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国泰海通证券开放式基金周报(20251214):建议均衡偏成长风格配置,重视科技成长风格基金,兼顾大金融、顺周期等资产-20251214
国泰海通· 2025-12-14 12:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A shares fluctuated last week, with the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors performing well. It is recommended to allocate in a balanced and growth - biased style, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and also considering large - finance and pro - cyclical assets [1][3][4]. - In the stock market, China's stock market is expected to enter a cross - year offensive, and the index will take a new step upwards. In the bond market, it is expected that credit risks will be generally controllable in 2026, and the rhythm of low spreads and high volatility may continue [14][15]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review - **A - share Market**: A shares fluctuated last week (20251208 - 20251212). The communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.34% to 3889.35, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries rose and 22 fell. The top - performing industries were communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment, with weekly increases of 6.27%, 2.8%, 2.63%, 1.38%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7]. - **Bond Market**: The bond market rose. On December 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the November 2025 price data. The CPI rebounded to 0.7% year - on - year, and the PPI fell to - 2.2% year - on - year. The overall price level still needed to be boosted. The new progress of Vanke's bond extension drove the bond market to recover and rise. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds all declined [8]. - **US Stock Market**: US stocks fluctuated. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut on Wednesday, which was in line with market expectations. However, on Friday, negative news from two major technology giants, Broadcom and Oracle, triggered concerns about the AI bubble again. Coupled with some Fed officials' opposition to easing monetary policy, the technology sector was under significant pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.63%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.62% [6][9]. - **Commodity Market**: Oil prices fell, and gold and silver prices rose. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2026, the global oil supply would exceed demand by 381.5 million barrels per day. The energy index fell 6.42%, and the prices of various oil products declined. The precious metals index rose 2.38%, with COMEX gold rising 2.05% and COMEX silver rising 5.13% [9]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds rose 0.38% last week. Some funds heavily invested in overseas computing power, chip semiconductors, and other sectors performed well. Index funds related to communication equipment, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors performed well [6][10][11]. - **Bond - type Funds**: Bond - type funds rose 0.07% last week. Among them, partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in sectors such as electronics and military industry performed well [10][11]. - **QDII Funds**: Among QDII funds, those mainly investing in the global technology field performed well. Equity - type QDII funds fell 1% last week, and QDII bond - type funds fell 0.07% [12]. - **Other Funds**: The annualized yield of money funds was 1.21%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds rose 0.8%, and commodity - type funds rose 0.84% [12][13]. 3. Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The Fed chair's replacement may affect the pace of interest rate cuts. It is predicted that US bond yields will first decline and then rise in 2026, and US stocks will still have continuous support [14]. - **Stock Market**: China's stock market will enter a cross - year offensive, and the index will take a new step upwards. It is recommended to focus on technology, securities, and some consumer sectors [14][15]. - **Bond Market**: In 2026, it is expected that credit risks will be generally controllable, and the rhythm of low spreads and high volatility may continue. It is recommended to mainly focus on short - and medium - term credit sinking to dig for coupons and pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - and long - term bonds at phased highs caused by events or policy shocks [15][16]. - **Fund Investment**: For stock - hybrid funds, it is recommended to allocate in a balanced and growth - biased style, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and also considering large - finance and pro - cyclical assets. For bond funds, it is recommended to focus on flexible fixed - income products. For money funds, there are no trending investment opportunities. For commodity funds, gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated [4][17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments - **Regulatory Policy**: The regulatory authorities issued the "Draft for Soliciting Opinions on the Code of Conduct for the Sale of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", aiming to standardize the fund sales behaviors of fund companies' direct sales and agency sales institutions [18]. - **Industry Development**: The public fund index - enhancement business has entered a fast - track development. As of December 10, 168 new index - enhancement funds have been established this year, with a total new - issuance scale of over 92 billion yuan, exceeding the total new - issuance of index - enhancement products in the past three years [20]. - **New Fund Products**: 23 new funds were established last week, with an average subscription period of about 13 days and an average raised share of 792 million shares, with a total raised share of 18.218 billion shares [21]. - **Fund Dividends**: 84 funds will conduct equity registration in the coming week. The most notable one is Huashang Advantage Industry A, which will distribute a dividend of 2.347 yuan per 10 shares [22].
国泰海通:跨年攻势已经开始
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-14 10:37
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 来源:一观大势 核心观点:政策预期有望上修,市场交投有望活跃,在较长时间的横盘震荡后,中国"转型牛"将重振旗 鼓,拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始,看好科技/券商保险/消费。 摘要 ▶在较长时间的横盘震荡后,中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓,拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观 之际,国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置:进入击球区,布出先手棋",近两周以来创业板指已基本收复 失地。对于后市,国泰海通比市场共识更乐观:部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误,2025 年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年,中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好 势头",并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导",首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"(2025年负增长), 并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存";中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策,继续实 施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目,隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济 活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快,政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下, ...
A股策略周报:跨年攻势已经开始-20251214
Group 1: Market Outlook - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is expected to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a cross-year offensive already underway [1][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, which was seen as a critical position for market recovery, with the ChiNext Index having recently regained lost ground [7][9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of the economy, calling for a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand [4][8] Group 2: Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a significant start point around 10-15 trading days before the Spring Festival [9][10] - The report notes that large-cap stocks tend to perform better before the Spring Festival, while small-cap stocks often outperform after the festival due to seasonal liquidity improvements [10][12] - The current market environment, characterized by significant prior adjustments and supportive policies, presents an important window for positioning ahead of the spring market [10][12] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The report highlights a positive outlook for technology, financial services, and consumer sectors as the market transitions into a cross-year offensive [4][8] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI models and applications are accelerating, with a recommendation for investments in internet, media, computing, and competitive manufacturing sectors [4][8] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from deepened capital market reforms, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4][8] - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery after three years of adjustment, with recommendations for low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks such as food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism services [4][8]
“中方预警满一个月后,日本旅游业担忧加剧”
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-12-14 06:01
Group 1 - The tourism industry in Japan is experiencing significant declines due to deteriorating Sino-Japanese relations, with many cancellations of bookings from Chinese tourists [1][2] - In the Kansai region, over 50% of bookings were canceled in November, and December bookings are nearly nonexistent, comparable to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - A bus tour company reported only three to four groups booked for December, down from 100 groups in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Hotel bookings from Chinese tourists dropped by 57% during the week of November 21-27 compared to the previous week, indicating a severe impact on the hotel industry [2] - A hotel in Osaka, which previously had 20% of its guests from China, expects a 20% decline in revenue for December compared to the previous year [2][4] - The Kansai International Airport saw a 10% decrease in round-trip flights between Japan and China in November, with 34% of flights canceled for December [5][6] Group 3 - The number of winter flights between Japan and China is expected to decrease by an average of 28% starting January, with significant cancellations already reported [6] - Major hotels in Hokkaido are also seeing a rise in cancellations from Chinese tourists for January and February, affecting winter tourism [7] - The overall impact of these cancellations is spreading to various sectors, including department stores, which are also reporting lower sales [5][7]
京骑启动“英文入境游导游提振计划”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-12-13 16:31
北京商报讯(记者 吴其芸)12月12日,京骑宣布正式启动"英文入境游导游提振计划"。据悉,该计划 以"窦俊杰国家金牌导游工作室"为核心执行平台,致力于打造常态化、高标准、重实效的北京入境游导 游培训品牌。 窦俊杰谈到,新时代的国际导游必须构建 "三硬四软" 的复合型能力体系。所谓"三硬实力",即扎实的 语言功底、深厚的跨学科知识储备以及极致的个性化服务水平。而决定卓越高度的"四软实力",则在于 能否成为产业大局观成为行业发展的"共鸣者",以高情商的专业服务成为游客的"共情者",熟练掌握跨 文化传播方法论成为"中国式叙事体系的践行者",并最终能整合资源、创造价值,成为市场产品的"开 拓者"。 据了解,"英文入境游导游提振计划"已规划了贯穿全年的系统化进阶课程。课程体系摒弃传统理论灌 输,首创"主题深耕+场景浸润"的线下交流模式。从2026年起,每月将围绕一个核心文化主题展开,例 如,走进珐琅厂解密景泰蓝的工匠精神,在都一处探寻百年老字号的传承密码,沿着北京中轴线进 行"Citywalk"解读古都规划的哲学思想,乃至在京剧后台、太极拳馆、现代茶空间等多元场景中,深度 研习如何将中华优秀传统文化转化为可感知、可互动 ...
怒江三江同城传媒有限公司成立 注册资本50万人民币
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-13 09:45
Core Viewpoint - Recently, Nujiang Sanjiang Tongcheng Media Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, indicating a diversification into various sectors including food production, transportation, and real estate [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is He Yingrui [1] - The registered capital of the company is 500,000 RMB [1] Group 2: Business Scope - The company is involved in several licensed projects such as food production, food sales, road passenger transport, tourism, real estate development, and catering services [1] - General projects include vending machine sales, fresh fruit retail, internet sales of pre-packaged food, manufacturing of food and beverage production equipment, and sales of charging stations [1] - Additional activities encompass technology services, hotel management, traditional Chinese medicine cultivation, and rural tourism resource development [1]
一场初雪,故宫、环球影城又“爆”了
Core Viewpoint - The initial snowfall in Beijing on December 12 has significantly increased the popularity and booking rates for major tourist attractions, particularly the Forbidden City and Universal Beijing Resort, indicating a surge in winter tourism interest [1][3]. Group 1: Tourist Attraction Trends - The search volume for the Forbidden City surged by 90% and for Universal Beijing Resort by over 40% compared to the previous two days [1]. - Tickets for the Forbidden City were sold out for December 13 and 14, with a more than 100% increase in booking interest for deep-dive and one-day tour packages on the same weekend [3]. - Universal Beijing Resort also saw an 80% increase in ticket booking interest for the weekend following the snowfall [3]. Group 2: Nationwide Snow Tourism - Popular snow-viewing attractions across China include historical and garden sites such as the Temple of Heaven, Summer Palace, and Yuanmingyuan, with a notable increase in bookings [4]. - Nationwide, interest in ice and snow-related attractions has risen, with top destinations including Chengdu Xiling Snow Mountain, Beijing Badaling Ski Resort, and Harbin Ice and Snow World, which saw a 280% year-on-year increase in ticket pre-sales [6]. - The average interest in winter tourism has increased by 300%, with skiing-related activities seeing an average rise of over 66% [6].
“中国第一龙乡”嘉荫推出五大旅游产品 解锁冬季游玩新体验
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-12 08:36
"中国第一龙乡"嘉荫推出五大旅游产品 解锁冬季游玩新体验 中新网伊春12月12日电 (刘璐 王惠泽)12日,记者从伊春市委宣传部获悉,今年冬季,黑龙江省伊春市 嘉荫县以"冰雪龙乡·童话嘉荫"为主题,深度融合"恐龙、界江、冰雪"三大特色资源,构建多元产品体 系,精心推出5大冬季旅游产品、4条精品旅游线路及10余处网红打卡地,解锁冬季游玩新体验。 游客在界江冰雪恐龙乐园畅玩冰滑梯。 于琨 摄 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 嘉荫县神州恐龙博物馆。 赵宇航 摄 此外,为提升游客体验,嘉荫县推出"一座城服务一个人"系列贴心举措,包括全程警务护航、涉旅投诉 先行赔付、团队专属联络员等,全力营造安心、舒心、暖心的旅游环境。(完) 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:熊思怡 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 本文为转载内容,授权事宜请联系原著作权人 据悉,嘉荫县位于黑龙江省小兴安岭北麓,是"林都"伊春的"北大门",与俄罗斯隔江相望,因出土了中 国首具恐龙化石"神州第一龙"黑龙江满洲龙,被誉为"中国第一龙乡" ...
北京初雪降临,故宫门票已售罄,北京环球度假区预订热度环比大涨超80%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-12 06:58
Group 1 - The first snowfall of 2025 in Beijing has led to a surge in interest for winter tourism, particularly in popular attractions like the Forbidden City and Universal Beijing Resort [1] - Search volume for the Forbidden City increased by 90% and for Universal Beijing Resort by over 40% compared to the previous two days [1] - Tickets for the Forbidden City on December 13 and 14 are sold out, with a significant increase in bookings for deep-dive tours and day trips, more than doubling compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - Due to the high demand for tickets at the Forbidden City and Universal Beijing Resort, visitors are turning to other scenic spots, boosting the popularity of historical buildings and parks [2] - Attractions such as Summer Palace, Yuanmingyuan, Temple of Heaven, Yonghe Temple, Jingshan Park, Beihai Park, and Badaling Great Wall have entered the top 10 popular scenic spots [2]
广西思想政治工作“实”字当头聚民心
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2025-12-12 03:58
当思想政治工作插上"数字翅膀",其传播力与效能显著提升。自治区党委宣传部牵头推进的爱国主 义教育基地网上展馆、长征国家文化公园广西段数字导览、红色基因库等项目,让革命精神可感可触。 自治区教育厅打造的"思政立方体"大中小学思政课一体化资源共享平台,集纳优质资源,构建起"云上 思政"矩阵。广西大学依托数据系统,完成约8万人次心理测试,智能预警并化解危机。 交流活动中,有关专家就学习贯彻《中国共产党思想政治工作条例》作专题辅导。自治区党委网信 办、广西旅游发展集团、南宁师范大学、南宁市委宣传部、中国铁路南宁局集团有限公司分享了经验做 法。2026年,广西思想政治工作研究会将继续全面贯彻落实《中国共产党思想政治工作条例》,坚持问 题与需求导向,深化调查研究,强化数智赋能,不断提升思想政治工作科学化、制度化、规范化水平, 切实凝聚起磅礴的思想共识和发展合力。(李贤) 12月11日,广西思想政治工作经验交流活动在南宁举行。记者获悉,2025年,广西思想政治工作研 究会通过多元载体深化教育、聚焦急难愁盼问题、数智赋能融合创新,更活、更实、更新的实践探索遍 地开花,成效明显。 扎实的实践也催生了理论硕果。广西科技师范学院《 ...