Core Viewpoint - Liken Resources (02245) reported significant growth in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - Revenue reached approximately 18.1466 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.8% [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company was around 1.426 billion HKD, up 143.0% compared to the previous year [1] - Earnings per share stood at 0.92 HKD [1] Production and Operational Highlights - The growth in revenue and profit was primarily due to a substantial increase in the production of hydrometallurgical products such as nickel-cobalt hydroxide and pyrometallurgical products like nickel iron [1] - The increase in production was attributed to the full operational capacity of the ONC project and the production release from the KPS project [1] - The company optimized its product structure and implemented refined cost control management, along with technological improvements to enhance production processes and profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in both revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production from key projects and improved operational efficiency [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached approximately 18.1466 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.8% [1] - Profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 1.426 billion, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 143.0% [1] - Earnings per share stood at 0.92 yuan [1] Operational Highlights - The growth in revenue and profit was primarily due to a significant increase in the production of hydrometallurgical products such as nickel-cobalt hydroxide and pyrometallurgical products like nickel iron [1] - The ONC project achieved full production capacity, and the KPS project contributed to the release of production capacity [1] - The company optimized its product structure and implemented refined cost control management, along with technological improvements to enhance production processes, further boosting profitability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for nickel is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel industry has experienced different development stages driven by demand and supply. In the past, stainless - steel demand and later new - energy vehicle demand have respectively boosted nickel prices, while subsequent technological breakthroughs and capacity expansions have led to an oversupply situation. The industry cycle that started in 2017 may turn around in 2028, and new demand from solid - state batteries is expected to reverse the current oversupply pattern [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Nickel Iron & Stainless Steel: A Close - knit Relationship 3.1.1 Before 2007: Stainless - steel demand drives nickel price up - From 1997 - 2007, global stainless - steel nickel consumption grew at a CAGR of about 3.3%, accounting for over 60% of nickel end - consumption. After China joined the WTO in 2001, its stainless - steel production increased rapidly, with a CAGR of 44.9% from 2000 - 2005 and 30% from 2005 - 2010. The shortage of supply led to a significant increase in nickel price and a pressing need for stainless - steel cost reduction. During this period, there were changes in the ore end and raw materials, with laterite nickel ore replacing sulfide nickel ore, and the smelting process evolving from one - step to two - step and three - step methods. Chinese enterprises also started using laterite nickel ore to smelt NPI, which became the main raw material for stainless - steel production, reducing costs [18][19][24] 3.1.2 2007 - 2015: Nickel capacity expands rapidly, and weakening stainless - steel demand causes nickel price to decline - High nickel prices attracted many domestic enterprises to produce NPI using laterite nickel ore. Since 2010, domestic nickel ore imports have increased significantly. By 2011, NPI accounted for over 50% of the primary nickel raw materials for stainless - steel production in China. However, stainless - steel demand weakened due to the global economic downturn, leading to a large accumulation of LME nickel inventory and a decline in nickel price [34][35] 3.1.3 RKEF and Oxygen - Enriched Side - Blowing Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - RKEF is the mainstream process for nickel - iron preparation, with advantages such as a short process flow, high production efficiency, and high nickel recovery rate, but it has limitations in terms of cobalt recovery and energy consumption. The oxygen - enriched side - blowing process (OESBF) is more advanced, with better raw - material applicability and lower energy consumption, and it can also recover cobalt. Cost calculations show that the cost of RKEF - produced nickel - iron is about 1333 dollars per physical ton, and the cost of OESBF - produced high - grade nickel matte is about 11,800 dollars per metal ton [38][40][50] 3.2 Intermediate Products: Technological Breakthroughs, Raw - Material Structure Shuffle 3.2.1 2018 - 2022: New - energy demand opens a second growth curve, and the smelting end breaks the binary supply - demand imbalance - With the rapid development of new - energy vehicles, the demand for ternary batteries increased, driving up the demand for nickel. The production of ternary precursors in China increased nearly four - fold from 2020 to 2022. However, the traditional "laterite nickel ore - stainless steel" and "sulfide nickel ore - nickel salt/pure nickel" binary supply - demand pattern could not meet the demand for nickel sulfate, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. Nickel beans/nickel powder were initially popular for producing nickel sulfate due to their short extraction cycle [56][57][62] 3.2.2 2023 - present: Supply - side expansion leads to an industry - wide oversupply - As the profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel decreased, the HPAL process for laterite nickel ore and the production of nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte became mainstream. Currently, there is over 400,000 metal tons of MHP wet - process production capacity in Indonesia. The electric - deposition process has matured, leading to a rapid increase in pure - nickel production. The large - scale production of deliverable products has made it difficult to repeat the "short - squeeze" market, but the oversupply situation will continue until demand improves [70][80][84] 3.2.3 HPAL Process Discussion and Cost Calculation - HPAL has a high cobalt - recovery rate, which can significantly offset costs. The cost of HPAL - produced MHP is relatively low. After deducting the cobalt cost, the full cost of MHP is about 7732 dollars per metal ton. The investment cost of wet - process projects is expected to decrease with technological maturity, and the reduction of production cost depends on the increase in cobalt price [88][92][95] 3.3 Current Situation and Outlook of Smelting - End Capacity 3.3.1 Nickel Iron: FENI supply stabilizes after clearance, and NPI capacity reaches a phased peak - After the nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte conversion process was established and the electric - deposition nickel capacity expanded, nickel iron became a raw material for electric - deposition nickel. However, the price change of nickel iron is difficult to be smoothly transmitted to the market. FENI has experienced production cuts due to high costs, and its supply is expected to remain stable [96][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is reshaping global trade dynamics into a more pronounced zero-sum game, with significant implications for ASEAN countries and the broader multilateral trade system [1][8]. Group 1: Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The U.S. has established a framework for "reciprocal tariffs" that allows for unilateral adjustments, replacing the multilateral agreements advocated by the WTO, thus granting the White House substantial discretionary power [2]. - ASEAN countries face challenges in forming a unified response due to their diverse political and economic structures, leading to individual negotiations with the U.S. [1][2]. - The new tariff structure has resulted in varying tax rates for ASEAN countries, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff, which could significantly impact its export sectors and employment [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Political Repercussions - The tariffs are not merely a tax adjustment but a strategic tool for the U.S. to compel concessions from other nations, creating a dynamic balance rather than mutual reductions in trade barriers [2][8]. - The tariffs have led to increased tensions in the region, as seen in the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which was influenced by U.S. trade policies [5]. - The RCEP agreement is seen as a potential counterbalance to U.S. tariffs, with expectations of increased intra-regional trade and reduced tariffs over time, although immediate benefits may be limited due to varying levels of development among ASEAN members [6][7]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. may continue to rely on tariffs as a tool for trade negotiations, creating a prolonged period of uncertainty for global trade and investment [8]. - ASEAN countries must enhance internal coordination and develop resilient supply chains to mitigate the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs and maintain competitiveness in the global market [8].

Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Nickel production and waste incineration power generation Key Points and Arguments Nickel Production - Weiming Environmental's first high ice nickel production line is expected to be operational by the end of the year, with a 70% stake in the project, projected to contribute approximately 400 million RMB in net profit attributable to the parent company, significantly enhancing 2026 performance [2][3] - Current high ice nickel prices are around $13,000 per ton, with estimated production costs controlled between $11,000 and $12,000 per ton [2][3] - The company has laid out plans for three nickel smelting projects, with the first project expected to reach full production by 2025, contributing to a total capacity of 40,000 tons [3] - The company also holds a 20% stake in a 20,000-ton wet nickel smelting project [3] Waste Incineration Power Generation - Total waste incineration power generation capacity has reached approximately 40,000 tons, ranking within the top ten in the industry, generating annual operational revenue of 1.7 to 2 billion RMB and over 3 billion RMB in cash flow [2][6] - The business model relies on waste treatment fees (30%) and electricity sales (70%) [6] - The industry has entered a stable operational phase, with capacity exceeding the 14th Five-Year Plan target, and new capacity additions are not expected to increase further [10] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net cash ratio typically hovers around 1.3 times, indicating strong operational cash flow relative to net profit [8] - A significant national subsidy payment is expected to return in June to July 2025, indicating an acceleration in subsidy disbursement [9] - For 2025, the environmental business is projected to grow by about 10%, with total profits expected to reach around 3 billion RMB, corresponding to a market capitalization of over 30 billion RMB, resulting in a PE ratio of less than 11 [25] Future Growth and Expansion - Future growth points include the high ice nickel smelting industry and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, where modern waste incineration facilities are lacking [17][18] - The company is exploring partnerships to apply waste incineration power generation to high-energy-consuming enterprises, enhancing revenue through green electricity supply policies [20] - The Shanghai Lingyun Volunteer Center project is expected to influence the industry towards a rental model for computing power [21] Challenges and Opportunities - The nickel industry is expected to see upward price trends due to low-cost production, rapid downstream demand growth, and concentrated supply dynamics [7] - The company faces challenges in overseas expansion, including higher investment costs (20%-30% more than domestic) but has opportunities for higher revenue in markets like Indonesia [19] Key Milestones - Key milestones include the operational launch of the new high ice nickel production line by the end of the year and decisions based on nickel cost data expected in the third or fourth quarter [27] Additional Important Information - The company has a full industrial chain equipment manufacturing capability, which reduces capital expenditure and enhances competitiveness [4][16] - The waste incineration power generation business is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, keeping the dividend yield at approximately 3% [27]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Lijin Resource Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Lijin Resource") has announced a positive profit forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, is expected to be between RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 104.4% to 155.5% [1]. - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately RMB 587 million [1]. Group 2: Operational Highlights - The substantial growth in net profit is primarily attributed to the production release from the Wet ONC project and the Fire KPS project [1]. - The company has optimized its product structure, implemented refined cost control management, and made technological improvements to enhance profitability [1]. Group 3: Project Developments - Lijin Resource is jointly investing with Indonesian partners in the construction of wet and fire nickel ore smelting projects on Obi Island, Indonesia, utilizing leading industry technologies such as high-pressure acid leaching and RKEF smelting processes, with a combined annual design capacity of 400,000 tons of nickel metal [1]. - The HPAL project has a total design capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal and has achieved full production operation [1]. - The RKEF project has a total design capacity of 280,000 tons of nickel metal, with the company's equity project HJF achieving full production and an annual design capacity of 95,000 tons, while the controlling project KPS has partially commenced production with an annual design capacity of 185,000 tons, with full construction expected to be completed by 2026 [1]. Group 4: Industry Context - Despite the downward fluctuation in nickel prices in the first half of 2025, Lijin Resource has demonstrated strong performance, indicating its resilience during cyclical downturns [2]. - Companies like Lijin Resource, which can achieve steady growth during industry downturns, are likely to outperform the industry in subsequent performance [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices first declined and then rose, with significant macro - impacts. Spot transactions were average, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices slightly declined, and freight rates may continue to rise due to insufficient shipping capacity. Ferronickel prices were weak, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased. Stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continued to flow out, and demand remained poor as July and August are traditional off - seasons for consumption. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, which is beneficial for nickel demand, but attention should be paid to the supply - side reform of new energy vehicles. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract is expected to operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were affected by the macro - environment, with spot transactions being average. In the industrial chain, ore prices dropped slightly, freight rates might rise, ferronickel prices were weak, and stainless steel demand was poor. New energy vehicle data was positive for nickel demand, but the long - term surplus remained [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore: The price of some grades of laterite nickel ore decreased. For example, the price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $52 to $51, a decrease of 1.92% [11]. - Electrolytic nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price all decreased. Shanghai electrolytic nickel dropped from 124,620 yuan to 123,260 yuan, a decrease of 1.09% [12]. - Ferronickel: Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 3,600 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. High - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 920 yuan/nickel point to 915 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.54% [11]. - Stainless steel: The price of 304 stainless steel increased from 13,425 yuan/ton to 13,487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The price of some grades of nickel ore decreased by $1 per wet ton compared with last week, while the freight rate increased by $2 per wet ton [15]. - Inventory: On July 10, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.9649 million wet tons, an increase of 246,500 wet tons or 2.83% from the previous period [15]. - Import: In May 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.9272 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0131 million tons or 34.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 681,700 tons or 14.79% [15]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices first declined and then rose, with average transactions. The overall demand was hard to improve, and the marginal cost also decreased to some extent [20][23]. - Production: In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37% [27]. - Import and Export: In May 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,535.551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons or 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,631 tons or 121.85% [31]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: Ferronickel prices continued to decline. Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and high - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 5 yuan/nickel [41][43]. - Production: In June 2025, China's ferronickel actual production in metal terms was 23,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [45]. - Import: In May 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 848,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 3.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 197,000 tons or 30.2% [48]. - Inventory: In June, the negotiable inventory of ferronickel was 233,100 physical tons, equivalent to 21,000 nickel tons [51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel increased. The four - location average price increased by 62.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [56][57]. - Production: In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the production of the 300 - series decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 125,100 tons and exports were 436,200 tons [64]. - Inventory: On July 11, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,230 tons, in Foshan was 359,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons [67]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In May 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9% respectively. From January to May 2025, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% respectively [73]. - Power Batteries: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The position has not increased significantly. Although the MACD shows a red bar, the upward trend has slowed down. Technically, the pressure of the upper golden section line is still large, and there is minor support such as the 20 - day moving average below. A range - bound view is maintained [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of different links on nickel prices varies. Nickel ore, ferronickel, and refined nickel are neutral - bearish. Stainless steel is neutral, and new energy is neutral - bullish [83]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [85][86].

Group 1: Report Title and Overall Outlook - Nickel is expected to oscillate due to the game between macro and fundamental factors [1] - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate due to the game between reality and macro - expectations [2] Group 2: Fundamental Data Tracking Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 121,140, with changes of 2,000 (T - 1), - 650 (T - 5), 310 (T - 10), - 250 (T - 22), and 2,190 (T - 66) [2] - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel is 12,865, with changes of 95 (T - 1), 155 (T - 5), 230 (T - 10), 405 (T - 22), and 210 (T - 66) [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is 102,155, with changes of - 8,908 (T - 1), 23,166 (T - 5), - 48,400 (T - 10), - 5,365 (T - 22), and - 157,881 (T - 66) [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of stainless steel is 101,032, with changes of 2,396 (T - 1), 15,621 (T - 5), - 149,945 (T - 10), - 113,621 (T - 22), and - 51,265 (T - 66) [2] Industry Chain - Related Data - The price of 1 imported nickel is 119,900, with changes of 400 (T - 1), - 1,950 (T - 5), - 600 (T - 10), - 1,700 (T - 22), and 625 (T - 66) [2] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 905, with changes of 0 (T - 1), - 4 (T - 5), - 9 (T - 10), - 41 (T - 22), and - 108 (T - 66) [2] - The battery - grade nickel sulfate price is 27,420, with changes of 0 (T - 1), 20 (T - 5), 20 (T - 10), - 395 (T - 22), and - 790 (T - 66) [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff fight and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [3] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [4][5] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, affecting 11 - 13 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output, and it cut production by 40 - 50% in May [5] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [5] - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed违法 companies and audit the whole park [5] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6] - The 2025 production target approved by the Indonesian government for nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [7]