证券研究报告·公司点评报告·航空装备Ⅱ 2025 年 05 月 06 日 证券分析师 苏立赞 执业证书：S0600521110001 sulz@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 许牧 执业证书：S0600523060002 三角防务（300775） 2024 年报点评：募投项目稳定建设，国产大 飞机有望打开更大空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,271 | 1,590 | 2,299 | 2,622 | 4,003 | | 同比 | 21.05 | (30.02) | 44.63 | 14.07 | 52.64 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 747.01 | 380.05 | 571.53 | 697.12 | 974.29 | | 同比 | 19.58 | (49.12) | 50.38 | 21.97 | 39.76 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.36 | 0.69 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core supplier of advanced carbon fiber for aerospace applications in China, with significant growth potential driven by new procurement cycles and product launches in the aviation sector [2][14]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing industrialization of domestic large aircraft, particularly through its development of carbon fiber prepreg materials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2008, specializes in high-end carbon fiber for aerospace applications, with key products including the ZT7 and ZT9 series [14]. - The ZT7 series was validated in 2012 and began stable production in 2014, while the ZT9 series was developed in 2015 and achieved stable mass production in 2023 [14]. Growth Drivers - A new round of procurement for aviation equipment is anticipated, with the company expected to benefit as a supplier of raw materials [2]. - The ZT9 series has entered the mass supply phase, contributing to revenue growth, with ZT9H being the only domestically engineered third-generation carbon fiber product [3]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity to meet increasing downstream demand, with plans for a fourth phase of production [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of CNY 812 million in 2024, up 45.4% year-over-year, and projected net profits of CNY 356 million, a 23.2% increase [6][4]. - By 2025, the company anticipates net profits of CNY 532 million, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 29X [4]. Market Position - The company is well-positioned to become a key supplier for the domestic large aircraft market, leveraging its advanced technology and established relationships with major manufacturers [3][4]. - The report highlights the increasing use of carbon fiber in military and civilian aircraft, with significant growth expected in the coming years [27][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from long-term demand in the aerospace sector, with new carbon fiber products and production lines achieving verification and acceptance [15]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 29.43 billion, 34.30 billion, and 40.60 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.97 billion, 10.58 billion, and 12.53 billion [15]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.50% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.24% [10]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.55 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.75% [10]. - The company's sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 47.50%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.53 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.17 percentage points [10]. Business Segments - In Q1 2025, the revenue from the fiber expansion segment was 3.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.15% [11]. - The energy new materials segment generated 1.10 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 13.07% [11]. - The precision machinery segment saw a significant increase in revenue, achieving 0.19 billion, a year-on-year increase of 193.70% [11]. Market Structure - In 2024, the aerospace, aviation, and new energy sectors were the largest contributors to the company's revenue, totaling 21.34 billion, accounting for 87.12% of total sales [8]. - The aviation business contributed 11.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.48% [8]. - The new energy-related business saw a revenue increase of 16.66%, contributing 6.99 billion [8]. Product Development - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, including the successful development of T1100-grade carbon fiber and new high-model fibers that have improved wear resistance and reduced production costs [12]. - The GW300 carbon fiber has been approved for use in civil aviation and low-altitude equipment, with revenue from this segment increasing by 495% [12]. Major Contracts - The company has signed significant contracts, including a 20.98 billion contract for carbon fiber and related materials, with 2.95 billion fulfilled in 2024 [13]. - Another contract worth 36.64 billion is in progress, with 6.03 billion fulfilled in 2024 [14].

公司报告 | 季报点评 洪都航空（600316） 证券研究报告 25Q1 收入同比大增 91%；坚定看好公司未来发展 事件：公司 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布了 2025 年一季报，25Q1 实现营收 5.1 亿元，YoY+90.6%；归母净利润-854 万元，24Q1 为-928 万元，亏损收窄。 公司业绩同比增长较多主要是产品交付数量增加。盈利能力方面，1Q25 毛利率为 3.8%，同比增加 0.19pct；净利率为-1.7%，相较 1Q24 的-3.5% 有较大幅度改善。此外，公司作为中航工业集团旗下稀缺"厂所合一、机 弹一体"主机上市平台，未来发展空间较大。综合点评如下： ⚫ Q1 业绩实现开门红；费用管控能力显著提升 费用方面，公司 2025 年一季度期间费用率同比减少 2.62pct 至 4.7%。其中： 1）销售费用率同比增加 0.04pct 至 0.3%，主要是本期销售人员增加；2） 管理费用率同比减少 0.85pct 至 2.7%，主要是本期职工薪酬增加；3）研发 费用率同比减少 2.32pct 至 1.8%；研发费用 0.1 亿元，同比基本持平；4） 财务费用率为-0.1%，上年同期 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Hangfa Technology [6]. Core Viewpoints - Hangfa Technology has established itself as a core supplier in the aerospace engine sector over the past two decades, benefiting from both domestic and international demand [1][14]. - The company has shown a stable growth trajectory in revenue and profit, with a projected significant increase in net profit for 2024 [2][4]. - The demand for aerospace engines is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to capture 21% of the global market share from 2023 to 2042 [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hangfa Technology was founded in 1999 and has developed into a key player in the aerospace engine components market, with a successful IPO in 2001 [1][14]. - The company has undergone significant transformations, including a stock reform in 2006 and a capital increase in 2011 to enhance its manufacturing capabilities [1][14]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased from 2.36 billion yuan in 2018 to 4.52 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 13.8% [2][21]. - The company anticipates a revenue decline to 3.85 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to lower domestic demand, but expects a rebound to 4.46 billion yuan in 2025 [2][5]. - Net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a 43% increase expected in 2024 [2][4]. Market Demand - The commercial aerospace engine market is projected to see a total demand of approximately 649.7 billion USD in China from 2023 to 2042, with the C919 aircraft entering commercial operation [3][46]. - The demand for small to medium thrust turbofan engines is expected to rise due to advancements in drone technology and new fighter jets [3][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.48 billion yuan, 5.45 billion yuan, and 6.85 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PS ratios of 1.73, 1.43, and 1.13 [4][5]. - The target market capitalization is estimated at 11.211 billion yuan, with a target price of 33.96 yuan per share [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Hangfa Technology [6]. Core Insights - Hangfa Technology has established itself as a core supplier in the aerospace engine sector over the past two decades, benefiting from both domestic and international demand [1][14]. - The company has shown a stable growth trajectory in revenue and profit, with a projected significant increase in net profit for 2024 [2][4]. - The demand for aerospace engines is expected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market projected to capture 21% of the global market share from 2023 to 2042 [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hangfa Technology was founded in 1999 and has developed into a key player in the aerospace engine components market, with a successful IPO in 2001 [1][14]. - The company has undergone significant transformations, including a stock reform in 2006 and a capital increase in 2011 to enhance its manufacturing capabilities [1][14]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew from 2.36 billion to 4.52 billion, with a CAGR of 13.8% [2][21]. - In 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 14.8% to 3.85 billion due to lower-than-expected demand in domestic aviation parts [2][21]. - The net profit is projected to increase by 43% in 2024, reflecting effective management strategies [2][4]. Market Demand - The commercial aerospace engine market is anticipated to see a total demand of approximately $649.7 billion in China from 2023 to 2042, with significant growth in domestic aircraft production [3][46]. - The demand for small to medium thrust turbofan engines is expected to rise due to advancements in drone technology and new military aircraft [3][46]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 4.48 billion, 5.45 billion, and 6.85 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.12 billion, indicating a growth rate of 63.33% compared to 2024 [5][4]. Valuation - The report estimates a target price of 33.96 per share based on a 2.5x PS ratio for 2025, leading to a target market capitalization of 11.21 billion [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 414 million yuan, up 23.56% year-on-year [1][9] - The growth is primarily driven by the expansion of the aerospace business and increased sales of specialty functional materials, alongside efforts in product structure adjustment and cost control [9] - The company has made significant progress in product accumulation and technological breakthroughs, successfully developing new types of specialty functional materials for aerospace applications [9] - The board approved a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 5.2 yuan per 10 shares and a capital reserve conversion to increase share capital by 4 shares for every 10 shares held [9] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,139.25 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.17% [1][10] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 413.92 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 23.56% compared to the previous year [1][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.13 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.33 [1][10] - The company maintains a strong cash flow position, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 318 million yuan, a significant increase of 326.63% year-on-year [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.88 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 39.48% to 860.29 million yuan [1][8] - The decline in net profit is attributed to increased R&D expenses, fluctuations in raw material prices, and a 24.91% decrease in revenue from non-aerospace products [8] - The company has made significant progress in technology innovation and market expansion, including partnerships with international aviation giants and a focus on military and civilian aviation engine development [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 48.52 billion yuan in 2025, 54.62 billion yuan in 2026, and 62.72 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 1.35%, 12.57%, and 14.83% [1][9] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 894.14 million yuan and 978.30 million yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 1.15 billion yuan [1][9] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.34 yuan in 2025, 0.37 yuan in 2026, and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [1][9] Market Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - The company has signed long-term agreements with major international players, including Safran Group and Rolls-Royce, amounting to over 1.5 billion yuan, enhancing its position in the global aviation supply chain [8] - The establishment of a new division for general aviation products and the successful launch of several small and medium-sized aircraft engines demonstrate the company's commitment to diversifying its product offerings [8] - The company is actively responding to national military-civilian integration strategies by raising 1 billion yuan for the construction of intelligent production lines for aircraft engines [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.48 CNY [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, achieving 690 million CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 74.3%, and a net profit of -50 million CNY compared to 300 million CNY in the previous year. This decline is attributed to changes in market demand, adjustments in the domestic market, and delays in procurement plans from key customers [1][2]. - The company anticipates a recovery in demand by 2025, aligning with the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and aims for significant growth in operational scale while focusing on "high-quality development" [1][3]. - The gross margin for the company's unmanned systems products improved significantly, reaching 32.0% for the year, an increase of 13.10 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to higher margins in unmanned systems products and services [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 320 million CNY, down 76.5% year-over-year, with a net profit of 30 million CNY, a decrease of 51.7% [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 21% year-over-year, reflecting a commitment to enhancing research and development capabilities [2]. - The company’s contract liabilities surged by 412% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a significant increase in customer prepayments [2]. Future Outlook - The company has outlined a "Quality Improvement and Efficiency Enhancement" action plan for 2025, projecting a substantial increase in transactions with related parties, indicating a potential recovery in downstream demand [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.287 billion CNY, 4.446 billion CNY, and 5.823 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit estimates of 299 million CNY, 398 million CNY, and 489 million CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company experienced short-term performance pressure but is expected to see long-term growth in both military and civil aviation sectors [1][4]. - The company's 2024 revenue was 47.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 860 million yuan, a decrease of 39.5% [1][5]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw the highest quarterly revenue at 21.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.8%, but net profit dropped by 65.7% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 10.1%, down 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.1%, down 1.42 percentage points [2][3]. - The revenue from the main product line, aviation engines and related products, was 44.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, but the gross margin decreased to 9.5% [3][4]. - The company’s subsidiaries showed varied performance, with significant profit decline in the Southern Company, which reported a net profit of only 1.57 million yuan, down 96.5% year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is deeply involved in the development of domestic commercial engines and is expected to benefit from the growth of the domestic large aircraft industry [3][4]. - The company has signed a significant contract for 1,500 general aviation power products, valued at over 10 billion yuan, indicating strong market demand [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 47.69 billion yuan, 53.32 billion yuan, and 58.97 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 690 million yuan, 888 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [4][5].