2025-06-04日沪镍主力合约2507开于121250元/吨，收于122590元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.85%，当日成交量为 117416手，持仓量为83546手。 沪镍主力合约2507今天低开高走，日线收中阳线。07主力合约的成交量对比上个交易日有所放大，持仓量有小幅 减少。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的绿柱面积在缓慢缩窄，短周期内或许下跌趋势接近尾声，60分钟线在5月26 日的122000附近出现底背离现象，但端午节前的大幅下探击穿底背离的支撑位，关注上方122000-123000短期一线 压力位置，下方关注120000整数关口附近短线支撑位置。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调525元 /吨，市场主流品牌报价均有一定的涨幅。近期精炼镍盘面以弱势震荡为主，盘面虽有反弹迹象，但市场观望态度 居多，今天精炼镍现货成交整体表现一般，升贴水对比上个交易日有小幅下调，升贴水近期处于平稳的态势。其 中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2500元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至350元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日 沪镍仓单量为22299（261.0）吨，LME镍库存为201624（162） ...

Group 1 - Indonesia is preparing to establish a domestic metal trading market for nickel and other metals, with plans to launch in the first half of 2026 [1] - Indonesia is the world's largest nickel producer and holds the largest nickel reserves globally [1] - The government has banned nickel ore exports since 2020 to attract smelting investments and aims to exert greater influence over nickel prices, which are projected to drop to a four-year low by the end of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) has proposed the establishment of a metal exchange, which has received government approval [1] - The initial phase of the exchange will focus on nickel pig iron contracts, with plans to expand to other nickel products and metals [1] - The APNI is studying the concept and structure of the exchange based on existing systems used by the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] Group 3 - The goal of the initiative is to control the global nickel market [1] - Eric Koh from LME welcomed the plan, emphasizing the need for a regional pricing mechanism based on local supply and demand to complement global pricing [1] - Daniel McElduff from Abaxx Exchange highlighted the importance of considering the timing and regulatory environment for the plan's success [2]

期货热点追踪 印尼镍矿协会正在筹备本国金属交易所，2026年上半年启动，镍价能否迎来转机？ 相关链接 ...

光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 p 2 4、观点：镍矿价格表现平稳，周内印尼镍矿配额消息扰动，实际SMM与ESDM就此类问题进行了询问，ESDM某官员表示，近两周暂时未对补充配额进行大批量的审 批。不锈钢产业链方面，原料端镍铁成交冷清，参考价格仍维持940元/镍点，成本端依旧有支撑，供应端国内和海外均有减产，但整体需求较为疲软，前期跟随镍价下 跌后或有修复，但需求将制约价格上方的阻力。新能源方面，硫酸镍供需双弱，据富宝统计，6月三元正极排产环比微降。一级镍方面，国内和LME库存均环比下降。 短期镍价快速下跌后或有修复，当前市场矛盾并不突出，主要是镍矿坚挺叠加一级镍去库利多，而不锈钢和新能源的需求疲软制约，但继续向上需要新驱动因素，短 期仍偏震荡运行。 p 3 目 录 1价格：月内沪镍跌3.7%，LME镍跌1.2%，各品种价格均有下跌 2.库存：周内LME库存减少1644吨至200142吨；沪镍库存减少113吨至2 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, leading some plants to consider production cuts. The price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the supply of nickel ore is tight. The market sentiment is weak, with an expected short - term downward trend and a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [3][4]. - For the stainless - steel market, the cost situation of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and the planned maintenance of some stainless - steel plants may support the market, but overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is also selling hedges at high prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,640 yuan/ton and closed at 120,480 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,192 lots, and the open interest was 102,540 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, and continued to rise during the day session, closing with a mid - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous day [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was calm. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipments were affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and were reluctant to pay high prices for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the quota increased to 3.2 billion tons, and the domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) decreased by about $0.02. Some iron plants planned to cut production due to high costs. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,170 (- 174.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 200,142 (- 720) tons [3]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the prices of other mainstream brands also dropped. Although the nickel price rebounded during the day, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 250 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main strategy is range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Stainless - steel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,690 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,550 lots, and the open interest was 101,554 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, rose during the day session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest slightly increased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Some stainless - steel plants have maintenance plans in June. In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price rebounded slightly, but some steel mills and agents lowered their quotes. Cold - rolled transaction prices mostly followed the decline. The market had rigid demand, and low - priced resources had good transaction volumes. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,100 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 460 - 660 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - steel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-29 受印尼配额消息影响，镍价破位下跌 镍品种 市场分析 2025-05-28日沪镍主力合约2506开于121990元/吨，收于119950元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-2.10%，当日成交量 为158844手，持仓量为106713手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘小幅低开后弱势横盘振荡，日盘开盘后振荡小幅下跌，午后受印尼镍矿配额增加传闻影响，破 位下跌，收大阴线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。当地时间25日，美国总统特 朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他已同意这一请求。1-4月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总 额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%，较1-3月加快0.6个百分点，延续恢复向好态势。镍矿市场交投氛围较为平静，菲 律宾6月资源持续在售，但受降雨天气影响，装船出货受阻。下游铁厂利润亏损，对镍矿原料采购压价心态难改。 印尼方面，印尼方面，近期传出配额新增至3.2亿吨，镍矿供应紧张6月（一期）内贸基准价下跌0.02美元左右，升 水尚在洽谈中。印尼镍铁生产成本高企，成本亏损下，部分铁厂已有减产意愿。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价 较上个 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美联邦法院阻止特朗普 4 月 2 日关税政策生效 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 5 月 28 日，美国联邦法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在 4 月 2 日 "解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税 的决策为越权。位于纽约曼哈顿的国际贸易法院表示，美国宪法赋予美国国会独家权力来规 范与其他国家的贸易，而总统声称为保护美国经济而行使的紧急权力并不凌驾于这些权力之 上。该诉讼由美国非营利、无党派诉讼机构自由正义中心代表五家受关税影响的美国小企业 提起，这是对特朗普关税政策的首次重大法律挑战。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 锡 | ★★★★ | 锡：昨日锡价大幅下跌，跌幅近 3%，主要受到消息面影响，市场一度传言佤邦复产进度， 另外近期多数商品下跌，宏观情绪偏差，而有色板块整体估值较高，锡作为远端基本面较弱 的品种亦被情绪交易。然而基本面仍然维持强现实弱预期格局，据钢联了解 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For nickel, due to the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and supply tension in the nickel ore market, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - For stainless steel, considering the cost - inversion of Indonesian nickel - iron plants, potential price pressure on the ore end, and the maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants, it is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is also to sell on rallies for hedging [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 122,500 yuan/ton and closed at 122,170 yuan/ton, a - 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,308 lots, and the open interest was 29,331 lots [1]. - The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract opened slightly lower and oscillated weakly sideways, while the day session oscillated and declined weakly, closing with a small negative line. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased slightly [2]. - The nickel ore market was quiet. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipping was affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and had a strong desire to lower nickel ore prices. In Indonesia, the domestic benchmark price for nickel ore in June (Phase I) dropped by about $0.02, and the premium was still under negotiation. Some Indonesian iron plants had the intention to cut production due to high costs [2][3]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was about 850 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 0 - 2,200 yuan/ton, that of imported nickel was 0 - 250 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,120 (- 130) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 199,998 ( + 1362) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the nickel ore supply is tight. New transactions need to be monitored. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is mainly range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 27, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 98,902 lots, and the open interest was 92,426 lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract oscillated in a narrow range and consolidated throughout the day, closing with a small doji. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [3]. - Similar to the nickel market, the nickel ore market was quiet, and some Indonesian iron plants planned to cut production. Some stainless - steel plants had maintenance plans [3]. - In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures oscillated sideways. Most merchants kept their prices unchanged. Downstream demand was weak, and merchants were reluctant to sell at low prices. The supply pressure of cold - rolled products remained. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,150 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 385 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Similar to the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, and some plants plan to cut production. Price pressure may shift to the ore end, and new transactions need to be monitored. The maintenance plans of some stainless - steel plants may support the market. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: May 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia due to the rainy season affecting shipping, leading to a slight increase in nickel ore prices and stronger cost support [3] - Rising ore prices drive up the cost center of integrated production lines, providing solid support at the lower end [3] Bearish Factors - Loosening marginal supply of pure nickel, combined with high overseas inventories and stable domestic inventories, increasing upward pressure [3] - Slow recovery of downstream stainless steel demand, limited support from the new energy sector, and continuous losses of nickel sulfate enterprises [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Weak supply and demand fundamentals make it difficult for nickel prices to move up or down, maintaining a short - term oscillating pattern. It is recommended to focus on range - band operations and option strategies [3] Data Summary Nickel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased slightly, with weekly declines ranging from -0.10% to -0.21%. The LME nickel 3M price also dropped by -0.09% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 19.69% to 87,677 lots, and the open interest decreased by 25.3% to 47,440 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.49% to 22,418 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 671.11% to -1,735 yuan/ton [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Prices**: The closing prices of stainless steel futures contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) showed mixed trends, with some contracts declining by -0.50% to -0.65% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume decreased by 17.99% to 109,100 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.93% to 117,183 lots [4] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 10.19% to 140,425 tons [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract increased by 12.06% to 790 yuan/ton [4] Spot Nickel - The prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, electrowon nickel) showed minor fluctuations, with changes ranging from -0.04% to 0.04% [4] Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons [4] - **LME Nickel Inventory**: The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,274 tons to 198,636 tons [6] - **Stainless Steel Social Inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons [6] - **Nickel Pig Iron Inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [6] Chart Information Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - The report provides charts of the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures main contracts, LME nickel (3 - month) futures, and stainless steel futures main contracts over time [8][9] Nickel Supply and Inventory - Charts show the average price of nickel spot, China's refined nickel monthly production, total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory of nickel (nickel plates + nickel beans), LME nickel inventory, price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB), and China's port nickel ore inventory by port over time [11][12][13] Nickel Iron - Charts present the average price of high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia (Ni≥14%, arrival - tax - included), China's nickel iron monthly production, the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China, and Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production over time [16][17][19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Charts display the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate, China's nickel sulfate monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors over time [21][23][24] Stainless Steel - Charts show the profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, stainless steel monthly production, and stainless steel inventory over time [26][27][29]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to trade tensions and changes in Indonesian policies, leading to a complex supply-demand dynamic in the nickel market [2][4][6]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Nickel prices dropped to a low of 115,000 yuan/ton in early April due to heightened risk aversion from trade conflicts, but later recovered to a range around 125,000 yuan/ton as market sentiment improved [2]. - The price of nickel has been constrained within a narrow range, primarily due to a shift in trading logic and the oversupply in the nickel industry, particularly from Indonesia [4][16]. - The Indonesian government has adjusted the tax rates on nickel products, increasing the nickel ore tax from a fixed 10% to a floating rate of 14%-19%, which is expected to provide some price support [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Indonesia's nickel resources are becoming increasingly significant in the global market, with the country implementing various policies that impact nickel pricing and supply [5][6]. - The global supply of refined nickel has been in surplus, with inventories rising from 50,000 tons to around 250,000 tons, indicating a growing imbalance in the market [13]. - Domestic demand for nickel, particularly in the stainless steel sector, is under pressure due to slow recovery in real estate transactions and seasonal demand fluctuations [8][15]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - China's refined nickel production has increased significantly, with a cumulative output of 140,000 tons in the first four months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 44.94% [11]. - The production capacity utilization rate for domestic refined nickel enterprises remains high at 96.94%, indicating robust production levels despite external challenges [11]. - New production capacities in Indonesia and China are gradually displacing traditional high-cost nickel producers, leading to a shift in the global supply landscape [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of wide-ranging fluctuations, with strong cost support from Indonesian policies and ongoing supply constraints limiting downward price movements [16]. - The end of the rainy season in the Philippines is anticipated to increase nickel ore shipments, which may lead to a more relaxed supply situation [16]. - The overall sentiment in the nickel market is cautious, with steel mills adopting a conservative approach to raw material procurement amid a backdrop of weakening demand [16].