Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The new tariffs proposed by Trump could generate additional revenue of $600-700 billion per year, requiring the average effective tariff rate (AETR) to rise from 2.2% to 21%[7] - If the tariffs are fully borne by households, the average loss per American household could be $5,400, approximately 5% of median household income[9] - If the tariffs are shared equally between households and corporations, household income could decline by 2.5% and corporate after-tax profits could drop by 15%[9] Group 2: Economic Objectives and Comparisons - The economic objectives of the new tariffs include increasing federal revenue and promoting the return of manufacturing, differing from the 2018 focus on trade balance[10] - By Q4 2024, manufacturing's share of non-residential fixed asset investment is expected to rise to 5.7%, up from 2.7% five years ago[10] Group 3: Economic Growth and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7% due to tariff impacts, while only slightly adjusting the unemployment rate[12] - As of April 7, 2025, S&P 500 EPS forecasts have been revised down by 4.1% for Q1 and 2.5% for Q2, indicating a cautious market outlook[16] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy aims to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with actual wages and long-term inflation expectations being critical factors in policy decisions[21] - As of April 7, 2025, the 5-year inflation swap rate is at 2.3%, indicating stable long-term inflation expectations[23] Group 5: Asset Allocation and Market Trends - High tariffs are expected to create both demand and supply shocks, influencing asset allocation strategies, with potential shifts favoring commodities over financial assets in a stagflation scenario[26] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury term premium is currently at 43 basis points, significantly lower than historical averages, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid tariff-induced inflation risks[29]

截至2 0 2 5年1月底，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的上市公司总市值超3 0万亿美元，远超全球其他 交易所。亚洲市场中上交所、日本证券交易所和印度国家证券交易所市值虽超5万亿美元，但仍 远低于美国交易所。从流动性来看，美股及深交所日均成交额均突破千亿美元，而东南亚部分市 场日均成交额不足1 0亿美元，反映出部分亚洲新兴市场的流动性仍较有限。回顾过去五年全球市 场规模和流动性表现，全球上市公司数量保持稳定，发达市场增长放缓，而中国和印度等新兴市 场成为推动增长的主要力量。美股市场仍然主导全球股票市值和流动性，纳斯达克和纽约证券交 易所的市值持续上升，受益于科技股上涨和流动性回暖。与此同时，中国大陆和印度市场的市值 与交易活跃度稳步提升，特别是深圳证券交易所成交量在2 0 2 4年底大幅攀升，显示出市场活跃度 的增强。相比之下，日本、中国香港、新加坡等成熟市场虽保持稳定，但整体增长动能有限。未 来，全球资本市场格局可能进一步调整，投资者对新兴市场的关注度或将持续上升。 文 ｜ 杨宇泽 顾晟曦 车宇璇 赵文荣 刘方 本报告聚焦全球股票市场的运行特征与结构变化，提供定量跟踪与横向比较，供投资者参考。基于 最新数据，报 ...

给大家摆一个数据的对比。 今天股市非常给力，上证指数一举突破3400点，创年内新高，而收盘后， A股的总市值也首次突破了99万亿 ，创历史新高，离100万亿的 历史性时刻，仅仅咫尺之遥了。 ...... 上面说到A股总市值已经接近100万亿了，而港股的总市值目前大概在40万亿人民币左右，两会的时候，有位香港的代表提到，内地企业在港股的总 市值占比已经超过了80%，那么也就是说，内地企业的港股总市值大概在30万亿出头，而中概那边大概还有1万多亿，保守点算，国内企业的总市 值，大概在130万亿出头。 而目前，国内居民存款大概在150万亿左右，房地产总市值在300-400万亿之间。 中国的股市总市值：居民存款：地产总市值≈0.8：1：2。 美国那边，美股跌了一波之后，目前总市值在50万亿美刀左右，居民存款20万亿美刀不到，房地产总市值也是50万亿美刀左右， 所以美国那边的三 者比值≈1：0.4：1。 可以看到，和美国相比，或者和全球相比，我们的储蓄率都非常高，地产占居民财富的比值也非常高，这里既有经济发展阶段的问题，也和民族的 特性有关。 而股市的总市值，相当于经济体量来说，还是偏低的。 低基数，也是未来发展的空间 ...