| | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/25 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/10 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/11 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/12 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/13 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/24 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

黑色建材日报 2026-02-25 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税，对特朗普政府"关税牌"形成掣肘。目前对华整体 关税为 35%，其中原有 25%关税仍然生效，两项基于 IEEPA 征收的 10%关税被裁定非法，后续或以新的全球 关税加以替代，但具体实施细节尚未明确。海外政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价 格形成扰动。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后，需重点关注 板材需求恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际变化。短期内黑色系大概率延续区 间偏弱震荡格局，趋势性机会尚未明朗。 ...

螺纹钢： （邱跃成，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0016941） 春节后首个交易日，螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3027元/吨，较上一交易收 盘价格下跌28元/吨，跌幅为0.92%，持仓增加9.21万手。现货市场仍基本处于休市局面，局部报价下 跌，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌20元/吨至2880元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌20元/吨至3150元/ 吨。据我的钢铁数据，春节周螺纹产量环比增加1.22万吨至170.38万吨，农历同比下降7.29万吨；热卷 周产量环比增加2.05万吨至309.81万吨，农历同比下降13.62万吨。春节周螺纹总库存环比增加129.22万 吨至716.04万吨，农历同比增加62.91万吨，库存累积幅度偏中性；热卷总库存环比增加63.08万吨至 433.85万吨，农历同比增加45.23万吨，热卷库存处于近五年同期最高水平。今年春节螺纹库存累库幅度 不大，但热卷库存累积较大，尤其是热卷库存处于历年同期高位水平。春节后终端需求恢复仍要一个过 程，预计库存整体仍要继续累积3周左右，库存将面临较大的消化压力。 预计短期螺纹盘面仍以偏弱运 行为主。 铁 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/25 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/10 | 2190 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/11 | 2190 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/12 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/13 | 2190 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/24 | 2191 | 2264 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 环比 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

◎本报记者 一年之计在于春。1月底至2月初，各省（区、市）密集进入"两会时间"。会场内外，"科技创新"成为高 频议题。 原标题：三个关键词解码动能转换新逻辑——二〇二六年地方两会观察（上） 【科技新观察】 从传统产业的淬炼升级，到新兴产业的聚链成势，再到区域创新生态的系统优化，2025年乃至整个"十 四五"以来，各地前沿技术不断涌现，科技与产业深度融合取得新成效，驱动发展动能深刻变革，映照 出一个锐意进取、充满创造活力的新时代中国。 淬火—— 传统产业"原地升维" 传统产业不等于落后产能。现代化产业体系，不止于"去旧迎新"，更以科技淬火，让传统产业"原地升 维"——在原有基础上嫁接新质基因，让老根基长出新动能。 传统产业是山东经济的压舱石。山东省省长周乃翔作政府工作报告时亮出成绩单："十四五"时期，现代 化产业体系实现新跃升，19条标志性产业链立起先进制造业强省四梁八柱，制造业总体规模和综合实力 稳居全国第一梯队。 威海光威复合材料股份有限公司的发展颇具代表性。2025年12月，这家国内最早研发碳纤维的民营企 业，成功获评"国家级制造业单项冠军"。山东省政协委员、公司董事长卢钊钧介绍，企业已实现从T300 到 ...

《卫报》提到，能源价格高企的影响已初现端倪：2025年数据显示，英国货物贸易表现创下历史最差纪 录。英国货物贸易逆差达2483亿英镑，较上年扩大305亿英镑。英国国家统计局表示，尽管服务贸易顺 差达1920亿英镑，但仅能部分弥合货物贸易逆差的扩大缺口。去年，制造业游说团体"英国制造"曾呼吁 政府提供数百万英镑的额外补贴，以防制造业进一步萎缩。 高昂的能源成本已经导致能源密集型行业（包括化工行业）的工厂关闭或停产，而一些公司为了应对不 断上涨的账单，正在裁员或减少工时。报告还指出，盈利能力疲软使得跨国公司更难证明在英国设立新 生产线的合理性，尤其是在竞争市场提供更便宜能源的情况下。 法新社近日报道说，英国电价如此昂贵，主要是因为超过1/4的电力仍然来自天然气，而天然气价格在 俄乌冲突后飙升。虽然批发价格此后有所下降，但仍处于高位。这些成本最终都转嫁到了用户电费账单 上。在钢铁、化工、玻璃和水泥等高耗能行业，企业纷纷警告称，政府提供的支持不足以维持其竞争 力。 【环球时报特约记者 任重】能源价格高企已成为最令英国工业界头疼的问题之一。据英国《卫报》22 日报道，英国工业联合会和英国能源协会的一份最新报告显示，能源 ...

碳足迹，是指由个人、组织、事件或产品直接和间接造成的温室气体排放总量，通常以二氧化碳当量表 示，可分为国家碳足迹、城市碳足迹、组织碳足迹、企业碳足迹、家庭碳足迹、产品碳足迹以及个人碳 足迹。 在各类碳足迹中，产品碳足迹是应用最广的概念。产品碳足迹指的是产品的整个生命周期，包括从原材 料的生产、运输、分销、使用到废弃等流程所产生的碳排放量总和，是衡量生产企业和产品绿色低碳水 平的重要指标。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 加快提升工业产品碳足迹管理水平，建立健全碳足迹管理体系，是促进工业绿色低碳转型的重要途径。 近日，工业和信息化部、生态环境部、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局4部门联合发布了第三批73项工 业产品碳足迹核算规则团体标准推荐清单，涵盖石化、钢铁、有色、建材等13个重点行业。 专家认为，清单聚焦市场需求迫切、减排贡献突出、产业链关联性强、供应链带动作用明显，以及国际 贸易量大的产品领域，将为支撑完善我国产品碳足迹管理体系、助力实现"双碳"目标发挥重要作用。 规范排放管理 确定产品碳足迹是减少企业碳排放行为的第一步。对于企业而言，有助于企业真正了解产品对气候变化 的影响，并由此采取可行 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：601686 证券简称：友发集团 公告编号：2026-021 转债代码：113058 转债简称：友发转债 天津友发钢管集团股份有限公司 关于不提前赎回"友发转债"的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ● 自 2026 年 1 月 27 日至 2026 年 2 月 24 日，天津友发钢管集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"友 发集团"）股票已满足连续 30 个交易日中至少 15 个交易日的收盘价格不低于"友发转债"当期转股价格 的 130%（含 130%），根据《天津友发钢管集团股份有限公司天津友发钢管集团股份有限公司公开发 行可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称《募集说明书》）的约定，已触发"友发转债"有条件赎回条 款。 ● 公司于 2026 年 2 月 24 日召开第五届董事会第二十八次会议，审议通过了《关于不提前赎回"友发转 债"的议案》，公司董事会决定本次不行使"友发转债"的提前赎回权利。同时决定在未来三个月内（即 20 ...

目前，美国会定期修订被纳入高税率的衍生产品清单，使适用50%税率的商品范围不断扩大，目前已超 过400项。欧盟官员指出，这不仅加重了企业负担，也迫使出口商在报关时精确核算产品中钢铁和铝的 含量比例，合规成本高企，削弱了去年贸易协议的实际效果。 欧盟方面表示，拟议中的调整不会影响大宗商品形态的钢铁和铝关税，而仅涉及衍生产品清单。美国贸 易代表办公室未就此置评，欧盟委员会发言人亦拒绝发表评论。 智通财经APP获悉，欧盟官员认为，美国可能在未来数周内收紧并简化对含钢铁和铝产品征收的广泛关 税，此举有望缓解长期困扰跨大西洋关系、并成为美欧贸易谈判关键障碍的金属关税问题。 受此影响，欧洲议会周一决定暂停推进美欧贸易协议的立法审批程序，并要求美方就其最新贸易政策给 出明确解释。尽管如此，知情人士称，美欧双方仍释放出希望维持协议框架的信号，即便向新贸易政策 体系过渡可能需要数月时间。 据知情人士透露，特朗普政府正考虑缩小适用50%关税的"衍生产品"范围，这些产品含有钢铁或铝材。 相关调整最快可能在数周内落地。欧盟方面长期寻求减轻该项关税压力，认为这一做法违反了去年达成 的美欧贸易协议，该协议对大多数欧洲产品设定了15%的关 ...