有色金属期货

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有色日报:有色分化,铜维持强势-20250901
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 10:23
有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 沪铜 今日沪铜增仓上行,尾盘逼近 8 万关口。自杰克逊霍尔会议后, 金银铜一起上涨,周五以来有加速上行趋势。我们认为一方面美联 储 9 月议息会议临近,另一方面是内外权益市场出现高位震荡,国内 定价商品也呈现回落,资金轮动。产业层面,国内金九银十产业旺 季,下游需求或持续走强。预计铜价维持强势运行。 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 1 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色分化,铜维持强势 核心观点 从业资格证号:F3035632 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓下行,主力期价盘中跌破 2.06 万关口。宏观层面, 今日黑色系普跌,铝也有所承压,铜铝分化明显。产业层面,本周一 Mysteel 国内电解铝社 ...
20250828申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250828
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 02:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and varying downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak - side fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, PV rush - installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Strategy: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Strategy: Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may have weak - side fluctuations within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 79,180 | 140 | 9,756 | - 88.68 | 155,000 | - 975 | | Aluminum | 20,825 | - 40 | 2,604 | 5.15 | 478,075 | - 650 | | Zinc | 22,305 | - 75 | 2,764 | - 6.85 | 65,525 | - 2,550 | | Nickel | 121,550 | - 2,050 | 15,131 | - 184.70 | 209,148 | - 600 | | Lead | 16,865 | - 155 | 1,985 | - 41.11 | 271,550 | - 1,500 | | Tin | 271,320 | - 3,370 | 34,510 | 167.00 | 1,780 | - 5 | [2]
海外宏观回暖,铜价强势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:48
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Shanghai copper, the price increased with rising positions during the night session last Friday and maintained strong performance today, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 mark. The dovish speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting on the 22nd led to a significant increase in market risk appetite and a decline in the US dollar index, which is positive for copper prices. Domestically, as the peak season approaches, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, strengthening industrial support. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong trend, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the price showed an upward trend during the night session last Friday and maintained a volatile trend today. The rising overseas interest - rate cut expectation has increased market risk appetite. However, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories increased on Monday. With the improvement of the macro situation and the weak industrial reality, it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the price hit the bottom and rebounded last Friday, and the main contract price fluctuated above 120,000 today. Although the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded with the improvement of the overseas macro situation, nickel underperformed the sector. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories is suppressing nickel prices. With the improvement of the macro situation and industrial negatives, it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [6]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared to August 18 and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared to August 21 [8]. Aluminum - On August 25, the spot inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to August 18 and an increase of 24,000 tons compared to August 21 [9]. Nickel - On August 25, for the mainstream reference contract SHFE nickel 2509 in the Shanghai market, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,610 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,510 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,100 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,560 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][16][20]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum average price spread, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][30][31]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][45].
中辉有色观点-20250825
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:26
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended for rebound buying. In the long - term, they are expected to rise, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with long - term optimism due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. Zinc is expected to have limited upside space in the short - term, and a rebound short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and industrial silicon are expected to have short - term rebounds. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short - term, gold has support around 770 and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100 and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise. Copper short - term long positions should be held, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Zinc short - term attention should be paid to filling the upper gap, and long - term rebound short - selling is recommended. Aluminum short - term attention should be paid to taking profits and observing. Nickel and stainless steel short - term should take profits on dips. Lithium carbonate can be bought at low levels after stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average [1][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Powell's speech exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in liquidity expectations, leading to a notable rise in the gold and silver markets [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Powell's statement exceeded expectations, paving the way for a possible September interest rate cut; Germany's economic concerns deepened with a significant contraction in Q2 GDP; Trump is conducting a major tariff investigation on furniture products, and Canada has adjusted some tariffs. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770, pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and returned to the 79,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally in the future. Currently in the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Global copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, continue to hold long copper positions, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Long - term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to filling the upper gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc rebounded due to Powell's dovish remarks, but the upside space may be limited. Short - term, previous short positions can take profits and wait and see. Long - term, maintain the view of rebound short - selling. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded and recovered, and alumina showed a slight stabilizing trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cut expectations are obvious, with a decline in costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to remain loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai aluminum should focus on taking short - term profits and observing, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,000] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized, and stainless steel rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment is positive. Nickel ore prices are weak, and smelters are at a loss. Nickel production increased in July, and inventory accumulated again. Stainless steel production cuts weakened, and the off - season pressure remains [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Nickel and stainless steel should take short - term profits on dips, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved low, with a decline of more than 4% [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Supply production increased slightly, and demand is approaching the peak season. Downstream factories are stocking up, and the total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating good demand. After stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average, it can be bought at low levels [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [78,000 - 81,000] yuan/ton [22].
有色金属板块“万红丛中一点绿” 多晶硅主力涨近2%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-25 05:18
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with polysilicon prices rising while lithium carbonate prices decline [1] Price Movements - Lithium carbonate futures decreased by 0.43%, priced at 79,280.00 CNY/ton - Polysilicon futures increased by 1.89%, priced at 52,175.00 CNY/ton - Alumina futures rose by 1.02%, priced at 3,174.00 CNY/ton - Shanghai tin futures increased by 1.13%, priced at 269,340.00 CNY/ton [1][2] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on August 25 include: - Alumina: Opened at 3,141.00 CNY, closed at 3,142.00 CNY - Lithium carbonate: Opened at 81,000.00 CNY, closed at 79,620.00 CNY - Shanghai copper: Opened at 78,710.00 CNY, closed at 78,710.00 CNY - International copper: Opened at 69,780.00 CNY, closed at 69,810.00 CNY - Shanghai aluminum: Opened at 20,625.00 CNY, closed at 20,670.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Inventory Changes - As of August 22, warehouse receipts for various metals showed the following changes: - Copper: Decreased by 1,009 tons to 24,148 tons - Aluminum: Decreased by 2,746 tons to 57,144 tons - Zinc: Increased by 503 tons to 32,791 tons - Tin: Decreased by 205 tons to 7,053 tons - Lead: Decreased by 476 tons to 58,946 tons - Nickel: Decreased by 36 tons to 22,552 tons - International copper: Remained stable at 6,125 tons - Alumina: Increased by 1,793 tons to 77,746 tons - Lithium carbonate: Increased by 670 contracts to 24,990 contracts - Polysilicon: Increased by 80 contracts to 6,540 contracts - Industrial silicon: Decreased by 117 contracts to 51,049 contracts [3] Basis and Basis Rate - The basis and basis rates for selected metals indicate: - Copper: Spot price at 78,855 CNY, futures price at 78,700 CNY, basis of 155 CNY, basis rate of 0.20% - Zinc: Spot price at 22,186 CNY, futures price at 22,245 CNY, basis of -59 CNY, basis rate of -0.27% - Aluminum: Spot price at 20,696.7 CNY, futures price at 20,670 CNY, basis of 26 CNY, basis rate of 0.13% [4][5]
有色金属日报-20250822
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 11:23
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a long/short position, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and policy expectations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - to - medium term [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation, regaining part of the intraday gains. The spot copper was reported at 78,830 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium slightly shrank to 150 yuan. Overnight, the August manufacturing PMI indices in Europe and the US were better than expected, driving the London copper to rebound. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of the MA60 moving average, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with a spot premium of 30 yuan in East China. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. The downstream start - up was stable, and the inventory was likely to remain at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [3] Zinc - Shanghai zinc retraced to the previous low. The downstream's buying sentiment improved at low prices, and the SMM zinc social inventory slightly decreased to 132,900 tons. The short - term was regarded as an oscillation, and the medium - term was to maintain a short - allocation idea on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel pulled back, and the market trading was mediocre. The stainless steel social inventory had decreased for six consecutive times. However, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced stainless steel sources was still poor. Shanghai nickel was in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered [7] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a negative line oscillation above the MA60 moving average. After the centralized delivery on the third Wednesday of LME, the 0 - 3 month shifted to a discount of 2 dollars, and the inventory was at a low level. Short - term long positions should be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell below 80,000 yuan, and the market trading was active. The market was regarded as an oscillation, and risk control should be done well [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose slightly. The current market supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and the price was expected to maintain an oscillation [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The current spot price corresponded to the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the upper space still depended on the implementation progress of the production capacity management policy. The operation idea was to go long on dips [11]
有色商品日报-20250822
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].
20250822申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250822
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 03:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, and domestic downstream demand generally stable and positive but with mixed sector performances. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and the supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year, with potential recovery in smelting supply. Similar to copper, it's necessary to monitor US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price and Market Analysis - **Copper**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. The price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and domestic automobile production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year, concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover, leading to potential wide - range short - term price fluctuations [2]. Metal Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 78,540 | 115 | 9,725 | - 81.01 | 156,350 | 1,200 | | Aluminum | 20,620 | 30 | 2,593 | - 0.47 | 479,525 | 0 | | Zinc | 22,260 | - 65 | 2,767 | - 7.54 | 71,250 | - 950 | | Nickel | 119,700 | - 1,380 | 14,929 | - 186.96 | 209,346 | 18 | | Lead | 16,745 | - 155 | 1,970 | - 38.38 | 281,100 | - 1,850 | | Tin | 266,480 | 2,100 | 33,475 | - 2.00 | 1,715 | 85 | [2]
有色金属日报-20250820
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 11:29
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: な☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall copper market is still cautiously assessing economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. Hold short positions in Shanghai copper above 79,000 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year [3]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with supply surplus gradually emerging, and it will be in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to rebound under pressure. In the short - term, it will stop falling and fluctuate, and in the medium - term, the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [4]. - For nickel, it is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [7]. - Shanghai tin has a tight fundamental situation, but is also affected by demand concerns. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8]. - The lithium carbonate futures price shows a strong trend, and it is expected to fluctuate. Risk control should be done well [9]. - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be a callback risk if the policy expectation falls later [10]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a volatile adjustment situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic" [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Wednesday, and the short positions above 79,000 in the main contract are held. The physical copper price in Shanghai is 78,770 yuan with a premium of 190 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference is within 1,000 yuan. The US government included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot in East China was at par. The downstream start - up is stable, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The alumina supply surplus is emerging, and the inventory and warehouse receipts are rising [3]. Zinc - In July, the import of zinc concentrates increased by 51.9% month - on - month to 501,400 physical tons, while the import of refined zinc decreased by 50.35% month - on - month to 17,900 tons. The short - term zinc price stops falling and fluctuates, and the medium - term is short - sold on rebounds [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 6 consecutive times, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless steel is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with reduced positions. The fundamentals are tight, with a decrease in domestic tin concentrate imports in July and low - level customs clearance of Myanmar ore. The short - term long positions are held based on the MA60 moving average [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is volatile. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard enterprises for the 930 deadline. The fundamentals have limited guidance on the price [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The market sentiment cooled after the photovoltaic conference, but there is still a policy support expectation. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the price in Xinjiang has decreased [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates. The market is in a situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic", with a resistance level at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton and a support level at about 48,000 yuan/ton [11].
20250819申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250819
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:27
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are at play, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, while downstream demand shows a mixed picture. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and this year's concentrate supply has improved significantly. Domestic demand is also a mix of positive and negative factors, and the same external factors need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Current concentrate processing fees are generally at a low level, challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power and automobile industries growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,950 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 170 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,733 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 96.75 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 155,800 tons, with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year's concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,777 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 8.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 76,325 tons, with a daily change of - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.05 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 479,550 tons, with a daily change of - 125 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,270 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,151 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 194.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 211,662 tons, with a daily change of 522 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 155 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,971 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 44.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 261,100 tons, with a daily change of - 575 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,020 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 420 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,702 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 89.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 1,655 tons, with a daily change of - 175 tons [2].