浙商期货能源高级研究员张泽宇称，2026年原油市场虽可能面临伊朗地缘局势等短期扰动，但中长期供 大于需的格局难以改变。 相关行业 OPEC+实施暂停增产举措，国际原油价格获得支撑，布伦特油价升至超68美元/桶。国内方面，《2025 年国内外油气行业发展报告》显示，2025年国内油气产量达4.2亿吨油当量，创历史新高，行业整体稳 中求进，保障能源安全成效显著。 市场将目光聚焦于原油供应端格局变化，叠加国内能源保供政策持续推进，油气行业相关业务布局和产 能释放情况受到关注，同时原油价格波动对上下游产业链的传导效应也成为讨论方向。 中信期货表示，伊朗及俄罗斯地缘局势、OPEC+二季度产量预期等供应端因素仍是2月原油市场关注的 核心，目前地缘溢价仍存，短期重点关注美伊谈判动向及印度对俄罗斯石油购买进展。 平安证券指出，伊朗局势升级，短期内油价或呈现震荡偏强走势；中长期油价锚定基本面，随着 OPEC+增产的推进、美洲国家油田的开发，基本面过剩格局或将继续演绎。 恒力石化：作为国内民营炼化一体化龙头企业，公司打通"原油-芳烃、烯烃-PTA、乙二醇-聚酯新材 料"产业链，依托上下游一体化布局降低成本波动影响，推进"油转特" ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.27%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.11%, the ChiNext down 3.28%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board down 4.31% [1] - Citic Securities highlights a conflict between short-term interests and long-term value in overseas markets, driven by a heightened urgency for real economy investments and the disruptive innovation brought by AI [1] - China’s capital market has already transitioned towards real economy pricing, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements, suggesting that short-term market fluctuations should not cause anxiety [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position for the holiday" strategy to mitigate risks while retaining opportunities for the post-holiday spring market, particularly in a transitional phase where policy expectations have partially materialized [2] - The focus should be on two main lines: the "anti-involution" concept driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and the emphasis on sectors with safety margins in valuations, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, cement, and financials [2] - The second line of focus includes key areas like semiconductors, AI, new energy, military, and aerospace, which are aligned with the new production capacity logic in the domestic economy [2] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities indicates that the market will maintain a structurally active and oscillating pattern, with technology sectors remaining active in the short term, particularly in AI applications, robotics, and semiconductor equipment [3] - High-dividend sectors are expected to gain traction as the market transitions from high-elasticity trading to more certain configurations post-Spring Festival, with a focus on low-valuation, stable earnings, and high dividend certainty [3] Group 4 - Guojin Securities notes that the global AI industry cycle is entering a new phase, with a shift in focus towards infrastructure investments that cannot be disrupted by AI, leading to a revaluation of physical assets [4] - Recommendations include investing in physical assets like oil, copper, aluminum, and lithium, as well as sectors with global comparative advantages such as electrical equipment and engineering machinery [4] - The consumption recovery channel is expected to benefit from capital inflows, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel re-entry, particularly in aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverage sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global AI industry is entering a second phase, leading to a shift in the performance of the technology chain, making it complex to determine which companies will succeed [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The trend of recovery in overseas manufacturing is strengthening, indicating a shift in the core contradictions of AI investment towards infrastructure represented by energy [1] - A quiet revaluation of global physical assets that cannot be disrupted by AI is beginning, with the return of funds from export enterprises signaling a resonance between domestic and external demand [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The revaluation logic of physical assets is shifting from liquidity and dollar credit to low inventory and stabilizing demand, focusing on commodities such as crude oil, oil transportation, copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, and rare earths [1] - The Chinese equipment export chain, which has a global comparative advantage and confirmed cyclical bottom, includes sectors like power grid equipment, energy storage, engineering machinery, and wafer manufacturing [1] - Domestic manufacturing sectors that are at the bottom of the cycle include petrochemicals, dyeing, coal chemicals, pesticides, polyurethane, and titanium dioxide [1] - The consumption recovery channel is driven by the return of funds, easing of balance sheet pressures, and trends in personnel entry, focusing on sectors like aviation, duty-free, hotels, and food and beverages [1] - Non-bank financials are expected to benefit from the expansion of capital markets and the bottoming out of long-term asset returns [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the basic chemical industry's weekly data, covering price and profit changes in multiple sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, coal - chemical, and animal nutrition, and also tracks the stock price performance and profitability of related listed companies [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: - **Stock Price Changes**: The basic chemical index decreased by 2.1% in the past week, increased by 9.0% in the past month, 17.6% in the past three months, 48.7% in the past year, and 10.4% since the beginning of 2026. Among the related listed companies, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (002001.SZ) had a 6.8% increase in the past week, while other companies such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH) and Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SH) had varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Profitability**: The report provides the total market value, stock price, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,500 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 14,377 yuan/ton respectively. The corresponding weekly changes were - 43 yuan/ton, + 36 yuan/ton, and + 292 yuan/ton, and the gross margins were 4,097 yuan/ton, 1,497 yuan/ton, and 2,345 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,277 yuan/ton, 4,399 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton, and 4,137 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 139 yuan/ton, + 51 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and + 63 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of polyethylene production through different processes and polypropylene production through different processes also had corresponding changes [2][8]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,119 yuan/ton, 1,758 yuan/ton, 4,004 yuan/ton, and 2,511 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 65 yuan/ton, + 13 yuan/ton, + 41 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross margins also changed [2]. - **Animal Nutrition Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine were 61.4 yuan/kg, 55.9 yuan/kg, 18.2 yuan/kg, and 14.3 yuan/kg respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.1 yuan/kg, + 0.9 yuan/kg, + 0.3 yuan/kg, and + 0.1 yuan/kg [2][9]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: The report does not elaborate on the basic chemical index trend but focuses on the performance data of the index and related companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Plate**: Analyzes the price trends and price - spread situations of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in China [16][19]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate**: Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as the profitability of different processes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [23][31][38]. - **Coal - Chemical Plate**: Covers the price and gross margin trends of coal - coking products and traditional coal - chemical products, as well as some new materials [40][45][52]. - **Animal Nutrition Plate**: Analyzes the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [57][59][63].

安徽省人大代表、中安联合煤化有限责任公司党委书记、副董事长、总经理，煤化工分公司党委书记施 华彪表示，省政府工作报告总结的成绩令人振奋，"安徽经济总量迈上5.3万亿元新台阶，稳步迈入工业 大省、经济大省行列，作为省人大代表，我倍感自豪。"报告对2026年工作和"十五五"发展的谋划，贴 合安徽实际、措施务实，进一步增强了企业发展信心。 （来源：新安晚报） 转自：新安晚报 施华彪认为，新质生产力发展应统筹"新"与"质"两个维度，既要布局未来，也要立足当下。"中安联合 已通过'揭榜挂帅'组建煤基高分子材料产业创新研究院，聚焦前沿科技攻关与未来产业孵化。"同时， 他建议加大对"应用科技"的支持力度，助力传统企业转型升级：推动产品与服务升级，强化工艺优化； 提升全要素生产率，加强技能培训，推动数字技术与实体经济深度融合；盘活存量资产，推动现有资源 保值增值；深化绿色转型，鼓励节能改造与资源循环利用。 "发展新质生产力，必须'新''质'并重。"施华彪表示，既要通过科技创新布局未来、赢得长远，也要通 过应用科技破解当下转型难题，政府与企业协同发力，推动创新链与产业链深度融合，实现传统企业焕 新升级。 此次参会，施华彪带来《 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四尿素现货市场多数稳定，个别地区价格仍有小幅上调。昨日山东、河南市场价格分别为 | 1780 元/吨、1760 元/吨，日环比分别上调 10 元/吨、维持稳定。基本面来看，尿素供应水 | | | | 平快速提升，昨日行业日产量 21.4 万吨，日环比增 0.37 万吨，后续供应水平仍有提升空间。 | 需求表现继续分化，昨日主流地区产销率部分仍能维持 100%以上，部分维持 70%～80%， | | | | 尿素 | 宽幅震荡 | 个别地区仅有 10%附近。节前尿素企业仍有订单支撑，但随着物流运力逐渐下降，企业库存 | | | 也将逐步累积。整体来看，尿素现货市场活跃度或逐步下降，市场平稳运行。期货价格延续 | 宽幅震荡趋势，上有顶下有底状态持续存在。关注尿素现货成交情况、企业节前预收订单及 | | | | 价格变化，另需关注宏观政策、商品市场整体情绪。 | | | | | 周四纯碱现货价格维持稳定，贸易商报价跟随盘面情绪回 ...

Core Insights - The Ningxia Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base plays a crucial role in the national energy strategy, with its modern coal chemical pilot platform serving as a key hub for connecting laboratory research and industrialization [1] Group 1: Importance of the Pilot Platform - The pilot platform is the first of its kind in the Northwest region and addresses common challenges in chemical pilot projects, such as lengthy approvals and slow implementation [1] - It employs a collaborative model of "Eastern R&D + Western maturation" and a "1+N+X" service system to attract innovation resources to the West, fostering the development of coal-based new materials and green chemicals [1] Group 2: Policy Innovations for Accelerating Technology Transfer - The platform has introduced innovative policies to streamline the approval process, allowing pilot projects to be completed within two months from initiation to entry [2] - It has successfully attracted 41 projects, with 70% sourced from Eastern regions, and established a technology investment model that promotes rapid industrialization of high-tech achievements [2] Group 3: Comprehensive Support Infrastructure - The platform features a production operation center, collaborative innovation center, and testing center, along with advanced facilities and a shared equipment platform to support enterprises from small trials to industrialization [3] - It has invested approximately 188 million yuan in advanced equipment, achieving domestic and international standards in various technologies [3] Group 4: Deep Engagement in Project Development - The platform actively collaborates with companies to optimize processes and improve product yields, exemplified by a lithium battery project that increased yield from 78% to 82% [4] - It has also addressed production challenges in other projects, demonstrating its role as an "innovation partner" rather than just a service provider [4] Group 5: Building a Sustainable Innovation Ecosystem - The platform aims to create a sustainable innovation ecosystem by linking a core pilot platform with multiple enterprise pilot workshops and national research institutions [5] - It focuses on a comprehensive R&D transformation system, targeting key areas such as industrial catalysis and green chemistry to support high-quality development in the Ningdong coal chemical industry [6] Group 6: Future Development Goals - The platform's short-term goal is to become a leading pilot platform in China, covering key industrial chains and meeting diverse technological needs [6] - In the long term, it aims to establish multiple public pilot lines for low-risk common technologies, supporting the transition of the modern coal chemical industry towards high-end and green development [6]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周三尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1787元/吨，日环比提升0.56%。现货市场价 | 震荡 | | | 格多数稳定，个别地区价格小幅回落。昨日山东、河南市场价格分别为1770元/吨、1760元/ | | | | 吨，日环比分别维持稳定、下跌10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素日产量近期高位波动，昨日21. | | | | 03万吨，日环比增0.17万吨，后续气头企业复产仍将带动尿素供应提升。需求跟进情绪较仍 | | | | 较为积极，部分地区价格下调后市场成交明显好转，昨日主流地区产销率提升至120%~180% | | | | 高位。短期市场采购需求、旺季备肥需求仍有支撑，但后续春节临近，中下游采购力度及 | 宽幅 | | | 市场活跃度或有所回落。生产企业为预收假期订单或继续灵活调整价格，但在价格跌至中 | | | | 下游可接受价位时采购需求也仍将给市场托底。本周尿素企业库存继续下降2.79%，利于厂 | | | | 家稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for each variety: - **Bearish**: Crude oil (Short - term bearish rebound), LPG (Cautiously bearish), L (Bearish consolidation), PP (Bearish consolidation), MEG (Cautiously bearish), Methanol (Cautiously bearish), Urea (Cautiously chase up), LNG (Cautiously bearish), Asphalt (Cautiously bearish) [1][2][4] - **Bullish**: PVC (Oscillating strongly), PTA (Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks) [1][26] - **Neutral**: Glass (Low - level oscillation), Soda Ash (Bearish consolidation) [4] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product, emphasizing the importance of risk management due to geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand changes. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term bearish rebound, with long - term downward pressure due to supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause price fluctuations. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the arrival of the demand off - season exerts downward pressure on prices. Key variables include US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [465 - 480] [9] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens as the geopolitical premium of oil prices declines. Chemical demand weakens, with a decrease in PDH operating rates. Although port inventories have decreased, the overall fundamentals are bearish [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price center is expected to continue to decline. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices, the fundamentals are bearish. PG focus range: [4150 - 4250] [13] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [14] - **Main Logic**: Standard product devices are returning, leading to weaker basis and monthly spreads. The industry is slightly accumulating inventory, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended that the industry consider selling hedges on rallies. With the return of devices, production is expected to increase this week, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season [17] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] [17] PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [18] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and it follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The current supply - demand situation is weak, with a 22% parking ratio, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are low, providing cost support [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [21] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - **Core View**: Oscillating strongly [22] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, with stronger basis and monthly spreads. Although the short - term export situation is good, the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Core View**: Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks [26] - **Main Logic**: Valuation has been repaired, with improved processing fees. Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. PX supply - demand is in a weak balance. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 05 contract and consider buying on pullbacks. TA05 focus range: [5110 - 5230] [27] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [28] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation has been repaired, but supply - demand is weakening. Domestic device operating rates have increased, overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, and port inventories are rising. Downstream demand is seasonally weak [29] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3710 - 3810] [30] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. Domestic device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly, but there is short - term bullish support due to geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas natural gas costs [33] - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is weak. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 focus range: [2235 - 2295] [35] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up [2] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strong. The overall operating load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short - term but is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The export situation is relatively good, but the spread of the arbitrage window has narrowed [37] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focus range: [1770 - 1800] [39] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [40] - **Main Logic**: The impact of the cold wave on gas prices has weakened. Although the demand for heating in winter provides support, the supply is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices [43] - **Strategy**: NG focus range: [3.370 - 3.665] [44] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [45] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause oil price fluctuations. The supply - demand of asphalt is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost is affected by the supply of Venezuelan crude oil [48] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. BU focus range: [3300 - 3400] [49] Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation [50] - **Main Logic**: The suspension of coal exports from Indonesia has pushed up coal prices, and the basis has weakened. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, with high - level inventory slightly decreasing. The daily melting volume has increased, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [53] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. FG focus range: [1070 - 1120] [53] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [54] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand changes are small, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and short - term device maintenance has increased, putting pressure on supply [57] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance intensifies. SA focus range: [1190 - 1240] [57]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices opened lower, with the chemical sector experiencing volatility, as evidenced by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index declining by 0.6% [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has seen a net inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan over the past 14 trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The shift in national and local policies from energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions is expected to impose more direct emission reduction pressures on high-carbon industries like chemicals, leading to further supply-side contraction [1] Group 2 - Global chemical production capacity expansion is nearing its end, and industry activities aimed at reducing internal competition are limiting capacity growth [1] - There is potential for increased overseas downstream demand due to global liquidity easing, which could enhance the elasticity of the chemical industry if the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive [1] - As of February 2, 2026, the China Chemical Price Index rose to 4092, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.1% [1] Group 3 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index includes leading companies in petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and coal chemicals, focusing on sub-industries with clear supply-demand improvements and sensitivity to price increases [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has a management fee rate of 0.15% per year, the lowest among all ETFs in the market, facilitating low-cost investment in leading chemical enterprises [1]