Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce and the Municipal Development and Reform Commission have jointly issued a plan to promote high-quality development of service trade and digital trade in Shenzhen, focusing on enhancing international transportation service capabilities [1] Group 1: International Transportation Services - The plan aims to expand international shipping routes to Europe, Oceania, and Africa, and to increase the frequency of cross-border e-commerce shipping lines [1] - It includes the expansion of bonded fuel oil and LNG refueling services for international vessels, which will drive the internationalization of various upstream and downstream business entities [1] Group 2: Aviation and Logistics - The initiative seeks to leverage low-altitude intelligent infrastructure to explore cross-border helicopter flights between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as well as emergency rescue public services in general aviation [1] - There is a goal to expand the approval authority for international express delivery business (agency) operations [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8]. Core Insights - The passenger load factor continues to improve, with domestic passenger volume increasing by 6% year-on-year and international passenger volume rising by 21% [3][13]. - The average domestic bare ticket price has increased by 1.5% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in oil-inclusive ticket prices due to fuel surcharges [3][22]. - The shipping sector is experiencing a price increase on the US routes, with the SCFI index rising by 30.7% to 2,073 points, indicating a positive trend in container shipping [4][48]. - The logistics sector shows a rebound in air freight prices, particularly on US routes, driven by a reversal in US tariff policies, leading to a strong recovery in air cargo volumes [5][52]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger load factor increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while international load factor rose by 2.1 percentage points [3][22]. - The domestic passenger volume's seven-day moving average shows a year-on-year increase of 6%, while international passenger volume's increase is 21% [3][13]. Maritime Transport - The average VLCC-TCE rate fell by 26.7% to $28,000 per day, indicating short-term pressure on oil transportation [4][41]. - The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 30.7% to 2,073 points, reflecting a positive outlook for shipping rates [4][48]. - The BDI index increased by 5.8% to 1,418 points, suggesting a rebound in large vessel rates due to demand inquiries for June [4][49]. Logistics - The volume of postal express deliveries reached 4.15 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [5][52]. - The average price for bulk commodity road transport decreased by 8.8% year-on-year, indicating a weak market for bulk goods [5][52]. - Air freight prices at Pudong Airport increased by 6.1% week-on-week, driven by strong recovery in air cargo volumes due to favorable tariff changes [5][52].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government is responding to the U.S. decision to impose port fees on Chinese shipping and logistics companies, emphasizing the need to enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong's shipping industry and establish a dedicated agency for its development [1][2]. Group 1: Government Response and Initiatives - The Hong Kong government is closely monitoring the situation and will establish the Hong Kong Maritime and Port Development Council to support the shipping industry [1]. - Recent measures have been implemented to strengthen the resilience of the shipping industry against external challenges [1]. - The government plans to focus on four key areas: enhancing the maritime ecosystem, seizing green shipping opportunities, deepening Hong Kong's role as an international platform, and expanding domestic and international market opportunities [1][2]. Group 2: Enhancing Maritime Ecosystem - Initiatives include introducing tax incentives for commodity traders and optimizing existing tax benefits for the shipping industry, with proposals to be submitted to the Legislative Council in the first half of next year [1]. - The government will continue to provide green cash incentives for registered vessels and implement bulk registration benefits [1]. Group 3: Green Shipping Opportunities - The government has launched the "Green Marine Fuel Supply Action Plan" to position Hong Kong as a high-quality green marine fuel supply center [2]. - This initiative aims to facilitate the supply and trading of green marine fuels, aligning with international green transition trends [2]. Group 4: International Engagement - Efforts are being made to deepen cooperation with international maritime organizations, with the recent "Hong Kong Maritime Week" being the most internationalized to date [2]. - The government is actively promoting Hong Kong's advantages to attract international shipping organizations and will establish a dedicated team in the Middle East to enhance outreach [2]. Group 5: Market Expansion - The government aims to leverage Hong Kong's "internal and external connectivity" to help local shipping companies tap into mainland and international markets [2]. - Initiatives include establishing intermodal transport connections and utilizing a new port community system to improve efficiency and reduce costs for the industry [2].

研究所 宏观研究 5月经济高频数据环比回暖 投资要点 (1)5月经济景气度环比回升,稳增长政策效果仍需释放 从高频数据来看,5月经济景气度环比有所回暖,稳增长政策效 果显现,工业需求环比回升,消费具有季节性回升特点,面对外部高 不确定性,短期市场微观主体情绪趋于谨慎,生产表现为以订单驱动 的特点,生产表现相对平稳,但整体表现为供过于求的态势,有效需 求不足仍是制约经济的核心矛盾,带来要素市场景气度回落,PPI 同 比增速跌幅或进一步扩大,符合我们在报告《4月经济呈现供给驱动 特征,应超前关注科技产业对投资的补充》的基准假设。在此情境下, 基于避险和对政策不确定性的恐慌,在美国对我国加征关税的 90天 豁免期内,美国或加大进口,以避免未来不确定性影响,这或支撑短 期我国出口韧性,亦维持短期生产稳定。但因市场微观主体偏于谨慎, 企业生产或以订单驱动,投资扩产意愿下降:以内需为主的企业或担 忧外贸转内需的潜在影响,其投资扩产亦受一定冲击:市场微观个体 对就业和收入预期或有所下降,居民预算约束趋严,进而对消费形成 收缩压力。在此背景下,国内稳增长政策可对冲部分外部冲击影响, 但 PPI 同比增速跌幅进一步扩大,或指向 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) is shifting its LNG carrier orders from Chinese shipyards to South Korean companies due to operational risks associated with increasing the number of Chinese vessels amid ongoing US-China tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - MOL has decided to pause new orders for LNG carriers from Chinese shipyards, opting instead for South Korean firms as a reliable alternative [1]. - As of March 31, MOL owns 107 LNG carriers, leading the global market, and plans to increase its fleet to 140 by the fiscal year 2028, representing a 30% increase from March 2025 [1]. - The company has recently ordered 6 vessels from Chinese shipyards, but these contracts will remain intact despite the shift in strategy [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global shipbuilding market sees China holding over 50% of new orders, ranking second in LNG vessel orders, just behind South Korea [2]. - Japanese shipbuilders have struggled to secure new orders over the past decade due to labor shortages, leading to a reduction in production capacity [2]. - The US government has announced plans to impose port fees on Chinese-built vessels, which could further complicate the operational landscape for Japanese shipping companies [3]. Group 3: Energy Policy Implications - Japan is increasing its LNG imports from the US, with 6.34 million tons expected in 2024, accounting for 10% of total imports [3]. - The environmental benefits of LNG, which has 20-30% lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to oil, are driving future demand for LNG as a fuel for shipping and power generation [3]. - If port fees are applied to Chinese vessels, the transportation costs for LNG could rise, potentially impacting Japan's energy policy [3].

Core Insights - The surge in freight demand has led to a significant increase in shipping prices in the US market, with rates for 40-foot containers rising by up to $3,000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current shipping situation is characterized by tight capacity and rapidly changing information, making online booking akin to "ticket grabbing" [1] - Several shipping companies have announced plans to increase rates for routes from Asia to the US, reflecting the combined effects of supply and demand changes in the market [1]

Group 1 - The total net profit of Japanese listed companies is expected to decline by 7% in the fiscal year 2025, marking the first year-on-year profit drop in six years [1][3] - Key industries such as automotive, steel, and shipping are expected to perform poorly due to the burden of US tariffs and yen appreciation [1][3] - The automotive sector, heavily reliant on the US market, is projected to see a profit decrease of 32%, with Honda's profit expected to drop by 70% among the major automotive companies [1][3] Group 2 - The steel industry is anticipated to experience a profit reduction of 27%, with Nippon Steel's profit expected to decrease by 43% due to tariff impacts [3] - The non-manufacturing sector's profits are also expected to decline by 7%, particularly in the shipping industry, where tariffs could reduce combined profits by up to 170 billion yen (approximately 8.52 billion RMB) [3] - Despite the profit decline, the overall net profit for Japanese listed companies is projected to reach 47.36 trillion yen (approximately 2.37 trillion RMB), the second-highest level since March 2008 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The resumption of the ZX2 express line by Yixing Shipping is expected to enhance cross-border logistics service levels and transportation efficiency between China and the United States, facilitating faster access for Chinese goods to the U.S. consumer market [2][4]. Group 1: ZX2 Express Line Resumption - The ZX2 express line officially resumed operations on May 23, with the "Yixing Colorado" vessel departing from Xiamen Port, loaded with cross-border e-commerce products bound for Los Angeles [2]. - The ZX2 line is exclusively operated by Yixing Shipping and serves as an efficient logistics channel between Southeast China and the U.S. West Coast, utilizing five vessels with a capacity of 5,300 to 5,500 TEUs [2]. - The route will connect major ports including Xiamen, Shanghai, Ningbo, and Los Angeles, with a transit time of 17 to 18 days from Xiamen to Los Angeles [2]. Group 2: Port Operations and Support - Xiamen Port International Container Terminal has established a comprehensive support mechanism involving customs, maritime, and border inspection departments to ensure smooth vessel departures [3]. - The port is implementing measures such as pre-scheduled berthing, 24-hour consultation services for anomalies, and "zero wait time" for port procedures to facilitate the export of Chinese products [3]. Group 3: Market Demand and Trends - There has been a noticeable increase in business volume in the China-U.S. shipping market, with U.S. clients placing concentrated orders, leading to a significant rise in booking volumes for freight forwarding companies [4]. - As the traditional inventory peak season approaches in June and July, demand for shipping space from China to North America is expected to grow, despite ongoing capacity releases by shipping companies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of tariffs between China and the United States has led to a surge in cross-border trade, with American companies significantly increasing their orders for Chinese goods, resulting in heightened shipping and warehousing pressures [1]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Following the tariff reductions, American traditional retail clients have begun to clear backlogged orders, leading to a peak in cross-border shipping activities [1]. - The surge in orders has caused shipping rates for routes from China to the U.S. to increase due to high demand for container space [1]. Group 2: Business Recovery - Many projects that were previously stalled due to tariffs are now being revived, with Chinese imports of equipment and materials resuming [1]. - American businesses are increasing their procurement of medical products and health supplement raw materials from China, with inventory levels reaching a six-month supply [1]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The previous tariff policies had caused shortages and stockouts for small and medium-sized businesses on American e-commerce platforms [1]. - The ongoing challenges in the supply chain and potential price increases for raw materials and goods may persist for some time, affecting the overall market dynamics in the U.S. [1].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sales momentum is declining, while passenger car sales remain resilient; construction demand still needs improvement, and concerns over external demand are marginally easing, with an increase in China's export orders to the U.S. and a rebound in port cargo throughput and freight rates [1]. Group 1: Real Estate and Consumer Sales - Real estate sales continue to be weak, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities; first-tier cities saw a 12.4% increase, while second-tier cities experienced a 30.2% decrease, and third-tier cities had a 7.0% increase [2]. - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 30% year-on-year from May 6 to May 11, driven by national subsidy policies and promotional events [2]. - The demand for durable consumer goods, particularly automobiles, remains strong, while the film box office revenue has significantly declined both year-on-year and month-on-month [1][2]. Group 2: Construction and Manufacturing - The construction demand remains weak, influenced by local rainfall, with resource prices showing divergence; rebar and hot-rolled coil prices increased by 1.6% and 2.5% week-on-week, respectively [3]. - Manufacturing activity has seen a rebound, with significant increases in operating rates for the automotive sector and a 5.6% week-on-week increase in the operating rate for petroleum asphalt facilities [3]. - The prices of copper and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 2.8% week-on-week, respectively, supported by improved demand expectations due to the easing of U.S.-China tariff tensions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to decline, with metro passenger volume in major cities showing a 4.6% increase year-on-year but a 0.3% decrease month-on-month [4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.3% week-on-week but increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 4.0% decrease week-on-week but a 17.1% increase year-on-year, recovering to 81.8% of the levels seen in 2019 [4]. - The SCFI/BDI indices increased by 10.0% and 6.9% week-on-week, respectively, indicating a recovery in port cargo throughput and container volume [4].