Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][24][28] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate faster than the overall e-commerce market in 2025, with a projected e-commerce GMV growth of 13% [3][24] - The company reported a 9% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, with an adjusted net profit of 47 billion RMB, maintaining a profit margin of 13.3% [10][24] - The AI product "Keling" has become a benchmark in the video generation field, with expected revenue of 60 million USD in 2025 [4][24] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue reached 354 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 54%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [10][24] - Domestic revenue was 341 billion RMB, growing 7% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 43.6 billion RMB, resulting in an operating loss of 2.4 billion RMB [10][24] - The company’s adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was 47 billion RMB, with a sales expense of 113 billion RMB, representing an 11% increase year-on-year [10][24] User Engagement - The total traffic for the company increased by 6% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with MAU reaching 736 million and DAU at 401 million, both up by 5% [2][13] - The average daily usage time per user was 126 minutes, showing a 1% increase year-on-year [2][13] Commercialization - The e-commerce segment's GMV in Q4 2024 was 462.1 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [3][16] - Advertising revenue for Q4 2024 was 206.2 billion RMB, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase, driven by a high single-digit growth in eCPM [20][24] - Live streaming revenue in Q4 2024 was 99 billion RMB, showing a slight decline of 2% year-on-year, but is expected to return to positive growth in 2025 [20][24] Future Projections - The company anticipates a 14-15% growth in advertising revenue for the full year of 2025, with AI gradually enhancing online marketing capabilities [20][24] - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 201 billion RMB, 238 billion RMB, and 275 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8% and 7% for 2025 and 2026 [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The core business of Meituan is experiencing robust growth, with overseas expansion accelerating to support medium-term growth [1][5]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported an adjusted net profit of 9.85 billion yuan, which is in line with expectations, while revenue reached 88.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [1][9]. - The adjusted net profit for the full year 2024 is projected to be 43.77 billion yuan, representing an 88.2% increase year-on-year, driven by improved efficiency in core operations and reduced losses in new businesses [1][9]. Summary by Sections Core Local Business - In Q4 2024, the core local business generated revenue of 65.57 billion yuan, up 18.9%, with operating profit reaching 12.90 billion yuan, a 60.9% increase [2][11]. - The operating profit margin improved to 19.7%, up 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations [2][11]. - The delivery service and commission revenue grew by 19.5% and 23.9% respectively, while online marketing services saw a 17.7% increase [2][11]. New Business - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.92 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase, with significant growth in commission and online marketing [3][16]. - The operating loss for new businesses narrowed significantly to 2.18 billion yuan, down from 4.83 billion yuan in Q4 2023, indicating improved efficiency [3][16]. - The Meituan Youxuan segment showed notable improvement in loss reduction, while Keeta remains a primary source of increased losses due to its early-stage investment phase [3][16]. Technology and Efficiency - The company is actively integrating AI technologies to enhance employee efficiency and service upgrades, with a focus on self-developed models [4][18]. - The "Shen Huai Yuan" program has expanded to cover multiple categories, increasing cross-selling opportunities and consumer engagement [4][18]. - The gradual implementation of social security for delivery personnel is expected to increase costs but may also enhance operational efficiency in the long run [4][18]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.0%, and adjusted net profit is expected to reach 43.77 billion yuan [8][20]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to 51.52 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast has been raised to 65.31 billion yuan [5][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, supported by ongoing improvements in online penetration and expansion into new markets [5][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected profit performance, with a focus on sustainable platform ecosystem development despite lower-than-expected revenue growth. The revenue for the quarter was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (yoy +17%) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (yoy +33%) [2][10]. - The company is actively investing in its platform ecosystem, which is expected to yield long-term benefits. Short-term revenue growth has slowed due to initiatives aimed at high-quality development, including a 10 billion yuan fee reduction plan that has helped over 10 million merchants improve operational efficiency [2][10]. - The company is expanding its international presence through TEMU, which has entered over 60 countries, and is adapting its business model to mitigate overseas policy uncertainties [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the company covering shipping costs in western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [3][11]. - The total expenses for the quarter were 34% of revenue, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses down to 28.3% [3][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects growth to improve in the second half of 2025 as the impacts of platform ecosystem investments and national subsidies are digested, alongside a recovery in domestic consumption. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 480.3 billion, 593.5 billion, and 676.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22%, 24%, and 14% respectively [4][5]. - The projected non-GAAP net profits for the same period are 130.2 billion, 163.2 billion, and 185.7 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The company's Q4 revenue was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (up 17% YoY) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (up 33% YoY). However, revenue growth was below expectations due to ongoing investments in platform ecosystem development [1][8] - The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a 14% increase YoY, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross profit margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points YoY, primarily due to the company covering full shipping costs for orders in the western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [2][9] - The company is actively addressing overseas uncertainties, with its TEMU platform now operating in over 60 countries, including the US and Germany. The company plans to introduce a third-party platform model to mitigate tariff risks and enhance supply diversity [2][9] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 480.3 billion yuan, 593.5 billion yuan, and 676.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 24%, and 14%. Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same years are 130.2 billion yuan, 163.2 billion yuan, and 185.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [3][12] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 10x, 8x, and 7x for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Health (06618.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][12] Core Views - In H2 2024, JD Health achieved a revenue of 29.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13%. The growth was driven by an increase in active user numbers and a wider range of product categories [1][8] - The company's non-IFRS net profit margin improved from 6.4% in the previous year to 7.2%, with operating profit margin rising from -1% to 2%, primarily due to improvements in gross margin and administrative expense ratios [2][8] - For 2025, the management plans to increase long-term strategic investments to capitalize on structural changes in the healthcare market, expecting significant revenue and profit improvements over the next three years [2][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are set at 65.7 billion yuan and 73.5 billion yuan, respectively, with adjustments of 2.9% and 3.7% upwards due to increased consumer online purchasing behavior [3][12] - Adjusted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 4.4 billion yuan and 4.9 billion yuan, with downward adjustments of 7.9% and 3.2% due to increased investments in front warehouses and AI [3][12] Operational Data - As of H2 2024, JD Health had 184 million annual active users, a 7% year-on-year increase, indicating a user penetration rate of 27% with significant growth potential [2][9] - The average transaction value decreased year-on-year, but this was offset by an increase in shopping frequency among users [9]