农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/6/6-2025/6/19） 行 业 能繁母猪有望持续去化 2025 年 6 月 20 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 所 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn SW农林牧渔行业跑输沪深300指数。2025年6月6日—2025年6月19日，SW 农林牧渔行业下跌1.11%，跑输同期沪深300指数约0.22个百分点；细分板 块中，仅养殖业录得正收益，上涨1.51%；种植业、动物保健、农产品加 工、渔业和饲料均录得负收益，分别下跌2.15%、2.77%、3.51%、4.15%和 4.92%。估值方面，截至2025年6月19日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB（整 体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2.58倍，近两周先回升后回落。目前行 业估值处于行业2006年以来的 ...

Investment Strategy Overview - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][5][6] Market Performance - From the beginning of 2025 to June 16, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index achieved an absolute return of +12.81%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 14.5 percentage points [10][13] - The pet food sector has shown the highest growth, while the aquatic processing sector has also performed well [13][14] Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding industry is expected to enter a phase of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the second half of 2025, driven by a sufficient supply of piglets and an increase in domestic slaughtering due to reduced imports from the U.S. [15][30] - The number of breeding sows and total swine stock remains high, with a notable increase in piglet supply observed from January to April 2025 [18][30] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods have reported significant increases in piglet sales, indicating strong market dynamics [17][30] Animal Health Sector - The animal health market is experiencing steady growth, with a market size increase from 472.29 billion yuan in 2016 to 696.51 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [35][36] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [41][48] Seed Industry - The seed industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on the commercialization of biotechnology breeding, which is expected to enhance market concentration and profitability for related companies [4][16][19] - The regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and companies that have passed initial reviews are now obtaining operational licenses, positioning them to benefit from the industry's growth [4][19] Pet Food Sector - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, driven by demographic changes and rising living standards, with the market size expected to expand significantly [5][23] - The domestic pet food industry is seeing a shift towards increased online sales and domestic product substitution, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][23][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the sector, including Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guai Bao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions and valuation recovery [5][32]

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the financial performance and operational changes of Shandong Lukang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., highlighting significant growth in sales net profit margin and the impact of asset disposal on profitability [1][11]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the reporting periods was 562.14 million yuan, 614.67 million yuan, and 623.31 million yuan, with net profits of 13.80 million yuan, 24.62 million yuan, and 40.83 million yuan respectively [1][2]. - The sales net profit margins increased from 2.55% in 2022 to 4.18% in 2023, and further to 6.55% in 2024, primarily due to changes in product structure and asset disposal gains [3][11]. Gross Margin Analysis - The comprehensive gross margins for the reporting periods were 22.19%, 24.65%, and 23.96%, with the main business gross margin contributing significantly to overall profitability [3][4]. - The gross margin for the human medicine segment showed a steady increase, with the formulation drug gross margin rising from 33.68% to 41.46% over the reporting periods [4][5]. Cost Structure - The operating costs for the company were 473.95 million yuan, 463.13 million yuan, and 437.40 million yuan, indicating a controlled cost structure relative to revenue growth [2][6]. - Direct material costs accounted for approximately 75.45% of total revenue, reflecting the significant impact of raw material prices on overall profitability [6][8]. Market Competition and Product Performance - The raw material drug gross margin fluctuated, showing a decline in 2023 due to market competition, followed by a recovery in 2024 [5][9]. - The veterinary medicine segment experienced variable gross margins, influenced by market demand and competition, with margins of 15.66%, 18.16%, and 13.23% over the reporting periods [9][10]. Asset Disposal Impact - The company realized substantial asset disposal gains in 2024, amounting to 283.26 million yuan, significantly boosting net profit and sales net profit margin [9][10]. - The asset disposal was linked to the completion of land storage for the southern plant area, which was part of a strategic relocation initiative [10][11]. Export and Revenue Matching - The customs declaration data matched closely with overseas revenue, with minor discrepancies deemed reasonable due to small sample exports and timing differences [13][14]. - The company’s overseas revenue was diversified across several countries, including the UK, Netherlands, and Egypt, with stable trade and tariff policies [16][17]. Sales Expenses - The sales expense ratios were 8.45%, 9.40%, and 9.11%, significantly lower than the industry average, indicating efficient cost management in sales promotion [19][20]. - The increase in promotional expenses from 2023 was attributed to strategic marketing efforts to enhance product visibility and market share [19].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the North Exchange has accelerated its IPO approvals, with a total of 9 companies approved from January to June 2025, suggesting an increase in listing pace as companies finalize their 2024 annual reports [3][11]. - The average number of effective online subscription accounts reached 460,100, with an average of 475.2 billion yuan in frozen funds during the same period, reflecting heightened market activity [3][12]. - The average fundraising amount per company in the North Exchange for the first half of 2025 was 396 million yuan, representing a 94.55% increase compared to 2024, indicating a trend towards larger fundraising efforts [3][20]. Group 2 - The North Exchange's overall PE ratio decreased to 50.12X, with the North 50 Index closing at 1,382.74 points, down 0.71% for the week, highlighting a volatile market environment [4][30][32]. - The report notes that 143 companies in the North Exchange have a PE ratio exceeding 45X, with 71 companies exceeding 105X, indicating a significant portion of the market is highly valued [4][35]. - The average maximum online subscription limit was 9.81 million yuan, with a notable increase to 16.13 million yuan in the first half of 2025, suggesting improved investor capacity for participation [3][24]. Group 3 - The report highlights that from January 1, 2024, to June 13, 2025, the average subscription rate for companies raising over 200 million yuan was 0.14%, compared to 0.06% for those raising less, indicating a correlation between fundraising size and subscription success [3][17]. - The average subscription threshold for 100 shares was 1.5827 million yuan, which increased to 1.8591 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting rising entry costs for investors [3][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with reasonable valuations and strong performance potential, particularly those that align with new industrial and technological trends [4][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent decline in pig prices has led to increased resistance from the breeding sector, with large producers gradually easing their selling pace. However, high temperatures have weakened terminal demand, resulting in low slaughter volumes and insufficient consumer support [1][22]. - The corn and soybean meal prices have risen, while wheat prices have decreased. The corn market is buoyed by a decrease in circulation due to the wheat harvest, and soybean supply remains ample due to favorable weather conditions in major production areas [2][44]. - The natural rubber price has increased, supported by tightening supply due to weather impacts on production and recovering demand from tire manufacturers [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 1.62% compared to a 0.25% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with livestock farming and animal health sectors increasing by 3.92% and 1.13%, respectively, while planting and feed sectors experienced declines [13][18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.02 yuan/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets fell by 4.69% to 32.89 yuan/kg [21][22]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased to 128.82 kg, and the national frozen meat inventory rate increased to 13.89% [22]. - White feather broiler prices dropped to 7.27 yuan/kg, and chick prices fell to 2.74 yuan each, reflecting a weak market for poultry [31][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, the report suggests that the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and with ongoing policy support for inventory reduction, a long-term profit uptrend is expected post-inventory clearance. Recommended stocks include Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [3][71]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the planting chain due to the upward trend in grain prices, recommending stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][71]. - In the pet food sector, the report notes ongoing growth and price increase logic, recommending companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [3][71].

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share (including tax) for the fiscal year 2024 [1][3] - The profit distribution plan was approved at the annual general meeting held on May 16, 2025 [1][2] Distribution Plan - The dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited Shanghai Branch as of the close of trading on the registration date [2] - The total number of shares eligible for the dividend is 341,919,373 shares, after excluding 4,142,900 shares held in the company's repurchase account [3] Dividend Calculation - The cash dividend per share is calculated as follows: (Total eligible shares × Cash dividend per share) ÷ Total share capital = (341,919,373 shares × 0.40 yuan) = 136,767,749.20 yuan in total [3][4] - The reference price for ex-dividend trading is calculated based on the previous closing price minus the cash dividend [4] Implementation Method - Cash dividends will be distributed through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited Shanghai Branch to shareholders who have completed designated transactions [5] - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares, the actual cash dividend after tax is 0.40 yuan per share, with specific tax implications based on holding periods [5][6] Taxation Details - For individual shareholders holding shares for more than one year, the dividend income is exempt from personal income tax [5] - For shares held for less than one year, the tax will be calculated upon the transfer of shares, with a potential effective tax rate of 10% for certain holding periods [6] - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will have a 10% withholding tax applied, resulting in a net dividend of 0.36 yuan per share [6][7] Contact Information - For inquiries regarding the dividend distribution, shareholders can contact the company's securities affairs department at the provided phone number [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the innovative achievements of Jinhe Biological, particularly the acquisition of a patent for a dual-subunit vaccine for cats, which enhances the company's competitive edge in the pet healthcare market [1][2] - The patent allows for a simplified production process that can produce two types of viral subunit vaccines simultaneously, reducing production costs and promoting sustainable innovation within the company [1] - The pet economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with the urban pet consumption scale projected to increase from 170.8 billion yuan in 2018 to 300.2 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 9.86% [1] Group 2 - Jinhe Biological has strategically positioned itself in the pet healthcare market by establishing a dedicated pet division in 2019 and a Shanghai branch in 2024, focusing on both imported and domestic brands [2] - The company has developed a diverse product line, including eight natural plant extracts and probiotics, with eleven additional products under application, laying a solid foundation for future market expansion [2] - Jinhe Biological's "Aichongyi" brand received the "2025 Annual Science and Technology Innovation Brand Award," recognizing the company's innovation capabilities and product brand value in the pet medical field [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the agricultural sector, specifically highlighting investment opportunities in the pig farming and pet food industries [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the pet food sector during the "618" shopping festival, with leading brands showing significant sales growth. It also notes the potential for re-evaluation of pig prices due to changing market conditions [4][5]. - The agricultural index increased by 1.8%, contrasting with a 1.1% decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, indicating a favorable market environment for agricultural stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The agricultural index rose by 1.8%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.1%. The top five gainers included ST Tianshan (13.6%), Juxing Agriculture (13.2%), and Xiwang Food (12.4%) [5][12]. - The report suggests focusing on the sales performance of pet food during the "618" shopping festival and the re-evaluation of pig prices, particularly for undervalued leading pig farming companies [4][5]. Pig Farming - Pig prices continue to show strong fluctuations, with a national average selling price of 14.42 CNY/kg as of June 2, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.8%. The report indicates that the overall industry remains profitable, with a profit of 125.3 CNY per head for large-scale farms [4][5]. - The report highlights the expectation of a re-evaluation of pig prices in the second half of the year, driven by strong market realities and declining breeding costs [4][5]. Pet Food - The "618" shopping festival saw explosive sales in the pet food sector, with major brands performing exceptionally well. The festival's duration was extended, leading to increased sales [4][14]. - Key brands such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. showed significant improvements in their rankings on e-commerce platforms, indicating a strong market presence [21][23][28]. Animal Health - The report notes that the re-evaluation of pig prices may drive demand for animal health products, particularly vaccines. The first quarter of 2025 saw a 23.02% year-on-year increase in vaccine approvals [4][5]. - Companies focusing on pet health products are expected to benefit from the growing demand in the market [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][77]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector is showing signs of recovery, with the industry capacity cycle having bottomed out. The current high inventory levels and peak post-slaughter weights suggest a potential turning point in inventory, which may lead to a long-term profit uptrend after destocking [4][75]. - The report highlights a stable increase in pig prices, with the national average price for live pigs at 14.40 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. However, the demand is expected to weaken as the summer approaches [1][24]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices dropping to 13,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.57% week-on-week. This shift indicates a transition from strong reality to weak expectations in the market [3][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.79% compared to a slight decline in major indices [14]. - The pig farming segment is witnessing a slight increase in slaughter weights, with the average weight at 129.18 kg, down 0.15% week-on-week [24]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, while the average price of piglets increased by 5.2% year-on-year [2][23]. - The inventory of breeding sows remained stable at 40.38 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [2][23]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, suggesting stocks like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture for potential long-term gains [4][75]. - For the post-cycle sector, companies like Haida Group and Ruipu Biological are highlighted due to the rising demand for feed and veterinary products [4][75]. - In the planting chain, the report suggests investing in companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang, as grain prices are on an upward trend [4][75]. 4. Commodity Insights - The report notes a significant drop in natural rubber prices, indicating a cautious sentiment among manufacturers regarding raw material procurement [3][65]. - The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown mixed trends, with corn prices slightly increasing while soybean meal prices have decreased [50][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May, the A-share market rose slightly overall with a stable index but significant structural changes. The market style was biased towards micro-cap and medical sectors, with relatively average profit - making effects, decreased trading activity, and increased industry rotation speed [3][6]. - Due to the interweaving of internal and external factors, the index is expected to fluctuate in June. Although the most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that exports will maintain high growth in the short - term, with consumption remaining an important driving force for economic recovery [3][31]. - There are three certain main investment lines: domestic demand consumption, domestic substitution, and under - weighted sectors by funds. In June, the market may tend to a defensive style, and attention should be paid to the Internet and consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Three Market - Concerned Core Issues 3.1.1 Core Issue One: Stable Index Points but Significant Structural Changes - In May, the A - share market rose slightly overall, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing slightly higher. The WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index and CSI 2000 had relatively high gains, while the STAR 50 Index declined [6]. - In terms of industries, environmental protection and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while electronics and social services led the losses. The market style was biased towards micro - cap and medical sectors. The micro - cap style outperformed in May, with the WanDe Micro - cap Stock Index rising 9.3%. The medical and healthcare sector rose 6.2%, outperforming other sectors [11][15]. - The market's profit - making effect was relatively average in May, with the net outflow of equity ETF funds exceeding 40 billion yuan. Market trading activity decreased, while industry rotation speed increased [20][26]. 3.1.2 Core Issue Two: Interweaving of Internal and External Factors, Expected Overall Index Fluctuation - The most severe short - term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance against the Trump administration's policy reversals is still needed. Trump's previous trade frictions with many countries and his current short - term compromise are for a buffer for his anti - globalization policies [31][35]. - Trump's previous technology policies against China mainly restricted technology product exports and the development of Chinese enterprises. The new round of US technology policies may focus on restricting the AI industry [39][42]. - US stock enterprises may face greater profit pressure this time, and it is difficult to hedge through tax cuts. Domestic policies are actively implemented, and it is expected that the economy in the second quarter will remain resilient. Exports may maintain high growth in the short - term, consumption will still be an important driving force for economic recovery, industrial production will remain high, and investment growth is expected to remain high [44][50]. 3.1.3 Core Issue Three: What are the Certain Main Lines? - Domestic demand consumption: It has been the focus of domestic policies, and future policies are expected to continue to catalyze. The consumer industry has relatively low overseas revenue and more resilient performance. Some consumer industries, such as household products, food processing, professional services, and leisure food, are worthy of attention [73]. - Domestic substitution: In 2018, the domestic substitution direction once achieved excess returns. Two investment clues are worthy of attention: industries with high dependence on US imports and strong domestic supply capabilities, and industries with high dependence on US imports but the potential to improve domestic supply capabilities [84][85]. - Under - weighted sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Offering Funds" may have a profound impact on fund industry allocation. Some under - weighted sectors by funds are worthy of attention in the medium - to - long - term, including banks, non - bank finance, public utilities, and transportation, but short - term over - interpretation should be avoided [89]. 3.2 A - share Market: May Tend to a Defensive Style in June - Based on the combination of "economic reality" and "market sentiment", the market can be divided into four styles: balanced, pro - cyclical, defensive, and theme - growth and independent prosperity [98]. - In June, the economic reality or economic expectation is less likely to be "strong" in the short - term, and the market sentiment is expected to be weak. Therefore, the market style in June may tend to a defensive style [103][109]. - In a defensive style, attention should be paid to stable or high - dividend industries, such as public utilities, coal, and some sub - sectors [114]. - The five - dimensional industry comparison framework is used to comprehensively analyze and judge industry stock price performance. In May, under the assumption of a decline in market sentiment, the industry grouping effect was good, and the first - group industries achieved excess returns [119][123]. 3.3 Hong Kong Stock Market: Focus on Internet and Consumption Directions In May, the Hong Kong stock market rose, with a significant narrowing of the inflow of southbound funds but a relatively high trading proportion. Attention should be paid to the US restrictions on Chinese concept stocks listed in the US and investment in China. It is recommended to focus on the Internet, automobile, and service consumption directions in the Hong Kong stock market [3].