Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting a focus on emerging industries with significant policy support [1][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that active investment strategies outperform passive ones, with the past decade's performance of the Chinese Embassy Index at an annualized return of only 2.2%, significantly lower than GDP growth [1][3]. - Emerging industries supported by the Five-Year Plan have yielded an average return of 40% over the past five years, surpassing the CSI 300 Index, which remained flat during the same period [3][5]. - The report identifies 35 sub-industries with a total market capitalization of $13 trillion as investment targets under the "14th Five-Year Plan," based on a detailed analysis of 400 policy-related statements [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - A flagship investment portfolio has been constructed, consisting of 50 stocks across 21 sectors, including artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and clean energy, with a growth of 36% over the past year, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 13 percentage points [1][6][8]. - The selection criteria for stocks include growth expectations of over 20% in sales or earnings within two years, a PEG ratio below 2.5, and a focus on high-quality companies [6][7]. Market Opportunities - The report highlights that the Asian market is more susceptible to policy support, with a focus on small to medium-sized tech hardware and semiconductor companies in the onshore market, while offshore markets are directed towards large internet companies and undervalued firms [7][8]. - Domestic consumption is a key priority in the Five-Year Plan, with significant potential in sectors like tourism, entertainment, and new consumption themes, which are expected to benefit from policy backing [9][10]. Policy Impact - The inclusion of anti-pollution measures in the Five-Year Plan is projected to enhance corporate earnings by approximately 1.5% over the next five years, particularly benefiting heavily impacted sectors such as chemicals and metals [11][12]. - The report suggests that the next significant policy clarity will emerge during the March meetings, which will be crucial for adjusting investment strategies [12].

存储芯片价格飙升影响正在波及全球，压力已经传导至科技硬件厂商，手机、PC、服务器制造商 或将持续面临挑战。 11月20日，联想集团发布了截至2025年9月30日的2025/26财年第二季度以及中期业绩，再次交出一 份创新高的成绩单：当季营收204.52亿美元，同比增长15%，创下季度历史新高；首次披露AI相关业务 收入情况，在总营收中占比提升至30%；全球个人电脑市场份额创新高，达到25.6%。 分业务来看，截至9月30日止的这一季度，智能设备业务集团收入151.07亿美元，基础设施方案业 务集团收入40.87亿美元，方案服务业务集团收入25.56亿美元，三大业务板块均收获同比增长。 智能设备业务增长主要受惠于人工智能计算机出货比例迅速上升及高端产品销售表现强劲。其中第 二财季，联想人工智能电脑渗透率提升至占总出货量的33%，并以31.1%的市场份额巩固在全球 Windows AI PC中的领导地位。 需要注意的是，尽管人工智能浪潮推动所有业务均录得双位数的同比增长，但供应链成本压力依然 在业绩中有所体现。 第二财季，联想集团公司权益持有人应占溢利为3.40亿美元，同比下降5%；毛利率下降0.3个百分 点至1 ...

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of fund managers' perspectives and strategies based on their recent quarterly reports, highlighting different investment styles and market outlooks [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers express varying views on market conditions, with some maintaining optimism about equity assets due to low interest rates and the potential for corporate earnings recovery [17][18]. - Different investment styles are categorized, including deep value, growth value, balanced, and growth styles, each with distinct characteristics and focus areas [19][35][51]. Group 2: Deep Value Style - Deep value managers focus on low valuation metrics such as low P/E ratios and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [10][12]. - Historical performance shows that this style performed well in 2016-2017 and 2021-2024, while underperforming in 2019-2020 [15][16]. Group 3: Growth Value Style - Growth value managers prioritize companies with strong profitability and stable cash flows, often holding stocks for the long term [20][22]. - Concerns about market risks and valuation levels are noted, with some managers highlighting the extreme valuation disparities across sectors [22][24]. Group 4: Balanced Style - Balanced style managers seek a combination of growth and value, focusing on companies with favorable PEG ratios and exploring opportunities across various sectors [35][36]. - They emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio while identifying high-quality investment opportunities [40][46]. Group 5: Growth Style - Growth style managers focus on high revenue and earnings growth, often investing in emerging industries such as AI, renewable energy, and technology [51][62]. - The article notes a shift in focus from technology to consumer sectors as the market stabilizes, with an emphasis on identifying companies with strong growth potential [55][58]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued structural opportunities despite potential short-term volatility [40][62]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios in response to macroeconomic conditions, focusing on sectors with strong growth prospects and managing risks associated with high valuations [31][70].

Market Overview - US stock index futures are collectively down, with Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 futures down 0.48%, and Dow futures down 0.65% [1] - Major European indices are also down, with Germany's DAX down 1.34%, UK's FTSE 100 down 1.39%, France's CAC down 1.4%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.42% [1] Economic Indicators - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 42.9% according to CME's FedWatch tool [1] Corporate Developments - Amazon plans to issue bonds for the first time in three years, aiming to raise $15 billion to support AI development [4] - AMD and Eviden will power Europe's first $100 billion supercomputer located in France [5] - Chevron is reportedly participating in the bidding for the overseas assets of Russian energy giant Lukoil [9] Company Performance - Home Depot reported Q3 net sales of $41.35 billion, with same-store sales growth of 0.2%, which was below expectations [10] - Baidu's Q3 revenue reached 31.2 billion yuan, with AI business revenue growing over 50% and exceeding expectations; global ride-hailing service "萝卜快跑" saw a 212% year-on-year increase in service instances [11] - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue grew 9% year-on-year to 108.28 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit increasing 14% year-on-year to 31.38 billion yuan [11] - Trip.com reported a 16% year-on-year revenue increase to 18.3 billion yuan, with net profit significantly rising to 19.9 billion yuan compared to 6.8 billion yuan in the same period last year [12] - Weibo's Q3 net revenue decreased by 5% year-on-year to $442 million, while advertising revenue from Alibaba surged by 112% year-on-year [13] Market Sentiment - "New Bond King" Gundlach noted signs of speculation in AI and data centers, recommending holding 20% cash for the winter [1] - "Big Short" Burry suggested a simultaneous long position in MOH and short position in PLTR, describing it as a perfect combination [2] Industry Trends - October iPhone sales in China surged by 37%, with market share reaching 25% for the first time since 2022 [3] - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic have seen a 30% price reduction in the US, with the out-of-pocket entry price dropping to $199 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lenovo, as a leading global PC and server manufacturer, is expected to benefit significantly from the upcoming upgrade cycle in 2025, leading to an increased buy rating and a target price adjustment to HKD 20 from HKD 15 [1][2] - Lenovo is transitioning from a technology hardware giant to a service-oriented company, leveraging its 25% market share in active PC users and strong reputation in the PC and server sectors to drive growth in services and solutions [1] - The company is well-positioned in the AI wave, with its AI assistant "Xiao Tian" integrated with DeepSeek, enhancing capabilities such as summarization, translation, and transcription, which is expected to boost AI PC shipment volumes significantly [1] Group 2 - Lenovo's server business is poised to benefit from the super cycle of AI infrastructure in China, with the server market projected to exceed USD 140 billion by 2029, directly impacting Lenovo's order volume [2] - In the period from April to June 2025, Lenovo's AI server revenue saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 155%, supported by strong partnerships and innovative cooling technologies that reduce data center power consumption [2] - Lenovo currently holds approximately 35% of the AI cloud server revenue in China, with expectations to exceed 20% market share by 2028 as large-scale deployments and water cooling technology become standard in new AI data centers [2]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "buy" rating for Lenovo (00992) and raises the target price to HKD 20 from HKD 15, citing benefits from the 2025 upgrade cycle [1] Group 1: Transition to Service-Oriented Company - Lenovo is transitioning from a technology hardware giant to a service-oriented company, leveraging its 25% market share in active PC users and strong reputation in PCs and servers to drive growth in services and solutions [2] - The company is well-positioned in the AI wave due to its extensive production expertise and product innovation [2] Group 2: 2025 Upgrade Cycle - The upgrade cycle in 2025 is expected to be driven by the migration to Windows 11 and a strong AI PC product line, with Lenovo's AI assistant "Xiao Tian" integrated with DeepSeek for enhanced functionalities [2] - AI PC shipments are projected to grow by 93% in FY3/26 and by 52% in FY3/27, increasing their share of total PC shipments to 37% and 57% respectively [2] Group 3: Server Business Growth - The Chinese server market is expected to exceed USD 140 billion by 2029, benefiting Lenovo's orders significantly [3] - Lenovo's AI server revenue grew by 155% year-on-year from April to June 2025, supported by strong IDM partnerships and the Neptune water-cooling system that reduces data center power consumption by approximately 40% [3] - Lenovo holds about 35% of the AI cloud server revenue in China as of early 2025, with expectations to exceed 20% market share by 2028 as large-scale deployments and water-cooling technology become standard [3] - The company updates its earnings forecasts for FY2027 and FY2028 by 10.1% and 17.1% respectively, reflecting higher AI server shipment assumptions [3]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "buy" rating for Lenovo (00992) and raises the target price to HKD 20 from HKD 15, citing benefits from the 2025 upgrade cycle [1] Group 1: Transition to Service-Oriented Company - Lenovo is transitioning from a technology hardware giant to a service-oriented company, leveraging its 25% market share in active PC users and strong reputation in PCs and servers to drive growth in services and solutions [2] - The company is well-positioned in the AI wave due to its extensive production expertise and product innovation [2] Group 2: 2025 Upgrade Cycle - The upgrade cycle in 2025 is expected to be driven by the migration to Windows 11 and a strong AI PC product line, with Lenovo's AI assistant "Xiao Tian" integrated with DeepSeek for enhanced functionalities [2] - AI PC shipments are projected to grow by 93% in FY3/26 and by 52% in FY3/27, increasing their share of total PC shipments to 37% and 57% respectively [2] Group 3: Server Business Growth - The Chinese server market is expected to exceed USD 140 billion by 2029, benefiting Lenovo's orders significantly [3] - Lenovo's AI server revenue grew by 155% year-on-year from April to June 2025, supported by strong IDM partnerships and the Neptune water cooling system that reduces data center power consumption by approximately 40% [3] - Lenovo holds about 35% of the AI cloud server revenue in China as of early 2025, with expectations to exceed 20% market share by 2028 as large-scale deployments and water cooling technology become standard [3] Group 4: Financial Projections - The valuation benchmark for Lenovo has been updated to the fiscal year 2027, with earnings forecasts for FY27 and FY28 raised by 10.1% and 17.1% respectively, reflecting higher assumptions for AI server shipments [3]

Group 1 - UBS expects the Chinese stock market to perform positively in 2026, driven by several favorable factors from 2025, including advancements in innovation, particularly in artificial intelligence, a relaxed policy environment for private enterprises and capital markets, continued fiscal expansion and ample liquidity under loose monetary policy, and potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors [1] - The bank predicts that the performance of the stock market in 2026 will be more driven by earnings growth, with an estimated 10% increase in earnings per share for MSCI China, primarily due to the impact of anti-involution policies and reduced depreciation and amortization expenses [1] - UBS sets a target of 30,000 points for the Hang Seng Index next year, corresponding to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 times, with an expected 8% growth in earnings per share for the index [1] Group 2 - UBS notes that high-dividend stocks have performed well over the past five years, but their attractiveness has decreased, with almost no financial stocks offering a dividend yield above 6% [2] - The bank has shifted to allocate some investments in "outbound" concept stocks, which have shown resilient profits and earnings amid tariff uncertainties [2] - UBS does not have a clear preference between A-shares and H-shares, as both have supportive factors: A-shares benefit from inflows of domestic and foreign capital and earnings improvements from anti-involution policies, while H-shares benefit from AI themes and continued inflows from foreign and southbound funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's report on the outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 indicates a shift from valuation-driven growth in 2025 to earnings improvement as the main driver for market performance in 2026, with a target for the MSCI China Index set at 100 points, representing a potential increase of approximately 14% from the closing level on November 14, 2025 [1][2]. Earnings Improvement as Key to Market Performance - The main upward momentum for the Chinese stock market in 2025 was driven by valuation recovery, but in 2026, the focus will shift to earnings growth, with an expected 10% increase in overall EPS for MSCI China Index constituents [2]. - The "anti-involution" effect driven by policy changes is expected to contribute approximately 3 percentage points to EPS growth in 2026, as regulatory measures promote orderly competition and improve resource allocation [2][3]. - A decline in depreciation and amortization is anticipated to support profit margins, as capital expenditure shifts from expansion to efficiency [3]. - Continuous optimization of cost structures in technology, internet, and advanced manufacturing sectors will enhance earnings sustainability and certainty [4]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - UBS recommends focusing on five key sectors for investment based on earnings certainty, policy support, and global market share enhancement: - **Technology Hardware**: Demand for servers, storage, and optical modules remains strong, with Chinese supply chains gaining competitiveness [5]. - **Internet Sector**: Recovery in advertising, e-commerce, and local services, combined with improved cost structures and cash flow among industry leaders, makes this sector attractive [6]. - **Brokerage Sector**: With capital market reforms and increased trading activity, brokerage firms are expected to see improvements across various business lines [7]. - **Photovoltaic Supply Chain**: Following a supply clearing in 2025, profitability in this sector is expected to improve significantly due to rising global demand for renewable energy [8]. - **"Going Global" Enterprises**: High-quality leading companies in appliances, automotive, consumer electronics, and machinery are expected to enhance their global market share [9]. External Risks and Valuation Advantage - UBS identifies two potential risks for the global market in 2026: potential valuation corrections in AI-related stocks and possible fluctuations in US-China relations affecting market sentiment [10]. - However, the sensitivity of Chinese stocks to these risks is considered limited, with lower correlation to global AI giants and a more favorable valuation position compared to other major markets [11][12]. Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market in 2026 is expected to exhibit structural opportunities rather than rapid unilateral trends, driven by improving fundamentals, stable policies, and deepening capital market reforms [13].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and the A-share market (A 股), focusing on their recent performance and outlook. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Weakness Factors** The recent weakness in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the overseas AI bubble, performance divergence in global growth stocks, tightening global liquidity, and seasonal weakness in southbound capital. These factors collectively exert pressure on the market [1][2][4]. 2. **Sentiment Indicators** Current sentiment indicators suggest that the market has entered a pessimistic zone, with indicators around 40, but have not reached panic levels below 30. This indicates a potential for further adjustments before a recovery [5]. 3. **Future Liquidity Expectations** It is anticipated that liquidity in the U.S. may improve in December, with the potential release of approximately $100 billion from the TGA account and a halt in balance sheet reduction, which could alleviate pressure on reserves [5]. 4. **Sector Performance in Q3 Reports** The Q3 reports for Hong Kong stocks show that around 40% of Hang Seng Index constituent companies have reported earnings, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.4%, exceeding expectations by 3%. However, excluding the financial sector, earnings expectations have been revised down by 0.7% [8]. 5. **Sectoral Earnings Adjustments** Earnings expectations have been revised upwards for sectors such as non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, financial dividends, and new consumption, while downward revisions were noted for real estate, automotive, technology hardware, and internet sectors [8]. 6. **A-Share Market Trends** The A-share market has shown a lackluster performance, with defensive value stocks outperforming growth stocks. The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to declining interest rate expectations and concerns over the overseas AI bubble [9]. 7. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with potential for recovery, such as service consumption, construction, housing services, and home appliances. This approach is suggested due to the lack of strong fundamental support for current market styles [6][7]. 8. **Capacity Cycle Insights** The capacity cycle is expected to stabilize in the first half of next year, with a focus on industries that significantly expanded capacity between 2021 and 2023 but currently have low utilization rates. Industries are categorized based on their proximity to capacity cycle inflection points [13]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior Influences** The current market behavior is driven more by capital flows and future expectations rather than fundamental data, indicating a speculative trading environment [6]. 2. **Potential for Small-cap Stocks** There are signs of relaxation in private equity securities registration, which may support small-cap stocks, suggesting a potential area of focus for investors [9][10]. 3. **Trends in Q3 Financial Reports** The Q3 financial reports indicate a positive trend with revenue and profit growth showing upward inflection points, suggesting a recovery trajectory that may continue into the future [12]. 4. **Investment Style Adaptation** Historical data suggests that October is typically a period where performance factors are less effective, indicating that a "barbell" strategy, which includes both dividend and small-cap stocks, may be more suitable during such times [11].