智通财经APP讯，南京聚隆(300644.SZ)公告，公司拟以3000万元注册资本在广东省惠州市设立全资子公 司，投资1.1亿元建设年产6万吨改性塑料生产线建设项目。该事项旨在进一步拓展华南地区市场，深度 服务南方客户群，提升公司市场响应速度与综合竞争力，完善战略布局。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and reduced downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently, with a higher plastic operating rate than PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 85% (neutral), while PP operating rate rose to around 81% (slightly below neutral). As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. The easing of the Iran situation led to a decline in crude oil prices. New production capacities have been put into operation for both PE and PP. With continuous decline in agricultural film and plastic weaving orders, and approaching the Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline. Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and they are expected to fluctuate in a range [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to around 85% due to new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE, and is currently at a neutral level. PP operating rate increased by 2 percentage points to around 81% as maintenance devices like Jingbo Polyolefin Line 2 restarted, and is at a slightly below - neutral level [12] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. The plastic - weaving operating rate of the main downstream of PP decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic - weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [18] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 05 contract rose to 135 yuan/ton due to the supplementary increase in spot prices, and is at a relatively low - neutral level [22] Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction has been good after the New Year's Day, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26]

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) futures market experienced a strong surge at the beginning of 2026, driven by tightening fundamentals, robust cost support, and improved macro expectations, although the sustainability of this trend is under scrutiny. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply has contracted due to a peak in domestic PP plant maintenance, with several facilities undergoing planned and unplanned shutdowns, leading to a temporary tightening of supply [3] - Demand remains resilient, particularly in traditional sectors such as home appliances, automotive, and consumer goods, correcting previous overly pessimistic expectations, while social inventory has continued to deplete to low levels [3] Group 2: Cost Factors - Cost support is solid, with international oil prices remaining high due to geopolitical factors, and the cost of naphtha routes being robust. Domestic coal prices are also supported, reducing the cost advantage of coal-based routes, which together elevate the marginal cost of PP production, creating a strong price floor [4] Group 3: Macro Sentiment and Financial Dynamics - Improved macro sentiment and expectations for stable growth policies have enhanced market perceptions of manufacturing and consumption prospects. With low inventory levels and bullish logic, capital has actively entered the market, amplifying and accelerating the upward trend in the spot market due to the financial attributes of futures [5] - Despite the current market exuberance, there are potential risks and long-term challenges, including the unchanged trend of capacity expansion, which may lead to a loosening of the supply-demand balance, and the need for validation of downstream acceptance of high raw material prices and the sustainability of demand recovery [5] - The future direction of the market will depend on key verification points such as the actual progress of new capacity releases, the ability to maintain high cost levels, and the performance of the upcoming traditional peak demand season [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side still has a boost, and attention should be paid to the implementation process of maintenance. The market sentiment has improved, driving the prices of PE and PP to continue to rebound, but the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals of both is limited. The short - term rebound sustainability of PP depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the rebound drive of PE may weaken after the sentiment fades [1][3][4] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract was 6,766 yuan/ton (+29), and that of the PP main contract was 6,545 yuan/ton (-15). LL spot prices in North China and East China were 6,670 yuan/ton (+90) and 6,750 yuan/ton (+100) respectively, while PP spot price in East China was 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). LL basis in North China was -96 yuan/ton (+61), in East China was -16 yuan/ton (+71), and PP basis in East China was -295 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP operating rate was 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 104.8 yuan/ton (+17.2), PP oil - based production profit was -535.2 yuan/ton (+17.2), and PDH - based PP production profit was -722.0 yuan/ton (+53.5) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was 160.2 yuan/ton (+58.7), PP import profit was -365.7 yuan/ton (-33.2), and PP export profit was -36.5 US dollars/ton (-1.1) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film operating rate was 49.0% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2] Market Analysis - **PE**: The bottom - rebound of oil prices has strengthened cost support. Although the supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, it is not a substantial reversal. The supply pressure remains due to the expected increase in low - cost imported goods and the return of some devices to produce standard products. The demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure exists under high supply [3] - **PP**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, and the supply - side reduction expectation and cost support have boosted prices. The supply pressure has been relieved in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the short - term rebound sustainability depends on the increase in the scale of supply - side maintenance [4] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging. Pay attention to the upstream maintenance dynamics [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. In terms of supply, new production capacity was put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27%. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years. On the cost side, due to recent events in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, the crude oil price rebounded slightly. New production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and the number of maintenance devices decreased slightly. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders continue to decline, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, with limited support for the market. Although the macro environment is positive, the improvement in the supply-demand pattern of PP is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened. It is expected that the upside space for PP is limited. Due to new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and a higher operating rate compared to PP, combined with the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural film, the L-PP price spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6,456 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.31%. The open interest decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions partially increased. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,120 - 6,680 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 13th, maintenance devices such as the second line of Jingbo Polyolefin restarted, and the operating rate of PP enterprises rose to around 81%, at a relatively low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP remaining at around 27% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 590,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [4]. Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cost side provides support, and the market sentiment boosts the continuation of a relatively strong performance in the polyolefin market. However, the fundamental supply - demand situation of PE and PP has only slightly improved without a substantial reversal. The short - term rebound in PP prices depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, while PE's rebound may weaken after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - level guidance, inventory de - stocking progress, and upstream maintenance dynamics [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6737 yuan/ton (+63), and the PP main contract is 6560 yuan/ton (+46). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE's operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and PP's is 75.5% (-1.3%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: PE's oil - based production profit is 87.6 yuan/ton (-90.7), PP's oil - based production profit is - 502.4 yuan/ton (-90.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 775.5 yuan/ton (-71.6) [2]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL's import profit is 101.5 yuan/ton (+13.5), PP's import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (-28.4), and PP's export profit is - 35.4 US dollars/ton (-1.7) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE's downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), packaging film is 49.0% (+0.6%), PP's downstream plastic weaving is 42.9% (-0.2%), and BOPP film is 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. II. Market Analysis - **PE**: Cost support drives the bottom - up movement of the market, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited improvement. Supply pressure may ease slightly, but import volume is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. After the sentiment fades, the rebound momentum may weaken [3]. - **PP**: The short - term market sentiment, supply - reduction expectations, and cost support drive the price rebound. The supply pressure eases in the short term, but the demand support may gradually weaken. The overall inventory level is still high, and the sustainability of the rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance [4]. III. Strategy - **Single - side**: Observe LLDPE and cautiously go long on PP for hedging. Pay attention to upstream maintenance dynamics [5]. - **Cross - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Cross - variety**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when the spread is high [5].

【PVC现货】 国内PVC市场盘中大幅震荡，受周五晚间发布PVC取消出口退税影响，市场担忧远期出口竞争优势减 弱，盘中一度探低，今日市场黑色等产业盘面持续上涨推动成本支撑增强，叠加市场对政策前出口的预 期向好，午后市场止跌回涨，现货市场成交重心调整有限，华东地区电石法五型现货库提在4580-4680 元/吨，乙烯法僵持在4700-4900元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：截止1月9日PVC粉整体开工负荷率为78.85%，环比上周77.34%提升1.51个百分点；其中电石法 PVC粉开工负荷率为80.23%，环比上周78.23%提升2个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为75.69%，环 比上周75.28%提升0.41个百分点。周内检修企业较少，本周检修损失量下降；除此之外，部分前期降负 荷企业近期开工逐步提升。 库存：截至1月8日本周PVC社会库存统计环比增加3.48%至111.41万吨，环比节前增加4.72%，同比增加 40.98%；其中华东地区在106.04万吨，环比增加3.68%，同比增加40.69%；华南地区在5.37万吨，环比 减少0.26%，同比增加47.06%。 【PVC行情展望】 周一PVC ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and the upward space for polyolefins is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率 remains around 87% (neutral level), while PP开工率 drops to around 79% (neutral - low level). After the New Year's Day holiday as of the week of January 9, PE下游开工率 increased 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% (still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years), and PP下游开工率 decreased 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years). The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price rebounded slightly due to geopolitical factors. There are new production capacities for both PE and PP. With the end of the agricultural film peak season and reduced demand in the north, the downstream开工率 is expected to decline. Although the macro environment is positive, it has limited impact on the polyolefin supply - demand pattern. [4] 3.2 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic: The number of maintenance devices has changed little, and the开工率 remains around 87% (a neutral level). - PP: With the addition of maintenance devices such as the second line of Fujian United, the enterprise开工率 dropped 3 percentage points to around 79% (a relatively low level). [16] 3.3 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - PE demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream开工率 increased 0.06 percentage points to 41.21%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - PP demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream开工率 decreased 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. [22] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price has increased to catch up, and the basis of the 05 contract has risen to - 24 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level. [26] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased 0.5 tons to 57 tons week - on - week, 1 ton higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PP market is expected to move up in a volatile manner, but the upside space is limited due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles. Also, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Relevant Parts Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% year - on - year, a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year - On January 9, some overhauled plants such as Donghua Energy (Ningbo) Phase I restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 79%, a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 25.5% - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years - On the cost side, although the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, the key oil facilities in the country are not damaged, and its output accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, but the crude oil price remains weak - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled plants has increased recently - The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized purchasing in the market, so the boost to the market is limited. Traders are on the sidelines - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the 2026 trade - in and "two key" quotas, creating a warm macro environment, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with the lowest price of 6,456 yuan/ton, the highest price of 6,532 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,484 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.31%. The position volume decreased by 8,586 lots to 511,792 lots [2] - In the spot market, the spot prices of PP in various regions have partially increased, with drawstring priced at 6,070 - 6,530 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 9, some overhauled plants such as Donghua Energy (Ningbo) Phase I restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to around 79%, a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 25.5% - On the demand side, as of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% year - on - year, a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 57 million tons week - on - week, 1 million tons higher than the same period last year - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil contract 03 rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $750 per ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively focusing on optical display, new energy, and consumer electronics, while continuously expanding the breadth and depth of material applications [1] Group 1 - The company is responding to market trends and is committed to leveraging its technological and industrial foundation to layout emerging fields [1]