聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-29 供需驱动不足，烧碱延续弱势整理 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4989元/吨（+28）；华东基差-159元/吨（-8）;华南基差-139元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-533元/吨（+27）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-584元/吨（-18）；PVC出口利润13.7美元/吨（+0.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.0万吨（+0.9）；PVC社会库存42.1万吨（-2.1）；PVC电石法开工率77.22%（-0.78%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.67%（+4.67%）；PVC开工率75.67%（+0.67%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量60.2万吨（+3.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2441元/吨（+2）；山东32%液碱基差-4元/吨（-96）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall comprehensive profit of caustic soda was relatively high in the first quarter of this year, and enterprises had a weak willingness to reduce production through maintenance, mostly maintaining high operation rates [4][10] - The cost of caustic soda mainly consists of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda for enterprises with self - supplied power plants may further decrease, and the expectation of loss - induced production reduction is difficult to occur [4][10] - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than the same period last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. The demand for alumina also declined due to cost - related maintenance and production reduction of some alumina enterprises, and the short - term stocking demand for caustic soda in alumina plants was weak [4][10] Group 2: Upstream Device Maintenance and Production Reduction - Upstream production enterprises generally conduct a large - scale routine maintenance every 2 - 3 years and a small - scale production line rotation inspection every year. In the first quarter of this year, due to high comprehensive profits, most enterprises maintained high operation rates [4][10] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost of caustic soda is mainly composed of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly, with the price of raw salt in surveyed chlor - alkali enterprises ranging from 280 - 300 yuan/ton (delivered). The cost of self - supplied power plants is lower, and with the decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda may further decrease [4][10] Group 4: Downstream Demand - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. Downstream enterprises and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand. Non - aluminum terminal inventories were generally low, showing a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality [4][10] - Recently, the price of alumina was low, and some alumina enterprises reduced production due to cost issues, dragging down the rigid demand for caustic soda. Alumina plants had high inventories of caustic soda raw materials, and the short - term stocking demand was weak [4][10] Group 5: Specific Situation of Surveyed Enterprises Caustic Soda Enterprise A - It has a designed capacity of 150,000 tons and an actual capacity of 200,000 tons, with chloroacetic acid as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and some liquid chlorine sold externally [11] - It purchases industrial electricity externally, with a production electricity price of over 0.6 yuan, a delivered price of raw sea salt of 300 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive production cost of about 2,400 yuan/ton [11] - The current direct sales ratio is about 60% - 70%, with a target of 80% [12] Caustic Soda Enterprise B - It has a capacity of 200,000 tons, with CPE as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and a small amount of liquid chlorine sold externally [13] - It has a storage capacity of 15,000 tons, a normal inventory level of 5,000 tons, and an inventory of about 2,000 - 3,000 tons during the survey [14] - It purchases electricity externally, with a delivered price of sea salt for production of 250 - 260 yuan/ton and a full production cost of caustic soda between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan [14] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will bottom out and rebound, with a minimum price of - 350 yuan. In April, there were few export orders, and the export outlook for May was not optimistic [16] - During the survey, it was believed that the spot price of caustic soda could still rise, but the duration might be short. Qingdao Bay planned to officially put into operation 200,000 tons in May, and Jinling planned to start the 50% caustic soda device on April 19th [17] Enterprise C (Caustic Soda Flakes Trader) - It is a secondary trader of caustic soda flakes, mainly sourcing from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. During the survey, the social inventory of caustic soda flakes in Shandong was low due to traders' pessimistic expectations [18] - The freight from Inner Mongolia to Shandong is 240 - 260 yuan/ton excluding tax, and from Xinjiang to Shandong is 480 yuan/ton. Shandong's caustic soda flakes mainly come from Inner Mongolia [18] - It has a short - term bearish view on the market, and the price of caustic soda flakes in Inner Mongolia was 3,250 yuan/ton during the survey, with an expected further decline [18] Enterprise D (Liquid Chlorine Trader) - It is a liquid chlorine trader. Due to the high requirements for production and transportation, the threshold for liquid chlorine traders is high [19] - The sales radius is generally within 300 kilometers. Liquid chlorine is usually shipped on the same day or the next day without inventory [19] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will not decline too much in the short term and may rebound to 1 - 100 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range between - 300 and 200 yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine markets in Shandong and Jiangsu are differentiated, and summer is a relatively off - season for small liquid chlorine - consuming enterprises [21]

研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年4月28日 基本面要点： 价格：4 月 25日，烧碱主力合约（SH2505）收盘报 2439元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌1.26%。山东32%液碱折百价在2531元/吨附近。 供给：本周全国氯碱装置检修、提负并存，产能利用率环比-0.2%至82.1%，较上周变化不大。烧碱产量 ：79.20 万吨 ，环比-1.71 万吨。 需求：国内氧化铝开工率持续回落；粘胶短纤开工率环比-1.05%至77.17%，印染开工率环比-1.89%至60.06%。 库存： 库存方面，本周液碱工厂 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro Aspect**: Domestic important meetings have released positive policy signals, and the negative impact of US tariffs has weakened. Market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation [4]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: It is expected that the previously overhauled plants will resume production this week. The market's end - of - month settlement prices are gradually released, and demand for restocking has slowed down. The East China liquid caustic soda market is expected to be weak and stable. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. To keep inventory levels stable, some enterprises have offered discounts on sales, which is reasonable [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The weak operation of alumina prices continues to have a negative feedback effect on caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the cost - end support below. Caustic soda may be weak and consolidate at a low level this week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has weakened again. The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated steadily. From April 18th to April 24th, the price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 820 yuan/ton to 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; the price of 50% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda dropped from 1460 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The prices of other products such as raw salt, flake caustic soda, and light soda ash remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures (active contracts) compared with soda ash, alumina, PVC futures, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Affected by newly added overhaul plants in Northwest, Central, and South China, the load decreased, while the load in North and Southwest China increased after the overhaul of plants ended. In Shandong, there were both复产 and减产 enterprises, and the复产 capacity was greater than the减产 capacity, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 4.0% to 91%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will rise to about 84%, and the weekly output will be about 809,500 tons [20]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: There were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market during the week. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production after the overhaul, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24th, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.97% (+ 0.23%) [25]. - **Inventory Side**: As of April 24th, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased month - on - month, while those in North, East, and South China decreased month - on - month [29]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25%. At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, but downstream enterprises carried out plant overhauls due to profit shrinkage, resulting in a significant reduction in demand, poor trading atmosphere, and mostly lower prices. The price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu also decreased following the trend in Shandong, with the current mainstream price at around - 250 yuan/ton. The downstream operating rate was not high, and purchases were made on demand. The mainstream price in Anhui was - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC market continued to operate weakly [32]. - **Chlor - alkali Cost and Profit**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. During the week, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the price of liquid chlorine decreased slightly, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年4月28日 --------氯强碱弱综合利润上涨 期货仓单数量稀少 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.1%，较上周环比-0.2。西北、华中、华南新增检修装置 | | | | 影响负荷下滑，周内华北、西南装置检修结束负荷提升。山东复产与减产企业并存，复产产能大于减产产能，山 | | | | 东产能利用率+4.0%至91%。本周来看，西北、华北、华中、华东、华南、西南均有装置复产，复产涉及企业较多， | | | | 因 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - The trend of caustic soda is weak. Macroeconomically, the trade war is difficult to end in the short - term. In the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand, and profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand. Demand from the alumina industry is weak due to low profits and high inventory, and non - aluminum demand is generally weak. Although exports can support caustic soda, the possibility of continuous high - level stocking by foreign buyers is low. On the supply side, there will be new maintenance in May, but manufacturers' loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits. In operation, short positions can be taken for contracts 06 and 07, and reverse spreads can be used for 6 - 9 contracts. [5][7] 2.2 PVC - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The trade war is difficult to end in the short - term. Fundamentally, the northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to ease. High production is hard to change in the short term as the maintenance volume in the first quarter was low, and the "using caustic soda to supplement chlorine" in the chlor - alkali industry chain makes large - scale production cuts difficult. High inventory pressure persists, and although exports can relieve the pressure periodically, the sustainability of exports is uncertain due to factors such as anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak. [8][10] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Views Overview - Caustic soda is in a weak trend, and PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The trade war has a negative impact on both products, affecting demand and export situations. [5][8] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,400 yuan/ton. The 09 basis of caustic soda strengthens, and the 6 - 9 month spread weakens. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is an advanced indicator of the market, currently higher than the evaporation cost, which is positive for caustic soda, but the high - price stocking of 50 - caustic soda is weak. China's caustic soda exports are expected to increase significantly year - on - year, mainly to Indonesia. The export FOB is around 400 - 415 US dollars/dry ton. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is small. [13][19][27] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.1%, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons nationwide is 408,500 tons (wet tons), a 3.02% decrease from the previous week and a 3.77% decrease year - on - year. There will be new maintenance in May, but manufacturers' loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits. In 2025, there will be 2.55 million tons of new caustic soda production capacity, a 5.2% increase. However, considering the continuous losses of downstream chlorine - consuming industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity launch may be lower than expected. [49][51][55] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production starts to decline, inventory accumulates, and profits decline rapidly. The price of alumina is falling, and new maintenance and production - reduction capacities are increasing. Under low - profit conditions, the stocking demand for caustic soda weakens. Non - aluminum industries are generally affected by the trade war, with low demand. For example, the paper pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries are all affected, while the water treatment industry has a relatively high year - on - year start - up rate, and the ternary precursor industry has a stable start - up. [85][98][110] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis changes little, and the 9 - 1 month spread changes little. [128] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The start - up of PVC has increased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. In April 2025, there were more PVC maintenance plans. There will be 2.1 million tons of new PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, and although there may be delays, the launch of ethylene - based production capacity is highly certain. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali marginal device is about - 870 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda in 2025. PVC production enterprises' inventories are accumulating, while social inventories are being depleted. PVC exports increased in January - February, and the number of warehouse receipts will rise again. [133][134][135]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both PVC and caustic soda are rated as neutral [11] Core Viewpoints PVC - Supply side: New device overhauls increased during the week, and the PVC operating rate decreased slightly. Supply reduction and stable export delivery led to continuous destocking of PVC social inventory. Future supply pressure may be alleviated. However, downstream demand is weak, and the cost - side support has weakened, with prices moving down. Export uncertainties remain, and the high absolute inventory still drags down prices [8] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Two new chlor - alkali enterprises carried out overhauls, and future overhauls are still numerous, so supply may be tightened. Demand side: Non - aluminum industries and downstream traders increased replenishment, leading to a significant decline in upstream inventory and a price rebound. But overall non - aluminum demand is weak, and the upward trend of prices is still under pressure [10] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - As of April 18, the average operating load rate of calcium carbide was 60.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%. The overall operating load of PVC was 74.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The loss due to parking and overhauls was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from last week. Warehouse total inventory was 41.38 tons, a decrease of 0.85 tons from last week [3][4][5] Caustic Soda - As of April 18, the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.30%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50%. The output was 79.20 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week. The upstream inventory was 42.92 tons, a decrease of 5.31 tons from last week [6][7] Strategy - PVC: It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Pay attention to the implementation of overhauls and the recovery of downstream demand [11] - Caustic Soda: Although supply is expected to tighten slightly, the upward trend of prices is still under pressure. Pay attention to downstream procurement rhythm and the implementation of overhauls [11]

Report Overview - Report Type: Weekly Report on Caustic Soda - Writing Time: April 14, 2025 - Review Period: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning - Consulting License Number: Z0001219 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core View - Affected by the overall macro - sentiment, caustic soda futures opened lower last week. After a small rebound, it continued to weaken, hitting a new low for the year. With high inventory and high production, the future trend is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement progress and macro - policy changes [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - **Price**: After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the macro - environment, caustic soda futures opened lower. The SH main contract continued to find the bottom, hitting an annual low of 2,267 yuan/ton on Wednesday. As of April 11, 2025, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 5.60% [4]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.32 million tons to 83.26 million tons, and flake caustic soda weekly production decreased by 0.88 million tons to 10.61 million tons. The weekly loss of caustic soda was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.83 million tons compared with the previous week. It is expected that the upstream maintenance loss will increase next week [4]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 471,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 0.65% month - on - month and 5.51% year - on - year. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 27.82%, an increase of 0.34% month - on - month [5]. - **Cost**: The price of raw salt was lowered again. The price of sea salt in Shandong was 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price of well - mine salt in Central China remained at 270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the price of lake salt in the Northwest remained at 240 yuan/ton [5]. - **Profit**: The average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 533 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.61% compared with the previous week. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was continuously lowered this week, while the price of liquid chlorine increased, resulting in a decline in the overall chlor - alkali profit [5]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina was 78.88%, a decrease of 4.49% month - on - month. The price of alumina continued to decline this week. As of April 11, the average price of alumina in Shanxi was 2,870 yuan/ton. The operating rate of non - aluminum downstream viscose was 83.61%, a decrease of 4.46% month - on - month; the operating rate of printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 64.35%, a decrease of 4.13% month - on - month. In terms of exports, the quotation of liquid caustic soda was stable with minor fluctuations. The export quotation of 50% caustic soda in East China this week was FOB 440 - 450 US dollars/ton [5]. II. Illustrations - The report provides six illustrations including domestic caustic soda operating rate, domestic sample enterprise liquid caustic soda factory inventory, domestic viscose staple fiber industry capacity utilization rate, caustic soda main contract basis, spot liquid caustic soda price, and caustic soda main continuous K - line (daily line) [6][9][13]

前十大流通股东累计持有： 58197.65万股，累计占流通股比： 50.32%，较上期变化： 83.38万股。 | 名称 | 持有数量(万股) | 占总股本比 | 增减情况 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 例(%) | (万股) | | 上海华谊控股集团有限公司 | 53880.56 | 46.59 | 不变 | | ISHARES CORE MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF | 774.33 | 0.67 | 3.72 | | VANGUARD EMERGING MARKETS STOCK INDEX FUND | 634.94 | 0.55 | 不变 | | 香港中央结算有限公司 | 602.81 | 0.52 | 17.30 | | VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND | 537.09 | 0.46 | 不变 | | 孙月龙 | 390.32 | 0.34 | 不变 | | SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF | 367.95 | 0.32 | 7.65 | ...