截至收盘，沪银期货主力合约涨超5%，续创历史新高。 平安证券指出，展望2026年，结合宏观与基本面，三条主线有望主导有色板块表现：1）美元信用弱化 及美联储降息有望持续，黄金等贵金属货币属性及金融属性持续计价，同时弱美元提供工业金属向上驱 动。2）供给收缩加速为工业金属基本面核心演绎逻辑，表现在不同金属面临的上游资源约束或中游产 能瓶颈。3）需求新增长极驱动弹性释放，供给出清结束背景下，能源金属基本面改善显著。建议关注 成本优势突出，未来几年内享有量增的各赛道企业：赤峰黄金、山东黄金、洛阳钼业、天山铝业、云铝 股份、神火股份、兴业银锡，锡业股份、中矿资源、华友钴业。 中银证券认为，黄金仍处上升通道，但当前处于加速上行后的高位震荡阶段，后续行情的催化关键在 于"实际利率下行"与"美元走弱"能否形成共振。相比之下，白银的短期确定性更强：当前处于历史高位 的"金银比"蕴含着较大的修复空间，而光伏等工业领域需求增长为银价提供了支撑，较低的库存水平使 其价格短期弹性或优于黄金。 ...

Market Overview - On December 9, the stock and bond markets exhibited a seesaw trend, with bonds rising and stocks falling. The overall A-share market declined by 0.55% with a trading volume of 1.92 trillion yuan, down 133.9 billion yuan from the previous day[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.29%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.90%. Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 531 million HKD, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Alibaba receiving net inflows of 878 million HKD, 540 million HKD, and 425 million HKD respectively[1] Sector Performance - The concentration of trading volume reached 45%, indicating a historical high, with technology sectors, particularly AI computing, driving this concentration. Other sectors, such as non-ferrous metals and liquor, experienced significant declines[2] - Consumer sectors are becoming a focus for capital, particularly those related to policy, such as ice and snow tourism, and tech-related consumption like consumer electronics and digital marketing[2] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed mixed performance, with most bonds closing in the green, but intraday rates fluctuated. The long-end rates initially opened lower by about 1 basis point but later turned upward due to market speculation on potential easing of bank economic value sensitivity indicators[4] - Despite a slight recovery in bond market sentiment, there remains pressure from redemptions in medium and short-term bond funds, indicating a cautious outlook for the bond market in the near term[7] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market saw widespread declines, with precious metals like gold and silver down by 0.92% and 0.68% respectively. Industrial metals also faced downward pressure, with aluminum and copper dropping by 1.67% and 1.46%[7] - The market experienced a significant net outflow of 8.4 billion yuan in commodities, reflecting a lack of sustained bullish sentiment. Non-ferrous metals and precious metals were the main areas of capital outflow[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts, which could impact market stability and investor sentiment[10]

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、政策兑现，12月压力较大 2、警惕年底"资金抬轿子" 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 （文稿为机器转录，如有出入，请以音频为准） 每天10分钟拆解新闻背后的逻辑。大家好，今天是2025年的12月9号星期二，我是董小姐。 除此之外，其余赛道表现平庸，多数收跌；首当其冲的是"反内卷"相关板块——工业金属、钢铁、煤 炭，以及昨日解读中提到的"政策文件缺席"的房地产，跌幅均超2%。这种短期压力信号不会在一两个 交易日内结束。毕竟，除了国内信息外，海外仍有新增变量。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 1、政策兑现，12月压力较大 今天，市场明显感受到政策压力——三大指数中有两只被按到水下，最终仅创业板指独涨0.6%。而这 0.6%的涨幅仍集中在为数不多的热门板块：人工智能、光模块等，以及零星消费赛道如零售、饮料制 造。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector recorded a week-on-week increase of 5.35%, ranking first among all primary industries, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and urgent metal warehouse conditions [1][14] - Industrial metals saw significant price increases, particularly copper, which reached a historical high due to supply concerns and rising demand expectations [2][29] - Precious metals strengthened overall, supported by declining interest rate expectations and silver market dynamics [4][42] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 5.35%, outperforming the index by 4.98 percentage points [14] - Among the sub-sectors, industrial metals surged by 9.14%, while energy metals declined by 0.53% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: LME copper price reached $11,665 per ton, up 4.38% week-on-week; SHFE copper price was 92,780 CNY per ton, up 6.12% [2][29] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum price was $2,901 per ton, up 1.24%; SHFE aluminum price was 22,345 CNY per ton, up 3.40% [3][34] - **Zinc**: LME zinc price rose to $3,099 per ton, up 1.56%; SHFE zinc price was 23,305 CNY per ton, up 3.92% [37] - **Tin**: LME tin price reached $40,175 per ton, up 2.23%; SHFE tin price was 317,500 CNY per ton, up 4.08% [40] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,227.70 per ounce, down 0.67%; SHFE gold closed at 961.04 CNY per gram, up 0.75% [4][42] - **Silver**: The silver market experienced significant price increases due to delivery volume expansion and rapid inventory declines [43]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.37% to 3909.52 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.39% to 13277.36 points. The ChiNext Index, however, saw an increase of 0.61% to 3209.60 points [1]. Market Performance - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Composite Index was 781.16 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index recorded a trading volume of 1122.79 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index had a trading volume of 528.11 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Components: Increased by 1.62% with a trading volume of 188.91 million hands and a total transaction value of 81.38 billion yuan [1]. - Retail: Increased by 1.38% with a trading volume of 408.25 million hands and a total transaction value of 25.80 billion yuan [1]. - Beverage Manufacturing: Increased by 0.89% with a trading volume of 62.96 million hands and a total transaction value of 8.18 billion yuan [1]. - The sectors that faced declines included: - Industrial Metals: Decreased by 3.37% with a trading volume of 423.83 million hands and a total transaction value of 50.99 billion yuan [1]. - Steel: Decreased by 2.50% with a trading volume of 211.76 million hands and a total transaction value of 9.91 billion yuan [1]. - Pharmaceutical Commerce: Decreased by 2.48% with a trading volume of 108.61 million hands and a total transaction value of 10.99 billion yuan [1].

平安证券指出，2026年工业金属行业面临供应约束强化与需求弹性释放的双重驱动。上游资源端及中游 冶炼产能扰动持续，新能源需求韧性叠加AI等新兴产业打开远期增长极，宽松货币环境有望推动宏观 与基本面共振。有色金属方面，美元信用弱化及美联储降息将强化黄金货币属性，同时弱美元为工业金 属提供向上驱动；供给收缩成为工业金属核心逻辑，铜、铝等品种面临资源约束或产能瓶颈；能源金属 中钴、锂伴随主产国政策落地及海外产能出清，供需改善显著，价格中枢有望上移。贵金属方面，美国 财政问题及政治风险抬升支撑黄金避险属性，金价中枢看涨。整体来看，有色金属行业在宏观与基本面 双轮驱动下，价格弹性有望加速释放。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、稀有 金属等矿产资源开采与加工业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券 的整体表现。该指数具有较强的周期性和商品价格敏感性，能够较好地体现有色金属矿业板块的市场走 势。 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations in the afternoon, with sectors such as components, CPO, dairy, and retail showing gains, while industrial metals, steel, and coal sectors faced declines. As of 14:17, the National Free Cash Flow Index dropped by 2.0% [1] - GF Securities previously stated that free cash flow is a cash flow-based metric reflecting the actual cash available to companies for retention, dividends, buybacks, and debt servicing, making it an important indicator of financial health and profitability [1] - Companies with abundant free cash flow can share in long-term growth dividends and are better positioned to navigate economic cycles. In the context of policy support and market style shifts, the free cash flow index is expected to serve as a "ballast" for asset allocation [1] Group 2 - The National Free Cash Flow Index focuses on A-share listed companies with high and stable free cash flow levels, considering industry, liquidity, ROE stability, free cash flow, enterprise value, and operating cash flow during sample selection [1] - The top three industries in the index are non-ferrous metals, automotive, and oil and petrochemicals, providing a balanced allocation of quality "cash cow" companies that combine high-quality profitability with strong defensive attributes [1] - The E Fund Free Cash Flow ETF (159222) offers a management fee rate of 0.15% per year, providing investors with a convenient tool for bottom-line allocation amid market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index showed modest gains, indicating mixed market sentiment [1]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3918.83 points, down by 0.13% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13341.62 points, up by 0.09% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3224.38 points, up by 1.07% [1]. Sector Performance Top Gaining Sectors - Components sector increased by 2.48%, with a total trading volume of 1355.05 million hands and a total transaction value of 580.34 billion - Communication Services sector rose by 1.34%, with a trading volume of 880.17 million hands and a transaction value of 154.47 billion - Retail sector grew by 1.30%, with a trading volume of 2957.46 million hands and a transaction value of 185.43 billion [2]. Top Declining Sectors - Industrial Metals sector decreased by 2.69%, with a trading volume of 2784.78 million hands and a transaction value of 333.28 billion - Coal Mining and Processing sector fell by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 762.97 million hands and a transaction value of 55.23 billion - Pharmaceutical Commercial sector also declined by 1.99%, with a trading volume of 903.21 million hands and a transaction value of 83.85 billion [2].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown significant price increases, with gold up over 50% and silver up over 70% year-to-date, leading the commodity market [2][4] - The average price of gold jewelry in Shanghai reached 1320 yuan per gram on December 8, a 65% increase from 799 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year [2] - Analysts expect continued demand for precious metals driven by central bank purchases and investment diversification, with gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce by 2026 [4][5] Group 2: Silver Market - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with analysts predicting a price range of $50 to $60 per ounce by 2026 due to limited supply and high demand [6][10] - The gold-silver ratio has increased to a range of 85-90, indicating a strong performance for silver relative to gold [6] - Analysts suggest that silver will benefit from both industrial and financial demand, with expectations of continued price volatility [5][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,771 per ton, a year-to-date increase of over 30% [7][8] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to structural supply shortages and increased demand driven by the anticipated AI era [7] - Forecasts indicate that copper prices may average $11,750 per ton in 2026, with potential peaks of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter [8][9] Group 4: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to face supply constraints, with forecasts indicating a supply deficit in 2026, supporting higher prices [10] - Analysts predict that LME aluminum prices could exceed $3200 per ton in 2026 due to limited domestic supply growth and resilient global demand [10] - The price dynamics between copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a ratio of 3-4, with aluminum prices projected to fluctuate throughout 2026 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is showing a mixed performance characterized by rising safe-haven assets, differentiated trends in industrial metals, and pressure on energy and agricultural products [1] Precious Metals - Precious metals have benefited from a return of cyclical demand, with gold prices up over 50% and silver prices up over 70% year-to-date [2] - The average price of gold jewelry in Shanghai reached 1320 yuan per gram on December 8, a 65% increase from 799 yuan per gram at the beginning of the year [2] - Central banks in emerging markets have accelerated gold purchases, contributing to structural support for gold prices, while cyclical demand from ETFs has driven recent price increases [2] - Analysts expect continued investment demand for precious metals in 2026, with gold prices potentially reaching $5000 per ounce due to ongoing macroeconomic factors [4][5] Silver Market - The silver market is expected to benefit from both industrial and financial demand, with analysts predicting a price range of $50 to $60 per ounce in 2026 [6] - The gold-silver ratio has increased to the 85-90 range, indicating a strong demand for silver, which may continue to outperform gold [6] - Silver's strategic resource attributes are becoming more pronounced, with supply constraints expected to intensify [6] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached historical highs, with LME copper futures hitting $11,771 per ton, a year-to-date increase of over 30% [7] - The rise in copper prices is driven by structural imbalances in global supply and inventory, alongside expectations of increased demand from the AI sector [7] - Analysts predict that copper prices will remain strong, with forecasts suggesting an average price of $11,750 per ton in 2026 [8] - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints, with projections indicating that LME aluminum prices may exceed $3200 per ton in 2026 [10]