Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in the mining sector have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 91,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 11,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.19 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,000 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,735 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 100 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,846 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.14 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 525,800 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 23,025 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 166.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 57,750 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,375 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 116,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,430 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 192.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,344 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 228 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,115 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,977 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 51.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,825 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 312,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 930 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 39,850 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 46.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,075 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 10 tons [2].

期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 有色金属 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜减仓回落明显，主力期价由早盘的 9.25 万一线下挫至收 盘的 9.1 万一线，持仓量也由 65 万下降至 63.5 万张。宏观层面，临 近美联储议息会议，市场风险偏好下降。产业层面，随着铜价上 涨，下游观望氛围渐浓，现货升水走弱。技术层面，铜价减仓回 落，短期多头了结意愿较强，关注 9 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓回落明显，主力期价由早盘的 2.22 万关口回落至收 盘的 2.18 万关口，持仓量由 73 万下降至 66 万张。宏观层面，临近美 联储议息会议，市场风险偏好下降。产业层面，随着铝价上涨，下游 观望情绪升温，现货贴 ...

20251209申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求转向缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼产量 | | | 和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。中钢 协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增 | | | 长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建议关 | | | 注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | (美元/吨） | （美元/吨） ...

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.46% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.90% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.23%, and Shanghai zinc saw a slight increase of 0.02% [1] - Shanghai lead and nickel both experienced minor gains, with lead up by 0.03% and nickel up by 0.39% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin fell by 0.47%, while alumina saw a marginal increase of 0.04% [1] - Aluminum alloy prices dropped by 0.40%, indicating a mixed performance in the aluminum sector [1] - Stainless steel prices increased by 0.64%, reflecting positive momentum in that market segment [1]

12月3日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红，沪锡主力涨逾2%。截止目前，多晶硅主力上涨1.42%，报 57165.00元/吨；氧化铝主力下跌1.49%，报2637.00元/吨；沪铝主力上涨0.34%，报21930.00元/吨；沪锡 主力上涨2.02%，报311980.00元/吨。 备注：基差=现货价格-期货价格。 截止北京时间11月2日，据商品基差数据显示：锌、镍、工业硅、国际铜品种合约出现'期现倒挂'(现货 价格高于期货价格)现象。 | 商品名称 | 现货价格 | 合约 | 期货价格 | 基差 | 基差率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 88735 | 2601 | 89090 | -355 | -0.40% | | 锌 | 22720 | 2601 | 22705 | 15 | 0.07% | | 铝 | 21723.3 | 2601 | 21855 | -131 | -0.60% | | 铅 | 17156.2 | 2601 | 17180 | -23 | -0.13% | | 镍 | 120167 | 2601 | 117740 | 2427 ...

容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/03 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17075 1963 8.69 三月 17175 2005 11.33 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 16.01 跨期套利跟踪 2025/12/03 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -290 -280 -270 -360 理论价差 548 994 1449 1904 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be bullish [2] - Zinc: Likely to trade in a range [2] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Night trading saw copper prices close higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profit at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, while power source investment slows; auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night trading saw zinc prices close higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Overall, the difference in zinc supply and demand is not significant, and prices are likely to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Other Key Data | **Commodity** | **Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton)** | **Domestic Basis (yuan/ton)** | **Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton)** | **LME Spot Premium (USD/ton)** | **LME Inventory (tons)** | **LME Inventory Daily Change (tons)** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 89,210 | 50 | 11,233 | 69.10 | 159,425 | 2,250 | | Aluminum | 21,600 | - 60 | 2,888 | - 27.51 | 539,050 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,385 | 65 | 3,091 | 268.39 | 51,750 | 950 | | Nickel | 116,730 | - 3,020 | 14,875 | - 201.94 | 254,760 | - 690 | | Lead | 17,055 | - 55 | 2,000 | - 41.63 | 263,175 | - 1,000 | | Tin | 304,060 | 1,110 | 39,240 | 150.00 | 3,160 | 35 | [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 2, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the domestic spot price was 89280, the LME spot price was 11311, and the spot ratio was 7.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.03, with a profit of - 1332.99. The domestic March price was 89320, the LME March price was 11242, and the ratio was 7.93 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22550, the LME spot price was 3334, and the spot ratio was 6.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.43, with a profit of - 5558.00. The domestic March price was 22620, the LME March price was 3066, and the ratio was 5.55 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21730, the LME spot price was 2852, and the spot ratio was 7.61. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.30, with a profit of - 1955.44. The domestic March price was 21900, the LME March price was 2880, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119850, the LME spot price was 14698, and the spot ratio was 8.15. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.13, with a profit of - 1597.05 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, the LME spot price was 1941, and the spot ratio was 8.75. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.69, with a profit of 117.55. The domestic March price was 17055, the LME March price was 1983, and the ratio was 11.37 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On December 2, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot month were 1810, 1850, 1820, and 1710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 539, 977, 1423, and 1869 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 205, 235, 250, and 270 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, and 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 265, 300, 310, and 320 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 219, 339, 459, and 579 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 20, 0, 25, and 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 1120, 1330, 1510, and 1800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 330, and the theoretical spread was 6322 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1725 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 36 and 792 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 165 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 132 and 264 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 137 and 250 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On December 2, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.95, 4.08, 5.24, 0.97, 1.28, and 0.75 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.63, 3.89, 5.62, 0.93, 1.45, and 0.65 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Cautious long [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautious long [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautious long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term silver has a large - scale market affecting gold; geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold - buying support long - term gold investment; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps and short - term price increases, but caution is needed [1][2] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, prices hit new highs; avoid blind chasing, long - term bullish outlook [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price rebound, pay attention to inventory changes [1][10][13] - **Nickel**: Rebound under pressure, pay attention to downstream stainless - steel inventory [1][14][17] - **Lithium carbonate**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, wait for long - entry opportunities after high - level consolidation [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver experiences a short - term delivery squeeze, gold has long - term support [2] - **Basic Logic**: Powell's resignation rumor, geopolitical variables, long - term bullish for gold due to global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term pay attention to support levels, long - term value - based holdings, short - term caution [2] Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper hits a new high, SHFE copper follows [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production declines, inventory changes, and high premiums [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Avoid blind chasing, set trailing stops for long positions, long - term bullish, pay attention to price ranges [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc fluctuates in a range [8] - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and inventory changes, soft squeeze risk eases [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for more macro guidance, long - term short on rebounds, pay attention to price ranges [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebounds slightly, alumina is weak [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: Electrolytic aluminum supply is tight, demand improves; alumina is in excess, pay attention to bauxite supply [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term take profit and wait, pay attention to inventory changes, pay attention to price ranges [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebounds under pressure, stainless steel falls [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may cut nickel production, inventory changes, stainless - steel demand enters the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on dips and wait, pay attention to stainless - steel inventory, pay attention to price ranges [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, slightly falls at the end [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, production and demand conditions, wait for long - entry opportunities [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to price ranges [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and its main contract price reached the 87,500 yuan mark, while LME copper hit the $11,000 mark. Despite the stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively, with a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper has been decreasing this week, and the spot premium has strengthened, supporting the copper price. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $11,000 mark of LME copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum oscillated upwards today, with a slight increase in open interest, and its main contract price reached the 21,600 yuan mark. The US dollar index oscillated and stabilized, while non - ferrous metals rose across the board, creating a good bullish atmosphere. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has been decreasing since this week, supporting the aluminum price. In the short term, the aluminum price rebounded with the non - ferrous metal sector, but the change in open interest was small, indicating low capital attention [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the nickel price soared in the morning and then declined, oscillating narrowly above 117,000 yuan during the day. Although non - ferrous metals rose across the board, the nickel price performed relatively weakly. The spot premium of nickel decreased slightly. Against the backdrop of the strong performance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the liquidation of previous short positions may keep the nickel price in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Using aluminum instead of copper in air - conditioning products can significantly reduce manufacturing costs, especially for the price - sensitive mid - and low - end markets. Major air - conditioning brands have jointly issued an industry standard for aluminum substitution of copper. Rising copper prices may further promote the implementation of this substitution in the domestic air - conditioning industry [9]. - **Aluminum**: JPMorgan Chase expects that due to the attractiveness of rising copper prices, combined with the overall market balance and the short - term risk of supply decline, the aluminum price is expected to approach $3,000 per ton in Q1 2026. However, Indonesia has a vast aluminum supply channel, and its production capacity growth is about to reach a critical point in 2026. This emerging supply growth trend may eventually offset the rise in aluminum prices, but this impact will not be apparent until 2026 and the following years. On November 27, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10][11]. - **Nickel**: On November 28, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 119,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum bar inventory, etc [24][26][31]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].