Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level decline, strategic allocation value remains unchanged in the medium to long term [1] - Silver: High-level decline, long-term bullish after stabilization [1] - Copper: Long-term holding, short-term profit-taking [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short-term upside limited, medium to long-term bearish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range-bound operation [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various non-ferrous metals and new energy metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides insights into the short-term and long-term price trends, as well as investment strategies for each metal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the easing of Sino-US relations and the reduction of risk aversion, the prices of gold and silver have significantly adjusted. In the short term, risk assets have risen sharply, leading to an obvious outflow of funds from safe-haven gold and silver. However, in the long term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern, potentially maintaining a long-term upward trend [2][3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver. For domestic gold, focus on the 900 support level, and for silver, focus on the effectiveness of the 11000 support level. Long-term value investors should continue to hold their positions [4]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The price of copper has reached a new high this year, but it has given back some of its gains overnight. The market has fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino-US relations. In the short term, downstream demand is suppressed by high prices, and social inventories have increased. However, in the long term, copper is expected to benefit from the shortage of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [5][6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short-term long positions should be moved to take profits, and investors should avoid blindly chasing high prices. Long-term strategic long positions should be held, and industrial hedging should consider adding option protection. In the short term, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 86000 - 90000 yuan/ton, and the price of London copper is expected to trade in the range of 10600 - 11200 US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have continued to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long-term supply is relatively loose. The silver ten peak season has not been prosperous, and demand is under pressure. The domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas LME zinc inventories are at risk of a soft squeeze [8][9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space may be limited after the short-term macro policy stimulus fades. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the two resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the medium to long term, zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, remaining a short position in the sector. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, and the price of London zinc is expected to trade in the range of 2980 - 3080 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices have continued to rise, and the price of alumina has stabilized. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and domestic inventories have decreased. The demand side is relatively stable, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has remained flat [11][12][13]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices have rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices have also rebounded. Overseas, the supply of nickel ore has become relatively stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is in the peak season, but the performance is average, and the market is under pressure to destock [15][16][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is expected to be between 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price of lithium carbonate has shown a relatively strong trend. The fundamental situation has improved significantly, with total inventories decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the destocking rhythm accelerating after the holiday. Although the supply side continues to grow, the production in Sichuan has decreased slightly due to the shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, while the incremental contribution from the ramping up of salt lake production capacity. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production schedule for November is still relatively high [19][20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Long positions should be held, and investors can consider adding positions on pullbacks. The price of the main contract LC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 81000 - 84000 yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 28, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, ratios, equilibrium ratios, profits, spreads, and theoretical spreads [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 28, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88210, LME spot price was 11036, with a ratio of 7.94; the domestic March price was 88360, LME March price was 11060, with a ratio of 7.98. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.07, and the profit was - 797.43 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22210, LME spot price was 3251, with a ratio of 6.83; the domestic March price was 22390, LME March price was 3039, with a ratio of 5.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.48, and the profit was - 5375.30 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21160, LME spot price was 2890, with a ratio of 7.32; the domestic March price was 21380, LME March price was 2887, with a ratio of 7.36. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, and the profit was - 2886.43 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124400, LME spot price was 15155, with a ratio of 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the profit was - 1527.44 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17275, LME spot price was 1984, with a ratio of 8.70; the domestic March price was 17525, LME March price was 2018, with a ratio of 11.06. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the profit was - 49.75 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 670, 660, 680, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 541, 979, 1427, and 1874 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50, 75, 110, and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 155, 175, 175, and 175, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 335, 453, and 571 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 115, - 110, - 120, and - 190, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 322, 432, and 541 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 540, 700, 870, and 1080 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 200, and the theoretical spread was 5928 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were - 485 and 185, and the theoretical spreads were 287 and 872 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 105 and 155, and the theoretical spreads were 153 and 302 [5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 360 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 194 and 309 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 3.95, 4.13, 5.04, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.60, 3.82, 5.44, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Today, Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong intraday oscillation, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week, the macro - atmosphere improved significantly. A preliminary consensus was reached in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend. Against the backdrop of supply contraction in the industry and continuous improvement in both domestic and overseas macro - environments, copper prices continued to rise with increasing positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2024 high of LME copper [6]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum opened higher in the morning and then retraced, and oscillated upwards during the day, with the open interest rising continuously. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee last week and a preliminary consensus in the Sino - US trade talks over the weekend, the domestic macro - environment continued to improve. The decline in domestic electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rod inventories provided industrial support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high [7]. - Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the open interest decreased. Although the domestic and overseas macro - environments improved, nickel prices performed significantly weaker than the non - ferrous metal sector, mainly due to persistent industrial pressure and weak rebound momentum. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: As of October 27, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of China monitored by SMM increased by 0.29 million tons week - on - week to 18.45 million tons. The core reason for the inventory build - up this week was the simultaneous arrival of imported and domestic supplies, combined with weak outbound shipments. Looking ahead, SMM expects a concentrated arrival of imported supplies, and the demand side will be suppressed by the rising copper prices, so the weekly copper inventory is expected to increase [10]. - **Nickel**: On October 27, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 122500 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2450 yuan/ton, with a price of 124300 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124400 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, etc [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the resonance of macro and industrial positives drives the copper price to rise with increasing positions. Since the news of mine - end contraction on September 24th, the copper price has been on an upward trend. Macro - easing and supply contraction provide upward momentum, while high overseas COMEX inventories exert pressure. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $11,000 mark for LME copper [4]. - For aluminum, the improvement in the macro environment and the strengthening of industrial support lead to the increase of aluminum price with increasing positions. Recently, the inventories of electrolytic aluminum and downstream aluminum rods have been decreasing, and the industry also supports the futures price. Attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues. The macro - market has warmed up, which is beneficial to the non - ferrous sector [9][11]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price shows an upward trend with increasing positions. The report presents various data such as the price trends of Shanghai and LME copper, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the long - short positions of COMEX non - commercial traders [13][14][20]. 2.2 Copper Mine Inventory Depletion - The report shows the trends of copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees, indicating the situation of copper mine inventory depletion [25][26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory - Data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME) are presented, reflecting the inventory situation of electrolytic copper [27][28]. 2.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is shown, including sectors like refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper bars, and copper strips [30][32]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The aluminum price rises with increasing positions. The report shows the price trends of domestic and LME aluminum, the Shanghai - LME ratio, and the premium and discount situations [30][31][34]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina are presented, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [37][38][44]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Depletion - Data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory are shown, indicating the inventory depletion situation of electrolytic aluminum [42][43]. 3.4 Downstream Initial Segment - The capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the processing fees of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods are presented, reflecting the situation of the downstream initial segment [45][49][51]. 4. Conclusion - Similar to the core views, for copper, macro - easing and supply contraction drive the price up, while high overseas inventories exert pressure. For aluminum, the macro environment warms up, and the industry provides support, with the price rising with increasing positions [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference for zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - session copper prices closed slightly lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 87,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,947 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 25.97 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory was 136,925 tons, with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, power grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 187.37 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, with a daily decrease of 600 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, smelting output is expected to rise, galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,205 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,857 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 3.19 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory was 477,675 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,850 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,860 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,390 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,325 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 194.12 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory was 250,854 tons, with a daily decrease of 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,635 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 36.64 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 283,810 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,470 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,650 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 143.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory was 2,720 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].

姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 期货研究报告 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜领涨有色 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜增仓上行明显，尤其是午午后，涨幅超 1000 元/吨，逼 近节后 8.8 万高位。国内四中全会落幕，宏观氛围明显回暖。产业供 应收缩背景下，内外宏观持续回暖，铜价持续增仓上行。关注前期 高位技术压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝先抑后扬，午后反弹很大程度上受宏观氛围回暖影响。 国内电解铝和下游铝棒库存下降，给予铝价产业支撑。短期铝价增仓 突破 2.1 万关口，持续关注前期高位压力。 （仅供参考，不构 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper prices rose 1.49% to $10,817 per ton, with domestic prices slightly following. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal, Sino-US consultations, and improved market risk appetite boosted copper prices, and attention is on whether LME copper can break through previous highs [1]. - Overnight alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory reached a 3 - year high, with supply surplus pressure increasing, but it may be bottoming out. Aluminum ingot supply declined, and the de - stocking process was optimistic [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.29% and Shanghai nickel rose 0.8%. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was evident, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely, with caution for macro - level disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices increased. US housing data was stable, and Sino - US consultations were scheduled. The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal enhanced market confidence. LME, Comex, and domestic inventories showed different trends. Market risk appetite improved, and copper prices were expected to strengthen [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, while aluminum and aluminum alloy trended strongly. Alumina inventory hit a 3 - year high, with some high - cost producers near the break - even point. Overseas supply decreased, and domestic aluminum water supply increased, leading to a decline in aluminum ingot supply and optimistic de - stocking [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME and Shanghai nickel prices rose. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. The nickel - stainless steel and new energy industries had different situations. First - grade nickel inventory pressure was significant, and nickel prices were expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Prices of various copper products increased, and inventory changes were mixed. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [3]. - **Lead**: Prices of lead products generally increased, and inventory changes were different. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import profit increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Alumina inventory increased. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased slightly, and inventory changes were mixed. The 3 - cash CIF bill of lading price and active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%. Inventory changes were different, and the active contract import loss turned to zero [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. Inventory decreased, and the active contract import loss decreased [6]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts present the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. Non - Core Content (Team Introduction) - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional qualifications in the non - ferrous metals field [50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 24, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85,500, the LME price was 10,733, and the ratio was 7.96; the domestic three - month price was 86,000, the LME price was 10,745, and the ratio was 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,100, the LME price was 3,260, and the ratio was 6.78; the domestic three - month price was 22,370, the LME price was 3,035, and the ratio was 5.77. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, with a profit of - 5,619.46 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,040, the LME price was 2,819, and the ratio was 7.46; the domestic three - month price was 21,170, the LME price was 2,811, and the ratio was 7.51. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37, with a profit of - 2,543.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,400, the LME price was 14,999, and the ratio was 8.23. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a profit of - 1,318.15 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,125, the LME price was 1,971, and the ratio was 8.69; the domestic three - month price was 17,490, the LME price was 2,008, and the ratio was 11.08. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a profit of - 250.04 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 24, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 690, 620, 600, and 570 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, and 1828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 360, 385, 420, and 445, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, and 570 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 150, 155, 145, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 405, 330, 290, and 315, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 424, and 531 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 260, 450, 670, and 930 [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was - 790, and the theoretical spread was 5827 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 90 and 600, and the theoretical spreads were 397 and 971 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 115 and 245, and the theoretical spreads were 195 and 325 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 35 and 440, and the theoretical spreads were 161 and 275 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 24, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.84, 4.06, 4.92, 0.95, 1.21, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.58, 3.78, 5.38, 0.95, 1.42, and 0.67 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Today, the copper price increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 mark. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the copper price broke through the 86,000 mark with increasing positions and has strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, and the open interest continued to rise. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. In the short term, the aluminum price broke through the 21,000 mark with increasing positions. Continuous attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated and rose slightly at the end of the session, with the open interest rising accordingly. The market sentiment warmed up in the afternoon, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The nickel price is at a low level since September, but the industrial pressure remains, and the rebound of the nickel price is weak. Continuous attention should be paid to the low - level technical support [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, the current high copper price makes it difficult for end - customers to bear the cost pressure caused by the sharp rise in raw material prices. They prefer to consume their own inventories, resulting in a significant reduction in orders. This weak demand situation has been transmitted to the enameled wire sector, leading to insufficient orders in the industry recently and the continuous low operating rate of enterprises [8]. - **Nickel**: On October 23, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,800 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and注销仓单比例, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][39].