破晓·新启——电新行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250709 摘要 2025 年国内乘用车市场预计增速 40%，欧洲动力市场增速约 20%，储 能市场海外持续爆发，总体需求增速近 30%，锂电池板块整体增长格局 良好，宁德时代表现突出。 2025 年国内海上风电项目开工量达 10GW 左右，储备项目超 30GW， 保障高增速；海外市场每年稳定在 4-5GW 左右，预计 2026 年达 10GW 级别，风电国内外市场需求持续增加。 储能行业 2025 年下半年预期良好，新技术进展和政策支持有望解决供 需过剩问题；1-5 月电表数据显示 32GWh，上半年总量或达四五十 GWh，招标增速翻倍，项目建设经济性信心较高。 业绩兑现公司如大金、新强联受关注，困境反转或底部反转预期的天顺、 海力交易表现良好，陆风盈利改善逻辑值得期待，海丰业绩强劲，推荐 权重较高。 2025 年上半年电气设备行业表现平稳，特斯拉交单节奏走弱影响预期， 下半年加速推进剩余直流和交流招标，数字化增量较大，AI 政策配套及 建议交易需求推动增长。 Q&A 2025 年电信行业的中期策略是什么？ 2025 年电信行业的中期策略可以总结为三 ...

洪田股份 20250709 摘要 锂电铜箔行业在经历两年调整后开始复苏，市场需求和价格双双提升， 宏田的设备能帮助客户进行锂电铜箔和电子电路铜箔产能转换，尤其在 表面处理方面具有优势，订单量显著增加，客户遍及国内外。 电子电路铜箔方面，受益于 5G/6G 和 AI 算力需求，高端产品需求扩大。 宏田是国内唯一能提供整场全套定制设备厂商，稳定生产 3.5 微米极薄 铜箔及 9 微米 5G 高频高速电子电路铜箔，并向 3 微米/2 微米及 6 微米 产品升级。 宏田股份在真空镀膜设备领域发展迅速，提供的真空蒸发镀铝设备已达 进口水平，实现进口替代，且在成本和服务上更具优势。通过外延式布 局，在电子信息、半导体、光学等领域实现订单突破。 宏田股份与中科院上海光机所合作，在半导体光学领域取得进展，无掩 模直写光刻机已达国产最高光学等级，P20 设备已签署 demo 销售合同 且运行良好，并储备 P10 设备及 8~10 微米解析方案，计划明年底推出 5 微米整机解决方案。 Q&A 宏田股份在高端电解铜箔设备方面的最新进展和市场表现如何？ 今年以来，宏田股份在高端电解铜箔设备领域取得了显著进展。该业务主要分 为锂电铜箔 ...

Group 1 - The first two data center REITs have completed inquiries and will start subscriptions from July 14 to 15, indicating a growing market for REITs with quality assets [1] - The REITs market is expected to be further activated by the dual drive of "initial issuance + expansion" as relevant systems are optimized and the market matures [1] - High-net-worth individual investors have increasingly participated in ETF initial subscriptions, marking a shift from stock selection to index-based investment tools [1] Group 2 - As of July 9, 197 funds have ended fundraising early this year, with equity funds making up a significant portion, indicating a strong recovery in equity fund issuance [2] - The total issuance of newly established funds reached 5303.47 billion units in the first half of the year, with stock funds accounting for 35.46%, showing a substantial increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - China's monetary policy has implemented moderate easing measures to support macroeconomic stability, achieving multiple goals such as growth stabilization and risk prevention [3] - The introduction of lithium supplement agents in the battery industry is gaining traction, with prices significantly higher than traditional materials, enhancing competitiveness for material companies [3] Group 4 - Global bank sector indices have seen significant increases, with the global index rising by 52% and the Chinese index by 59%, reflecting a revaluation of banks as stable assets [4] - The ongoing interest rate hikes in major economies have contributed to the attractiveness of banks, combining high shareholder returns with growth potential [4] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a surge in equity financing, nearing 3000 billion HKD, with IPOs showing remarkable growth, particularly in the technology and consumer sectors [5][6] - The market is characterized by a dual drive from technology and consumption, with significant activity in emerging consumer sectors and advanced technology fields [6] Group 6 - In 2024, 3667 A-share listed companies reported overseas business income, totaling 9.52 trillion yuan, a 56.58% increase from 2020, with manufacturing companies leading the growth [7] - Key sectors driving this growth include new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, highlighting the importance of industry chain and ecosystem expansion [7] Group 7 - As of July 9, the express delivery business in China has surpassed 1 trillion pieces, reflecting strong economic resilience and the growing scale of the consumer market [8] - The increase in express delivery volume is attributed to the rising e-commerce penetration and the expanding consumer market [8] Group 8 - Regulatory bodies have intensified oversight of delisted companies, with 19 companies receiving penalties this year, indicating a stricter regulatory environment [9]

2024年业绩回暖之后，天铁科技（300587）(300587.SZ)提出了更高的目标，但又遭遇子公司停产。 昌吉利持续亏损负债率89.34% 天铁科技的减振(震)业务主要产品为橡胶制品，此外，公司通过子公司昌吉利和孙公司安徽天铁主要从 事锂化物产品的研发、生产与销售。 7月9日晚间，天铁科技发布公告称，根据全资子公司昌吉利近日与供应商的沟通，其维修工作已基本完 成，目前正在进行设备调试，预计于2025年7月20日前可开始向昌吉利供应蒸汽，昌吉利预计2025年7月 20日前可复工。 7月9日晚间，天铁科技公告显示，公司全资子公司昌吉利预计2025年7月20日前可复工。 6月7日，因昌吉利宜兴工厂生产所用蒸汽供应商的变电所遭雷电冲击，引发供应商跳停事故，导致其热 电核心设备受损，短期内无法向昌吉利供应蒸汽。 彼时，天铁科技预计修复工作需耗时约一个月。从最新公告来看，昌吉利此次复工时间比预期延缓了10 天左右。 值得注意的是，2025年4月，天铁科技发布的2025年限制性股票激励计划(草案)显示，公司2025年考核 目标为营业收入不低于23亿元或净利润不低于5.8亿元。 由此，2025年，天铁科技力争营业收入增长 ...

中金研究 6 月 CPI 同比由负转正，主要受工业消费品价格回升带动，除国际原油和贵金属价格上涨外，反 " 内卷 " 打压 " 价格战 " 、促消费政策提振，汽车、家电价 格同比改善， PPI 同比中汽车制造、光伏、锂电池价格同比均改善。但 PPI 同比跌幅进一步走扩、环比连续第 7 个月负增，供过于求、需求不足仍是主要 矛盾。向前看，反 " 内卷式 " 竞争拉开序幕，提振消费和纠正无序同质竞争在供需两端同时发力，有望助益物价回升。 点击小程序查看报告原文 1. 工业消费品价格回升助力CPI同比转正 6月CPI同比结束连续四个月的负增，由上月的-0.1%转为0.1%，主要受工业消费品价格的拉动，能源与核心商品同比均改善，后者带动核心CPI同比升至 14个月新高的0.7%（5月为0.6%）。 ► 肉价弱，果蔬强，食品通胀微升。 CPI食品价格同比下降-0.3%，比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，受生猪供给持续释放和去产能推进，猪肉价格同比由 上月的上涨3.1%转为下降8.5%，边际拖累CPI同比0.14ppt；因部分地区高温天气和供应地调整，应季蔬菜价格同比较上月-8.3%大幅收窄至-0.4%，鲜果价 格同比亦由 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period has seen a surge in Chinese companies going global, transitioning from "manufacturing exports" to "intelligent manufacturing exports" and from "single operations" to "industry chain collaboration" [1][2] - A total of 3,667 A-share listed companies disclosed overseas business income in 2024, accounting for 68% of A-share companies, with total overseas income reaching 9.52 trillion yuan, a 56.58% increase from 2020 [2] - Manufacturing companies have shown remarkable performance, with overseas income reaching 6.39 trillion yuan in 2024, a 75.42% increase from 2020 [2] Industry Performance - The new growth drivers in foreign trade include new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, with companies like Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile seeing over 600% growth in overseas income compared to 2020 [3] - CATL's overseas income reached 110.34 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 14 times since 2020, with significant investments in Indonesia [3] - The engineering machinery sector has seen overseas income share rise from 11.38% in 2020 to 47.48% in 2024, with major companies like SANY Heavy Industry and Zoomlion contributing over half of their revenue from overseas [3] Strategic Trends - The trend of "industrial chain going overseas" and "ecosystem going overseas" has become prominent, with leading companies enhancing efficiency by leveraging their chain advantages [4] - ASEAN has become China's largest export market, with significant investments in production capacity in Southeast Asia, such as Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle base in Thailand [4] - Latin America is emerging as a new growth area, with companies like BYD and Linglong Tire making substantial investments in Brazil [5] Cross-Border M&A Activity - Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have seen a resurgence, with 216 disclosed cases in 2024, a 32.52% increase year-on-year, marking a five-year high [6] - M&A activities are categorized into three types: acquiring overseas brands, core technology acquisition, and channel acquisition, with significant examples in advanced manufacturing and biomedicine [6] Capital Market Developments - In 2025, leading companies in hard technology are accelerating their overseas strategies, with over 50 A-share companies announcing plans to list in Hong Kong [7] - Notable companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine have successfully listed in Hong Kong, with CATL raising 35.3 billion HKD, the largest IPO globally for the year [7] Future Outlook - Industry experts express optimism about the future of Chinese companies going global, highlighting opportunities in green exports, capacity expansion, and infrastructure projects [10] - The focus on protecting national security and intellectual property while targeting high-end markets is emphasized for companies in high-tech sectors [10]

Group 1 - The upcoming disclosure of mid-year reports by listed companies is expected to become a mainstream market focus, with Zhongyan Chemical set to report on July 15 [1] - Companies with significantly better-than-expected performance, such as Huayin Power with a projected increase of over 40 times in earnings, have seen substantial stock price increases, with a 76.72% rise in July [1] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with sustained earnings growth during the mid-year report season, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence, biomedicine, machinery, and Huawei's supply chain [1] Group 2 - Investors should pay attention to companies with large absolute net profit increases, while also considering the sustainability of future earnings growth and valuation levels [2] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend in the second half of the year, with a focus on blue-chip stocks in banking, non-bank financials, and high-dividend sectors [2] - Investment strategies should consider three main lines: sectors with mid-year report highlights like gold and technology hardware, high-growth opportunities less affected by economic cycles such as the AI industry, and industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a mild recovery environment [2]

正与同行"互掐"的"电解液一哥"，突然撤回了一起始于2023年的诉讼。 根据天赐材料公告所述，天赐材料自2005年开始进行六氟磷酸锂的研究工作，在结合自身研发及引进相 关技术的基础上，形成了以六氟磷酸锂生产配方等为核心的技术秘密。 天赐材料主营电解液和磷酸铁锂，亦布局了包括六氟磷酸锂在内的一体化产能。自2015年切入ATL(新 能源科技集团)及宁德时代（300750）供应链后，天赐材料于2017年成为国内第一大电解液厂商，被业 内称为"电解液一哥"。 金石资源原是萤石矿开采企业，2021年10月，公司宣布在浙江省江山开发区投资年产2.5万吨新能源含 氟锂电材料及配套8万吨/年萤石项目，正式跨界进入锂电材料行业。 值得注意的是，上述两方的纠纷，与锂电材料六氟磷酸锂生产配方及工艺的泄密有关。其中，六氟磷酸 锂是电解液产出的关键原材料。 7月9日晚间，天赐材料（002709）(SZ002709，股价18.43元，市值352.8亿元)公告披露，公司与被告陈 春财、金石资源（603505）(SH603505，股价21.36元，市值128.5亿元)及其全资子公司江山金石新材料 科技有限公司(以下简称江山金石)侵害技术秘密 ...

近期，"反内卷"政策密集出台，各行业纷纷发声响应，一度成为股票与商品市场的交易热 点。机构"反内卷"相关研报也迅速出炉并刷屏！ 华创 证券 策略团队从国企占比、行业集中度、价格弹性、税收、就业5个视角筛选"反内 卷"潜在受益行业。 较为受益的行业包括：煤炭开采、焦炭、普钢、 能源金属 、 玻璃玻纤 、冶钢原料、 贵金属 、 白酒 、酒店餐饮。 免责声明 各大机构普遍关注三个方向：如何看待本轮"反内卷"？"反内卷"对资本市场影响几何？哪些 行业有望受益？ 天风证券 表示，"反内卷"行情如果发展顺利，可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下的预期 （幅度可能较小），第二段定价资源品价格上涨，第三段定价资源品高价横住的时间。 中信证券 认为，本轮"反内卷"与2015年至2016年的供给侧改革主要存在三重差异：一是行 业覆盖面更广；二是上游企业经营情况相对更好，导致企业自发参与减产意愿相对偏弱；三 是本轮供需失衡的部分新兴行业民企占比更高、吸纳的就业人数更多。 华安证券 认为，本轮"反内卷"行情是在相关周期品板块前期滞涨背景下（其余方向均有过轮 动），同时恰逢中央财经委提及治理低价无序竞争催化下的主题行情。这是个短期的主题 ...

Core Insights - The European automotive market is experiencing a significant shift towards hybrid vehicles, with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) leading the growth, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for the industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - In May 2025, the market share of hybrid vehicles (including HEVs and PHEVs) reached 43.3%, surpassing traditional fuel vehicles for the first time [1] - PHEV sales saw a robust year-on-year growth of 46.9%, nearly double the growth rate of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) at 25% [1] - The market share of pure electric vehicles is slowly increasing to around 15%, indicating a preference for hybrid solutions among European consumers [1] Group 2: Chinese Automakers' Performance - Chinese automotive brands achieved total sales exceeding 60,000 units in Europe in May 2025, marking an 85% year-on-year increase and a market share rise to 5.4%-5.9% from 2.9% [2][3] - BYD's registrations in the EU and UK surged by 397% in May, leveraging a strategy that combines pure electric and hybrid models to navigate impending tariffs on pure electric vehicles [2] - The export volume of Chinese PHEVs grew by 240% year-on-year in May 2025, significantly outpacing pure electric vehicle exports [3] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Leading Chinese automakers are shifting focus from product exports to local production and ecosystem development in Europe [4] - BYD announced the establishment of its European headquarters in Hungary, with plans for manufacturing facilities to be operational by 2026-2027 [4] - A collaborative ecosystem for lithium battery production is emerging in Hungary, with major players like CATL and others establishing operations [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - European automakers are responding to the rise of hybrids by launching new generations of hybrid models, intensifying competition in the hybrid technology market [3] - Local manufacturers are introducing affordable pure electric models, with new entries priced between €15,000 and €30,000, which could stimulate consumer demand [6] - The market is transitioning into a post-subsidy era, presenting challenges in balancing production costs, supply chain resilience, and stringent carbon emission regulations [6]