市场还远没到以上回顾的2015年牛市最后巅峰阶段的盛况。 只要市场保持活跃，无论是传统主流媒体（报纸、电视），还是新媒体（抖音、微博、微信、小红书），最热门的财经话题之一就是 对股市走势以及板块投资机会的预测。 近日，我读到某机构的一份新出炉预测报告，报告详尽总结了A股上世纪90年代以来历次牛市走势，然后精准地描绘今年A股走势： 一季度银行板块领涨、二季度科技赛道走强、三季度消费公司接力、四季度小微公司再来一大波……似乎股市大势尽在把握。 我不得不佩服作者对历史资料收集的认真与详尽，更佩服他敢于为未来短时期走势画蓝图的"勇气"，但是我还是想说句实话：这样的 具体预测，失准一定是大概率。一季度二季度已经过去，写出的仅是过去发生的事件而已，而且多为牵强附会；简单以过去走势判断 未来，我认为不靠谱。 另一类机构预测报告基本是AI模式。比如，"展望未来，A股市场有望在多重积极因素的推动下，延续结构性震荡上行的趋势。随着 宏观经济逐步企稳回升，政策支持持续加码，市场的信心正在逐步修复。尤其是在新质生产力、科技创新和产业升级等国家战略的引 导下，A股市场的结构性机会愈发明显"云云；然后展开长篇大论的文字堆砌；最后"建议投 ...

美银最新研报恢复了对快手的覆盖，给予"买⼊"评级，目标价92港元。采用SOTP估值法：1) 可灵8港元 (估值约50亿美元)，基于2026年16倍P/S；2) 核心业务84港元，基于2026年14倍P/E。 美银表示，快手是中国互联网领域杰出的AI应用公司，看好可灵为公司所带来的上行潜力。可灵货币 化进程正在加速，且在推理层面的边际利润已打平。预计2025年收入1.4亿美元，到2027年将增长至4.1 亿美元，长期增长潜力巨大，目标进军规模超百亿美元的专业视频创作市场。 对于快手的核心业务，美银认为广告和电商板块均能跑赢行业，并从AI赋能中受益。与电商同行相 比，美银更青睐快手，因为其收入增速更快，且不参与补贴战，盈利可见性更高。快手广告增速也远高 于整体在线广告市场7%的增速。同时快手通过AI赋能其内容和商业生态系统，在流量、广告效果与消 耗、电商商家的销售和运营效率方面均看到了积极效益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected adjusted net profit for 1H25, driven by a significant increase in high-margin subscription business, despite a sharp decline in beauty solutions revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue increased by 12.3% to 1.82 billion, lower than expectations due to an 89% drop in beauty solutions revenue [1]. - Adjusted net profit rose by 71.3% to 470 million, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin subscription services [1]. - Subscription revenue grew by 45.2% to 1.35 billion, driven by an increase in paying users [2]. - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 40% of adjusted net profit, transitioning to semi-annual distributions [1]. User Growth and Engagement - The company’s MAU increased by 8.5% to 280 million, with overseas MAU growing by 15.3% to 98 million [1]. - The number of paying members rose by 42.5% to 15.4 million, with a slight increase in the paying rate to 5.5% [1]. - The launch of the AI Agent product, RoboNeo, achieved over 1 million MAU in its first month [1]. Revenue Quality and Cost Management - Gross margin reached 73.6%, up 8.7 percentage points, due to a higher share of high-margin imaging business [2]. - The company expects to maintain a 15% annual growth rate in R&D expenses over the next three years, while sales expenses are projected to stabilize around 16% of core revenue [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted down by 8% and 4% to 3.9 billion and 4.8 billion, respectively, while adjusted net profit forecasts were raised by 11% and 10% to 900 million and 1.2 billion [2]. - The target price was increased by 50% to 10.8 HKD, reflecting a 4% upside from the current stock price, with the stock trading at 45/35 times 2025 and 2026 Non-IFRS P/E [2].

Group 1 - On August 19, a total of 6 Hong Kong stocks were repurchased by companies, with 3 stocks having repurchase amounts exceeding 10 million HKD [1] - Tencent Holdings, China Hongqiao, and Hang Seng Bank had the largest repurchase amounts, totaling 550 million HKD, 93.2865 million HKD, and 22.3848 million HKD respectively [1] - As of August 19, 218 Hong Kong stocks have been repurchased this year, with 43 stocks having a cumulative repurchase amount exceeding 100 million HKD [1] Group 2 - Tencent Holdings, HSBC Holdings, and AIA Group had the largest cumulative repurchase amounts this year, totaling 41.144 billion HKD, 22.781 billion HKD, and 17.693 billion HKD respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the explosive growth of Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) business is effectively compensating for the slowdown in its smartphone business, with the ramp-up of production capacity at the Beijing second factory in the second half of the year expected to be a catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 reached 1159.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [9] - The AIoT business revenue was 387 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, surpassing expectations by 18% [9] - The EV business revenue was 213 billion RMB, more than doubling year-on-year and exceeding estimates by 6% [9] - Smartphone business revenue was 455 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 2%, falling short of expectations by 8% [9] - Internet services revenue was 91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but 5% below expectations [10] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for the company reached 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The EV business gross margin was 26.4%, significantly increasing by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability prospects [6] - The AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The smartphone business gross margin was 11.5%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, due to intense market competition [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EV business is seen as the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the current quarter, with average selling prices increasing by 6.4% to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the delivery volume of EVs will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year, especially following strong orders for the YU7 model [8] - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation at the second factory, which requires stable production capacity by the end of Q4 [8][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the integration of party building and business development within internet enterprises, showcasing the importance of Xi Jinping's thought in practice [1][2] - The Jinghua Practice Research Center, opened on July 1, has a building area of 990 square meters and aims to serve as a key platform for learning and applying Xi Jinping's thought [1] - The center features various educational components, including a theme classroom and a practical base, designed to enhance the understanding of the historical changes and development in Beijing [1] Group 2 - Internet enterprises are recognized as vital forces in the capital's development, contributing to the cultivation of new productive forces and the construction of a global digital benchmark city [2] - Participants expressed a commitment to further integrate into the capital's development strategy and contribute to the practical application of Xi Jinping's thought [2] - Weibo's deputy secretary highlighted the theme classroom as a vivid textbook reflecting the high-quality development of the capital, emphasizing the role of internet enterprises in showcasing Beijing's achievements [2]

Overall Performance - Internet business revenue accelerated growth, reaching 961.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with a growth rate improvement of 2.2 percentage points compared to January-May [1] - Total profit decreased significantly, totaling 74.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.3%, with the decline rate widening by 6.1 percentage points compared to January-May [1] - R&D expenditure showed stable growth, amounting to 48.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points compared to January-May [1] Regional Performance - Eastern region led in revenue growth, achieving 863.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, surpassing the national growth rate by 2.2 percentage points, accounting for 89.8% of national internet business revenue [2] - Central region saw a decline in internet business revenue, totaling 38.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [2] - Western region's internet business revenue reached 58.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [2] - Northeast region reported 1.93 billion yuan in internet business revenue, a year-on-year decline of 18.8% [2] - Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region maintained rapid growth, with revenue of 331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, accounting for 34.4% of national internet business revenue [2] - Yangtze River Delta region achieved 312.8 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, representing 32.5% of national internet business revenue [2] - Over 30% of regions experienced positive growth in internet business revenue, with the top five regions (Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Guizhou) generating 810.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, accounting for 84.3% of national internet business revenue (excluding cross-regional enterprises) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, indicating strong growth despite challenges in the smartphone segment [3][4]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi Group's revenue for Q2 2025 reached 116 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [3]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 10.8 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 75.4% [3]. - The gross profit for the smartphone segment was 5.22 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 11.5%, down from 12.1% in the previous year [3][4]. - IoT and lifestyle products generated a gross profit of 8.72 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 22.5%, up from 19.7% year-on-year [3]. - Internet services revenue was 6.86 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 75.4%, slightly down from 78.3% [3]. Segment Performance - Smartphone revenue decreased by 2.1% year-on-year to 45.5 billion RMB, attributed to a decline in average selling price (ASP) in overseas markets [4]. - IoT and lifestyle products saw a revenue increase of 44.7% year-on-year, reaching 38.7 billion RMB [4]. - Internet services revenue grew by 10.1% year-on-year to 9.1 billion RMB [4]. - The innovative business segment, including smart electric vehicles and AI, generated 21.3 billion RMB in revenue, with a loss of 300 million RMB [4]. Market Outlook - The smartphone market is expected to experience zero or minimal growth, leading Xiaomi to revise its sales target for the year to approximately 175 million units [5]. - The company aims to optimize product structure and improve ASP in response to market conditions [5]. - Xiaomi's R&D investment for the quarter was 7.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, with an expected total investment of 30 billion RMB for the year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group reported a strong revenue growth of 30.5% year-on-year for Q2, driven by IoT and lifestyle products, despite a slight decline in smartphone revenue [2] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached 116 billion RMB, with a net profit of 10.8 billion RMB, marking a 75.4% increase year-on-year [2] - Smartphone revenue was 45.5 billion RMB, down 2.1% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) in overseas markets [2] - IoT and lifestyle products generated 38.7 billion RMB, showing a significant growth of 44.7% year-on-year [2] - Internet services revenue was 9.1 billion RMB, up 10.1% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from innovative segments, including electric vehicles and AI, totaled 21.3 billion RMB, with a loss of 300 million RMB [2] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for smartphones decreased from 12.1% in the previous year to 11.5% in Q2, influenced by increased promotional activities and competition [2][3] - The company anticipates a recovery in smartphone gross margin in Q4, focusing on high-end products and investments in chips, operating systems, and AI [3] Market Outlook - The overall smartphone market growth is expected to be flat or minimal, leading Xiaomi to revise its sales target to approximately 175 million units for the year [3] - The company emphasizes optimizing product structure and improving ASP in response to market conditions [3] R&D Investment - R&D expenditure for Q2 was 7.8 billion RMB, a 41.2% increase year-on-year, with an expected total investment of 30 billion RMB for the year [4] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased from 39.336 billion RMB to 36 billion RMB year-on-year [4]

Core Insights - On August 16, Douyin launched a promotional event called "Eat, Drink, Play, and Have Fun Day," featuring 46,000 live broadcasts by celebrities and influencers to promote dining and boost offline consumption [1][7] - The event saw significant sales, with over 1,016 million yuan generated from KFC's special live stream, where 190,000 orders were placed [1] - The platform collaborated with over 18,400 brands, aiming to stimulate the summer tourism economy and encourage more in-store dining experiences [7] Group 1 - Celebrity Xu Juncong's live stream with KFC lasted 14 hours, selling over 38,000 discounted meal vouchers [1] - Actor Zhu Xiaotian's dual-screen live stream attracted over 5 million views, promoting a buffet restaurant to audiences in multiple cities [3] - Influencer @XiaobaWang showcased a burger brand, achieving peak transaction values of over 47,000 yuan per minute during the live stream [3] Group 2 - Influencer @FeiChai collaborated with a barbecue brand, generating over 5.12 million yuan in sales during a 12-hour live stream [5] - Local influencer @XiaoYiChiBuFang helped sell 1.34 million yuan worth of dining vouchers through a live stream at a popular barbecue restaurant [5] - Influencer @DaoXiaoDaoSama and local influencer @ShiHuiSheng facilitated over 8 million yuan in sales for a Hangzhou cuisine brand through their live broadcasts [5]