Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 5, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film entering the end of the peak season and orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and the trading atmosphere of plastics is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%. The position increased by 7056 lots to 393540 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price range from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8390 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6880 - 7580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 5, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: The Friday's petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fluctuated around 63 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 720 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

震荡下行，月内探底回升 范阿骄 Tel：025-68908477 Email:fanejiao@ftol.com.cn 从业资格号: F3054801 投资咨询证号：Z0016954 摘要 PVC 月报 金融研究院 研究报告 –PVC 月报 2025 年 12 月 金融研究院 11 月 PVC 主力合约（V2601）价格呈"先抑 后稳"走势，月内最低触及 4,456 元/吨。 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需 求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续弱势震荡格局， 价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏 空，资金呈多空博弈后净减仓态势。 一、行情回顾 （1）PVC 价格先抑后稳，月末企稳回升 2025 年 11 月，PVC 期货市场在供应高位、需求疲软与库存高企的压制下延续 弱势震荡格局，价格重心下移，期现基差维持贴水，市场情绪偏空，资金呈多空 博弈后净减仓态势。 11 月 PVC 价格走势震荡下行，月内探底回升。11 月 PVC 期货主力合约（V2601） 整体呈现"前期探底、月末企稳"的震荡下行后回升态势。全月价格重心较 10 月下移，截至 11 月 28 日，V2601 合约收盘价 454 ...

Core Viewpoint - The plastic futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 1% and reaching a low of 6673.00 yuan, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main plastic futures contract reported a price of 6698.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.25% [1]. - The market is characterized by weak fluctuations, with institutions predicting continued bearish trends in the near term [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent maintenance at Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in PE production, while new capacity from Yulong's low-density facility is expected to increase supply pressure [2]. - The operating rates for agricultural and packaging films have shown a marginal decline, contributing to a weaker demand outlook [2]. - The supply-demand balance remains fragile, with geopolitical tensions continuing to pose risks to supply chains, despite some stability in international oil prices [2]. Group 3: Cost and Pricing Factors - The cost side remains under pressure, with Russian oil production unaffected by recent sanctions, while the potential for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine appears limited [2]. - New production capacities from ExxonMobil and PetroChina have been introduced, further complicating the supply landscape [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere is subdued, with a cautious approach from traders and a focus on essential purchases, leading to price reductions in the market [2].

Core Insights - The plastic production in Qinghai Province for September 2025 reached 80,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, but the growth rate has slowed down by 16.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, the total plastic production was 650,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, which is a decrease of 10.5 percentage points from the previous year [1] Monthly Production Analysis - In September 2025, the plastic production accounted for 0.6% of the national total production of 12,665,469.6 tons [1] - The growth rate in September 2025 was 0.6 percentage points lower than the national average [1] Cumulative Production Analysis - From January to September 2025, Qinghai's plastic production also represented 0.6% of the national total of 10,970,311.3 tons [1] - The cumulative growth rate was 6.9 percentage points lower than the national average during the same period [1]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库存表现中性。沪铝站稳22000元打开上方空间，震荡偏强趋势或有一定延续。 (铸造铝合金) 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差扩大至千元以上，关 注年末可能存在收窄空间。 (氧化铝) (原油) 油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整 ...

Group 1 - The company has developed materials that can be used in mobile phone casings and frames, but does not involve core technologies related to AI mobile phone components [2] - The company focuses on the field of modified plastics, specializing in the research, production, and sales of modified plastics [2] - The main products of the company include various types of modified general plastics, modified engineering plastics, and modified special engineering plastics [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. The supply side has an increasing PVC operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side is affected by the ongoing adjustment of the real estate industry, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is basically stable. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about China's PVC exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes have generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton, and last week's export orders have declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still near the lowest level in recent years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The meeting on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition has given some boost to bulk commodities, but factors such as the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the traditional off - season in December will lead to a weak and volatile PVC market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,483 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,540 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,500 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.90% and a decrease in positions of 31,263 to 990,081 hands [2]. Basis - On December 4th, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,435 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,500 yuan per ton. The current basis is - 65 yuan per ton, strengthening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: The operating rates of some devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year, Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year, and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year, have been put into production or are operating at low loads [4]. - **Demand Side**: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. The sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. As of the week of November 30th, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The plastics supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 4th, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 restarted, and the plastics operating rate rose to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 28th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% week - on - week. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. With new production capacity put into operation, it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in position, oscillated, and declined. The lowest price was 6,753 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,776 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.53%. The position volume decreased by 16,226 lots to 386,484 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,070 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,520 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,850 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 4th, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 restarted, and the plastics operating rate rose to around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% week - on - week. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 685,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around $63/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $740/ton week - on - week [4]

Core Insights - The primary form of plastic production in Fujian Province reached 723,000 tons in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, although this growth rate has slowed by 17.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, the total production of primary form plastics was 5.429 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, which is a decrease of 11.3 percentage points from the previous year [1] Group 1: August 2025 Production Data - The primary form of plastic production in Fujian Province was 723,000 tons [1] - Year-on-year growth for August 2025 was 9.1% [1] - The growth rate for August 2025 was 17.8 percentage points lower than the same month last year and 3.7 percentage points lower than the national average [1] Group 2: January to August 2025 Production Data - The cumulative production of primary form plastics from January to August 2025 was 5.429 million tons [1] - This period saw a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [1] - The growth rate for this period was 11.3 percentage points lower than the previous year, but 3.0 percentage points higher than the national average [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term cost support, limited rebound space under weak supply-demand pattern, likely to fluctuate in the bottom range [4] - Inter-period: LL01 - 05 sell high and buy low; PP01 - 05 sell high and buy low [4] - Inter-variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - PE faces supply pressure due to low maintenance, new capacity release, and entering the demand off-season, resulting in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited short-term rebound space [2] - PP has a short-term weak supply-demand situation, with supply pressure from existing devices and insufficient demand follow - up. The expected rebound height of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to cost disturbances [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures display plastic and polypropylene main contracts and LL East China basis [11][8] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH method), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented [16][19][25] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China price differences are shown [6][29][32] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL and PP import and export profits, as well as price differences between overseas regions and China, are provided [37][41][57] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film operating rates, PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding operating rates, and PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP production gross margins are presented [58][63][70] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE and PP inventory in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [72][77][81]