12月21日，MiniMax首次刊发其聆讯后资料集版本的招股书资料，有望刷新记录，成为从成立到IPO 历时最短的AI公司。截至2025年9月30日，MiniMax已有超过200个国家及地区的逾2.12亿名个人用户以及超过100个国家的13万企业客户。其2025年前9个月营收同比增长超过170%，海外市场收入贡献占比超70%。MiniMax获得米哈游、阿里、腾讯、小红书、高瓴、IDG、红杉、经纬、明势、云启等多家顶尖机构的投资和支持。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):彭博：知情人士透露，获阿里巴巴集团、腾讯控股等公司投资的上海初创企业MiniMax计划最早于明年1月上市。他们称，此次IPO可能筹集数亿美元资金。知情人士还表示，同样获得阿里巴巴、腾讯等科技巨头投资的智谱AI也计划于同期上市。 https://t.co/vhC5IbgkbV ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong International AI Art Festival represents a significant fusion of technology and culture, showcasing the potential of AI in redefining artistic expression and cultural heritage [2][5]. Group 1: Highlights of the Festival - The festival is seen as a manifestation of Hong Kong's dual advantages, combining its unique cultural heritage with a robust legal and business environment to foster innovation [5]. - The event features over a hundred robots that are not merely automated tools but are integrated into the artistic experience, enhancing audience engagement through immersive technology [6]. - The festival aims to create a platform for youth, igniting their passion for creativity and technology through workshops and lectures, thereby serving as a crucial growth opportunity for the younger generation [6][8]. Group 2: Future Directions - The Hong Kong Arts Development Council is committed to promoting the integration of art and technology, as well as supporting the synergy between technology, art, and tourism [8]. - The council recognizes the natural alignment between tourism and technology, suggesting that many tourism experiences can be transformed through artistic and technological enhancements [8]. - There is a call for a balanced approach to technological advancement and copyright protection, emphasizing the need for a robust legal framework to support the evolving landscape of art and technology [8].

Group 1: Market Status - The correlation between A-shares and U.S. stocks has increased, with the 20-day rolling correlation of the CSI 300 and S&P 500 rising above the 90th percentile for the year, indicating a new normal of "overnight alignment, intraday reversal" [1][5][38] - Both the U.S. and China are in a phase characterized by limited upward elasticity and reduced downward risk, akin to a "Goldilocks" scenario, with the U.S. core CPI dropping to 2.6%, the lowest in three and a half years [1][8][9] - In China, corporate profitability has bottomed out, and the weakening of domestic demand creates a favorable environment for subsequent policy support [1][8] Group 2: AI Industry Chain - The investment in the AI industry chain is showing two key characteristics: broader macro effects benefiting "pan-AI" assets (copper, lithium, aluminum, energy storage, and electrical equipment) outperforming core AI assets (computing chips, optical modules, PCB) [2][17] - Investors are becoming less tolerant of the contradiction between aggressive capital expenditures and the lack of revenue growth in companies within the AI industry chain, leading to a negative correlation between stock performance and capital expenditure as a percentage of revenue [2][17][18] Group 3: Understanding "Expanding Domestic Demand" - The "income increase" plan aims to enhance net transfer payments to residents by 2025, with a focus on improving initial distribution through wage reforms, particularly in state-owned enterprises [3][25] - The expansion of consumption tax and adjustments in corporate income tax rates are expected to be seen in 2026, which may further stimulate domestic consumption [3][25][28] Group 4: Investment Strategy for 2026 - The current market conditions suggest a shift from a single industry narrative to a dual focus on "physical demand stimulation" and "domestic policy benefits," with recommendations to invest in industrial resource products (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil) and sectors benefiting from consumer recovery (airlines, hotels, food and beverages) [4][38] - Non-bank financial institutions (insurance, brokerage) are expected to benefit from capital market expansion and a bottoming out of long-term asset returns [4][38] - Opportunities are identified in China's equipment export chain and sectors showing signs of recovery in domestic manufacturing [4][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to increase left-side layout efforts in the computer sector, suggesting that the sector has undergone sufficient adjustment since September [1] - The recommendation for left-side layout focuses on three areas: 1) Sub-sectors with significant industrial potential and catalysts, such as AI, commercial aerospace, and assisted driving; 2) Sub-sectors benefiting from domestic circulation and policy dividends, including domestic production and digital RMB; 3) High-quality stocks with low valuation levels and sustainable growth capabilities [1] Group 2 - The current acceleration of capitalization in the domestic AI industry is highlighted, with companies like Moer Technology and Shanghai Muxi listing on the STAR Market, and Wallen Technology passing the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing [2] - The financing capabilities of leading domestic AI companies are significantly enhanced, which is expected to promote faster industry development [2] - Major companies like ByteDance and Ant Group are making advancements in AI, with ByteDance releasing new models and Ant Group upgrading its AI health application, indicating a sustained high level of activity in the domestic AI chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its bull market, driven by strong macroeconomic policies, industrial transformation, capital market reforms, and sustained inflow of funds, despite potential short-term fluctuations [10][15]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from approximately 3200 points at the beginning of the year to around 3900 points by year-end, reflecting a robust upward trend [7]. - The market saw an 8.5% increase in the first quarter, followed by a strong rebound after a brief panic due to a tariff war, with the index reaching 3350-3400 points [7]. - By the third quarter, the index surged from 3400 points to over 3900 points, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% [7]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for the Bull Market - Macroeconomic policies are expected to remain supportive, with a focus on stabilizing the economy through proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [10]. - The ongoing industrial transformation is anticipated to release new growth momentum, with emerging sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing becoming increasingly prominent in the A-share market [11]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, enhancing resource allocation efficiency and improving investor returns through measures like regularized delisting and increased dividend payouts [12]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities - The technology growth sector, particularly AI, energy storage, and aerospace, is highlighted as a key investment focus, with AI expected to be the leading investment theme in 2026 [22]. - The energy storage sector is projected to experience significant growth, driven by increasing demand from AI data centers and improvements in supply chain dynamics [29]. - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a rapid development phase, supported by favorable policies and growing market demand for satellite internet and other applications [30]. Group 4: Metal Sector Insights - The performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is closely linked to metal prices, with significant price increases observed in copper, aluminum, and rare earth metals due to strong demand and supply constraints [33]. - Copper demand is expected to rise due to its critical role in AI infrastructure and energy transition, while supply remains constrained due to slow new capacity additions and geopolitical factors [34]. - The small metals sector, including rare earths and lithium, is anticipated to benefit from supply-demand tightness and increasing applications in various industries [36].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a structural bull market in 2026, driven by factors such as policy support, domestic demand stabilization, and industrial upgrades [4][8][11]. Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend in 2025, with significant contributions from the technology sector and companies expanding overseas [4][5]. - Key sectors that exceeded expectations included Chinese companies going global and the commercialization of AI, with notable growth in overseas AI demand [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment was influenced by improved liquidity and a shift in policy, leading to a bullish outlook for the A-share market [5][6]. Group 2: Outlook for 2026 - A-share earnings growth is anticipated to show a pattern of low-to-high progression, while the Hong Kong market may see a style shift towards core assets [8][11]. - The "New Four Bulls" logic is expected to drive the market, focusing on capital inflows, technological innovation, institutional reforms, and consumption upgrades [8][11]. - The overall economic growth is projected to remain within a reasonable range, with a gradual reduction in the negative impact of real estate on the economy [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The primary investment themes for 2026 include "Technology + Going Global," with a focus on AI applications and companies expanding overseas [12][13]. - Key sectors to watch include high-end manufacturing, new energy, and industries benefiting from global market growth, such as machinery and electronics [13][14]. - The market is expected to transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one driven by earnings improvement, with a more balanced sector performance anticipated [19][20]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trends - The market is likely to see a convergence of performance across sectors, moving from a phase of significant differentiation to a more balanced approach [18][19]. - The focus will shift towards sectors with high growth potential, as the market transitions from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) [18][19]. - The structural characteristics of the market will continue to be influenced by technological advancements and policy support, with a gradual reduction in the impact of traditional sectors [19][20].

Group 1 - The core view is that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to continue rising in 2026, with "technology + overseas expansion" remaining the main theme [1][18] - In 2025, A-shares experienced a structural market with a notable performance in technology and non-ferrous sectors, exceeding initial expectations [2][21] - Analysts predict that the macroeconomic environment will support a bullish trend in the capital markets, driven by policy support, domestic demand stabilization, and industrial upgrades [5][25] Group 2 - A-shares are expected to see a recovery in profit growth, with a potential shift in Hong Kong stocks towards core assets [22][23] - The "new four bulls" logic includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrades, which are anticipated to drive market performance [22][27] - Analysts emphasize the importance of the real estate cycle and corporate overseas expansion as key factors influencing A-share performance [34] Group 3 - The focus for 2026 investment opportunities includes sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from ongoing technological trends [26][27] - Analysts highlight the significance of China's competitive manufacturing sector, which is poised to capitalize on global market growth and pricing power [33] - The anticipated recovery in domestic demand and the potential for price increases in various sectors are seen as critical drivers for market performance [32][28] Group 4 - The market is expected to transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one driven by profit improvement, with a more balanced performance across sectors [31][22] - Analysts suggest that the current extreme market differentiation is unlikely to persist, with a gradual convergence expected in 2026 [30][31] - The focus on "technology + overseas expansion" is projected to remain a strong investment theme, with significant opportunities in engineering machinery, power equipment, and consumer electronics [26][33]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, with "technology + overseas expansion" remaining the main investment theme [2][9]. Group 1: 2025 Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a volatile upward trend in 2025, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming due to catalysts like DeepSeek [6]. - The market experienced a "V-shaped" recovery after a sharp decline in Q2, driven by increased overseas AI demand [6]. - Key unexpected areas included the overseas expansion of Chinese companies and the commercialization of AI, which exceeded initial expectations [6][7]. - The bull market was supported by policy shifts, improved liquidity, and a favorable global economic environment [7][8]. Group 2: 2026 Market Outlook - A-share earnings growth is anticipated to show a "front low and back high" trend, while Hong Kong stocks may see a style shift towards core assets [10]. - The "new four bulls" logic includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [10][11]. - The A-share market is expected to enter a recovery phase in earnings, driven by improving liquidity and positive signals from the real estate sector [11][12]. - The overall economic growth is projected to remain stable, with a focus on quality improvement as the negative impact of real estate diminishes [12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "technology + overseas expansion" theme is expected to be a key driver of A-share earnings growth over the next three years [14]. - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, electric power, and high-end manufacturing, particularly in areas like engineering machinery and chemicals [14][15]. - The focus on "new highs" in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and new consumption is emphasized, alongside the importance of global competitiveness [15][16]. - Seven major investment themes for 2026 include policy cycles, technology cycles, real estate cycles, and capital market reforms [16]. Group 4: Market Differentiation and Trends - Market differentiation is expected to narrow, driven by positive changes in domestic demand and the performance of high-growth sectors [20][21]. - The transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one driven by earnings improvement is anticipated, with a focus on cyclical sectors [21][22]. - The current extreme differentiation in the market is unlikely to persist, with a gradual shift towards a more balanced market structure expected in 2026 [22]. Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Key risks include policy uncertainties and potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which could impact liquidity [26]. - The performance of the real estate sector and the overseas revenue of A-share companies are critical factors to monitor [26].

Core Company Insights - CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV) is a significant player in the AI industry, providing essential computing infrastructure to AI software firms [2] - The company's shares have increased by 61% since its IPO in March but have experienced a 14% decline over the past month [2] - Since the beginning of October, CoreWeave's shares have dropped by over 50%, prompting multiple analysts to adjust their ratings [3] Financial Performance and Analyst Ratings - BofA reduced its share price target for CoreWeave from $168 to $140 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing a reduced fiscal year outlook but noting a strong backlog [3] - Jefferies also lowered its price target from $180 to $155 due to lower 2025 capital expenditure guidance [3] Operational Challenges - CoreWeave's 260-megawatt data center in Texas is facing construction delays attributed to adverse weather conditions [2] - There is a concern regarding a talent shortage in the construction sector, which may impact the company's ability to meet its operational goals [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is optimism regarding CoreWeave's business model, which focuses on maximizing capacity and renting it out [4] - The potential for CoreWeave as an investment is acknowledged, although some analysts believe other AI stocks may offer better returns with lower risk [4]

We recently published 12 Stocks on Jim Cramer’s Radar.  Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the stocks on Jim Cramer's radar. Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is a key player in the AI industry due to several factors. These include the firm’s Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud computing business and its in-house Trainium AI chips. The highly competitive cloud computing industry, which sees investors demand high growth rates, has also affected Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in 2025. As an example, the shar ...