Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to see a significant inflow of funds in early next year, driven by a weak dollar, local central bank rate cuts, and historically low allocations from global funds [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Emerging Markets - The anticipated resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, along with concerns over Trump's tariffs and fiscal policies, is negatively impacting the dollar's performance [5]. - Hedge funds and other speculative investors have placed bearish bets against the dollar, amounting to approximately $5 billion as of early September [5]. - The weak dollar, further rate cut space from local central banks, and historically low allocations to emerging markets are expected to support the asset class [5][6]. Group 2: Performance and Returns - Emerging market bonds have delivered nearly 9% returns this year, outperforming developed market bonds, which have seen a 7.5% increase during the same period [4]. - The dollar index has declined over 8% this year, potentially marking its largest annual drop since 2017 [4]. Group 3: Key Beneficiaries - Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Turkey, and Poland are identified as major beneficiaries of foreign capital inflows [6]. - Asian local currency bonds are less likely to attract funds due to already low interest rates and the preference of export-oriented economies for weaker currencies [6]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Analysts expect previously cautious global funds to increase their investments in emerging markets, giving these markets a competitive edge over developed markets [7].

格隆汇9月15日｜高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle表示， 9月FOMC会议的关键问题是，委员会是否 会暗示这可能是连续降息的第一步。我们预计声明将承认劳动力市场走软，但预计不会改变政策指引， 也不会默许10月份的降息。 ...

近期，美国银行预计，新兴市场将在明年初迎来更大规模的资金流入，美元疲软和新兴经济体韧性的进 一步确认将推动全球投资者加速从美国资产转向新兴市场。 该行全球新兴市场固收策略主管David Hauner表示，即使是来自美国的小规模多元化资金流动也将对新 兴市场产生重要影响。 美银分析师认为，投资者将在明年初变得更加乐观，届时将有更多证据证实贸易紧张局势对新兴市场经 济的冲击有限。摩根士丹利分析师也指出，外资对新兴市场资产的购买迄今仍然温和，预计资金流入将 在今年最后几个月提振该板块。 新兴市场债券今年已为投资者带来近9%的回报，据彭博指标显示，超过发达市场债券同期7.5%的涨 幅。美元指数今年已下跌超过8%，有望录得2017年以来最大年度跌幅。 多重利好因素支撑新兴市场 美银表示，美元此前一直走高，美国市场表现大幅跑赢其他市场，因此没有人真正对新兴市场感兴 趣。"现在将有空间进行多元化投资，而我们只是处于这一进程的开始阶段。 美银维持对新兴市场的乐观观点，该行自第一季度以来就持此立场。Hauner指出，新兴市场资产类别将 得到美元走弱、当地央行进一步降息空间以及全球基金历史性低配置的支撑。 这些评论强化了市场对新 ...

美国投资银行高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯当地时间13日在接受德国媒体采访时表示，美国和欧盟之间的新贸易协议虽已达成，但欧盟内部对此有很多不满 的声音。并且由于关税影响，协议将会导致欧盟输美商品价格上涨，而这部分关税负担最终可能将会由美国消费者承担。 哈祖斯援引德国经济研究所的一项研究称，即使欧盟不对美国采取报复性关税，美国也可能会"自吞苦果"，因为美国加征关税目录中，很大一部分商品是美 国特别依赖欧盟供应的商品，这些商品在新贸易协议生效后，价格会上涨，而这些额外成本，最终都会落到美国消费者身上。目前美国对欧盟进口的核反应 堆部件、起重机、卡车等商品的依赖性较强，暂时没有更好的替代来源。 哈佛大学经济学教授肯尼斯·罗戈，曾经在国际货币基金组织担任首席经济学家，他在接受德国《商报》采访时称，未来5年美国可能会出现严重的债务危 机，目前在美国投资不是一个安全的选择。 0:00 美国投资银行高盛首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯表示，美国总统特朗普推出加征关税政策之后宣称，这一关税政策只对美国有利，相关的负担完全由外国来承 担。但事实上，这一说法站不住脚。 哈佛经济学教授：美关税政策效果适得其反 罗戈说，目前美国国债飙升速度令人难 ...

•银河期货：贵金属在历史高位附近的多空博弈加剧 或将放大贵金属波动 •西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 •光大期货：黄金上行宏观逻辑并未打破 •银河期货表示，美国8月CPI尽管再度反弹，但较为温和且整体仍符合市场的预期；叠加8月非农数据爆 冷和对此前数据年度级别的大幅下修，凸显出美国劳动力市场的脆弱性，市场对于美联储年内多次降息 的预期得到进一步巩固。本周内美联储将召开9月FOMC会议，近期贵金属相关的利多因素接近充分发 酵，短期利多出尽的预期和中期"类滞胀"风险持续的担忧可能令贵金属在历史高位附近的多空博弈加 剧，或将放大贵金属波动。 •西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。美国7月 非农数据大幅不及预期，劳动力市场进一步放缓，美联储有望开启降息，为黄金提供新的上涨驱动力。 因此，贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 •光大期货表示，黄金突破4月以来震荡格局后连续冲高，呈现轧空表现，确立了突破的有效性。上周黄 金一度呈现高位震荡行情，一方面虽通胀数据推动降 ...

Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that President Trump's tariff policies, immigration controls, and tax and spending legislation will increase unemployment and inflation rates while suppressing overall economic growth this year [1][3] - The CBO's updated economic forecast indicates a downward revision of the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and overall growth rate compared to earlier predictions made before Trump's inauguration [3][5] GDP Growth Projections - The CBO expects the real GDP growth rate to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.4% this year, a further reduction from the initial forecast of 1.9% [5] - The decline in GDP growth is attributed to new tariff policies and reduced immigration leading to a slowdown in consumer spending [5] - The report anticipates a rebound in GDP growth to 2.2% by 2026, stabilizing at 1.8% in 2027 and 2028 [5] Economic Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are reported to have increased the prices of consumer goods and services, thereby weakening household purchasing power and raising production costs for businesses reliant on imports [5] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist noted that the effects of the tariff policy will continue to manifest in the coming months, predicting weak growth in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [7] Government Response - A White House spokesperson expressed confidence that tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and energy expansion policies will yield positive results in Trump's second term, countering the pessimistic forecasts [7]

Gower表示，金价的波动往往揭示着深层次的重大变化。今年以来，黄金价格已上涨逾38%，白银更是飙升逾42%，清晰反映出市场的强 劲活跃。 Gower指出，推动这波金价上涨的关键因素多样。 首先，全球各国央行正持续强劲增持黄金，黄金占央行储备的比重自1996年以来首次 超过了美债，这显示出对黄金长期价值的强烈信心； https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/podcasts/thoughts-on-the-market/gold-market-outlook-sep-2025-amy-gower 外媒消息， 摩根士丹利金属与矿业商品策略师 (Head of Metals and Mining Commodity Strategy at Morgan Stanley)Amy Gower表示，黄金已 超越其传统的避险资产角色，演变成为衡量全球经济与金融市场状况的「晴雨表」。 Gower在接受媒体访问时指出："在不确定时期，黄金一直是首选资产。"但到了2025年，其角色正在演变。 她补充说，投资者不仅将黄金视为对冲通胀的工具，，更把它当作从央行政策到地缘政治风险等多方面的风向标。 ...

本报记者 田鹏 更值得关注的是，外资对中国资产的"高信心"已从观点层面切实转化为实际行动。一方面，外资机构加大了对中国市场的 调研力度。众多国际知名投行、资管机构频繁派遣团队深入中国，对各行业上市公司进行实地考察、与企业管理层深度交流， 细致了解企业运营状况和行业发展趋势，为后续投资决策积累依据。 香港奥恺基金管理集团创始人、投资委员会主席曾晓松在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，今年以来通过深度参与A股 上市公司座谈与多轮现场调研，对中国企业的发展潜力有了更为直观且确切的感知。基于这一判断，团队年内已完成对8家A股 公司的投资布局，且为进一步挖掘优质标的，后续还计划开展10余家上市公司的现场调研工作。 另一方面，外资用真金白银加仓中国资产。例如，高盛最新发布报告显示，在8月6日至9月3日的四周内，全球股票基金获 得资金净流入635.9亿美元；新兴市场基金的资金净流入为55.21亿美元，其中，中国境内股票基金合计获得资金净流入65.5亿美 元，在新兴市场中遥遥领先。 海外"长钱"对中国资产的高度青睐态势愈发显著，近期披露的多份全球权威机构数据共同印证这一趋势。 高盛研究部最新数据显示，8月份，全球对冲基金对中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].

The price of gold, already at a record, could fly much higher.Do you think the price of gold can't possibly go any higher this year? Think again. Gold is having a banner year. The price of the yellow metal is up 39% year to date. And it seems to be picking up momentum -- it soared 8% over the past month. What's driving the ascent?Several factors, in fact. First, gold is a traditional safe haven that investors flock to in times of stress. Now is one of those times. Concerns about geopolitical tensions, stubb ...