债券研究 可转债研究 正股行情延续，转债精选板块 相关研究： 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 湘财证券研究所 核心要点： ❑ 8 月权益市场交投持续活跃，转债继续跑输正股 根据 Wind 数据，8 月（8.1-8.29）中证转债指数上涨 4.32%，中证全指上涨 10.74%；年初至今，中证转债指数、中证全指分别上涨 14.85%、20.49%。8 月权益市场延续了较高的成交活跃度，市场风险偏好明显上升，因此转债 表现整体弱于正股，中证转债指数分别跑输沪深 300、中证 500 指数 6pct、 9pct。 按价格分类看，8 月万得高价转债指数涨幅（+8.92%）大幅领先于低价 （+3.14%）和中价指数（+3.26%），连续 4 个月大幅上涨。主要原因在于 高价转债股性较强，在权益市场持续上行期具备更强的跟涨能力，另一方 面则体现出资金对于当前行情持续性的确认。年初至今，高价转债指数累 计上涨 20.35%，尤其是 7-8 月显著跑赢中价、低价指数。 ❑ 科技板块延续强势表现，但涨幅仍不及正股 根据 Wind 一级行业分类，8 月信息技术转债指数上涨 6.62%，延续了上月 的强劲表现，全年 ...

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks Performance - BYD Electronics (00285) rose over 7%, reporting a nearly 14% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with positive progress in AI data center business [1] - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) surged over 11%, achieving profitability in the first half of the year and recently forming a strategic partnership with Baiyang Pharmaceutical [1] - MicroPort Medical (00853) increased over 11%, with a reported loss of $46.602 million for the first half of 2025, a 51.9% reduction in loss year-on-year [1] - Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) rose over 6%, reporting a net profit of HKD 22.12 billion for the first half of 2025, with an increase in net trading income year-on-year [1] - UBTECH (09880) increased over 4%, announcing a strategic partnership agreement worth $1 billion with international investment firm Infini Capital [1] - Gold stocks performed well, with China Silver Group (00815) up over 8%, Zhaojin Mining (01818) up over 7%, Shandong Gold (01787) up over 6%, Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) up over 6%, and Zijin Mining (02899) up over 6%, driven by rising gold prices due to increased interest rate cut expectations [1] Group 2: Chinese Companies' Financial Results - China Communications Construction (01800) fell over 5%, reporting a 16.9% year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025 and not declaring an interim dividend [2] - Evergrande Property (06666) declined over 3%, with a 5.6% year-on-year drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with management expressing pessimism about economic benefits from Evergrande Group [2] - Zoomlion Heavy Industry (01157) rose over 2%, reporting a more than 20% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with institutions optimistic about export growth in the second half [2] - Midea Group (00300) increased over 2%, reporting a 25.04% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 and proposing an interim dividend of HKD 5 per 10 shares [2] Group 3: US Stocks Performance - Autodesk (ADSK.US) rose 9.09%, reporting a 17% year-on-year revenue increase for the second fiscal quarter and raising its full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance [3] - Gap (GAP.US) increased 1.52%, with revenue slightly below market expectations for the second fiscal quarter, and management indicated that tariffs may pressure annual gross margins [3] - Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) fell 18.60%, reporting record revenue of $2.01 billion for the second quarter, a 58% year-on-year increase, but provided a Q3 revenue guidance slightly below expectations [3] - Alibaba (BABA.US) surged 12.90%, with a market value increase of $36.7 billion overnight, reporting an 18% year-on-year decline in Non-GAAP net profit, but strong resilience in core business [3] - Ambarella (AMBA.US) rose 16.78%, providing strong guidance for Q3 revenue, expected to be between $100 million and $108 million, reflecting continued growth in edge AI demand [3] - IREN Ltd (IREN.US) increased 14.93%, exceeding expectations in its fourth-quarter earnings report and announcing a priority partnership with NVIDIA [3] Group 4: Other Notable Stocks - Dell Technologies (DELL.US) fell 8.88%, reporting that its infrastructure division's operating profit margin was below expectations [4] - Affirm Holdings (AFRM.US) rose 10.59%, reporting better-than-expected revenue and profit for the fourth fiscal quarter [4] - TryHard Holdings (THH.US) declined 9.80%, issuing 1.5 million shares at $4 each, at the lower end of the pricing range [5] - GrowHub (TGHL.US) increased 1.48%, issuing 3.8 million shares at $4 each, also at the lower end of the pre-set pricing range [5]

Group 1: Low Altitude Economy Logistics Ecosystem - China is rapidly developing a comprehensive low-altitude economic logistics ecosystem, including cargo drones, battery swap stations, and electric air taxis, enhancing delivery efficiency and reliability while reducing operational costs [1] - The country is focusing on establishing dedicated pilot zones, digital traffic systems, and new regulatory frameworks to manage potential challenges related to low-altitude airspace congestion [1] - The introduction of advanced technologies such as the world's first 7-seat, 3-ton electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) and hydrogen drones signifies China's ambition to lead the next generation of drone revolution, particularly in the delivery sector [1] Group 2: Chinese Brands Leading Fashion Trends - Emerging Chinese brands are adept at promoting brand concepts rather than just products, targeting consumers curious about new trends [2] - These brands, created by entrepreneurs from the post-80s and post-90s generations, leverage their global education and understanding of foreign brands to build rich narratives around their products [2] - The focus of these brands has shifted towards emotional value and experience, moving beyond mere product functionality [2] Group 3: Chinese Investment in Africa - Over the past 20 years, China has significantly increased investments in Africa across various sectors, including renewable energy, railways, ports, manufacturing, digital networks, and healthcare [3][4] - Investments such as the $1.4 billion upgrade project for the Tanzania-Zambia Railway are expected to revitalize key trade corridors and improve transportation efficiency in the region [3] - China's investment strategy is now more targeted, manageable in scale, and commercially viable, encouraging local and private sector participation while providing clearer investment returns [3]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：纪要研报地） | 1977 | 信号 | 子行业 1168 | 11212 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 来最优 | 纳斯达克100指数8月收涨约1.5% -- 表面数据亮眼。但全月的故事实则是成分般的 | | | | 软件 | > 分化: 苹果/特斯拉/谷歌母公司月强幅超10%,而英伟达/脸书/亚马逊/微软全月持平 | | 【出版 | .. | 豆肤网 | 成下跌。同样值得注意的是,罗素2000科技指数8月表现超越纳指约500个基点——这 晶白2024年11月 (土国大决) 日津县大局饮相颇次台,马里湾镇方面,我们与婚姻。 | | | 硬件 | | 10.000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 100 100 100 1000 100 10000000000 10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 者探讨的议题包括:1) 软件板块能否摆脱人工智能负面情绪压制(月末动态及财报 | | | 电值/有线电视 | 21 | 令人發舞);2) 杰克逊霍尔会议后 -- 科技媒体潘值板块的 就涨 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 随着A股市场走牛，主动权益基金也迎来大丰收，翻倍基批量涌现， 今天我们一起盘点下今年前8月主动权益基金的情况。 此外， 根据监管要求，基金季半年报需要在半年结束后的60天内披露，当下市场上主动权益基金半年报也基本披露完成，备受大家关注的知名基 金经理也公布了最新的市场观点，成为我们跟踪基金运作情况，看待市场情况的重要参考。 01 主动权益基金大丰收！ 主流指数前 8 月总体上演上涨行情，其中北证 50 年内涨幅达到 51.49% ，表现最好；科创创业 50 、科创 50 、创业板指、中证 2000 等指数 表现强势，涨幅超 30% ，仅红利指数出现小幅下跌。 受益于股市上涨，权益类基金交出了不错的业绩答卷。 | 主流指数和权益基金业绩PK | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 前8月表现(%) | 基金类型 | 前8月表现(%) | | 创业板指 24.13 | 普通股票型基金 | 28.38 | | 15.32 深证成指 | 偏股混合型基金 | 28.79 | | 中证500 13.13 | 指数型基金 | 24.02 | | 沪深300 1 ...

Market Overview - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index experienced a decline on August 29, closing at 1341.31 points, down 1.71%, with a trading range of 2.35% and a total trading volume of approximately 111.1 billion yuan [1] - Most stocks on the Sci-Tech Board fell, with 215 stocks rising. High-priced stocks showed mixed performance, while low-priced stocks mostly declined [1] - In specific sectors, healthcare and biopharmaceutical stocks were active, while semiconductor and software service stocks declined [1] Stock Performance - Excluding five suspended stocks, the average decline for 584 stocks on the Sci-Tech Board was 0.27%, with an average turnover rate of 4.54%, total trading volume of 3.3036 trillion yuan, and an average volatility of 5.24% [1] - Hangke Technology led the gainers with a 20% increase, while Magu Technology had the largest decline at 15.81%. Cambrian Technology fell over 6%, closing below 1500 yuan at 1492.49 yuan [1] Trading Volume - Cambrian Technology had the highest trading volume at 26.51 billion yuan, while ST Pava had the lowest at 958.5 thousand yuan [2] Turnover Rate - Aerospace Hongtu had the highest turnover rate at 23.57%, while Anxu Bio had the lowest at 0.47% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

Group 1 - The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index opened high and rose significantly, closing at 1364.60 points with a gain of 7.23%, marking a three-year high [1] - The total trading volume for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached approximately 135.5 billion yuan, with an average turnover rate of 5.26% across 586 stocks [1] - Semiconductor stocks experienced a substantial increase, while healthcare and biopharmaceutical stocks saw declines [1] Group 2 - According to Zheshang Securities, the profitability turning point is a signal for market initiation, with nearly half of the companies in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board showing signs of reversal by Q1 2025 [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has entered a main upward phase since June 2023, with expectations for continued market performance driven by profit recovery [2] - The average increase for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks, excluding three suspended stocks, was 1.72% on August 28 [1]

Market Overview - US stock markets rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.21%, and S&P 500 up 0.24% [1] - Notable stock movements include Apple up 0.51%, Amazon up 0.18%, Google A up 0.16%, Microsoft up 0.94%, while Tesla down 0.59%, Nvidia down 0.09%, and Meta down 0.89% [1] Company Earnings and Projections - Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $46.7 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $46.23 billion, with data center revenue at $41.1 billion, slightly below the forecast of $41.29 billion [2] - Nvidia expects Q3 revenue of $54 billion, surpassing the anticipated $53.46 billion, and has approved an additional $60 billion stock buyback [2] Strategic Investments - Google plans to invest $9 billion in cloud and AI infrastructure in Virginia, USA [5] - OpenAI aims to enhance ChatGPT to better recognize and respond to users' psychological and emotional concerns [6] Pharmaceutical Developments - Eli Lilly's Verzenio combined with endocrine therapy shows significant statistical and clinical improvement in a Phase III trial for specific breast cancer patients [7] Industry Trends - The Chinese satellite internet industry is expected to grow rapidly, supported by government policies and technological advancements, with a focus on integrating satellite communication with mobile services [13] - The eVTOL industry is seeing competition primarily between the US and China, with advancements in aircraft power systems and regulatory frameworks being key focus areas [16] Corporate Announcements - Meituan's Q2 adjusted net profit plummeted 89% year-on-year to 1.49 billion yuan, significantly below expectations, with marketing expenses increasing by 51.8% [10] - Honey Snow Group reported a 39.3% year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, with net profit up 44.1%, expanding its global store count to 53,000 [11] Mergers and Acquisitions - China General Nuclear Power plans to acquire stakes in four companies for 9.375 billion yuan [18] - Huayu Automotive intends to acquire a 49% stake in SAIC Qingtao for 206 million yuan, marking its entry into the solid-state battery sector [18] Financial Performance - Major companies reporting significant profit increases include: - Zhongtai Technology with a net profit of 1.25 billion yuan, turning around from losses [24] - A-share listed companies like Wuliangye and BOE reported net profits of 19.49 billion yuan and 3.247 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth [26][27]

资本对AI领域的投资热情预计还会持续一段时间。深水资产管理公司的执行合伙人道格·克林顿（Doug Clinton）预测，AI牛市仍将"持续2~4年"，因为AI技术本身的演进以及其与各行各业深度融合并产生实 际效益需要时间。AI大模型的技术仍在快速进步，降低了应用落地的障碍。AI正在渗透到几乎所有行 业，从智能制造、智能驾驶、智慧金融到医疗健康、教育等，为提升效率和变革商业模式提供了无限可 能。 但AI的投资路径可能不会一帆风顺，期间会伴随着波动和筛选，部分领域可能存在估值过高的问题。 资本更加关注技术在实际场景的应用闭环与盈利验证，正在回归理性。未来资本可能会流向AI产业链 中更具潜力的环节，随着底层技术成熟，能够解决实际痛点、具有清晰商业模式的应用层公司将迎来机 会。 2025年进入"下半场"。纵观"上半场"，大趋势是全球资本从美国市场流向非美市场，从传统行业流向科 技领域，尤其是AI相关产业。 从股市行业流向来看，半导体是绝对的主角，获得了全球纯多头基金的巨额增持。这直接源于AI革命 对算力需求的爆炸式增长，机构资金长期看好AI产业链上游的核心资产。与此相对，工业和医疗保健 板块遭遇了显著抛售，这主要反映 ...