Market Overview - The A-share market showed divergence with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declining while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a minor increase, and the ChiNext Index leading the gains, driven by the technology growth sector [4] - The ChiNext Index broke through short-term moving average resistance, continuing its rebound trend, while the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated below 4100 points, indicating intensified market contention [4] Market Performance - A total of 2,843 stocks rose, with a rise-fall ratio of 3:13, indicating a clear structural opportunity in the market, with profits concentrated in specific sectors [5] - The total trading volume in both markets was 3.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.12%, yet still within a high range, reflecting significant stock market competition [6] Sector Analysis - Growth sectors such as port shipping, internet e-commerce, and storage chips led the market gains, while cyclical sectors like steel, precious metals, and coal experienced declines [6] - Institutional investors displayed precise positioning by reducing holdings in previously high-performing cyclical resources and blue-chip stocks, while increasing investments in semiconductor, AI hardware, and innovative pharmaceuticals within the technology growth sector [8] Investor Sentiment - Main funds showed a net outflow, while retail investors experienced a net inflow, indicating a contrasting investment behavior [7] - Retail investors demonstrated a tendency to follow the main growth lines, focusing on technology growth and oversold rebound sectors, with a moderate willingness to chase high prices [8] Trading Behavior - As of March 16, 2023, 75.85% of retail investors reported being optimistic about the market, with 52.17% fully invested, 28.16% below full investment, and 6.26% in cash [9][19] - The sentiment towards asset recovery showed that 44.99% of investors were within a 20% loss range, while 3.45% reported gains exceeding 50% [21]

Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a slight adjustment with a notable structural differentiation, closing at 4084.79 points, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.19% to 14307.58 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.41% to 3357.02 points, indicating a recovery trend after a dip [2][5] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.34 trillion, reflecting active market participation with 2843 stocks rising and 2489 falling, suggesting an improvement in market profitability [2][5] Sector Performance - The technology sector led the market with significant gains in sub-sectors such as memory chips and advanced packaging, with increases of 5.52%, 4.09%, and 4.08% respectively, driven by anticipated price hikes in the global semiconductor industry [5] - The shipping sector also performed well, rising by 3.59%, influenced by geopolitical changes in the Middle East affecting shipping routes and price expectations [5] - Conversely, traditional cyclical sectors like steel, non-ferrous metals, and coal saw declines, with drops of 3.08% to 1.06%, indicating profit-taking pressures in previously high-performing stocks [5] Short-term Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue exhibiting structural characteristics, with a rotation between technology growth and traditional cyclical sectors being the main theme [7] - The upcoming disclosure of annual reports in late March will be crucial for stock performance, with companies showing better-than-expected earnings likely to attract market interest [7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market experienced a comprehensive decline, with the 30-year bond futures dropping by 0.43% to 110.63, reflecting cautious market sentiment [11] - Economic data from January to February showed fixed asset investment at 52,721 billion, up 1.8% year-on-year, and retail sales at 86,079 billion, up 2.8%, indicating a strengthening economic recovery that may exert pressure on the bond market [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose, with the Nanhua Commodity Index closing at 3160.68, up 0.11%, led by significant increases in petrochemical products such as asphalt, which surged by 10.63% [11] - Brent crude oil prices stabilized above $100 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions, which also supported the rise in asphalt prices due to increased production costs [11][13] Trading Hotspots - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and robotics, all of which are expected to benefit from technological advancements and policy support [14] - The brokerage sector is also highlighted due to high trading volumes in the A-share market, with potential changes in trading regulations being a point of interest [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses four strategies for hedging against rising oil prices, emphasizing that high inflation may weaken non-US assets while making Chinese assets more attractive due to lower dependency on oil [1][2] - The ongoing rise in oil prices is expected to drive up prices in the basic chemical and related agricultural sectors, with oil prices remaining the primary trading focus [1][2] - The article highlights the impact of soaring energy prices, suggesting a dual focus on coal and renewable energy construction, particularly in storage, wind, solar, lithium batteries, and grid infrastructure [2] Group 2 - The steel industry is undergoing a significant transformation due to policy changes and geopolitical factors, with domestic emission reduction policies marking the practical implementation of carbon neutrality [3] - The article notes that the overseas steel supply-demand balance is expected to reverse by 2024, with a projected shortfall rate of -2.3% by 2025, driven by high energy costs affecting overseas electric furnace production [3][4] - China's crude steel production peaked around 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.43% expected from 2020 to 2024, and a target of approximately 850 million tons by 2030 [4]

Group 1: Liquidity - The issuance scale of equity public funds has returned to a historical high, with new fund issuance reaching 198.2 billion units, up from 31.2 billion units previously, marking a 95% percentile in the last three years[9] - Margin financing net inflow was approximately 48.8 billion, a significant increase from the previous outflow of 253.1 billion, placing it at the 57% percentile over the last three years[13] - Southbound capital net inflow surged to 465 billion, returning to a historical high, while equity financing decreased to 38.1 billion, at the 22% percentile[25][36] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat index for the chemical industry increased by 23 percentage points to 63%, while the construction sector rose by 19 percentage points to 79%[42] - The media sector saw a decline of 30 percentage points to 55%, and the real estate sector decreased by 16 percentage points to 28%[42] - The overall trading volume for stock ETFs turned negative at -74 billion, down from a previous inflow of 45.6 billion, placing it at the 23% percentile[20] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor net inflow in A-shares was 1430.3 billion, a decrease of 694.2 billion from the previous week, placing it at the 80% percentile over the past five years[2] - The search interest for A-shares on social media platforms has declined, indicating a decrease in market enthusiasm amid external geopolitical and liquidity disturbances[66] - The trend of public funds clustering has intensified, with a focus on value and sectors like consumption and cyclical industries[2]

Core Viewpoint - Shougang Resources (00639.HK) will hold a board meeting on March 26, 2026, to approve the annual results for the year ending December 31, 2025, and consider the proposal for the final dividend distribution [1] Group 1 - The board meeting is scheduled for March 26, 2026 [1] - The meeting will focus on approving the annual performance of the company and its subsidiaries for the year ending December 31, 2025 [1] - The board will also consider the proposal for the final dividend distribution if appropriate [1]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3220 yuan (-), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3160 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+10), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - Market trend: Steel prices maintained a volatile trend with low overall volatility, and spot trading volume was generally weak. The prices were basically stable compared to Friday, with mainly rigid demand purchasing at low prices [5] - Production and inventory: Last week, the production of five major steel products increased slightly, with rebar production continuing to increase and hot-rolled coil production decreasing. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline this week. Downstream demand has seasonally recovered, but inventory is still accumulating rapidly, especially for rebar. Hot-rolled coil has started to reduce inventory this week [5] - Demand and supply: The capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved recently, but the resumption of work and capital situation are still weaker than in previous years. Export orders for hot-rolled coil have been good recently, improving its supply and demand situation, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand [5] - Cost factors: Overseas geopolitical frictions have increased recently, leading to continuous increases in energy prices and shipping freight rates. If the frictions intensify, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. After the market closed, news indicated that the sales of Newman powder were blocked, which may affect the subsequent supply of iron ore [5] - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7] Group 3: Important Information - National fixed asset investment from January to February 2026 increased by 1.8% year-on-year [8] - From January to February, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 535.372 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. Among them, the floor area under construction of residential buildings was 371.347 million square meters, a decrease of 11.9%. The new construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%. Among them, the new construction area of residential buildings was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. The completed area was 63.2 million square meters, a decrease of 27.9%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 46.25 million square meters, a decrease of 26.9% [8][9] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the basis, price differences, and profit margins of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts, as well as the cash profits and cost differences of different steel products [14][16][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: Cost has support, and opportunities to go long can be sought after the basis weakens. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand after the Two Sessions, but price rebound elasticity may be suppressed under high inventory [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors, and the uncertainty is strong. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in geopolitical themes [60]. - **Iron Ore**: BHP's iron ore supply is restricted again, and iron ore prices have risen significantly. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Supply**: Affected by previous environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, with a decrease of 6.4 to 221.2 wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonal average. After the Two Sessions, production may gradually increase [5]. - **Demand**: Construction material demand is seasonally rising, with both supply and demand increasing. There is no sign of exceeding the seasonal average. Hot - rolled coil production has decreased following the recent decline in pig iron production, while apparent demand has slightly increased. Cold - rolled and medium - plate supply and demand are slightly stronger [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products is still accumulating, but the amplitude is narrowing. Only construction materials (rebar + wire rod) are still accumulating inventory, while plate inventory has begun to decline. The billet inventory also shows signs of reaching the peak and falling. The total inventory level of the five major steel products is at a historical neutral level, with construction material inventory being low and plate and billet inventory being slightly high [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coil and rebar has declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 78, a week - on - week decrease of 14; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 25, a week - on - week decrease of 25 [5]. - **Profit**: After the Spring Festival, the increase in furnace charge prices is slightly higher than that of finished products, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the rebar profit is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13%, with a weekly change of 3.03% [5]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coil has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coil is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is not high [5]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: Geopolitical factors still affect the market. Although the black - metal sector's supply and demand are mainly domestic and less sensitive to geopolitical factors, there is an overflow effect on market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be affected, providing upward impetus through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term long. In the context of high inventory, the price rebound elasticity may be suppressed. The derivatives market is currently focused on the price pulse increase in the energy - chemical chain triggered by geopolitical issues. There is no unilateral trend - driving market, and pulse - type rebound bands can be participated in. After the recent basis weakens, attention can be paid to basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, with hot - rolled coil being the best choice [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Participate in pulse - type rebounds. Arbitrage: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is in the range of [140, 180]. Cash - and - carry: Opportunities for basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coil [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is slowing down. During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place. The average daily pig iron production of 247 steel mills this week was 221.20 (- 6.39), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13% (+ 3.03%). Although pig iron production decreased rapidly this week due to environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions, production resumed in the second half of the week, but the data did not reflect it [60]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports remains at a high level, and the port trade quotes are firm. However, the willingness to accept high - priced Mongolian coal is still insufficient, and most enterprises are still observing the price trend of coking coal and coke. The overseas coking coal price in Australia is weakly stable, and the forward price is slightly stronger due to the tense international situation [60]. - **Coke Supply**: During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place for coking plants. This week, the average daily coke production was 110.9 (-), and the coking profit was - 3 (- 20). Affected by the increase in the price of chemical by - products, although the coke price adjustment was implemented and the raw coal price increased, the actual profit of coking plants was relatively good [60]. - **Inventory**: The downstream procurement sentiment has increased. The supply of coal mines in the production areas is sufficient. Although the downstream inventory is still sufficient, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the market procurement sentiment has increased, and the inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, which is beneficial to prices [60]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the first round of price cuts was implemented, the sharp rise in crude oil interrupted the price - cut cycle. After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and the trade warehouse - receipt remains around 1730 before the price cuts. The price of Mongolian raw coal has rebounded to around 1090, and the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1200 [60]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13% (+ 3.03%), and the coking profit is - 3 (- 20) [60]. - **Summary**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the market trend. The high - level volatility of crude oil has also driven the strengthening of other commodities. The market is mainly concerned about the situation in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a state of de - facto closure. The storage and continuous production characteristics of crude oil are still the biggest risk points in the future. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the navigation situation in the strait. In the market, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered, the coking coal and coke auction prices have mostly increased, and the coke price - cut cycle has temporarily stopped. There is no current plan to raise prices [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Temporarily observe. Arbitrage: Consider gradually establishing cash - and - carry positions. Risk concerns: Changes in coal mine production policies, changes in steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [60]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 12.7 tons per day to 417 tons per day. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia increased by 21.5 tons per day, that from Brazil decreased by 2.4 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines decreased by 6.4 tons per day to 68 tons per day. In terms of arrivals, the total arrivals in China increased by 24.8 tons per day week - on - week, with arrivals from Australia increasing by 23.4 tons per day, arrivals from Brazil decreasing by 20.3 tons per day, and arrivals from non - mainstream sources increasing by 21.7 tons per day [112]. - **Demand**: This period, the pig iron production of steel mills decreased by 6.39 to 221.2 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the phased emission reduction control requirements during the Two Sessions. After the end of the restrictions, pig iron production is expected to continue to increase in mid - March. The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly to 332.33 tons, and the port inventory has increased by 52.49 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year. Affected by the low - inventory operation of steel mills, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has increased slightly by 52.49 tons to 17947.32 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [112]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [112]. - **Summary**: There are rumors in the market about restrictions on the procurement of Newman powder, which has an impact on the market. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Neutral [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips. Arbitrage: Temporarily observe. Risk concerns: Trade frictions and macro - level policies [112].

Policy Developments - The National People's Congress plans to amend several laws, including the bidding and procurement laws, to support the establishment of a unified national market[2] - A negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies will be established to clarify prohibited subsidy scenarios for local governments[2] - The State Council is focusing on reducing production capacity in industries such as steel and refining, while optimizing the layout of industries like ethylene and paraxylene[2] Technology Industry - The article in "Qiushi" emphasizes the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on innovation and the development of emerging marine industries[3] - The government plans to support high-tech enterprises and small and medium-sized technology firms through tax incentives and special funds[3] Foreign Trade - Recent U.S. trade investigations against multiple economies, including China, cite "overcapacity" and "forced labor" as reasons for the inquiries[3] - The Chinese government is analyzing the implications of these investigations and is prepared to take necessary measures to protect its interests[3] Economic Measures - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support key projects, including technology self-reliance and ecological protection[14] - A total of 7,550 billion yuan will be allocated for central budget investments, with a focus on timely project execution[14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating that leading companies are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced profitability in the medium to long term [4][21]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown strong performance in sub-segments such as plate and special steel, with year-to-date increases of 10.37%, 9.31%, and 8.85% for plate, special steel, and pipe segments respectively [4][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has initiated an "Industrial Data Foundation Action" aimed at constructing high-quality industry data sets to empower artificial intelligence applications, with the steel industry identified as a key focus area [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing product structures and highlights the potential for stable high dividends from leading companies such as Baosteel, Shougang, and CITIC Special Steel [21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector has seen a mixed performance with 19 companies rising in stock value, while 57.78% of stocks experienced declines during the week of March 8 to March 15, 2026 [8]. - The top five performers in the steel sector during this week were Jiugang Hongxing, Hainan Mining, Dazhong Mining, Zhongnan Co., and Anyang Steel, with increases of 17.46%, 10.33%, 10.30%, 3.65%, and 3.44% respectively [8][9]. Industry Events - The MIIT's notification on March 10 outlines a plan to establish a collaborative framework among leading companies in the steel sector to enhance data collection and utilization, aiming for breakthroughs in industrial data bottlenecks by the end of 2026 [10][11]. - The initiative includes the creation of a trusted interconnection platform for industry data, which will facilitate the development of high-quality, standardized, and shareable industry data sets [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with optimized product structures and stable high dividends, such as Baosteel, Shougang, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [21]. - It also highlights companies with high technical barriers that can withstand market pressures, suggesting attention to Fangda Special Steel, New Steel, and Jiuli Special Materials [21]. - Additionally, it points to upstream resource companies that may benefit from improved supply dynamics, recommending Baotou Steel, Hainan Mining, Hebei Steel Resources, and Jinling Mining [21].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend, with both futures and spot prices rising. The drivers are from two aspects: macroscopically, geopolitical conflicts have pushed up energy prices and spread to the commodity market; industrially, construction steel presents a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and inventory accumulation slowing down". The current production and inventory levels are at the lowest in the same period of the past five years, providing support for prices [1]. - Looking ahead, there are disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost side continues to rise. Construction sites are gradually resuming work, the spot trading of building materials is gradually recovering, and the apparent demand has returned to the level of the same period last year, but it is still in the off - season. Geopolitical conflicts still have great uncertainties, and the US has launched a new trade investigation, which is negative for steel exports. After the Two Sessions, there is still room for blast furnace复产, the upward driving force of the futures market is limited, and there is pressure after the price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend, with both futures and spot prices rising. The driving factors are macro - geopolitical conflicts and industrial "supply - demand and inventory" patterns [1]. - In the future, furnace material supply is disturbed, cost rises, construction site work resumes, but it is still in the off - season. Geopolitical conflicts and US trade investigations are negative for exports. After the Two Sessions, there is room for blast furnace复产, and the futures price has pressure after the rebound [1]. 2. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 221.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 million tons, or - 2.81%. The inventory of rebar steel mills was 239.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons, or 0.71%. The social inventory of rebar was 654.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.80 million tons, or 2.63%. The inventory of hot - rolled coil steel mills was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.80 million tons, or - 0.89%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons, or 0.18% [3]. 3. Market Review - **Futures Market**: The report presents multiple charts related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, the price difference between 05 and 10 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the disk, and the speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][7][9]. - **Spot Market**: The report shows charts of the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price in Shanghai, the rebar basis, and the hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report includes charts of the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, seasonal analysis of rebar and hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory, and seasonal analysis of rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory [15][19][21]