1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The PVC market is volatile with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant, social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price. The烧碱 market has seen a continuous decline in spot prices, with demand support showing signs of loosening, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm and new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton (-12), with an East China basis of -178 yuan/ton (+12) and a South China basis of -98 yuan/ton (+12) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,840 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide price was 2,890 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+10), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was - 4.5 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate was 76.91% (-3.38%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate was 72.00% (-5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 75.43% (-3.96%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2,604 yuan/ton (-37), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 104 yuan/ton (+37) [1][2]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (-90.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,381.25 yuan/ton (-56.00) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 37.83 tons (+2.15), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.18 tons (-0.03), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 65.76% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.52% (+1.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Although downstream demand has increased, the export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda has been continuously decreasing. Production may increase slightly, and demand support is weakening. Attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm during the peak season and the start - up rhythm of new alumina plants in Guangxi [3]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go short on the V01 - 05 spread when it is high. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong contracted on a month - on - month basis. The chlor - alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple units such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise on a month - on - month basis [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet cut production due to cost, their purchasing intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre - National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3][4]. - In the futures market, there are still expectations for anti - involution and restocking of new alumina plants. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, and the main basis may remain negative. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of new alumina production capacity in the future. The short - term operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2580 - 2680 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2604 yuan/ton and 2696 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 37 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 114,144 lots, an increase of 12,443 lots; the trading volume was 477,688 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 11,026 lots, a decrease of 14,988 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 940 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2950 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [3]. - From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month - on - month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - Due to the impact of the shutdown and maintenance of multiple domestic units last week, the capacity utilization rates in various regions decreased to varying degrees. SH2601 fluctuated and declined, closing at 2604 yuan/ton. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - This week, the caustic soda futures market stopped falling and stabilized, with a significant rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises have been continuously narrowing due to the ongoing decline in alumina prices both at home and abroad. The spot price support is weak. In the North China region, inventory has increased due to the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious purchasing attitude of downstream buyers. In the East China region, the supply is tight as the maintenance and production - reduction devices of enterprises have not yet resumed, and the inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand from non - aluminum sectors. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut as the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda needs time to be released, and the current supply is at a high level while the main downstream is facing difficulties in unloading [2]. 2.2 PVC - This week, the PVC futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the macro - environment. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. Next week, many enterprises will end their maintenance, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the improvement in the operating rate of downstream products is limited, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, while the ethylene price is stable, providing bottom - line support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Price and Market Trends - The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost. For example, the price accelerated its decline when the macro was weak, the operating rate was high, and there were concerns about future supply. It also had rebounds under the influence of positive policies and increased demand [8]. 3.1.2 Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 85.44%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points from last week's 86.73%. The operating rate in Shandong was 85.11%, a decrease of 2.24%. The inventory in the East China region increased by 0.70% from September 10th to September 17th, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 8.28% and 7.46% respectively for different sample enterprises. The overall operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is still relatively high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - The alumina industry, the main downstream of caustic soda, has a large number of new production capacity plans from the end of 2024 to 2025. It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will be over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a concentrated demand of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. 3.1.4 Other Related Industries - The price of bauxite is stable, the port inventory fluctuates, and the enterprise raw material inventory has increased significantly. The production of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the in - plant inventory is decreasing. The non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, textiles, and papermaking have different trends. The printing and dyeing operating rate is seasonally rising, and the textile industry is gradually entering the peak season [39][45][50]. 3.2 PVC 3.2.1 Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, macro - environment, and cost. It has experienced continuous declines and rebounds. For instance, it fell when there was no positive supply - demand drive and the commodity atmosphere was poor, and rebounded when the macro - sentiment improved and there were some supply - demand contradictions [62]. 3.2.2 Supply - This week, the operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry decreased, the weekly maintenance loss increased, and the number of temporarily shut - down devices increased. The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.43%, a decrease of 3.96 percentage points compared with the previous week. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 76.91%, a decrease of 3.38 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 72%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points [84]. 3.2.3 Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. The real - estate industry, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," still has a negative impact on demand. According to the data from Xuande samples, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels. It is expected that there will be no positive driving force for the PVC downstream [92]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period. The social inventory in the East China and South China regions, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all shown an upward trend [100]. 3.2.5 Foreign Market - In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of $712 per ton. The cumulative import from January to July was 148,800 tons. The single - month import increased by 2.10% month - on - month, 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import increased by 6.03% year - on - year. The export volume in July was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of $606 per ton. The cumulative export from January to July was 2.291 million tons. The single - month export increased by 26.17% month - on - month, 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [118]. 3.3 Futures and Options Strategy Recommendations 3.3.1 Caustic Soda - Futures strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 01 contract [4]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3.3.2 PVC - Futures strategy: Expect the 01 contract to fluctuate in the range of 4,800 - 5,000 [5]. - Options strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5].

Company Overview - Ningxia Yinglite Chemical Co., Ltd. is located in Shizuishan City, Ningxia, and was established on November 12, 1996, with its listing date on November 20, 1996 [1] - The company’s main business includes the production and sales of calcium carbide, lime nitrogen, dicyandiamide, caustic soda, polyvinyl chloride resin, liquid chlorine, hydrochloric acid, and other related products, as well as electricity and heat production [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Yinglite reported operating revenue of 867 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.00%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -156 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.92% [2] - The company has cumulatively distributed 608 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3] Stock Performance - As of September 22, Yinglite's stock price decreased by 2.03%, trading at 8.21 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.239 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 5.53%, but it has decreased by 4.53% over the last five trading days, 9.58% over the last twenty days, and 7.44% over the last sixty days [1] - The number of shareholders as of September 10 is 23,400, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period, with an average of 12,973 circulating shares per person, an increase of 0.89% [2] Capital Flow - In terms of capital flow, there was a net outflow of 2.2172 million yuan from main funds, with large orders buying 2.3678 million yuan (12.39% of total) and selling 4.5851 million yuan (23.99% of total) [1] Business Segmentation - The main revenue composition of Yinglite includes PVC (52.21%), caustic soda (28.20%), E-PVC (12.83%), and other chemical products (2.35%), with calcium carbide contributing 2.24% and electricity accounting for 0.67% [1] - The company belongs to the Shenwan industry classification of basic chemicals - chemical raw materials - chlor-alkali [1]

Group 1: Main Points and Strategy Overview - The latest futures price of caustic soda is 2580 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78%; the price of Shandong 32% caustic soda is 2406.25 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.38%; the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda is 1250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.41% [5]. - China's caustic soda production is 820,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%; North China's production is 270,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11%; Northwest China's production is 220,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.44% [5]. - China's caustic soda operating rate is 81.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.8%; Shandong's operating rate is 0.89, with a week-on-week increase of 2.01% [5]. - The inventory of liquid caustic soda is 378,300 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.03%; the inventory of flake caustic soda is 22,100 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.27%; Shandong's inventory is 29,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 17.6% [5]. - The alumina operating rate is 86.23%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%; Shandong's alumina operating rate is 88.39%, with no change from the previous week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.52%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.99%; the chemical pulp operating rate is 86.4%, with a week-on-week increase of 6.27%; the printing and dyeing operating rate is 65.76%, with no change from the previous week [5]. - Shandong's chlor-alkali profit is 240.09 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 35.17%; Northwest China's chlor-alkali profit is 525.05 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.79% [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the historical trends of caustic soda futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other indicators through multiple charts [8][11][13][16][19][20][24][27][28][29][30]. Group 3: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - The report shows the historical trends of caustic soda capacity utilization, device loss, inventory, and other indicators through multiple charts [33][36][38][40][56][58][60][62][64][66][67][68][69][70][73]. - Supply-side positives: Formosa Plastics will conduct large-scale maintenance from the 16th to the 23rd, which will have a short-term driving effect on the surrounding area; Minxiang and Dadi have fully loaded their 50% caustic soda production; Guangxi alumina plants will start to stockpile caustic soda in October [75][76]. - Supply-side negatives: The FOB export transaction price of caustic soda in East China is between 390 - 410, and the transaction price of liquid caustic soda in Northeast Asia is between 410 - 420; Haili has fully loaded its production capacity; Binzhou's maintenance has been postponed; Weiqiao has vehicle queuing; Tianjin Bohua's device will be fully loaded in the second half of the month, and attention should be paid to Wenfeng's procurement [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and rebounded on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The alumina price has been falling, squeezing the profit of domestic alumina enterprises and weakening the support for the spot price. In Shandong, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term. [2] - Last week, PVC futures rebounded with the support of a warming macro - environment, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream product operating rate has limited improvement, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize from September to October. [2] Urea Industry - The urea futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 210,000 tons in October. The demand is weak, with a short window for autumn fertilizer procurement, high finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers, and slow follow - up of export orders. Without variables such as increased exports or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the spot price may continue to decline, and the futures will continue to fall significantly only if the spot price breaks below 1,550 yuan/ton. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain high as some plants restart or postpone maintenance. The demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, some secondary - downstream inventories are high, and styrene plants plan to reduce production in September - October. The price driving force is weak. [10] - The situation of styrene is similar to that of pure benzene. The supply - demand is expected to be loose in September, and the price driving force is weak. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has increased significantly due to delayed maintenance of some domestic plants, while the demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants postpone commissioning, and many PTA plants plan to have maintenance. The PXN may be compressed in the fourth quarter, and the price driving force is weak. [14] - For PTA, the supply is expected to shrink, but the demand increase is limited, and the basis is not strongly supported. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. [14] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term supply - demand is turning weak. Although the inventory is expected to decrease in September, the terminal market is weak. In the long - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new plant commissioning and seasonal demand decline. [14] - For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price is supported at the low level but lacks upward driving force. [14] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand is still loose. Although the price and processing fees are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, the processing fee has limited upward space. [14][15] Polyolefin Industry - PP production has decreased recently due to losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week, and there are more import offers from North America. The 01 contract has a large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward space. [20] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is trading high - inventory and fast loading in Iran. The coastal inventory has reached a record high, the market sentiment has worsened, and the price and basis have weakened slightly. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and although there is some unplanned maintenance recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September, and the inventory pattern in the inland is relatively healthy. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The port is still receiving a large amount of goods, with significant inventory accumulation and weak trading. The overall valuation is neutral. The futures are oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. [45] Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices were weakly oscillating. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market has refocused on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has eased concerns about secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, reducing the geopolitical risk support for oil prices. The expectation of future supply surplus, combined with the refinery maintenance season and the unexpected increase in US distillate inventory, has put pressure on oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are under pressure. [49] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase. [2] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - From September 11 to September 18, the FOB price at East - China ports increased by 5 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% increase, and the export profit increased by 217.6 yuan/ton, with a 3723.4% increase. The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the CFR price in India decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, with a 3.3% decrease. [2] Supply - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 85.4%, and the operating rate of PVC decreased by 4 percentage points to 75.4%. [2] Demand - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 83.7%, and the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88.2%. [2] Inventory - From September 11 to September 18, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 0.7 tons, with a 7.5% increase, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, with a 1.2% decrease. [2] Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 17, compared with September 16, the 01 - contract price of urea decreased by 5 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the 05 - contract price decreased by 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.17% decrease. [5] Upstream Raw Materials - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of动力煤 at the pithead in Yijinhuoluo Banner increased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 2.14% increase, and the price of动力煤 at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.87% increase. [5] Spot Market Prices - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of small - particle urea in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.56% increase, and the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.65% decrease. [5] Supply - Demand - On September 19, compared with September 18, the domestic daily urea output decreased by 0.02 tons, with a 0.11% decrease. From September 12 to September 19, the domestic weekly urea inventory increased by 32,600 tons, with a 2.88% increase, and the order days of domestic urea production enterprises decreased by 0.7 days, with a 10.17% decrease. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 6 US dollars/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [10] Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of styrene in East - China spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a 1.4% decrease, and the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, with a 66.7% decrease. [10] Downstream Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the cash flow of phenol increased by 28 yuan/ton, with an 8.6% increase, and the cash flow of aniline increased by 93 yuan/ton, with a 29.8% increase. [10] Inventory - From September 8 to September 15, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons, with a 6.9% decrease, and the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons, with a 9.9% decrease. [10] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 78.4%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 73.4%. [10] Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% decrease. [14] Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of POY150/48 decreased by 65 yuan/ton, with a 0.9% decrease, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 45 yuan/ton, with a 0.7% decrease. [14] PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4 US dollars/ton, with a 3.9% decrease, and the PX - MX spread increased by 2 US dollars/ton, with a 1.4% increase. [14] PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PTA East - China spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase, and the TA01 - TA05 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [14] MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MEG East - China spot price decreased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the MEG basis (01) decreased by 62 yuan/ton, with a 3.2% decrease. [14] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the PX operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.3%, and the PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.8%. [14] Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the L2601 closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton, with a 180% increase. [20] Spot Market Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of East - China PP raffia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% decrease, and the price of North - China LLDPE film decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% decrease. [20] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the PE enterprise inventory increased by 23,800 tons, with a 5.57% increase, and the PP enterprise inventory increased by 43,400 tons, with an 8.06% increase. [20] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the PE device operating rate increased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.4%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.93 percentage points to 74.9%. [20] Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MA2601 closing price increased by 15 yuan/ton, with a 0.64% increase, and the MA91 spread decreased by 28 yuan/ton, with a 215.38% decrease. [45] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.21%, with a 0.61% decrease, and the methanol port inventory increased by 7,400 tons, with a 0.48% increase. [45] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.22 percentage points to 68%, and the downstream external - MTO device operating rate increased by 6.02 percentage points to 75.08%. [45] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the Brent price increased by 0.17 US dollars/barrel, with a 0.25% increase, and the SC price decreased by 6.3 yuan/barrel, with a 1.27% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the price of NYM RBOB increased by 0.56 cents/gallon, with a 0.28% increase, and the price of ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.75 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Crack Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the US gasoline crack spread decreased by 1 US dollars/barrel, with a 4.73% decrease, and the European gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.48 US dollars/barrel, with a 2.44% decrease. [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a certain range. The high - price caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of caustic soda this week is 818,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.9% (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). According to Baichuan data, the output of liquid caustic soda is 824,200 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the output of flake caustic soda is 104,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week. There are more maintenance activities this week [3]. Inventory - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide is 243,000 tons (in terms of 100% purity), a 0.4% increase compared to last week. According to Longzhong data, the in - factory inventory of liquid caustic soda (samples of fixed liquid caustic soda with 200,000 tons and above) is 378,300 wet tons, a 6.02% increase compared to last week [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is 328 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease compared to last week. This week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda weakens, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increases, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali enterprises decreases slightly [3]. Demand - **Alumina**: Recently, the continuous decline in the prices of domestic and overseas alumina has continuously narrowed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises. Except for regular maintenance, insufficient supply of domestic ores, and the impact of heavy rain, there are no signs of large - scale production cuts among domestic enterprises. Coupled with the continuous import of overseas supplies in the later period, the support for spot prices from the supply side is weak in the short term [3]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The market price of viscose staple fiber has remained stable this week [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a range. The high - price liquid caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [5]. Caustic Soda Futures Market - **Futures prices**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts are 2,723 yuan/ton, 2,734 yuan/ton, and 2,641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% respectively [5]. - **Monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) are - 11, 93, and - 82 respectively, with daily changes of 11, - 17, and 6 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) are - 317, - 328, and - 235 respectively, with daily changes of - 55, - 44, and - 61 respectively [5]. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 2.2% [7]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands remain unchanged, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% [8]. - **Flake caustic soda**: The market prices in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025 [8]. Price Spreads - Most of the caustic soda brand/regional price spreads remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong), which increased by 50 yuan/ton [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC market in the fourth quarter is expected to first rebound with the macro - situation and then return to fundamentals and delivery logic. For trading strategies, it includes unilateral interval operations, option strategies, and month - spread strategies [3][78]. - The caustic soda market in the fourth quarter is expected to have short - term price stimulation due to alumina stockpiling and then return to seasonal surplus. Trading strategies involve unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market 1. Three - quarter Supply Review - The overall operation of existing PVC plants was stable in the first quarter, and seasonal maintenance in the second and third quarters affected supply. The average operation rate in the first three quarters was about 76.8%, and the output was about 17.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. There were many new plant commissions from July to September [3][16]. 2. Three - quarter Demand Review - The apparent demand in the first three quarters was about 15.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Terminal demand was at a seasonal low, and speculative demand was average. Real estate data was weak, and cement demand and prices had been weak since 2024. Exports from January to July were relatively strong, with PVC powder exports of 2.291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons (56.9%), while floor exports decreased by 11.15% year - on - year [20][32][34]. 3. Three - quarter Inventory Review - In the third quarter, inventory shifted from upstream to mid - stream, and both started to accumulate recently. Due to weak demand and the futures price being higher than the spot price, there was a lot of selling hedging by upstream and futures - cash traders, and inventory shifted to the delivery warehouse. As of September 17, the warehouse receipt volume was 110,900, the highest in history [42][46]. 4. Fourth - quarter Supply Outlook - There will be some maintenance in October, and then maintenance will decrease. There is a possibility of capacity exit in existing plants. Newly commissioned plants have been postponed but will be concentrated recently, and the supply pressure will be reflected in the fourth quarter [52][53][57]. 5. Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook - It is difficult for domestic demand to have incremental demand in the fourth quarter. In terms of exports, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on China. India has strong demand, but the anti - dumping tax rate has been adjusted to $122 - 232 per ton [3][71]. 6. Fourth - quarter Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Unilateral interval operations. PVC is still in an oversupply situation, but low valuation and falling caustic soda prices provide support. It is expected to trade on macro - improvement factors from September to October and then return to fundamentals. - Strategy 2: Option strategies. Sell out - of - the - money put options on V2601 at relatively low prices and sell out - of - the - money call options on V2601 after the price rebounds. - Strategy 3: Month - spread strategies. Go for positive spreads between January and May contracts and look for positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts [78]. Caustic Soda Market 1. Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Market Review - The spot price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance, downstream replenishment, and changes in liquid chlorine prices. The futures market has also shown significant fluctuations, affected by factors like inventory accumulation, market sentiment, and alumina stockpiling [81][83]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Review - The output in the first three quarters was about 31.703 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. There were new plant commissions in the third quarter, and some capacity exited. Non - aluminum demand improved in Q3, and paper - making operations were divided. Exports from January to July 2025 were 2.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.3% [85][95]. 3. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Outlook - There is a total of 1.05 million tons of capacity to be commissioned, mainly from September to October. The commissioning compliance rate is 50 - 60%. It is expected that the operation rate will recover in late September, decline in October, and remain relatively high from November to December. There is still new demand for alumina commissioning and stockpiling in the fourth quarter, but attention should be paid to the impact of alumina over - supply on demand [98][100][103]. 4. Caustic Soda Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The near - term is weak, and it is advisable to buy low - priced contracts for the peak season. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse spreads from non - stockpiling months to stockpiling months, positive spreads from stockpiling months to off - peak months, long caustic soda and short alumina during alumina commissioning and stockpiling, and short caustic soda and long alumina when alumina is in over - supply and production is cut [138].