宏 观 研 究 年中展望报告 浦聚颖 A0230123090007 pujy@swsresearch.com 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 gengpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 (8621)23297818× tuqiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 08 日 星火燎原 ——2025 年中期宏观经济展望 ⚫ 沉星月启：产业"蜕变"vs 政策"革新"。 国 内 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 侯倩楠 A0230524080006 houqn@swsresearch.com 研究支持 转型进入"新阶段"，面临的"新问题"。2022 年以来，转型进入"新阶段"，以地产 为代表的传统链条对经济的贡献出现趋势性下行，经济指标表现分化的同时，产业"冰火 两重天"的情况常见。转型"新 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - The Trump administration is reassessing the semiconductor subsidy policy established during the Biden era, with potential adjustments to "overly generous" subsidies [2][3] - The CHIPS and Science Act, signed by Biden in 2022, allocated $52.7 billion to boost U.S. semiconductor manufacturing and research, aiming to attract manufacturers from Asia [2] - The reassessment may lead to renegotiations of subsidy agreements, impacting companies like TSMC, which received $6 billion in subsidies but increased its investment commitment from $65 billion to $165 billion [2][3] Group 2: Smartphone Market - Counterpoint Research has downgraded the global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 from 4.2% to 1.9% due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies [4][5] - Major smartphone manufacturers Apple and Samsung have also seen their growth expectations revised down, with Apple's forecast dropping from 4% to 2.5% and Samsung's forecast indicating no growth [5][6] - The uncertainty in trade policies and weakening demand in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia are contributing factors to the revised forecasts [5][6] Group 3: Automotive Market in China - In May, BYD led the Chinese automotive market with sales of 382,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a cumulative total of 1.7634 million units sold this year, reflecting a growth rate of 38.7% [7][8] - Traditional automakers like China FAW and Geely are showing significant transformation results, with FAW's sales reaching 261,300 units (up 7.5%) and Geely's sales at 235,200 units (up 46%) [7][8] - New energy vehicle sales are accelerating, with companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng showing substantial growth, while NIO's growth remains relatively flat [7][8]

Group 1 - Chinese customers have a significantly higher demand for quality experiences compared to the global average, with 92% choosing brands based on expected experiences, far exceeding the global level of 70% [1] - 87% of Chinese customers are willing to pay a premium for better experiences, nearly double the global average of 46%, indicating that enhancing experience quality is crucial for attracting customers and translating into commercial value [1] - Emotional dependence is a core factor for successful customer experiences, with 73% of customers whose experiences meet or exceed expectations developing emotional ties to brands, compared to only 5% for those with unmet expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The primary driving force for customer experience in China is "pleasure," which is more significant than "certainty" and "fairness," reflecting the emotional value that Chinese customers place on their experiences [2] - Key factors enhancing "pleasure" include clear communication (57%), experiences aligning with brand promises (56%), and delivery quality (58%), while "fairness" relies on clear communication (61%) and promise fulfillment (58%) [2] - There is room for improvement in areas such as "control," "certainty," and personalization, as well as ESG aspects in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the mobile phone (62%) and banking (61%) sectors in China excel in establishing emotional ties compared to global averages, while insurance (54%) and mobile operators (56%) lag behind [3] - The recommendation willingness (NPS) across various industries in China is higher than the global average, with mobile phones (53%) and banking (58%) showing particularly strong performance [3] - Chinese customers are more reliant on word-of-mouth recommendations for first-time purchase decisions (37% impact) compared to the global average of 23%, and customers acquired through recommendations are more likely to make subsequent recommendations [3] Group 4 - Brands should prioritize optimizing basic experiences such as communication and delivery quality while focusing on differentiated forces like respect and a sense of belonging [4] - Strengthening the emotional value related to "pleasure" and enhancing consistency across all channels are key to building competitive advantages in the Chinese market [4] - Despite the current low trust in AI applications, reasonable optimization could still become a potential breakthrough for experience upgrades [4] Group 5 - Overall, the Chinese customer experience market is characterized by "high expectations, emotional emphasis, and differentiation-driven" features, with brands needing to base their strategies on experience quality and emotional connections to continuously meet dynamic demands [5]

Group 1 - The "618" shopping festival is experiencing significant sales growth, driven by national subsidy policies that stimulate consumer spending [1][2] - Major e-commerce platforms report impressive sales figures, with categories like smartphones, computers, and smart devices seeing over 100% year-on-year growth [1] - Brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Midea have reported sales increases exceeding 200% during the initial phase of the "618" event [1][2] Group 2 - The participation in national subsidies has led to a 283% increase in total sales for home appliances and digital products compared to last year's "Double 11" event [2] - Live streaming sales, particularly in small appliances, have become a significant growth driver, with emerging domestic brands performing exceptionally well [2] - The demand for air conditioners and cleaning appliances is expected to surge in the second quarter, with intensified competition in these categories [2] Group 3 - The continuation of national subsidies is anticipated to positively impact domestic demand for home appliances, benefiting leading brands with strong financial capabilities and comprehensive distribution channels [3] - The implementation of "old for new" policies has significantly boosted consumer spending, with substantial sales figures reported in various regions [3][4] - As of early June, the "old for new" program has led to the sale of millions of home appliances and digital products, contributing to a notable increase in overall sales [3][4]

| 数据来源:商务部 数据截至时间:2025年5月31日 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品类 | 已购数量(万件) | 平均单价(元/台) | 补贴标准 | 资金消耗测算(亿元) | | 汽车 | 412 | | 报废更新:新能源2万、油车1.5万 | 650-680 | | | | | 置换更新:新能源1.5万、油车1.3万 | | | 家电 | 7761.8 | 3450 | 二级能效15%;一级能效20% | 550-580 | | 手机数码 | 5662.9 | 2800 | 单件价格≤6000元,补贴15%,每件补贴≤500元 | 250-260 | | 电动自行车 | 650 | | 未统一补贴标准 | 40-50 | | 家装厨卫 | 5763 | | 未统一补贴标准 | 60-80 | | | | 合计 | | 1550-1650 | 2025年以来，随着消费市场逐渐回暖与促销周期的密集推进，国补资金的消耗节奏呈现 "高开快走" 态势。 截至2025年5月31日，国补资金消耗预计已达 1550-1650 亿元规模，月均消耗超 300 亿 ...

Group 1: Rare Earth Export Restrictions - China has tightened export controls on certain rare earth alloys, mixtures, and magnets, leading to warnings from major automotive companies about potential production halts due to supply shortages [3][5] - China dominates the global rare earth market, producing 92% of high-purity and refined rare earths, with the U.S. relying on China for 70% of its rare earth needs [3][5] - The automotive industry is particularly affected, as the shortage of rare earth magnets could disrupt production lines globally [3][5] Group 2: Huawei Pura80 Series Launch - Huawei's new Pura80 series is set to be officially unveiled next week, with over 100,000 pre-orders already recorded [5] - The Pura80 features a distinctive triangular Deco design and is expected to have significant upgrades in its camera module, possibly including a one-inch sensor [5] - The Mate XT model is anticipated to be the first to support eSIM technology, eliminating the physical SIM card slot for a more streamlined design [5] Group 3: NIO's Financial Performance - NIO reported over 12 billion yuan in revenue for Q1, although it has not yet achieved profitability, yet its stock price rose following the earnings announcement [7] - CEO Li Bin expressed frustration over the prevalence of online smear campaigns against the company, estimating monthly costs related to these attacks at 30 to 50 million yuan [7] - NIO is positioned in a competitive market, and maintaining product and technology leadership is crucial for its future success [7] Group 4: Elon Musk and Trump Feud - Elon Musk publicly criticized former President Trump, leading to a significant drop in Tesla's market value, exceeding 100 billion yuan in a single night [10] - The fallout from Musk's departure from the Trump administration has resulted in a public dispute, highlighting the contrasting interests of both figures [10] - Tesla has faced challenges with stagnant growth, and Musk's return to focus on technology may be critical for revitalizing the company's narrative [10] Group 5: Rise of "Su Chao" in Sports - The "Su Chao" phenomenon has gained immense popularity, with ticket prices skyrocketing from 10 yuan to nearly 600 yuan due to increased public interest [12] - Local businesses have capitalized on this trend, with innovative marketing strategies leading to significant sales increases for related products [12] - The success of "Su Chao" illustrates the importance of local engagement and tailored strategies in the sports industry, moving beyond mere imitation of successful models [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu has filed a lawsuit against Xiaomi and Shanghai Yiyi for unfair competition, with the court hearing scheduled for June 13 in Shanghai [1][4]. Company Overview - Baidu is a leading search engine company in China, known for its services in search, maps, and artificial intelligence [3]. - Xiaomi initially gained market share through high-cost performance smartphones and has since expanded into smart home and automotive sectors, becoming a top player in the tech industry [3]. Legal Dispute Details - The specific details of the lawsuit have not been disclosed, but speculation suggests it may involve issues in the application distribution sector, where Xiaomi's app store has restricted installations of certain third-party applications, including those from Baidu [3]. - There are also suggestions that the conflict may arise from competition in artificial intelligence and data resources, which are critical competitive advantages in the digital age [3]. Industry Implications - The lawsuit highlights the intense competition within the tech industry, where companies often face friction and disputes while vying for market share and profits [4]. - The expectation is that the outcome of this legal battle could influence the internet user experience and the overall dynamics of the tech industry [4].

对话商社：新消费的黄金纪元：新场景+新客群+新产品+ 新渠道 20250605 摘要 新消费区别于传统消费，后者依赖经济增长和收入提升，前者基于"幸 福等于效用和欲望"理论，强调情绪价值、性价比出海及极致成本优势。 2025 年国投证券新消费 50 组合表现良好，验证了新消费投资潜力。 国投证券看好 2025 年新消费板块的持续增长，尽管存在波动，但税收 政策和内需增长驱动新兴企业发展，如老铺黄金、泡泡玛特等。基本面 良好，未来一到两年行情仍具持续性，但需警惕资金在新科技与新消费 间的切换。 新消费定价抓手在于场景、客群、产品和渠道的创新。2018-2020 年 一级市场资本注入宠物经济、美容护理和餐饮等领域，催生一批国产品 牌，商业模式逐渐成熟，竞争格局改善，为新消费公司提供了发展机遇。 当前新消费行情并非全新产品周期，而是渠道、场景或客群变化驱动， 呈现百花齐放态势。前期资本注入的种子经过培育，推动行业发展，行 情由实际业绩支撑，如泡泡玛特和老铺黄金，估值具备支撑。 Q&A 新消费的黄金纪元是什么意思？国投证券策略团队对新消费的认知是什么？ 新消费的黄金纪元指的是在当前经济环境下，新的消费模式和趋势正在迅 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 本 栏目由虎嗅出品。 热点追踪 【特朗普称对马斯克"非常失望"，马斯克光速回怼：法案没给我看过】 据央视新闻，当地时间6月5日，美国总统特朗普谈及马斯克，称不知道还能不能与其保持良好的关系。特朗普 当天表示，对马斯克"非常失望"。 特朗普表示，他宁愿马斯克批评他，而不是批评他的税改法案。特朗普称，马斯克对特朗普政府撤销电动汽 车"强制令"感到很不高兴。据悉，特朗普政府也撤回了对马斯克推荐的艾萨克曼担任美国国家航空航天局 （NASA）局长的提名。特朗普表示，即使没有马斯克，他也能赢得宾夕法尼亚州。特朗普表示，马斯克目前 没有说过他个人的坏话，但他相信接下来就会了。 特朗普当天还表示，埃隆·马斯克了解"宏大而美丽"法案的内部运作，且对此毫无异议，直到发现要撤销电动 汽车"强制令"才意识到问题。 在特朗普发表对马斯克的评价后，马斯克迅速在社交媒体上回应并反驳称，"大错特错，这项法案一次也没有 给我看过，而且是在深夜迅速通过的！" 【国足客场不敌印尼，确定无缘2026世界杯】 据央视体育，北京时间6月5日，世预赛亚洲区第三阶段C组 ...

Group 1: Market Activity - Meituan-W recorded a net buy of HKD 5.55 million, with a trading volume of HKD 24.70 billion, reflecting a price increase of 3.0% [3] - Alibaba-W saw a net sell of HKD 0.39 million, with a trading volume of HKD 23.71 billion, and a price increase of 0.6% [3] - Tencent Holdings experienced a net sell of HKD 14.36 million, with a trading volume of HKD 17.96 billion, and a price increase of 1.4% [3] - Xinda Biologics had a significant price increase of 14.1%, with a net buy of HKD 2.97 million and a trading volume of HKD 22.00 billion [3] Group 2: Fund Flows - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Meituan for 13 days, totaling HKD 144.1059 million, and have net bought Xinda Biologics for 4 days, totaling HKD 22.5265 million [4] - Southbound funds have net bought Alibaba for 3 days, totaling HKD 16.494 million, while they have net sold Tencent for 4 days, totaling HKD 30.6792 million [4] Group 3: Company Developments - Xinda Biologics reported positive clinical trial results for its first-in-class PD-1/IL-2α-bias dual-specific antibody IBI363 for advanced non-small cell lung cancer at the 2025 ASCO annual meeting [6] - BYD plans to launch a low-cost micro electric vehicle in Japan next year, targeting the USD 18 billion microcar market, and reported a 15.3% year-on-year increase in May's new energy vehicle sales [7] - Xiaomi Group faced a net sell of HKD 13.75 million, with a focus on its upcoming product launch and a gradual reduction in losses from its automotive business, expecting profitability in the third to fourth quarter of this year [7]