今日市场情绪亢奋，大量资金涌入沪铝，推动期价大涨，创历史新高，主力合约收涨5.75%，持仓增加逾5万手，资金流入超17亿元。 从交易所公布的持仓龙虎榜来看，沪铝多空持仓排名前20席位均呈入场态势，多头前20席位持仓量增加32432手至21.21万手，空头前二十席位持仓增加 31112手至24.15万手，多空比为0.88。今日早盘多头快速进场，多头能量集中释放，期价快速拉升。 从今日主力合约具体持仓来看，多头方面，永安期货席位表现最为抢眼，单日增持多单8148手，空头减持113手，居于多头第三位，为多头增仓的核心力 量。东证期货席位紧随其后，增持多单5467手，空单增持1821手。此外，中财期货席位及宏源期货席位今日净多头持仓规模明显扩大，分别增加4295手和 3467手，展现出看多预期。多头榜首国泰君安期货席位多头持仓增加5069手，在空单增持略多，达5998手，净空头持仓规模增加929手。空头榜首中信期货 席位同样也在多空两侧同时增仓，但其空头增仓更为明显，增持5884手，而多单仅增加752手，立场更偏空，为今日净空头持仓规模增加最大的席位。广发 期货席位进行多空双增操作，空头增持数量大于多头增持，由多翻空 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Today, the copper price opened high and moved higher, regaining the lost ground from last night and standing above the 103,000 mark. The US dollar index remained weak, hitting a low since the second half of 2025. The spot discount of copper slightly narrowed in the morning, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to weaken at the close. The pattern of strong industry expectations and weak reality remained unchanged [6]. - Today, the aluminum price significantly increased with an increase in positions. The positions of Shanghai aluminum increased by nearly 100,000 contracts during the session, and the open interest rose to 810,000 contracts. The weak US dollar index was favorable for non - ferrous metals. Market concerns about the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict significantly disturbing the aluminum product trading end pushed up the aluminum price in the short term. Downstream market sentiment remained wait - and - see, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to weaken [7]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated, and the open interest decreased. The weak US dollar index was favorable for non - ferrous metals. The port nickel ore inventory seasonally accumulated, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise. The expected supply contraction supported the nickel price, while the weak industry reality pressured it. The nickel price continued to fluctuate [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the spot purchasing demand for Shanghai copper slightly increased during the day, and holders were strongly willing to hold prices, causing the spot discount to slightly converge. High copper prices still suppressed downstream consumption, and weak terminal purchases led to continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. The widening spread between contracts under high inventory increased holders' willingness to deliver to warehouses, suppressing the liquidity of the spot market and supporting the repair of spot premiums and discounts. Near the end of the month, the demand for current - month bills declined, and the price of next - month invoices remained firm. The spot discount of Shanghai copper was expected to continue to be under pressure [10]. Aluminum - SMM reported that the core driving factors for the abnormal strengthening of the Shanghai aluminum price were: the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict significantly disturbing the aluminum product trading end; the diversion of funds from the precious metals market to the base metals sector under the background of position limits; and the increasing expectation of production cuts by domestic alumina plants, further boosting the overall market's bullish sentiment [11]. - Deutsche Bank predicted that the copper price would climb to a peak of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter, mainly driven by tightening supply and demand. However, the price might decline in the second half of the year as the production of several major mines gradually recovered. The aluminum price was expected to reach an annual high of $3,100 per ton in the second quarter and then gradually decline from the second half of the year. The average price for the whole year of 2026 was expected to be about $2,925 per ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - The report presented charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单 ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - The report included charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provided charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Copper - Today, the copper price opened lower in the morning, with the main contract price fluctuating around 100,200 yuan. It rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The weak US dollar index, fluctuating narrowly around 97, is favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, electrolytic copper stocks increased slightly on Monday, and the spread between February and March contracts rebounded slightly today. There is a short - term risk of the copper price weakening due to a potential decline in silver prices from their high levels [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Today, the aluminum price first declined and then rose. It dropped to the 24,000 - yuan mark in the morning and continued to rebound in the afternoon, with the open interest decreasing continuously. The weak US dollar index is favorable for non - ferrous metals. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise this Monday, and the downstream market remained in a wait - and - see attitude. The spread between February and March contracts rebounded slightly today. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark [7]. 2.3 Nickel - Today, the nickel price oscillated weakly, with the open interest decreasing continuously. The weak US dollar index is favorable for non - ferrous metals. In the short term, as the precious metals sector declined from its high levels, dragging down the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel showed a significant decline with reduced positions, indicating a strong willingness among short - term bulls to close positions. On the industrial side, the port nickel ore inventory increased seasonally, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 145,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Copper - Starting from the close of trading and settlement on January 28, 2026 (Wednesday), the daily price limit and trading margin ratio for copper futures listed contracts will be adjusted. The daily price limit will be adjusted to 9%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 10%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 11%. On January 26, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 341,400 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons compared to the 22nd [10][11]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On January 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 796,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the 22nd [12]. 3.1.3 Nickel - On January 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 144,100 - 152,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 148,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 6,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 300 - 600 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Related Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][16][17]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][44].

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色高开低走 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价高开低走，持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面，美元指数持续 弱势运行，利好铜价。从盘面来看，贵金属持续强势，早盘高开带 动有色集体高开，但随后有色和贵金属分化明显。产业层面，铜价 反弹，下游采购意愿再度下降，周一电解铜小幅累库，02-03 月差走 弱明显。 沪镍 今日镍价冲高回落，盘中突破 15 万关口，持仓量随着价格同向变 化。宏观层面，美元指数弱势，利好有色。今日镍价虽然午后随着有 色板块一同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the industrial metal market, particularly copper, is expected to experience a supply shortage due to various constraints, while demand is projected to grow, driven by economic recovery and the energy transition [1][2][3] - The recent performance of the Dazhong Nonferrous ETF (159980) shows a significant increase in both scale and shares, reaching a new high of 79.24 billion yuan and 3.73 billion shares respectively, with a notable net inflow of 46.63 billion yuan over the past 40 days [1] - Copper prices have shown resilience despite multiple negative factors, with recent prices recorded at $13,128 per ton in London and 102,830 yuan per ton in Shanghai, supported by supply constraints and declining ore grades [1][2] Group 2 - Citic Securities highlights that the prices of industrial metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with expectations of a recovery in demand for copper and aluminum due to low global inventories and economic recovery in China [2] - Huatai Securities forecasts that global electrolytic copper supply will remain limited in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of only 66,000 tons, while demand is expected to grow by 93,000 tons, potentially leading to a shift from surplus to shortage [2] - The Dazhong Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is positioned to capture overall opportunities in the industrial metal sector, with its underlying assets including copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel futures [3]

1月20日，上海市多部门联合发布《加强期现联动 提升有色金属大宗商品能级行动方案》（下称 《行动方案》）。 傅小燕进一步分析，期现联动是基础与核心，打通期现货和场外市场，让期货价格真实反映实体供 需，为国际投资者提供可靠的价格信号和套保工具；国际化提升是关键杠杆，让更多的人了解和使 用"上海价格"；生态培育是系统保障，吸引并留住全球产业链核心企业、金融机构和专业服务机构，形 成良性循环。 格林大华期货首席专家王骏认为，《行动方案》出台，标志着上海建设全球有色金属区域定价中心 由规划阶段迈入系统协同实施阶段。 依托独特优势，上海在有色金属领域已形成期货、现货、场外衍生品市场联动发展的格局。《行动 方案》以三方面18项举措再提能级：推进市场互通，促进期—现—衍联动发展；提升国际化水平， 使"上海价格"更具国际影响力；集聚市场主体，培育良好生态圈。 "期现联动、国际化提升、生态培育三大方向不孤立，而是构成了一个彼此驱动、循环增强的协同 系统，共同服务于资源配置与定价影响力两个核心目标。"南华期货研究院高级总监傅小燕表示。 傅小燕补充，此时推出《行动方案》，正是对接国家战略：一方面依托金融开放与大宗商品保供稳 价，助 ...

Report Summary of Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price closed 0.43% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the copper price may have a phase - wise correction [2]. - The zinc price closed 0.53% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. After the release of the overall optimistic sentiment in non - ferrous metals, the zinc price may have a phase - wise correction [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price and Market Conditions - **Copper**: Night - session copper price down 0.43%, domestic previous - day futures closing price 100,440 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 185 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 12,756 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 82.84 dollars/ton, LME inventory 159,400 tons with a daily increase of 3,100 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 24,085 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 3,133 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 18.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory 507,175 tons with a daily increase of 24,175 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - session zinc price down 0.53%, domestic previous - day futures closing price 24,305 yuan/ton, domestic basis 35 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 3,233 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 36.66 dollars/ton, LME inventory 111,850 tons with a daily decrease of 450 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 143,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 3,020 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 18,100 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 205.73 dollars/ton, LME inventory 284,664 tons with a daily decrease of 72 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 17,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 2,034 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 45.02 dollars/ton, LME inventory 222,650 tons with a daily decrease of 2,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 418,420 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 3,600 yuan/ton, previous - day LME3 - month contract closing price 52,660 dollars/ton, LME spot premium - 189.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 7,210 tons with a daily increase of 250 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Copper**: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output continues to grow, power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand gap [2]. - **Zinc**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continues to grow, galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance output is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Overall supply - demand differences are not obvious [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has made significant adjustments to margin ratios and price limits for gold, silver, and other futures contracts in response to the extreme volatility in global commodity prices, particularly in early 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Adjustments and Rationale - On January 22, 2026, SHFE adjusted the margin ratios and price limits for various futures contracts, which was seen as a quick response to the action plan released by Shanghai to enhance the linkage between spot and futures markets for non-ferrous metals [2][5]. - The adjustments aim to increase market liquidity and improve price discovery efficiency while strengthening risk management measures [3][5]. - The volatility in commodity prices has intensified, particularly for precious metals and some non-ferrous metals, leading to increased risk management pressures for market participants, especially those in the physical industry [3][10]. Group 2: Specific Changes in Margin and Price Limits - For gold futures contracts nearing delivery, the price limit was expanded to 16%, with margin ratios raised to 17% for hedging and 18% for speculative trading [5]. - Silver futures saw even larger adjustments, with price limits increased to 17% and margin ratios set at 18% for hedging and 19% for speculation [5]. - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum had their price limits unified at 8%, with margin ratios adjusted to 9% for hedging and 10% for speculation [6]. Group 3: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The adjustments are viewed as a necessary measure to prevent extreme market conditions and ensure liquidity, especially for entities holding significant positions [11][12]. - The changes reflect a more mature market, allowing for greater price fluctuations to better reflect supply and demand dynamics [6][12]. - Future risk management may involve more dynamic and differentiated approaches, potentially including complex margin models that consider volatility and correlation [14][17]. Group 4: Industry Response and Innovations - Companies are evolving their risk management strategies, seeking more sophisticated tools beyond traditional futures hedging, such as options and customized risk management solutions [16]. - The Shanghai Clearing House is expanding its services to enhance transparency and reduce counterparty credit risk in the over-the-counter market [16]. - There is a growing expectation for the development of supply chain financial products that leverage the authoritative pricing and standardized warehouse receipt systems of the Shanghai futures market [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has made significant adjustments to margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for gold, silver, and other futures contracts, effective January 22, 2026, in response to recent market volatility and to enhance risk management and liquidity [2][4][10]. Margin and Price Fluctuation Adjustments - The SHFE has implemented differentiated adjustments for various contracts, increasing the price fluctuation limit for near-month gold futures to 16% and raising margin ratios to 17% for hedging and 18% for speculative trading [4][5]. - For silver futures, the fluctuation limit has been expanded to 17%, with margin ratios set at 18% for hedging and 19% for speculation [4]. - Copper and aluminum futures have a unified fluctuation limit of 8% and margin ratios of 9% for hedging and 10% for speculation [5]. Market Context and Implications - The adjustments are a response to significant price volatility in commodities, particularly precious and non-ferrous metals, with gold prices nearing historical highs and domestic copper prices frequently setting new records [2][10]. - Increased volatility has heightened risk management pressures for market participants, especially for companies in the physical supply chain [2][10]. Industry Perspectives - Analysts view the adjustments as a sign of market maturity, allowing for more accurate price reflection and reducing price distortion caused by narrow fluctuation limits [6]. - The changes are seen as a structured optimization of risk management parameters, aimed at preventing systemic risks and ensuring effective risk management for enterprises [6][9]. Operational Challenges for Enterprises - Companies like Yunnan Copper have expressed concerns about increased margin requirements leading to higher capital costs, while also recognizing the necessity of these measures to prevent larger market disruptions [8][9]. - The adjustments create a complex scenario for traders, balancing the need for additional capital against the benefits of increased price fluctuation space [8]. Future Trends in Risk Management - The SHFE's adjustments are anticipated to lead to more dynamic and differentiated risk management strategies, potentially incorporating more complex margin models in the future [11]. - There is a growing demand for innovative risk management tools among enterprises, moving beyond traditional hedging to include customized solutions like options and forward swaps [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 23, 2026, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit data [1][3][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 23, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100110, the LME spot price was 12762, with a ratio of 7.89; the domestic three - month price was 100900, the LME three - month price was 12845, with a ratio of 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.90, with a profit of - 498.98, and the profit for spot export was - 159.97 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24300, the LME spot price was 3163, with a ratio of 7.68; the domestic three - month price was 24445, the LME three - month price was 3200, with a ratio of 5.34. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33, with a profit of - 2042.42 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 23740, the LME spot price was 3110, with a ratio of 7.63; the domestic three - month price was 24100, the LME three - month price was 3129, with a ratio of 7.65. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, with a profit of - 2153.83 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 140200, the LME spot price was 17829, with a ratio of 7.86. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00, with a profit of 427.18 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16900, the LME spot price was 1987, with a ratio of 8.51; the domestic three - month price was 17185, the LME three - month price was 2032, with a ratio of 11.95. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.55, with a profit of - 86.18 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 350, - 150, 70, and 50 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 607, 1113, 1627, and 2141 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 95, 140, 175, and 180 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 355, 486, and 616 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 30, 15, 55, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 231, 364, 496, and 629 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 80, 125, 165, and 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 320, - 140, 100, and 140 respectively [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 3280, and the theoretical spread was 8334 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 1020 and 670 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 632 and 1133 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 5 and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 188 and 329 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160 and 240 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 182 and 295 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The cross - variety ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 4.13, 4.19, 5.87, 0.99, 1.40, and 0.70 respectively; in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.97, 4.07, 6.31, 0.98, 1.55, and 0.63 respectively [5]