Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][20] Core Views - For Q1 2025, Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of 176.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11%. The growth is driven by strong performance in gaming, advertising, and a slight recovery in financial technology [4][7][8] - The gaming segment is projected to generate 56.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. The domestic gaming revenue is expected to grow by 18%, supported by stable performance from established games and the success of new titles [4][12][18] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to reach 31.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, driven by the release of advertising inventory and advancements in advertising technology [4][16] - Financial technology and enterprise services are expected to generate 55 billion yuan, with a 5% year-on-year increase, primarily from payment services [5][17] Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 176.5 billion yuan, an 11% increase from the previous year. The breakdown includes: - Value-added services: 87.8 billion yuan, up 12% - Online games: 56.1 billion yuan, up 17% - Advertising: 31.3 billion yuan, up 18% - Financial technology and enterprise services: 55 billion yuan, up 5% [9][10][19] Profitability - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 60.9 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 34.5% [5][8][9] Growth Drivers - The growth in gaming is attributed to the solid performance of established titles like "Peacekeeper Elite" and the rising popularity of new games such as "Delta Action," which has surpassed 12 million daily active users [4][18] - Advertising growth is supported by the steady increase in video traffic and the opening of more ad slots, with current ad loading rates at 4% [4][16] - Financial technology growth is linked to the recovery in offline consumption and increased demand for cloud services, with expectations for accelerated growth in Q2 2025 [5][17] Long-term Outlook - The report highlights significant long-term growth potential in areas such as WeChat e-commerce and AI-driven applications, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts. Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 251.5 billion, 282.6 billion, and 312.6 billion yuan, respectively [6][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5][24]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in 4QFY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. The revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on its core e-commerce and AI & Cloud businesses while reducing costs in non-core areas. The cloud revenue is expected to grow sustainably driven by AI industry momentum [5][24]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - For FY2025, the company’s revenue is adjusted to CNY 996.9 billion, with further projections of CNY 1,074.2 billion in FY2026 and CNY 1,156.6 billion in FY2027. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][27]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are CNY 160.2 billion, CNY 172.5 billion, and CNY 188.3 billion respectively, with adjustments of 5.9%, 4.1%, and 1.2% [5][27]. Segment Performance - Taobao Group is expected to see a GMV growth of 4% year-on-year in 4QFY25, with a continued focus on maintaining market share and enhancing quality supply [10]. - The Cloud segment is projected to accelerate with a revenue growth of 20% year-on-year in 4QFY25, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek [14]. - The AI-driven applications are gaining traction, with the new Quark app achieving a monthly active user count of 149 million, marking it as the only domestic AI app to surpass 100 million MAU [21]. Profitability Metrics - The adjusted EBITA for 4QFY25 is expected to be CNY 302 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [6]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is projected to improve by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. AI and Cloud Developments - The company has been actively iterating its AI models, with several new releases aimed at enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal functionalities [17]. - The AI Cloud segment is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with significant contributions from AI-related revenues anticipated to reach triple-digit growth [14][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][8] Core Views - JD Group is expected to benefit continuously from the national subsidy policy for replacing old products with new ones, and is actively extending its business boundaries by expanding into food delivery services [3][8] - The revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses expected to grow by 13%, 9%, and 5% respectively [2][4] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 is estimated at 9.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.4% [5][6] Revenue Summary - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 291.36 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year [6] - JD Retail's revenue is anticipated to grow by 14%, driven by double-digit growth in both electronic products and daily necessities, with the electronic category benefiting more from the subsidy [2][4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is expected to be slightly weaker than revenue growth, primarily due to the high growth of the 1P model in the revenue structure [2][4] Profit Summary - The overall gross margin is projected to reach 15.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins across various categories and high-end 3C growth due to subsidies [5][6] - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is forecasted to be 51.7 billion, 56.9 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 9% [3][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a 7% year-on-year revenue growth for Q4 FY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. Revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core businesses, while non-core businesses are undergoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The outlook for cloud revenue growth remains positive, driven by AI industry momentum [5][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 237 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. The adjusted EBITA is projected to be 30.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26% [6][27]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to increase by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Anticipated GMV growth of 4% year-on-year, with a focus on maintaining market share and enhancing supply quality. The take rate is expected to continue its upward trend, leading to a CMR growth of 9% [10][11]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Expected revenue growth of 20% year-on-year, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek. The profit margin is expected to remain stable compared to previous quarters [14][17]. - **AI Development**: The company has launched several AI models and applications, including the flagship application Quark, which has reached 149 million MAU. Future developments will focus on enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal integration [21][22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 have been adjusted to 996.9 billion, 1,074.2 billion, and 1,156.6 billion yuan, respectively. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][25]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are set at 160.2 billion, 172.5 billion, and 188.3 billion yuan, with adjustments primarily based on expectations of profitability improvements in non-Taobao businesses [5][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][17] Core Insights - The company has upgraded its membership system, transitioning from a paid membership model to a points-based system, which includes six membership levels: Ordinary, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Black Gold, and Black Diamond [4][7][15] - The new membership system aims to integrate various business segments, providing a comprehensive range of benefits across food, accommodation, travel, entertainment, shopping, and healthcare [3][4][7] - The introduction of the new membership system is expected to enhance consumer spending and frequency of use, thereby accelerating the formation of a local consumption ecosystem [6][17] Summary by Sections Membership System Upgrade - On March 31, 2025, the company fully upgraded its membership system, centering around "Shen Coupons" as core benefits, covering various lifestyle scenarios [3][4] - The new membership system allows users to accumulate growth points through consumption and tasks, with specific spending thresholds to achieve higher membership levels [4][7] Historical Membership Strategy Review - Historically, the company operated independent membership systems for its various services, leading to fragmented user experiences [5][13] - The integration of the membership system began in August 2023 with the merger of "Shen Coupons" and "Shen Membership," which simplified merchant marketing processes and stabilized the core food delivery business [13][14] Financial Projections - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 51.5 billion, 65.3 billion, and 78.7 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.8, 11.7, and 9.7 times [6][17] - The local lifestyle sector is expected to continue evolving through competitive collaboration, with the upgraded membership system facilitating further synergy among business lines [6][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][24][28] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate faster than the overall e-commerce market in 2025, with a projected e-commerce GMV growth of 13% [3][24] - The company reported a 9% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, with an adjusted net profit of 47 billion RMB, maintaining a profit margin of 13.3% [10][24] - The AI product "Keling" has become a benchmark in the video generation field, with expected revenue of 60 million USD in 2025 [4][24] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue reached 354 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 54%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [10][24] - Domestic revenue was 341 billion RMB, growing 7% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 43.6 billion RMB, resulting in an operating loss of 2.4 billion RMB [10][24] - The company’s adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 47 billion RMB, with a sales expense of 113 billion RMB, representing an 11% increase year-on-year [10][24] User Engagement - The total traffic for the company increased by 6% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with MAU reaching 736 million and DAU at 401 million, both up by 5% [2][13] - The average daily usage time per user was 126 minutes, showing a 1% increase year-on-year [2][13] Commercialization - The e-commerce segment's GMV in Q4 2024 was 462.1 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [3][16] - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 206.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase, driven by a high single-digit growth in eCPM [20][24] - Live streaming revenue in Q4 2024 was 99 billion RMB, showing a slight decline of 2% year-on-year, but is expected to return to positive growth in 2025 [20][24] Future Projections - The company anticipates a 14-15% growth in advertising revenue for the full year of 2025, with AI gradually enhancing online marketing capabilities [20][24] - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 201 billion RMB, 238 billion RMB, and 275 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8% and 7% for 2025 and 2026 [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The core business of Meituan is experiencing robust growth, with overseas expansion accelerating to support medium-term growth [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported an adjusted net profit of 9.85 billion yuan, which is in line with expectations, while revenue reached 88.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [1][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the full year 2024 is projected to be 43.77 billion yuan, representing an 88.2% increase year-on-year, driven by improved efficiency in core operations and reduced losses in new businesses [1][9]. Summary by Sections Core Local Business - In Q4 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9%, with operating profit reaching 12.90 billion yuan, a 60.9% increase [2][11]. - The operating profit margin improved to 19.7%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [2][11]. - The delivery service and commission revenue grew by 19.5% and 23.9% respectively, while online marketing services saw a 17.7% increase [2][11]. New Business - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.92 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase, with significant growth in commission and online marketing [3][16]. - The operating loss for new businesses narrowed significantly to 2.18 billion yuan, down from 4.83 billion yuan in Q4 2023, indicating improved efficiency [3][16]. - The Meituan Youxuan segment showed notable improvement in loss reduction, while Keeta remains a primary source of increased losses due to its early-stage investment phase [3][16]. Technology and Efficiency - The company is actively integrating AI technologies to enhance employee efficiency and service upgrades, with a focus on self-developed models [4][18]. - The "Shen Huai Yuan" program has expanded to cover multiple categories, increasing cross-selling opportunities and consumer engagement [4][18]. - The gradual implementation of social security for delivery personnel is expected to increase costs but may also enhance operational efficiency in the long run [4][18]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.0%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach 43.77 billion yuan [8][20]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to 51.52 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast has been raised to 65.31 billion yuan [5][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by ongoing improvements in online penetration and expansion into new markets [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected profit performance, with a focus on sustainable platform ecosystem development despite lower-than-expected revenue growth. The revenue for the quarter was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (yoy +17%) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (yoy +33%) [2][10]. - The company is actively investing in its platform ecosystem, which is expected to yield long-term benefits. Short-term revenue growth has slowed due to initiatives aimed at high-quality development, including a 10 billion yuan fee reduction plan that has helped over 10 million merchants improve operational efficiency [2][10]. - The company is expanding its international presence through TEMU, which has entered over 60 countries, and is adapting its business model to mitigate overseas policy uncertainties [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the company covering shipping costs in western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [3][11]. - The total expenses for the quarter were 34% of revenue, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses down to 28.3% [3][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects growth to improve in the second half of 2025 as the impacts of platform ecosystem investments and national subsidies are digested, alongside a recovery in domestic consumption. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 480.3 billion, 593.5 billion, and 676.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22%, 24%, and 14% respectively [4][5]. - The projected non-GAAP net profits for the same period are 130.2 billion, 163.2 billion, and 185.7 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 revenue was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (up 17% YoY) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (up 33% YoY). However, revenue growth was below expectations due to ongoing investments in platform ecosystem development [1][8] - The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a 14% increase YoY, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross profit margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points YoY, primarily due to the company covering full shipping costs for orders in the western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [2][9] - The company is actively addressing overseas uncertainties, with its TEMU platform now operating in over 60 countries, including the US and Germany. The company plans to introduce a third-party platform model to mitigate tariff risks and enhance supply diversity [2][9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 480.3 billion yuan, 593.5 billion yuan, and 676.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 24%, and 14%. Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same years are 130.2 billion yuan, 163.2 billion yuan, and 185.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [3][12] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 10x, 8x, and 7x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health (06618.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][12] Core Views - In H2 2024, JD Health achieved a revenue of 29.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. The growth was driven by an increase in active user numbers and a wider range of product categories [1][8] - The company's non-IFRS net profit margin improved from 6.4% in the previous year to 7.2%, with operating profit margin rising from -1% to 2%, primarily due to improvements in gross margin and administrative expense ratios [2][8] - For 2025, the management plans to increase long-term strategic investments to capitalize on structural changes in the healthcare market, expecting significant revenue and profit improvements over the next three years [2][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at 65.7 billion yuan and 73.5 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments of 2.9% and 3.7% upwards due to increased consumer online purchasing behavior [3][12] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 4.4 billion yuan and 4.9 billion yuan, with downward adjustments of 7.9% and 3.2% due to increased investments in front warehouses and AI [3][12] Operational Data - As of H2 2024, JD Health had 184 million annual active users, a 7% year-on-year increase, indicating a user penetration rate of 27% with significant growth potential [2][9] - The average transaction value decreased year-on-year, but this was offset by an increase in shopping frequency among users [9]