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生猪均重下降,惜售情绪反复
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 07:52
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for each commodity: - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [9] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [10] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [11] - **Hogs**: Oscillating, with a long - term downward trend [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [16] - **Sugar**: Oscillating weakly in the long - term, with a short - term rebound [18] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Overall, most commodities are expected to show oscillating trends, with some facing supply pressures and others influenced by seasonal factors and policy changes. For example, hogs are expected to face increasing supply pressure in the second half of the year, while oils and fats may return to range - bound trading [12][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: SPPOMA data shows that from June 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% month - on - month, and from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4% month - on - month. Shipping agencies expect Malaysian palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 to increase by 10% - 17% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking and favorable weather in the US soybean growing areas, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestically, oils and fats trended weakly. The EPA proposal's bullish sentiment may have been released, and there are still uncertainties. US soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean imports are large, with rising soybean oil inventories. Malaysian palm oil production growth in June is limited, and the export outlook is optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly declining [9]. - **Outlook**: The bullish impact of the EPA's biodiesel proposal may have been priced in. Given the good growth of US soybeans, normal weather, and the palm oil production season, oils and fats are likely to return to range - bound trading, with increased downward pressure recently [9]. Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 23, 2025, the average import soybean crushing profit in China was 76.65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24.87 yuan/ton or 24.5%, and a year - on - year increase of 155.24 yuan/ton or 288.98% [10]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina's soybean production forecast by 3 million tons. The bullish sentiment from crude oil and the EPA has been released. US soybean planting and emergence are going well, with normal to slightly above - normal precipitation expected in the next two weeks. Freight costs are rising, and South American soybean premiums are increasing. Domestically, trading sentiment has declined, and the basis in East China has weakened. Soybean arrivals will increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventories are seasonally rising, but there is no immediate pressure. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, but there may be a supply shortage in the fourth quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to bullish factors and lower - than - expected good - quality rates. Domestically, soybean meal supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to have a short - term correction. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels [10]. Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The domestic average corn price is 2422 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight increase. In North China, some deep - processing enterprises lowered their purchase prices due to increased arrivals, while other regions were stable to strong. Wheat harvesting is over, and traders are selling more corn. Corn feed inventories are decreasing, indicating weak replenishment demand. South Port inventories are temporarily increasing due to weather but are expected to decline. Imported grains are tightening, and inventory reduction is expected in the 24/25 season [11]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price is expected to oscillate, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of import auctions [11]. Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of Henan's externally - bred hogs was 14.72 yuan/kg, a 1.1% increase from the previous day. The closing price of the active hog futures contract was 13980 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the proportion of large hogs for sale is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium term, based on the increase in new - born piglets from January to May 2025, the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is close to the break - even point. Demand is weak due to high temperatures, and hog weights are decreasing. In June, hog farmers started to reduce inventory, but there is resistance to low prices, and the selling rhythm is inconsistent. In the third quarter, there are expectations for peak consumption seasons. In the long term, the hog price is in a downward cycle [12]. - **Outlook**: As hog farmers reduce inventory and it is the off - season for consumption, the supply - demand balance is loose. If inventory reduction is sufficient, the supply pressure may ease, but the number of hogs for sale is expected to increase in the second half of the year [12]. Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 23, the price of RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13820 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan. The price of domestic whole - milk old rubber was 13950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [13]. - **Logic**: Rubber prices oscillated within a range of about 200 yuan. Although the overall commodity market corrected, rubber prices were supported by raw materials. Most Asian rubber - producing areas are in the rainy season, and raw material prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is limited due to rain and the early stage of tapping. Some tire enterprises' production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased slightly, but the demand outlook is still weak [13]. - **Outlook**: External events are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the duration is uncertain. Rubber prices may maintain a strong - side oscillation due to the low non - standard basis [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber from two major suppliers in Shandong was 11750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [15]. - **Logic**: With the decline in oil prices and butadiene prices, the market trended weakly. The market is mainly influenced by crude oil and the chemical sector. The overall operating rate has dropped to the lowest level since May, but inventories have increased slightly, indicating weak downstream demand. Butadiene prices oscillated in a small range last week, with a slight increase in the average weekly price. Domestic production has increased slightly, and port inventories have risen, but downstream buying is cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical conflicts may last at least one week, and the market may be affected. Although the fundamental downward trend remains, the market may oscillate strongly in the short term [15]. Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the number of registered cotton warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 10493. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to increase, and other major producing countries such as India and Brazil also have production growth expectations. The US cotton production depends on the third - quarter weather. The downstream market has entered the off - season, with increasing textile inventories and slower production. Cotton commercial inventories have decreased faster than in previous years, and there are concerns about tight inventories at the end of the season, supporting the basis. However, the upward momentum is weak due to weak demand and new - crop production expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to oscillate between 13000 - 13800 yuan/ton. There may be opportunities for reverse spreads [16]. Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 23, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 was 5721 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The sugar market fundamentals have not changed much. The external market has priced in the expected oversupply in the new season, and the prices of domestic and foreign futures have declined. The Brazilian real has strengthened against the US dollar, and strong crude oil prices support the sugar price. Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, with lower inventories than last year. However, there are expectations of concentrated sugar imports. Internationally, Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to increase production in the new season [18]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected oversupply in the new season, sugar prices are expected to decline. In the short term, there may be a rebound [18]. Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the price of Marubeni was 5700 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; and the price of Arauco was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Logic**: Pulp futures prices rose significantly yesterday, especially for far - month contracts, mainly due to the suspension of new warehouse receipts for bleached needle - leaf pulp. However, the spot market followed the increase only slightly. Fundamentally, pulp imports remain high, and prices are still falling. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing, with weak procurement demand. The US dollar price is decreasing, and the current price is not attractive for large - scale inventory building. Although the reduction in deliverable varieties may support the futures price, the supply - demand situation is still loose [19]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and the impact of changes in deliverable rules, pulp futures are expected to oscillate. The reasonable valuation range for the 09 contract is 5200 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 760 yuan/cubic meter, and in Shandong, it is 750 yuan/cubic meter [20]. - **Logic**: The log futures market has provided risk - free arbitrage opportunities, leading to increased purchases by arbitrageurs and stronger reluctance to sell among traders, driving up spot prices. The market is currently focused on the delivery logic. Near - month contracts are stable due to delivery support, while far - month contracts are returning to fundamentals. The trading volume of the 2507 contract is increasing, and the ratio of virtual to real positions is high, leading to increased volatility [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure of logs is expected to ease at the end of June or early July. The demand is in the off - season from June to August. Although the spot price is supported by the clearance of old stocks, the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [20].
国新国证期货早报-20250624
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 03:45
沪深 300 指数 6 月 23 日震荡趋强,收盘 3857.90,环比上涨 11.26。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 星期二 品种观点: 【股指期货】 周一(6 月 23 日)A 股三大指数集体上涨,截止收盘,沪指涨 0.65%,收报 3381.58 点;深 证成指涨 0.43%,收报 10048.39 点;创业板指涨 0.39%,收报 2017.63 点。沪深两市成交额达到 11226 亿,较上 周五放量 549 亿。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 23 日焦炭加权指数窄幅整理,收盘价 1391.7 元,环比上涨 9.6。 6 月 23 日,焦煤加权指数震荡整理,收盘价 818.2 元,环比上涨 12.5。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息: 焦炭:产地煤价涨跌互现,煤矿成交有所好转,但焦价存下行预期,预计本周落地第四轮提降,焦企出货压 力较大,终端需求谨慎。 焦煤:部分事故影响的煤矿仍未复工,叠加环保影响,供应量持续收缩。受悲观预期影响,钢焦企仍保持谨 慎采购,但本周部分下游焦企适度增加采购量,煤矿销售压力缓解,部分去库明显。焦煤竞拍成交涨跌互现,市 场流拍率有所下 ...
利用运河经济助推广西高质量发展
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-06-16 02:17
Core Viewpoint - The construction of the Pinglu Canal is a significant opportunity for Guangxi to leverage its resource endowments, geographical advantages, and historical culture to achieve high-quality development and economic transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Progress - As of May 29, 2025, the Pinglu Canal project has completed an investment of 54.38 billion yuan, accounting for 74.8% of the total project investment [1]. - Key milestones include the successful grid connection of the Youth Hub Power Station and the completion of several bridges, indicating continuous progress in this century project [1]. Group 2: Economic Development Strategy - Guangxi aims to utilize its resource advantages and industrial foundation to focus on pillar industries that reflect its unique characteristics and have significant scale and driving force [2]. - The Pinglu Canal construction is seen as a major opportunity to enhance regional economic development by creating urban clusters and corridors based on comprehensive transportation [2]. - The canal will connect the Xijiang Golden Waterway to the Beibu Gulf International Gateway Port, significantly shortening the inland shipping route by over 560 kilometers, thus alleviating navigation pressure downstream [2]. Group 3: Sustainable Development and Innovation - The historical development of the ancient Silk Road provides insights into sustainable development, emphasizing the importance of water in determining the scale of oases and industrial growth [3]. - The integration of "Artificial Intelligence +" into various industries is crucial for Guangxi's economic development, promoting traditional industry upgrades and enhancing resilience in the industrial chain [4]. - The construction of the Pinglu Canal is expected to facilitate the growth of new industries, including information technology, new energy vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing, contributing to a modern industrial system [4]. Group 4: Trade and Regional Cooperation - The completion of the Pinglu Canal will open a new maritime trade route between the southwestern region and ASEAN, enhancing trade efficiency and strengthening economic ties [5]. - Guangxi is positioned as a strategic hub for trade with ASEAN under frameworks like RCEP and the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, promoting cultural and economic exchanges [5]. - The focus on creating a unified and open market system will drive high-quality development of the canal economy, leveraging the region's unique characteristics for broader economic engagement [5].
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250606
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 01:16
Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 6 日星期五 早盘提示 分品种观点详述 评级预测说明:"+"表示:当日收盘价>上日收盘价;"-"表示:当日收盘价<上日收盘价。 数字代表当日涨跌幅度范围(以主力合约收盘价计算)。0.5 表示:0≤当日涨跌幅<0.5%; 1 表示:0.5%≤当日涨跌幅<1%;2 表示:1%≤当日涨跌幅<2%;3 表示:2%≤当日涨跌幅<3%; 4 表示:3%≤当日涨跌幅<4%;5 表示:4%≤当日涨跌幅。评级仅供参考,不构成任何投资建 议。 研究员:李方磊 从业资格:F03104461 交易咨询资格:Z0021311 联系方式:19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 ...
陈刚到崇左市调研,强调要立足资源禀赋发挥比较优势做强特色产业
Guang Xi Ri Bao· 2025-06-05 01:36
Group 1 - The research emphasizes leveraging resource endowments to strengthen characteristic industries in Chongzuo, aiming for high-quality economic and social development [1] - The Shuxiang Mendi China Wood Industry Ecological City project in Chongzuo is the first mass production line for solid wood composites in the region, exporting products to Southeast Asia [2] - COFCO Chongzuo Sugar Industry Co., Ltd. is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise, leading in sugar quality and focusing on high-end sugar product development [3] Group 2 - The Shuikou Port in Longzhou County is highlighted as a key international trade port, facilitating cross-border industrial cooperation and enhancing customs efficiency [4] - The local government is encouraged to attract more enterprises for import processing, transitioning from "tunnel economy" to "industrial economy" to boost border trade [4] - The importance of completing economic and social development goals for the first half of the year is stressed, alongside enhancing investment attraction and supporting enterprises [5]
生猪日内观点:偏弱运行-20250603
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:50
策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 (2025.06.03) 养殖、畜牧及软商品板块 品种:生猪 核心逻辑: 1、供应方面,截至 2025 年 4 月,据农业农村部数据,全国能繁母猪存栏量为 4038 万头,环比持平,同比增长 1.3%。这一数据反映出自 2024 年 4 月以来,产能 累计上升 1.3%,处于较为平稳的格局,暂未出现产能下滑的情况。而根据第三方机 构钢联数据及涌益咨询的数据显示,2025 年 4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比小幅上升,尽 管第三方机构与官方数据在统计口径上存在一定的差异,但环比上涨在一定程度上 体现了市场上暂无去产能的驱动,甚至部分企业开始缓慢恢复产能。5 月份看来, 生猪市场情绪支撑因素仍存,叠加仔猪价格暂未明显下跌,预计上有能繁母猪存栏 量或仍然稳中有增。根据产能数据推算的生猪供应量仍然充足,暂未看到供应量下 降的格局。 2、需求方面,从投机性需求来看,据钢联数据统计,5 月 23 日当周国内重点 屠宰企业的冻品库容率为 17.28%,与上一周持平,处于历史低位。当前由于需求表 现疲软,冻品市场需求暂未改善,出库维持缓慢节奏。而部分屠宰企业现品销售困 难,存在被动分割入库的情况,综合导致 ...
新疆辖区成功举办2025年投资者网上集体接待暨上市公司专题培训活动
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-05-27 05:18
Core Viewpoint - The event aimed to enhance communication between listed companies in Xinjiang and investors, focusing on financial reports, operational planning, risk management, investor protection, and sustainable development [1][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The online collective reception day for investors was held on May 22-23, 2024, with participation from over 200 staff from 61 listed companies in Xinjiang [1]. - The event featured expert lectures and discussions under the theme "Compliance Foundation, Technology Empowerment" [1][11]. Group 2: Regulatory and Governance Insights - Zhao Peng, Deputy Director of the Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau, emphasized the importance of investor relations management and the need for listed companies to enhance governance, information disclosure, and core competitiveness [3][10]. - The event served as a platform for listed companies to showcase their commitment to transparency and investor engagement [3][6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of the end of 2024, Xinjiang's listed companies had a total share capital of 115.575 billion shares and a total market value of 777.81 billion yuan, with total assets of 34,310.92 billion yuan and net assets of 8,796.15 billion yuan [7]. - The companies collectively raised over 760 billion yuan through equity and debt financing, significantly contributing to the region's economic development [7]. Group 4: Investor Engagement - During the event, investors posed 1,518 questions, with companies responding to 1,341, resulting in an overall response rate of 88.34% [8]. - The high engagement level reflects the commitment of Xinjiang's listed companies to maintain open communication with investors [8]. Group 5: Awards and Recognition - The Xinjiang Listed Company Association announced that three companies were recognized in the "2024 Best Practices in Investor Relations Management" by the China Listed Company Association [12]. - Awards were also given to individuals and companies for excellence in governance and ESG disclosures, highlighting the region's focus on improving corporate governance standards [12].
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250527
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 02:02
Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sectors are as follows: Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; Red dates in the same sector are rated as "volatile and slightly weak"; Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "volatile", with natural rubber and synthetic rubber having different specific trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - Sugar market is affected by factors such as global production forecasts and domestic production and sales data. Currently, Zhengzhou sugar is at the lower edge of the volatile range, and short - term trading information is limited. Attention should be paid to Brazilian and domestic data [1] - After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking atmosphere fades, the red date market's trading enthusiasm declines. The downstream consumption will enter the off - season, and the inventory pressure will suppress the price. Focus on the growth of jujube trees in the main producing areas [3] - Natural rubber is affected by high inventory and increasing raw material supply, with limited upward drivers and likely to be in low - level volatility. Synthetic rubber lacks obvious positive factors and may run weakly due to falling raw material prices [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: SR509 closed at 5835 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.03%, and SR601 closed at 5699 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% [1] - **Important Information**: Global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. Domestic sugar prices in different regions have adjusted, and the port's waiting - to - ship sugar quantity has decreased [1] - **Market Logic**: External markets were closed yesterday. Zhengzhou sugar weakened at night after a small rebound. It is at the lower edge of the volatile range, and there may be new downward impetus [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For SR509, pay attention to the support at 5800 today. If the support is effective, short - term investors can try intraday long positions [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ509 closed at 9000 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.22%, and CJ601 closed at 9920 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week increased by 0.76% week - on - week and 67.60% year - on - year. Market prices in different regions were stable over the weekend [3] - **Market Logic**: The main red date contract traded sideways. After the stocking for the Dragon Boat Festival, the market's trading enthusiasm declined. The inventory pressure will suppress the price [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 8950. If it is broken, look for support in the 8800 - 8850 range. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [3] Rubber Series - **Market Review**: RU2509 closed at 14400 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.93%, NR2507 closed at 12645 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%, and BR2507 closed at 11545 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.74% [4] - **Important Information**: Thai raw material prices, domestic rubber prices, tire enterprise capacity utilization rates, and Qingdao's rubber inventory data are provided [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber continued to be volatile and weak with resistance to decline. Synthetic rubber fell again and then stabilized at the support level. Raw material prices fell, and the market atmosphere was weak [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For RU, pay attention to the 14300 - 14330 support area; for NR, focus on the 12500 - 12880 volatile range; for BR, consider stopping losses on short positions and pay attention to the 11500 - 11550 support [4]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250508
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:34
Group 1: Overall Information - The report is from Green Grand Futures Research Institute on May 8, 2025 [1] - The researcher is Li Fanglei with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311, contact number 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar Market Market Review - SR509 contract closed at 5868 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.37%, and 5825 yuan/ton at night. SR601 contract closed at 5730 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.21%, and 5695 yuan/ton at night [1] - ICE raw sugar July contract closed at 17.14 cents/pound yesterday with a daily decline of 1.55%. London white sugar August contract closed at 485.3 dollars/ton with a daily decline of 1.52% [1] Important Information - As of May 5, 2025, Russia sowed 1.00985 million hectares of sugar beets [1] - Brazil's central - southern region produced 731,000 tons of sugar in the first half of April, a 1.25% increase from last year. The cane crushing volume was 16.59 million tons, a 3% year - on - year increase [1] - As of April 30, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar season in India, there were 19 sugar mills still in production, 4 less than last year. The crushed cane was 275.857 million tons, a decrease of 35.655 million tons (11.44%) from last year, and the sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a decrease of 5.77 million tons (18.33%) [1] - In Hainan, as of the end of April in the 2024/24 sugar season, the sugar sales rate was 27.59% with an inventory of 39,900 tons [1] - Yesterday, the spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 6079 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. Guangxi Sugar Group quoted 6130 - 6260 yuan/ton with a few down 10 yuan/ton. Yunnan Sugar Group quoted 5940 - 5980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of processing sugar factories was 6360 - 6920 yuan/ton, adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton with mixed changes [1] - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts were 30,301, a daily increase of 1672 [1] - The previous trading day, the SR9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] Market Logic - For the external market, ICE raw sugar futures fell again and basically gave back recent gains. Overseas sugar supply is expected to be good and there is insufficient capital buying intention, so the external market may test the 17 - cent/pound support and trade in a low - level oscillation [1] - For the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly yesterday and opened and moved lower at night affected by the external market. There is limited domestic trading information, and the import ban on syrup and premixed powder makes the domestic and foreign sugar prices more closely linked. The key is whether the downward space of raw sugar can be opened, and the strengthening basis will also support the sugar price [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the previous long positions for now. If it breaks below 5800 yuan/ton, exit and wait for the market sentiment to subside, then look for support at 5750 yuan/ton. Hold the SR9 - 1 calendar spread long position [1] Group 3: Jujube Market Market Review - CJ509 contract closed at 9050 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.06% [3] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,505 tons, a 0.15% decrease from the previous period and a 52.96% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, an increase of 3 from the previous day [3] - The previous trading day, the jujube warehouse receipts were 8513, an increase of 15 [3] - The previous trading day, the CJ9 - 1 spread was - 960 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous day [3] Market Logic - Jujubes are in the traditional off - season, and market demand is still weak. There is limited trading information, and whether the supply side can provide upward momentum remains to be seen. In the short term, jujube futures prices lack upward drivers, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact of upstream weather [3] Trading Strategy - For the CJ509 contract, consider a small - scale long position after the current negative factors are digested, waiting for the weather - related market to develop. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Group 4: Rubber Market Market Review - As of May 7, RU2509 contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%. NR2506 contract closed at 12,575 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%. BR2506 contract closed at 11,375 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.53% [4] Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price was 53.55 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,800 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated milk was 14,000 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 200 yuan/ton. Yunnan's rubber block price was 13,100 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole milk was 13,100 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1000 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 614,200 tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, a 4.3% increase, and the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, a 0.38% increase [4] - As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a decrease of 5.67 percentage points from the previous period and 12.29 percentage points lower year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a decrease of 6.25 percentage points from the previous period and 11.74 percentage points higher year - on - year [4] - Yesterday, the price of whole milk was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1760 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars (- 0.56%), equivalent to 12,673 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan (- 0.35%) [4] - Yesterday, the basis of whole milk and the RU main contract was - 110 yuan/ton, narrowing by 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 410 yuan/ton, widening by 45 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the price of Shandong market's Daqing cis - butadiene BR9000 was stable at 11,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong market's Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 was stable at 12,100 yuan/ton [4] - Yesterday, the domestic butadiene industry's capacity utilization rate was 69.25%, a slight decrease of 0.62 percentage points from the previous day [4] - Yesterday, the butadiene delivery price in Shandong's central region was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9000 yuan/ton [4] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It strengthened slightly and then fell again yesterday, and continued to decline at night. The previous small positive news did not boost the market continuously, and the domestic macro - environment did not meet expectations, calming market sentiment. The phenological conditions of rubber plantations at home and abroad are good, and tire factory sales are still not optimistic. So the upward space of the market is limited, and the price may oscillate to find a direction [4] - Synthetic rubber: The supply of butadiene is still abundant, but demand - side support is limited and has little impact on BR rubber. The spot price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable, and terminal procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The weak fundamentals of BR remain unchanged, and it may continue to oscillate at a low level without new news [4] Trading Strategy - For RU, focus on the support range of 14,400 - 14,550 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 15,000 - 15,200 yuan/ton. For NR, focus on the support range of 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton and the resistance range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Given the limited drivers, high - selling and low - buying short - term operations are the main strategy. For the BR main contract, the lower support range is 10,900 - 11,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance range is 11,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. Take a bearish attitude in the short term [4]
生猪日内观点:稳中偏弱-20250429
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 04:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of the main varieties in the market shows different characteristics. For the livestock and soft commodities sectors, the supply of pigs is strong and demand is weak in the short - term, while the sugar market is in a state of weak oscillation. In the energy - chemical sector, the oil price has a complex supply - demand relationship and is expected to be under pressure in the medium - term, and the PVC market has marginal improvement in fundamentals but lacks a strong upward drive [1][2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Variety Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Pig**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. The pig price center is moving down, and the 07 and 09 contracts on the futures market are still bearish. It presents a volatile pattern with limited upside and a bottom for downside. It is recommended that the breeding side sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in the cumulative sales option products [1][2]. - **Sugar**: Both the short - term and medium - term trends are weakly oscillating. International factors such as Brazil's new - season sugar supply increase and India's production reduction co - exist. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been fulfilled, and there may be additional imports. It is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. Energy - Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, pay attention to the phased rebound, and in the medium - term, it will run under pressure. The supply side has certain supporting factors, and the demand side has some positive signals, but the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to buy futures contracts and buy put options for protection [4][5]. - **PVC**: It shows a range - bound oscillation in the short - term, and lacks an upward drive in the medium - term. The cost has rebounded, supply has increased slightly, demand has some speculative factors, and inventory has decreased. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on PVC at an appropriate time [6][7].