A-share market involved in advanced steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and inorganic non-metallic materials [1] - The index emphasizes technological innovation and industrial upgrading, showcasing high growth potential and industry representation [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI New Materials Theme ETF Initiated Link A (014908) and Guotai CSI New Materials Theme ETF Initiated Link C (014909) [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report highlights that a new round of "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" is about to be released, which will accelerate capacity structure optimization in the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on cyclical recovery and supply-side optimization [6] - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost investment opportunities in various segments of the chemical industry, particularly in civil explosives, all-steel tires, cement, and specialty chemicals [6] - The TDI market is experiencing upward price pressure due to Covestro's forced production halt following an electrical fire, with TDI prices rising to 14,913 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30.82% increase compared to the previous month [6] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Juhua Co., Haohua Technology, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, Hubei Yihua, and Tongyi Zhong [6] - In the civil explosives and all-steel tire sectors, companies like Sailun Tire, Linglong Tire, and Wind God Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the unmanned mining truck market, with a projected sales penetration rate increasing from approximately 6% in 2024 to over 50% by 2030, indicating explosive growth [10][12] Group 3: Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic market for unmanned mining trucks is entering a rapid scaling phase, with a compound annual growth rate of 305.8% expected from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The global market for unmanned mining solutions is projected to grow from 700 million USD in 2024 to 8.1 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.0% [12] - The report indicates that traditional mining trucks are in a highly competitive field, with major international players holding over 90% of the market share, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic companies to replace traditional models with unmanned solutions [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of the equity market, particularly focusing on the growth style represented by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, which has led to increased trading activity in related ETF products [1][2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF (588090) saw a significant trading volume of 397 million yuan on July 24, 2025, with a remarkable week-on-week increase of 254%, and attracted a net inflow of 234 million yuan, marking a new high for the year [1] - Over a longer time frame, there has been a strategic accumulation of funds in the hard technology sector, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF (588090) experiencing increased trading volume for three consecutive trading days and a total of 730 million yuan in net inflows since July [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETF (588090) closely tracks the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which consists of 50 representative securities from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, reflecting the performance of the most representative companies in the sector [1] - The semiconductor industry accounts for over 60% of the index's composition, with medical devices, software development, photovoltaic equipment, and chemical pharmaceuticals as secondary heavyweights, showcasing a strong focus on new economy and hard technology characteristics [1] - The ETF's connected fund, Huatai-PB Sci-Tech Board 50 ETF Connected Y (022950), is among the first index funds included in the personal pension product directory, with its fund share reaching 6.1 million, an increase of 5.6 million shares since the end of 2024 [1][2] Group 3 - According to Zhongtai Securities, 2025 is expected to witness a surge in technological scenarios, supported by comprehensive policy coverage, establishing a solid medium to long-term growth foundation for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - Huatai-PB Fund has over 18 years of experience in ETF operations and has created a complete matrix of Sci-Tech broad-based ETF products, which are expected to expand rapidly as market sentiment improves [2] - The recent policy developments, including the establishment of the Sci-Tech Growth Tier, aim to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the system, positioning the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as a key area for investors to capture structural opportunities [2][3]