金融人必备！股神思维 + 专属助手 华尔街的豪赌：构建巨额关税退款索赔市场 一场可能迫使美国政府退还数百亿美元关税的法律对决，正在催生一个独特的投机市场。 美国财政部长贝森特近日在接受媒体采访时公开承认， 如果最高法院裁定特朗普政府的部分关税为非法，美国财政部可能将不得不退还"大约一半的关税"，他 将此形容为对财政部的"可怕"打击。 当被问及政府是否准备好退款时，贝森特回应称："如果法院这么说，我们就必须这么做。" 这一表态的背景，是两家下级法院已裁定特朗普政府援引《国际紧急经济权力法》征收部分关税缺乏法律授权。目前，此案已上诉至最高法院，定于11月5日 举行口头辩论。 据美国海关与边境保护局数据，截至今年8月， 争议关税已征收超过700亿美元 ，而如果裁决最终推翻该政策，其引发的连锁反应将对美国财政和进口企业产 生深远影响。 面对巨大的不确定性，市场并未等待。 从华尔街投行的结构化产品到线上预测平台，一个围绕关税裁决结果的"定价"机制已然形成。投资者正用真金白银押注 美国财政部是否会执行一次史无前例的"关税大退款"。 散户的算盘：预测市场上微小的赌注 与机构投资者动辄数百万美元的定制化交易不同，个人投资者则 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura, Japan's largest brokerage and investment bank, reported a surprising 6% decline in net profit for the second fiscal quarter ending in September, with a net profit of 92.1 billion yen (approximately 610.82 million USD), down from 98.4 billion yen in the same period last year. Despite this decline, analysts believe that the new economic stimulus policy being prepared by Japan's Prime Minister, which exceeds last year's scale of 13.9 trillion yen, could serve as a significant catalyst for the Japanese stock market, potentially leading to a new phase of performance and valuation expansion for Nomura [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nomura's wholesale business showed the strongest performance, achieving a substantial year-on-year growth of 43% in the first half of the fiscal year, primarily driven by record revenues from stock trading, coinciding with a significant recovery in global stock market activities and IPO financing. The Nikkei 225 index has surpassed the 50,000 mark, with a year-to-date increase of 25%, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [2]. - Despite the record total assets under management reaching 101.2 trillion yen, the pre-tax profit from Nomura's investment management division declined by 4% year-on-year, contributing to the overall net profit decrease [2]. - The latest performance highlights a strong recovery in Nomura's wholesale business, which had been negatively impacted by market volatility in previous years but has shown more consistent profits in recent quarters due to a robust bull market in global stocks [2]. Group 2: Business Segments - Nomura's wholesale business consists of two main segments: Global Markets, which provides market-making, sales, and trading services related to fixed income and equity markets, and Investment Banking, which offers M&A advisory, equity financing, debt financing, and various risk/solution services to corporate, financial, and public sector clients [3]. - Following the end of the "investor wait-and-see period" triggered by U.S. President Trump's tariff announcements, the impact that previously suppressed large M&A transactions and IPO activities has significantly diminished, leading to a rise in advisory fees for Nomura's investment banking business as transaction activities rebound [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The economic stimulus policies led by Prime Minister Kishi are expected to be significantly beneficial for the Japanese stock market and particularly favorable for brokerage, asset management, and investment banking sectors, where Nomura is the largest player. The ongoing "super bull market" in Japanese stocks, driven by these policies, is anticipated to lead to substantial growth in brokerage and investment banking performance and transaction volumes, with continued recovery in equity financing and M&A activities [4]. - The recent "Sanae trade" phenomenon reflects market expectations for the revival of "Abenomics," characterized by strong fiscal stimulus, industrial support, and a cautious stance on tightening monetary policy, leading to significant volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets [5].

"从延长产业链到切入新赛道，并购重组已然成为上市公司实现高质量发展的'助推器'。"近日，招商证 券投资银行委员会并购业务部负责人王大为在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，当前并购业务的机遇主要 来自政策红利与产业升级的共振。 中小市值企业并购领跑 自去年9月"并购六条"实施以来，全市场新增重大资产重组交易超过200单。政策工具创新也在释放市场 活力，已有案例显示，股份对价分期支付、简易审核程序等机制显著提升了交易效率，特别是市值超百 亿元且信息披露优质的公司享受到了审核流程精简的红利。 在王大为看来，当前A股并购交易的驱动因素主要有三类：一是战略转型，传统企业通过并购切入新赛 道；二是产业链延伸，上市公司通过横向或纵向整合强化核心竞争力；三是培育第二增长曲线，通过注 入优质资产拓展盈利增长点。 根据公开市场数据，按证监会二级行业统计，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业上市公司的重大资产 重组数量居于首位。不同规模的上市公司均有参与，但中小型市值企业（20亿—120亿元）表现得尤为 活跃，"因为既有扩张需求，又具备灵活决策机制"。 基于实操经验，王大为还勾勒了"最受买方青睐的资产"画像——首先，在行业属性上，高技术装备 ...

Economic Growth Overview - The U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2% in Q1 and 1.8% in Q2, resulting in a solid growth rate of 1.9% for the first half [1] - The strong performance is primarily attributed to robust private consumption, supported by a healthy labor market and rising wage growth, despite pressures from the interest rate environment [3] Trade and External Demand - The external trade environment remains complex, with a restrained execution of tariff policies alleviating some tensions in the global trade system, creating conditions for U.S. companies to maintain a "not too bad" external demand environment [3] - However, a subtle shift in economic momentum is observed, with a clear slowdown from 2% growth in Q1 to 1.8% in Q2, indicating a gradual deceleration [3] Economic Forecasts - Bloomberg's survey reflects a 1.7% growth forecast, capturing the collective wisdom of financial market participants, which is based on current economic data and short-term trends [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's more cautious 1.6% growth prediction highlights its role as an economic "gatekeeper," focusing on risk management and maintaining policy credibility [6][7] Risk Management Perspectives - The divergence in growth forecasts illustrates different risk management philosophies, with market participants prioritizing growth opportunities while the Federal Reserve emphasizes systemic risk prevention [7] - The Fed's conservative growth outlook serves as a forward guidance tool, aiming to temper market optimism and create space for future policy adjustments [7] Structural Risks - Key risks facing the U.S. economy include uncertainties in tariff policies, which could lead to cautious corporate investment decisions and potential distortions in global trade flows [8] - Structural changes in the labor market post-pandemic, such as shifts in labor participation rates and wage growth dynamics, are also concerning, with potential implications for economic growth [10] Economic Outlook for H2 2025 - Projections for the second half of 2025 suggest a slowdown in growth, with Q3 expected to be around 1.4% and Q4 maintaining approximately 1.5%, leading to an annual growth rate close to 1.7% [11] - This trajectory aligns with the Federal Reserve's narrative of a "soft landing," but achieving this balance between growth and inflationary pressures remains challenging [11] Conclusion - The U.S. economy is at a critical turning point, transitioning from pandemic-induced volatility to a more normalized growth phase, characterized by uncertainty and complexity [12] - Understanding the underlying logic behind market optimism and policy caution is crucial for investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for flexibility and an open mindset in navigating potential scenarios [12][13]

Core Insights - The U.S. government's debt burden is accelerating, projected to surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, with total debt as a percentage of GDP expected to reach 143.4% by 2030, an increase of over 20 percentage points from current levels [1][3][6] - The U.S. budget deficit is forecasted to remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy nations tracked by the IMF [1][2] - In contrast, Italy and Greece are expected to see a decline in their government debt ratios by the end of the century due to strict budget deficit controls [2][3] U.S. Debt Trajectory - The U.S. total government debt as a percentage of GDP has been below that of Italy and Greece since the early 2000s, but this trend is reversing [3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the upward trend in U.S. debt will continue for decades, despite the country's status as the issuer of the global reserve currency [2][3] Political and Economic Context - The rapid expansion of the U.S. federal deficit occurred during the Biden administration, with limited progress noted during the Trump administration in addressing the issue [3][4] - Political dynamics in the U.S. complicate efforts to reduce the deficit, as both major parties are resistant to significant fiscal changes [4] Italy's Fiscal Discipline - Italy's government, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has received praise from foreign investors for its efforts to reduce the budget deficit, with a projected deficit of 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when Meloni took office [4][5] - Italy is expected to achieve a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP this year, exceeding initial forecasts [4][5] Rating Upgrades and Economic Recovery - DBRS Morningstar upgraded Italy's sovereign rating from "A low" to "BBB high," attributing this to improved public finance efforts supported by over €200 billion from the EU recovery plan [5] - Italy's labor market recovery and improved tax collection, partly due to increased digital payment usage, have also contributed to its fiscal improvements [5] Sustainability Concerns - Despite the U.S. having a lower net government debt level compared to Italy, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are rising due to the continuous upward trajectory of debt [6] - Experts suggest that any assumptions about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions must consider various economic factors, including productivity growth and tax revenues [6]

Core Viewpoint - A trend of "selling bonds and buying gold" has emerged, but Morgan Stanley maintains that U.S. Treasuries are a superior long-term choice [1][15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Foreign official investors have significantly altered their asset allocation, with U.S. Treasuries held in custody by the New York Fed declining by nearly $155 billion from July 30 to October 22, 2025 [1] - During the same period, gold prices surged over 25%, suggesting that foreign official investors may have used proceeds from selling U.S. Treasuries to purchase gold [2] Group 2: Performance Analysis - Despite potential selling pressure, the U.S. Treasury market remains robust, with Treasuries performing well since July [5] - Historical data indicates that gold has underperformed U.S. Treasuries over any given decade in the past 50 years, with specific examples showing gold's negative returns during certain periods [6] Group 3: Volatility Considerations - The report highlights that gold's total return volatility is significantly higher than that of intermediate U.S. Treasuries, making it a questionable choice for central banks focused on managing short- to medium-term Treasury indices [9] Group 4: Long-term Trends - Morgan Stanley expresses no concern over the reduction of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign official investors, noting it as a long-term trend that has seen the proportion of Treasuries held by these investors drop from 41% in mid-2014 to 16% currently [10] - The report emphasizes that the environment for holding U.S. Treasuries is becoming increasingly attractive due to rising economic activity risks, with expectations for lower terminal interest rates from the Federal Reserve [12] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Morgan Stanley suggests that investors should prepare for an upcoming "shining moment" for U.S. Treasuries, reiterating several trading recommendations, including going long on 5-year U.S. Treasuries and steepening the yield curve [15]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish sentiment in the oil market, particularly with significant short positioning in Brent Crude [3][5]. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have surged following the announcement of sanctions on Russian oil giants by the Trump administration, raising questions about future price movements [1][13]. - Managed Money shorts in Brent Crude reached a 90% rank on a two-year lookback, indicating a strong bearish posture among traders [3][5]. - The report highlights that the recent price movements and trader behaviors suggest a potential for larger covering flows if the recent price increase holds [16][18]. Summary by Sections - **Market Reaction**: Following the sanctions on Russian oil producers, December Brent crude saw an intraday high increase of 5.5% on October 23rd, with significant movements in spreads and open interest [13][11]. - **Trader Positioning**: The Commitment of Traders data shows a substantial amount of Managed Money short positions, with a cumulative increase of $3.3 billion over four weeks [3][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the rolling six-month correlation between Managed Money spreads and front-term structure remains negative, indicating that shorts dominate the market [10]. Additionally, reports of India reducing purchases of Russian oil have contributed to market unease [10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the retail sector amidst a choppy de-grossing market environment, suggesting that retail remains a dominant force despite the volatility [1][3]. Core Insights - Retail trading activity has surged, with retail investors accounting for over 16% of the total volume in S&P 500 stocks, marking a five-year high [7][9]. - The market is increasingly narrative-driven, with traders seeking compelling stories and catalysts to guide their investments [8][12]. - The volume of stocks executed by off-exchange venues, such as those serving retail platforms like Robinhood, is projected to reach 50% of total trading volume for the first time this year [9][12]. - Individual amateur investors are gravitating towards lightly regulated markets, with OTC Markets seeing an average monthly trading volume of approximately $59 billion, nearing the peak levels observed during the meme-stock frenzy [12][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in risk appetite, with retail investors remaining risk-seeking while institutional investors have adopted a more cautious stance [13][15]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - On a recent trading day, 25.2 billion shares were traded across US equity exchanges, significantly above the year-to-date average of 17.2 billion shares [3][4]. - The top 10 stocks by trading volume accounted for approximately 8 billion shares, or 32% of the total market volume, with a majority being penny stocks favored by retail investors [4][7]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high level of gross leverage and constrained net positions, indicating a cautious approach among institutional investors [22][23]. - The report notes that the unprofitable tech sector is experiencing a sharp correction, with some stocks, like Beyond Meat, showing significant reversals [28][29]. Earnings and Economic Indicators - Overall earnings remain supportive, but market reactions to earnings reports are becoming increasingly critical, as investors appear to be taking profits during the earnings season [29][31]. - The bond market has stabilized despite ongoing fiscal excess, with both nominal and real yields compressing at the long end, which is seen as bullish for equity multiples [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - Foreign institutions express confidence in China's economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, as highlighted by the recent Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [2][10]. Group 1: Focus on Technology and Innovation - The session emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and strengthening the modern industrial system, indicating a shift towards an ecosystem-driven strategy and increased support for industries to enhance productivity rather than just scale [4]. - Key macro themes include building a modern industrial system, accelerating technological innovation, and developing a strong domestic market, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [4][6]. - Research and development spending is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 7%, aiming for over 3.2% of GDP by 2030, translating to approximately 5.5 trillion to 6.0 trillion yuan [4]. Group 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and High-Level Opening Up - The session indicates a shift towards prioritizing policies that address structural challenges and enhance domestic demand, with a focus on improving social welfare and consumption [8][9]. - The strategy includes a commitment to expanding domestic demand while promoting new supply and creating new demand, linking consumption policies closely with social safety nets and public service access [8][9]. - The plan also aims to expand high-level opening up, maintaining a multilateral trade system and enhancing international cooperation, which is crucial given the ongoing trade tensions [9]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - By 2035, the goal is for significant improvements in economic, technological, and defense capabilities, with per capita GDP expected to reach between 25,000 to 30,000 USD [11][12]. - The projected annual GDP growth rate for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.0%, with a focus on synchronizing per capita income growth with GDP growth [12].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is facing an increased risk of a pullback, as indicated by Goldman Sachs, which suggests that the risk appetite has dropped to near neutral levels, significantly lower than the summer's supportive state for the market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - All three major U.S. stock indices reached new highs on Friday, but Goldman Sachs warns of rising pullback risks [1] - The likelihood of a market sell-off is higher than the potential for significant upward movement, prompting a recommendation for investors to increase hedging tools against potential downturns [1] Group 2: Global Exposure and Implications - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlights that global exposure to U.S. stocks is at a record level, suggesting that a correction in the U.S. market could have severe consequences [1] - If the U.S. stock market experiences a downturn comparable to the internet bubble burst, American households could face a loss of over $20 trillion (approximately 156 trillion HKD) in wealth [1]