不过，特朗普随后表示，美欧谈判代表正在紧密合作，以推动达成协议。美国和欧盟谈判人员正在密切合作。特朗普还预测协议可能会取得成 果。"我认为欧盟达成协议的几率相当高"。特朗普这番表态凸显贸易谈判的形势瞬息万变。据央视新闻，特朗普对外表示，美国与欧盟或将就关 税谈判达成协议。 欧盟对达成协议表示乐观 媒体报道，欧洲官员和外交官表示，欧盟与美国可能于本周末达成贸易协议。欧元兑美元维持大约0.2%的跌幅，交投于1.1730一线。 据央视新闻，当地时间25日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与美国总统特朗普举行电话会谈，围绕当前欧美贸易关系交换意见。 当地时间周五稍早，特朗普表示，与欧盟达成降低关税的贸易协议的可能性为50%。"我认为我们与欧盟达成协议的可能性是50%，也许还不到， 但大概是50%。"特朗普表态后，欧元兑美元盘中一度跌0.38%。 据央视新闻，据冯德莱恩发布的消息，双方在通话中达成一致，计划于本月27日在苏格兰举行面对面会谈，重点讨论欧美之间的贸易合作及相关 争议问题。此次即将举行的会晤被视为欧美关税谈判的重要环节。 据央视新闻此前报道，特朗普7月12日宣布，将自8月1日起对从欧盟进口的商品征收30%关税。此外， ...

Core Insights - Extreme weather events are increasingly impacting global commodity markets, with significant effects on supply and demand dynamics across various sectors [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact on Commodity Markets - The extreme heat in the Northern Hemisphere has led to record high temperatures in regions such as Spain, France, and Italy, while the Southern Hemisphere is experiencing unprecedented cold [1] - Extreme weather is identified as a key factor affecting global economic stability, with events like heatwaves and droughts posing significant threats to agricultural supply chains [2][3] - High temperatures are causing electricity shortages in certain areas, which may disrupt industrial production continuity [2][3] Group 2: Price Movements and Market Reactions - The coal, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors in the A-share market have seen significant price increases, with indices rising by 7.22%, 10.75%, and 17.94% respectively since July [3] - In the futures market, coal and steel indices have surged by 38.47% and 2.56% respectively, reflecting strong demand driven by extreme weather conditions [3][4] - Agricultural markets are experiencing mixed effects, with high temperatures potentially leading to reduced yields for crops like corn and wheat, while also benefiting others like soybeans under certain conditions [3][4] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios to mitigate risks associated with extreme weather, particularly in sectors highly sensitive to climatic changes [6][7] - The use of weather derivatives, such as temperature index futures, is recommended for hedging against potential declines in agricultural yields and price increases in commodities [8] - The development of weather-related financial instruments in China is progressing, with new temperature indices being introduced to help manage weather risks in agriculture and other sectors [8]

金十数据7月26日讯，巴西一些生铁生产商正考虑停止运营，原因是关税令美国客户的需求减少。美国 是巴西生铁的最大买家。Modulax首席执行官Geraldo Basques表示，该公司将于下周停止运营，并计划 在今年晚些时候进行维护工作。"我们没有复产的日期，"他在接受采访时说，理由是贸易方面的担忧。 竞争对手Css Siderurgica Setelagoana在一份电子邮件声明中说，在等待关税情况更加明朗的同时，公司 正在使用原材料库存进行运营，一旦库存耗尽，它可能被迫停产。此前，美国总统特朗普威胁从8月1日 起对拉美国家征收50%的关税。 由于美国关税威胁抑制需求，巴西生铁生产商或停产 ...

【钢材】 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ★☆★ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热着 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★★☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★★☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅鉄 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日盘面继续上涨。本周螺纹表需明显回暖，产量小幅回升，库存重新下降，热卷需求有所回落，产量继续下滑，库存小幅累 积。铁水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，成本抬升对钢价形成明显支撑。从下游行业看，地产投资继续 大幅下滑，基建、制造业投资增速放缓，内需整体依然偏弱，出口维持相对高位。 "反内卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant revision of the Price Law in China, addressing the challenges of "involution" in various industries and the government's strategic shift towards regulating irrational price competition and promoting orderly exit of excess capacity [1][5][8]. Group 1: Price Law Revision - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly released a draft for the revision of the Price Law, marking the first major update in 27 years [1]. - The draft aims to tackle the new economic challenges, including the prevalence of market-formed prices and the emergence of new economic models, while addressing issues of irrational low-price competition [1][2]. Group 2: Involution and Its Impact - "Involution" is characterized by excess capacity leading to continuous downward pressure on prices, resulting in irrational competition among enterprises [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has been in a downward trend for three consecutive years, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [2]. Group 3: Industry Responses - The solar photovoltaic industry has seen a dramatic price drop of 70% over two years, despite record production, highlighting the adverse effects of overcapacity [4]. - Various industries, including glass and cement, are witnessing collective production cuts and regulatory measures to combat involution, indicating a government-led "capacity reduction 2.0" initiative [4][6]. Group 4: Government Regulation and Market Dynamics - The central government is shifting its focus from merely subsidizing struggling enterprises to establishing rules that allow market mechanisms to function effectively [5]. - The recent signals from the government regarding "anti-involution" have led to significant price increases in upstream resources like polysilicon and coking coal, with related stock markets showing positive reactions [6]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Some market participants anticipate a "反内卷" bull market in 2025, driven by industry consolidation and restructuring, although concerns about the sustainability of A-share market growth remain [7]. - The process of reducing excess capacity may initially suppress output and employment, but it is essential for long-term economic health and stability [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent focus on "anti-involution" in various industries, emphasizing the need to eliminate homogeneous or low-end production capacities and restore a reasonable pricing system to optimize the competitive environment and enhance innovation capabilities in foundational industries [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Current Situation - The main goal of the current "anti-involution" initiative is to address severe homogenization in competition, which has led to a collapse of the overall pricing system due to excess supply and stagnant demand growth [3][4]. - Industries affected include renewable energy, particularly solar power, automotive sectors, and traditional industries like steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum, all of which have experienced downward trends in the past two years [4][5]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is characterized by price wars driven by market share competition, resulting in deteriorating profitability for many companies, particularly in the solar and renewable energy sectors [4][10]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for traditional industries like steel and cement is closely tied to macroeconomic factors, especially real estate, which has seen a decline affecting related sectors [5][6]. - The solar industry experienced rapid growth of 40%-50% from 2021, but demand may fluctuate in the coming months due to policy changes [6]. - The supply side of these industries shows a commonality in underlying technologies and business models, leading to homogenization, although some segments are witnessing continuous technological innovation and product differentiation [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current "anti-involution" measures are compared to previous supply-side reforms in 1998 and 2016, highlighting the evolution of reform strategies as the economic landscape changes [7]. - The 1998 reforms focused on state-owned enterprises, while the 2016 reforms involved both state and private enterprises, with the current adjustments primarily affecting emerging industries dominated by private players [7]. Group 4: Mechanisms of Involution and Future Outlook - The rapid expansion of homogeneous production capacities is driven by factors such as talent mobility, innovation, and capital flow, leading to significant fluctuations in profitability [9][10]. - Future competition may shift from price to product differentiation and performance, depending on the market's focus on cost versus innovation [11][12]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors like steel and solar energy, where certain companies are demonstrating resilience and competitive advantages despite the overall market challenges [16][17]. - The lithium battery supply chain is highlighted, with a distinction between the midstream battery segment, which is experiencing a bifurcation in profitability, and the upstream materials segment facing oversupply issues [16][17].

Group 1 - The current market rally is not over, and recent government messages indicate a commitment to stabilize and improve market conditions [1] - The primary driver of this market rally is the anti-involution measures, which aim to regulate low-price competition and promote industry self-discipline [1][2] - The anti-involution initiative affects a wide range of traditional industries, including photovoltaic, cement, steel, and lithium carbonate, which could lead to increased profits for listed companies as excess capacity is reduced [2] Group 2 - Recent price increases in materials such as silicon, glass, soda ash, and lithium carbonate reflect market confidence, but price rises alone may not sustain the market [3] - The issue of overcapacity could lead to price declines, as the market can only absorb a limited quantity of goods, necessitating a focus on increasing income to support demand [3] - The government has been promoting financial income growth through stock market support, which is seen as a more feasible approach compared to boosting the real estate market [4] Group 3 - The relationship between anti-involution and the stock market is clear, as limiting capacity can enhance company profits and drive stock prices up, which in turn can increase financial income and consumption [4] - The overall sentiment suggests that the stock market is likely to continue rising due to these supportive measures and the positive impact of anti-involution policies [4]

19世纪中叶，银版摄影术传入中国。直至20世纪初，清政府倡导"实业救国"，照相机进入紫禁城，晚清皇帝和后妃主动接受了这束光，甚至成为"发烧 友"。尽管早在1868年，蒸汽动力就首次进入了东北，但几乎没人能想到，就在数十年后，这片土地会借助第二次工业革命的浪潮，迅速发展成为中国最 早的工业化发达地区。 1983年辽宁抚顺龙凤矿矿工 金戈铁马化作钢铁洪流，这片神奇土地挺起了共和国的工业脊梁，同时也铸就起中国工业摄影艺术的丰碑。我们注意到中国工业摄影史中，有这样一位人 物——王玉文，这位土生土长的"矿山之子"在40多年的岁月中，用相机捕捉影像的"灵光"。他所拍摄的每幅照片不仅有工业化的宏大叙事，更有着普通人 一悲一喜的无声倾诉。故事，就这样在镜头内外娓娓道来。 瓦尔特·本雅明在他的《摄影小史》中提出了一个令人心动的概念"灵光"(Aura)，这个概念所描述的是一种时空的超常反应——使远在他方的人与景物超越 时空经纬，仿若近在咫尺，这和东方文化艺术中的"意境"有着异曲同工之妙。 抚顺的阳光 阳光对煤矿工人来说，常有一种亲切的陌生感。 ——路遥《平凡的世界》 大兴安岭挡住了西伯利亚的狂风和温带大陆的荒漠化，小兴安岭挡住了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aims to expand the demand for green certificates, leading to an upward trend in green certificate prices, with expectations for further increases in the future [1][2][3] Group 1: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The notification sets specific green electricity consumption ratios for key industries, including electrolytic aluminum, steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers, with the electrolytic aluminum industry being the only one subject to mandatory assessment [1][4] - The green electricity consumption ratio for electrolytic aluminum, steel, cement, and polysilicon is set between 25.2% and 70%, while new data centers are required to achieve 80% [1][5] - The green certificate market has seen significant growth, with a reported 446 million green certificates traded in 2024, marking a 364% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Implications - The electrolytic aluminum industry is highlighted as a major focus due to its high energy consumption and carbon emissions, with a target of 25% renewable energy usage by 2025 [4][6] - Data centers are recognized as rapidly growing energy consumers, with a specific requirement for 80% green electricity consumption, reflecting ongoing efforts to promote low-carbon development [6][7] - The notification allows for a monitoring phase for most industries, providing a buffer period for companies to adapt to the new policies before mandatory assessments begin [2][7] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - The anticipated increase in green certificate prices is driven by factors such as international recognition of Chinese green certificates and adjustments in supply dynamics [2][3] - Companies in energy-intensive sectors are expected to explore various strategies to meet green electricity consumption targets, balancing economic considerations with sustainability goals [7] - The alignment of local renewable energy consumption responsibilities with industry-specific targets indicates a coordinated approach to enhancing green energy adoption across regions [6][7]

Group 1: Macro Economic Environment - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value fell below expectations, reaching a new low since December 2024, due to ongoing tariff concerns and rising inflation pressures[1] - The service sector outlook improved, leading to a composite PMI reaching a new high since the beginning of the year[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US dropped to a three-month low, indicating a stable employment market[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Environment - The launch of the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the "anti-involution" policy have boosted market sentiment and expectations for inflation stabilization[2] - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of July is a key indicator for future policy directions, particularly regarding the "anti-involution" strategy[2] - Real estate transactions weakened, while the wholesale price index for agricultural products showed fluctuations[2] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Steel prices have rebounded, while cement prices have decreased[2] - Prices for coking coal and coke have significantly increased, with most non-ferrous metal prices rising and gold prices slightly rebounding[2] - Crude oil prices have declined, reflecting broader commodity market trends[2]