1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, which may indirectly affect egg prices through inflation expectations. However, China's egg prices are mainly determined by domestic supply - demand relations [8]. - In 2025, the domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. But the supply pressure is expected to ease in the future, and the egg price is expected to stabilize and rebound next year [15]. - The industrial subsidy policies may reduce the breeding cost in the long - term but may also lead to over - capacity expansion, while the environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by significant supply - demand imbalance. In December, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price has fundamental support, but the upside space is restricted [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Situation - The global economic growth slows down. The IMF predicts that the global GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and may further slow down to 3.1% in 2026 [8]. - The Fed has cut interest rates, which may lead to inflation expectations and increase the cost of egg breeding, but the impact on China's egg prices is indirect [8]. - The global egg market scale in 2025 is $121.42 billion with a growth rate of 8.9%. Due to the impact of avian influenza, the egg prices in different countries have diverged, and China's exports may increase [11]. Domestic Situation - China's economic situation is generally stable, but domestic demand is insufficient. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 is 101.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, and the annual growth is expected to be about 5.0% [15]. - The continuous low egg price reflects the imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products in China. Although the impact on CPI is limited, it is regarded as an inflation "wind - vane" [15]. - The domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is affected by substitutes. The egg price is low, and the breeding profit is at a five - year low. However, the supply pressure is expected to ease [15]. Macro Policy - There are industrial support policies such as subsidies for farmers using self - bred improved varieties, and financial support policies like loan interest subsidies and policy - based insurance [18]. - Overall, industrial subsidy policies may lead to over - capacity, while environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Annual Viewpoint Strategy - In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, showing a slight decline. In December, the number of newly - opened laying hens will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level [22][49]. - As of December 12, the average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan per catty. In the short term, the egg price is under pressure, while in the medium term, the supply - demand expectation has improved [22][36]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by supply - demand imbalance. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the egg price has support but limited upside. The strategy is that the main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, and long positions in far - month contracts and call options can be considered in the medium term [24]. Technical Analysis - In the short term, the JD2603 contract shows a downward - oscillating trend, with the 5 - day moving average in a short - selling arrangement. The K - line may indicate a short - term rebound, but the 20 - day moving average is a strong resistance [103]. - In the medium - term on the weekly level, there is a "double - top" prototype, and if the neck - line support at about 3012 points is broken, the price may fall further [103]. - The support level is 2937 - 3000, and the resistance level is 3150 - 3195 [104].

Core Insights - The agricultural sector in Shandong's Jiuan County is experiencing significant growth, particularly in vegetable and poultry farming, contributing to rural revitalization efforts [1][2] Group 1: Vegetable Farming - The Heqiao Vegetable Planting Base in Jiuan County has 812 greenhouses and cultivates over 4,000 acres of crops, primarily tomatoes, yellow melons, and beans, employing over 1,600 workers [1] - The area has a total of over 10,000 acres dedicated to open-field vegetable cultivation, with 228 specialized farming households focusing on crops like spinach and coriander [1] - The local government is promoting industrial development to enhance rural revitalization, encouraging a cluster-based approach to agriculture [1] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The Qianmu Village in Jiuan County has over 100 chicken farming households, accounting for 75% of the village's total farming households, with egg production contributing 90% of the village's agricultural income [2] - The village has a chicken stock of over 1.5 million, producing approximately 180,000 pounds of eggs daily, generating a net profit of 49,000 yuan per day [2] - The average annual income for each poultry farmer is around 500,000 yuan, with the village's per capita income reaching 86,000 yuan [2] Group 3: Mattress Industry - The mattress manufacturing industry in Shijitown's Shawo Village has expanded significantly, with over 40 large-scale mattress processing factories established [2] - The local government is facilitating industry upgrades by encouraging businesses to modernize equipment and develop proprietary brands, enhancing market competitiveness [2] - This industry has created job opportunities for over 300 local residents, contributing to income growth in the community [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The egg supply in 2026: The number of newly opened laying hens from January to May is expected to be average, with no significant pressure. If the Spring Festival market fails to meet expectations, it may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure, but the inventory base in the first half of 2026 remains high [1][2][43]. - The egg demand in 2026: The consumption is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise. The demand will pick up due to festivals, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality is expected to narrow [1][2][43]. - The feed cost in 2026: It is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. The feed cost per catty of eggs is estimated to be between 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [2][41][44]. - The market outlook for 2026: There may be a phased rebound, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic [2][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Egg Market Review - The main theme of the spot price in 2025 was weak, with the price fluctuating in the range of 【2.54, 4.45】 yuan/catty, and the center of gravity moving down year - on - year [6]. - The price fluctuation went through five stages: decline from January to February, rebound and then decline from March to April, weak operation from April to early July, rise and then decline from mid - July to mid - September, and decline and then narrow - range fluctuation from late September to late November [6][7][8]. Fundamental Logic Analysis Supply Side - **In - production laying hen inventory**: In 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and reached a peak. As of November, it was at a high level in the past six years, and although it is currently declining, the base is still large [13][14]. - **Chick replenishment**: In 2025, the replenishment volume decreased year - on - year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back. The newly opened laying hens from January to May 2026 are expected to be at an average level, with no significant pressure [17][18]. - **Elimination of laying hens**: In 2025, the elimination volume increased year - on - year, with high elimination in May - June and October - November. The current chicken age structure is relatively young. If the Spring Festival market is disappointing, it may relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure [20][22][23]. - **Inventory forecast for 2026**: From January to May 2026, the number of newly opened laying hens is not large. If the elimination accelerates during the Spring Festival, the inventory may decline, but the base is still high, and capacity reduction takes time [29][30]. Demand Side - **Consumption seasonality**: In 2025, egg consumption was still driven by festivals, with obvious seasonal patterns. The price fluctuation caused by seasonality has narrowed due to inventory adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Substitute demand analysis**: In the first half of 2026, the high pressure of pig slaughter and the expected decline of vegetable prices may reduce the cost - effectiveness of eggs and weaken the substitute demand. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to pig capacity reduction and extreme weather [37]. Cost Side - The cost of corn in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 2100 - 2350 yuan/ton, with a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - The supply and demand of soybean meal in 2026 are both strong, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price may fall after March [40]. - The feed cost for laying hens in 2026 is estimated to be 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [41]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relieved, but the inventory base is still high, which will limit the rebound height. - The demand is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality will narrow. - The feed cost is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. - There may be a phased rebound in the market, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic.

Core Insights - The conference focused on the theme "Enhancing Production Efficiency and Empowering Brands," aiming to explore high-quality development paths for the egg industry in Sichuan [1] - The event gathered over 300 participants, including industry experts and representatives from the supply chain, to discuss the current state and future challenges of the egg industry [1][5] Industry Developments - The Sichuan Poultry Industry Association's Egg Industry Branch plans to establish two group standards: "Sichuan Quality Fresh Eggs" and "Production Standards for Sichuan Quality Fresh Eggs" to enhance product quality and production norms [3] - The association emphasizes the importance of collaboration among government, industry, academia, and research to drive high-quality development in the egg sector [5] Company Initiatives - Fengji Food Group shared its practical experiences in digital farming, brand operation, and supply chain collaboration, presenting the "Fengji Solution" as a model for the industry [1][16] - The company has invested a total of 2 billion yuan in building a world-class industrial value chain, focusing on advanced equipment, modern breeding bases, and research in key areas like edible eggs and egg products [9] - Fengji's brand "Huang Tian E" has implemented a comprehensive consumer engagement strategy, conducting over 10,000 tasting events across more than 200 cities to enhance brand recognition and consumer trust [10] Market Positioning - The company aims to lead a quality revolution in the egg industry, transitioning from traditional price competition to a model focused on high quality and value [13] - The complete industrial chain established by Fengji ensures traceability and quality control from breeding to table, reinforcing its commitment to safety, taste, and nutrition [13][16] Forum Discussions - A roundtable forum addressed the topic of how Sichuan enterprises can enhance production capacity and quality while pursuing development in a new industrial cluster context [14] - Experts shared diverse insights and experiences, contributing to a comprehensive examination of the egg industry and its future prospects [16]

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on the theme of "Enhancing Production Efficiency and Empowering Brands," aiming to explore high-quality development paths for the egg industry in the context of new challenges and opportunities [1][5][16]. Group 1: Industry Development and Standards - The Sichuan Provincial Livestock Association's Egg Industry Branch will initiate the formulation of two group standards: "Sichuan Quality Fresh Eggs" and "Production Specifications for Sichuan Quality Fresh Eggs" to unify quality indicators and production norms, thereby enhancing the value of "Sichuan Eggs" [3]. - The president of the Sichuan Provincial Livestock Association emphasized the need to leverage national-level advantageous industrial cluster projects to focus on improving production capacity, quality, standards, marketing, and risk control, thereby promoting high-quality industry development [5]. Group 2: Company Insights and Practices - Fengji Food Group shared its practical experience in digitalized farming, brand operation, and industry chain collaboration, providing a valuable reference for the industry [1][16]. - The chairman of Fengji Food Group highlighted the company's strategic investment of 2 billion yuan in collaboration with the government to introduce advanced international equipment and intelligent systems, build modern breeding bases, and enhance the entire industry chain [9]. - Fengji's brand "Fengnike" focuses on high-quality breeding by introducing international breeds and establishing strict biosecurity and testing systems to ensure the health of chicks, laying a solid foundation for high-quality egg production [9]. Group 3: Brand Building and Market Strategy - Fengji Food Group's strategy includes extensive offline tasting events across over 200 cities and targeted online marketing through platforms like Xiaohongshu, effectively linking consumers' perceptions of high-quality eggs with the brand [10]. - The company aims to lead a quality revolution in the egg industry by restructuring its value chain around consumer needs and maintaining effective communication strategies [13]. Group 4: Conference Highlights and Discussions - The roundtable discussion addressed the topic of how Sichuan enterprises can enhance production capacity, improve internal capabilities, and seek development at a new starting point, providing diverse insights for local businesses [14]. - The conference provided a comprehensive examination and forward-looking perspective on the egg industry, emphasizing the importance of brand building, value enhancement, and industry upgrading [16].

本次推介会是宁夏借助高端平台，推动"宁字号"特色农产品走向全国、迈向世界的重要举措。享誉全国的贺兰山东麓葡萄酒、枸杞、牛奶、肉 牛、滩羊、冷凉蔬菜等悉数亮相，而源自闽宁镇、在戈壁滩上成长起来的晓鸣股份，则以其在蛋鸡种源领域的突出成就，展现了宁夏农业"精 尖优"的差异化发展道路。 晓鸣股份代表冯茹娟在发言中介绍，公司作为"中国蛋鸡第一股"，是一家"引繁推"一体化的科技型蛋鸡制种企业，立志成为世界级的中国蛋鸡 种源企业。经过33年发展，公司已构建起从种源到餐桌的完整产业闭环，作为国内种鸡苗市场的主要供应商之一，市场占有率超过25%。这意 味着，中国老百姓餐桌上每四枚鸡蛋中，就有一枚源自晓鸣股份。 转自：新华网 12月4日，在2025企业家博鳌论坛举行期间，宁夏回族自治区农业农村厅联合新华社宁夏分社举办"宁夏精品中国行（海南站）暨绿色优质农产 品推介会"。活动以"宁品出塞·鲜鉴博鳌 共享绿色健康美好生活"为主题，集中展示了宁夏"六特"产业的丰硕成果。 作为宁夏农业产业化龙头企业代表，宁夏晓鸣农牧股份有限公司在会上分享了其以科技创新和绿色发展引领蛋鸡产业升级的经验，企业"让世 界看到戈壁滩的生命力"的品牌主张，成为宁 ...

Group 1 - The core project involves a partnership between Ruichang Agricultural and Rural Bureau and Shanghai Zhaofei Agricultural Development Company for a zero-carbon smart chicken breeding project, with a scale of 5 million chickens [1][2][3] - The total investment for the project is 1 billion yuan, and it is expected to produce approximately 1.5 billion eggs annually, along with 60,000 tons of compound fertilizer, leading to an anticipated annual output value of 776 million yuan [1][2][3] Group 2 - Shanghai Zhaofei aims to establish a leading position in the domestic smart, ecological, and large-scale chicken breeding industry chain, covering all aspects from feed production to chicken breeding and food processing [5] - The company focuses on achieving a modern industrial model characterized by "high yield, high efficiency, green, and sustainable," with a high level of digitalization throughout the entire lifecycle of the chickens, including precise feeding, environmental control, identification, and management [5]

目前蛋鸡养殖行业面临供给充裕、需求乏力，成本竞争加剧的格局，利润对产能的传导是周期性波动的 关键所在。我们基于在产存栏量和养殖利润，辅以价格、社融、利率等指标，将鸡蛋市场基本面周期定 性地划分为景气、压力、出清、回暖四个阶段。 基于周期推演，2025年下半年蛋鸡养殖行业由压力期过渡至出清期，针对市场是否会出现超淘现象、整 体补栏下行拐点何时发生、春节前冷库蛋能否全部出库、资本投机行为是否会改变市场长期趋势、疫病 风险是否具有持续性，以及未来行情如何判断等问题，正信期货调研团队于11月底深入辛集、衡水、聊 城、曲周、馆陶、邯郸等蛋鸡产业一线，携手当地具有代表性的养殖企业、贸易商、种鸡企业及大型屠 宰企业，通过实地考察了解行业发展现状，寻找供需矛盾，为后市行情提供参考。 问题1： 市场是否会出现超淘现象 "超淘"需综合考量存栏总量、鸡龄结构、淘汰鸡价格及养殖户情绪等多重因素，而非简单的提前淘汰行 为。当前河北淘鸡价格为3.2元／斤，湖北为3.6元／斤，尽管养殖户面临亏损，但由于有前4年盈利积累 的资金缓冲，暂未出现无抵抗式集中抛售。 从淘鸡日龄看，当前淘鸡500天以上占比超80%，450~500天淘鸡占比持续增加 ...

河北、山东地区调研 行业整体处于产能缓慢出清阶段，此阶段的持续时间将受淘鸡节奏、补栏意愿及种源改善等多重因素影 响，需持续跟踪动态变化。 目前蛋鸡养殖行业面临供给充裕、需求乏力，成本竞争加剧的格局，利润对产能的传导是周期性波动的 关键所在。我们基于在产存栏量和养殖利润，辅以价格、社融、利率等指标，将鸡蛋市场基本面周期定 性地划分为景气、压力、出清、回暖四个阶段。 基于周期推演，2025年下半年蛋鸡养殖行业由压力期过渡至出清期，针对市场是否会出现超淘现象、整 体补栏下行拐点何时发生、春节前冷库蛋能否全部出库、资本投机行为是否会改变市场长期趋势、疫病 风险是否具有持续性，以及未来行情如何判断等问题，正信期货调研团队于11月底深入辛集、衡水、聊 城、曲周、馆陶、邯郸等蛋鸡产业一线，携手当地具有代表性的养殖企业、贸易商、种鸡企业及大型屠 宰企业，通过实地考察了解行业发展现状，寻找供需矛盾，为后市行情提供参考。 问题1： 市场是否会出现超淘现象 "超淘"需综合考量存栏总量、鸡龄结构、淘汰鸡价格及养殖户情绪等多重因素，而非简单的提前淘汰行 为。当前河北淘鸡价格为3.2元/斤，湖北为3.6元/斤，尽管养殖户面临亏损，但由于 ...

2025 年 11 月 28 日 超量淘汰下的鸡蛋做多策略 | 谢义钦 | | 投资咨询从业资格号： | Z0017082 | xieyiqin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴 | 昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号： | Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 面对持续亏损的状态，养殖户纷纷选择减少补栏同时加速淘汰老鸡的方式出清产能，从淘汰鸡日龄、 周度出栏量等核心指标来看，当前淘汰速度已呈现加快趋势，后期因高存栏导致的供给压力有望得到显著 缓解，基于此，我们推荐突破买入鸡蛋 2602 合约的交易策略。 主要风险： 养殖户淘汰数量重新下降； 鸡蛋需求大幅下降。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 蛋鸡存栏高，养殖效益差 2023-2024 年度蛋鸡养殖行业连续盈利，一方面提升了养殖户的抗风险能力，另一方面也让市场对 2025 年蛋价形成较高预期，共同推动国内蛋鸡存栏量攀升至历史同期高位。根据钢联数据，截至 2025 年 10 月底，全国在产蛋鸡存栏 ...