Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance predictions for various industries in the upcoming mid-year reports, highlighting sectors that may show strong growth or improvement in performance [4]. Industry Performance Predictions - The manufacturing sector is expected to have the highest growth rate in performance, while the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector may show the most significant improvement [4]. - Industries such as light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials are predicted to have higher growth rates in their mid-year performance reports [4]. - Conversely, industries like construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications are anticipated to show substantial improvement in performance metrics [4]. Market Trends - The convertible bond market has seen a continuous increase for three weeks, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.8% in the last week, outperforming the equity market [5]. - The copper market is facing potential supply pressure due to a recent announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S., which may affect global copper inventory flows [6]. - Oil prices have rebounded due to seasonal demand increases and anticipated supply constraints from OPEC+, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.1% and 3.4% respectively [8]. Specific Industry Insights - Dow Chemical's decision to close its organic silicon plant in the UK is expected to reduce supply in Europe, potentially alleviating price pressures in the organic silicon market and benefiting high-quality exports from Chinese companies [8]. - The pork market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and increased storage costs, with the average price of live pigs dropping by 3.52% week-on-week [9]. - China State Construction's high dividend yield is becoming competitive compared to banks, with a stable dividend policy and a strong order book growth despite the low-interest-rate environment [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large factories in Xinjiang will have a significant impact on the fundamentals of industrial silicon. The failure of large factories in Xinjiang to resume production as expected has led to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals of industrial silicon. For polysilicon, in response to the government's "anti - involution" policy, polysilicon enterprises have raised their offers, but the actual transactions are yet to be seen. The price increase of polysilicon depends on the implementation of production cuts and the price increase of downstream products [2][3] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds and wait for right - hand signals. For polysilicon, although it is generally bullish, short - term callback risks should be noted, and attention can be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 435 yuan/ton to 8415 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 5820 yuan/ton to 41330 yuan/ton. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material this week increased by 2400 yuan/ton to 37100 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories' Resumption of Production Falling Short of Expectations, and Attention to the Implementation of PV Anti - Involution Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose significantly. The weekly output was 72,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month - on - month, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons month - on - month. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, industrial silicon may have a monthly de - stocking of 60,000 tons. If it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may have a monthly inventory build - up of 30,000 tons. The market transaction price of 99 silicon powder rose to about 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [12] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon bottomed out and rebounded. The overall enterprise operating rate this week was 70.9%, the weekly output was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, and the inventory was 48,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41% [12][13] Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures continued to rise sharply. The quoted price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material ranges from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, but there are no actual transactions yet. It is expected that the polysilicon production schedule in July will increase to 110,000 tons, and it will enter a monthly inventory build - up state. As of July 10, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 276,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [13] Silicon Wafers - This week, the quoted price of silicon wafers was significantly increased, but there were no market transactions yet. The production schedule in July is expected to be 52GW, a month - on - month decrease of more than 10%. As of July 10, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 18.13GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09GW [14] Battery Cells - This week, the quoted price of battery cells was significantly increased. The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to be 54GW, still in an oversupply state. As of July 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.86GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.33GW [15] Components - This week, the component price was stalemate. The 7 - month component production schedule is expected to be 45GW. The difficulty in component price increase lies in its lag and the preferential issues in downstream actual procurement [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds of industrial silicon. Observing right - hand signals such as large factories' resumption of production and warehouse receipt registration may be safer [17] Polysilicon - Generally, a bullish view is taken on polysilicon, but short - term callback risks should be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [17] 3.4 Hot News Collation - From the settlement on July 14, 2025, the daily price limit of polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10% [18] - Hongyuan Green Energy intends to participate in the pre - reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. Its subsidiary will cooperate with Wuxi Suntech for production and operation management [18] - Runyang's Yunnan base resumed full - load production in 10 days, breaking the industry record [18]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent price increase of organic silicon intermediates is attributed to sufficient pre-sale orders and rising metal silicon prices [9][11] - The supply side is expected to see limited new capacity for organic silicon in China, while demand from electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics is anticipated to grow [30] - The closure of overseas production capacity, such as Dow's UK facility, is beneficial for China's organic silicon exports, improving the supply-demand balance [29][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the basic chemical industry rose by 1.53%, ranking 19th among all Shenwan first-level industries [12] - The top five stocks by weekly increase in the basic chemical industry included: Shangwei New Materials, Hongbo New Materials, Chenguang New Materials, *ST Yatai, and Dongyue Silicon Materials [12] Sub-industry - Organic Silicon - As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon intermediate DMC was 11,000 RMB/ton, up 1.9% from the previous week [11][14] - The industry is experiencing a decrease in inventory and a strong willingness to maintain prices, although downstream demand has not significantly increased [14] - The recent rise in metal silicon prices is providing cost support for organic silicon prices [14] Investment Recommendations - The organic silicon industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential recovery in industry prosperity [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the organic silicon industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - Dow Chemical plans to close its basic siloxane plant in Barry, UK, by mid-2026 as part of its European asset optimization strategy, which will reduce siloxane production capacity by 145,000 tons per year, representing nearly one-third of Europe's total capacity [5]. - The closure is expected to enhance the pricing of organic silicon materials and improve the industry's overall profitability, while also creating significant opportunities for Chinese exporters to fill the supply gap left by the European exit [5]. - The report highlights a steady increase in industrial silicon prices, which supports the upward trend in organic silicon prices, with the average market price reaching 8,881 CNY per ton as of July 10, 2025, up 245 CNY from June 11, 2025 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The organic silicon industry has shown a positive performance relative to the basic chemical sector and the CSI 300 index over the past year, with a 12-month increase of 17.4% for basic chemicals and 15.8% for CSI 300 [3]. Investment Highlights - The anticipated exit of major overseas producers from the market is expected to enhance the industry's outlook, with a notable increase in demand for organic silicon intermediates, which saw a 5.77% year-on-year increase in exports from China in the first five months of 2025 [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with organic silicon intermediate DMC production capacity, such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and others [8]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several key companies, indicating a positive growth trajectory for firms like Hoshine Silicon Industry and Xingfa Group, with projected EPS of 1.72 and 1.85 for 2025, respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the closure of Dow's UK plant, which has a capacity of 145,000 tons, is part of a strategy to optimize European assets and focus on high-value derivatives, signaling a potential marginal improvement in the organic silicon industry [6] - The report anticipates that the exit of overseas capacity will lead to an increase in the prices of organic silicon base materials, alleviating some of the downward price pressure caused by global overcapacity [6] - The report notes that the domestic manufacturers with better cost control are likely to benefit from the demand shift due to the closure of overseas plants [6] - The report emphasizes that the organic silicon industry is entering a phase of supply-side pressure relief, with a significant increase in production capacity expected in 2024, but the lack of large-scale new capacity following this period may lead to improved supply dynamics [6] - The report indicates that the domestic demand for organic silicon is expected to grow steadily, driven by increased penetration in emerging fields such as electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic cells [6] - The report also highlights that China's exports of polysiloxane are projected to reach approximately 80,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a significant growth opportunity as overseas demand remains strong [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis showing a range of market movements from -15% to +29% for the basic chemical sector against the CSI 300 index from July 2024 to July 2025 [3] Related Research - The report references several related studies that discuss trends in deep-sea technology, policy impacts on capacity overcapacity, and the recovery of demand for light initiators, indicating a broader context for the organic silicon market [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xin'an Chemical, Xingfa Group, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Sanyou Chemical as potential investment opportunities [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry have slightly improved, with supply - side reductions by large northwestern plants and lower southwestern start - up rates compared to previous years, and a certain increase in consumption. However, the overall industry inventory level is high, there is hedging pressure after the rebound, and there is a possibility of复产 by short - term shutdown enterprises and during the southwestern wet season, while the terminal consumption has not improved, so the fundamentals are weak. The rise in the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the sharp rise in polysilicon, and whether there will be policy support in the industrial silicon industry needs to be closely monitored. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and short positions need to pay attention to stop - loss or use options for protection [3]. - The polysilicon market has been affected by policy promotion and capital sentiment recently, with both futures and spot quotes rising sharply. Although the current spot has no transactions, actual transactions may occur in the near future. There are many policy disturbances such as anti - involution, storage and mergers, and self - disciplined production cuts in the photovoltaic industry. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,250 yuan/ton and closed at 8,470 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton (3.74%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 381,237 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 248 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 8,700 - 8,800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,100 - 8,300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,300 - 10,600 yuan/ton. The bottom price of domestic DMC rose slightly to 10,700 yuan/ton this week, and the quoted price of East China monomer enterprises was 10,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week, while other monomer enterprises' quotes rose to around 11,000 yuan/ton, driving a slight increase in the prices of DMC downstream products [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 10, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2508 continued to rise, opening at 39,500 yuan/ton and closing at 41,345 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 5.50% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 98,601 lots (97,187 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 1,014,567 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with the price of re - feeding material at 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material at 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material at 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon at 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material at 43.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.60, a 1.40% increase from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous period, the weekly polysilicon output was 22,800.00 tons, a 5.00% decrease from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a 3.37% decrease from the previous period [5]. - Silicon wafers: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.00 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.35 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.15 yuan/piece [5]. - Battery cells: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - Components: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Pay attention to risks; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [9]. - Medium - to - long - term: Suitable to build long positions at low prices [7].

Group 1 - The organic silicon concept sector rose by 2.51%, ranking third among concept sectors, with 33 stocks increasing in value, including Hongbai New Materials and Chenguang New Materials hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the organic silicon sector included Silica Technology, which increased by 18.29%, and Chenghua Co., which rose by 8.09% [1] - The sector saw a net inflow of 321 million yuan from main funds, with 22 stocks experiencing net inflows, and Silica Technology leading with a net inflow of 229 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Chenguang New Materials at 50.01%, Hongbai New Materials at 19.28%, and Kangpeng Technology at 12.72% [2] - The organic silicon concept's top performers based on net inflow included Silica Technology with a net inflow of 228.72 million yuan and Hongbai New Materials with 45.05 million yuan [2] - Other significant stocks in the sector included He Sheng Silicon Industry and Chenguang New Materials, with net inflows of 37.25 million yuan and 36.21 million yuan, respectively [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile on July 9, 2025, with the main contract 2509 opening at 8200 yuan/ton and closing at 8140 yuan/ton, a change of -0.67% from the previous settlement price. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, while the price of organic silicon DMC was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the online quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises due to cost support [1]. - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon have slightly improved, but without policy support, the price may still weaken. The polycrystalline silicon futures price continued to rise on July 9, 2025, and the spot price remained stable. The price increase has been transmitted to the silicon wafer segment, and the progress and implementation of policies need to be monitored [1][3][6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8200 yuan/ton and closed at 8140 yuan/ton, a change of -55 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract was 399029 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50792 lots, a change of -285 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. The online DMC quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises was raised to 10700 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous level, mainly due to cost support [1]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polycrystalline silicon futures opened at 38480 yuan/ton and closed at 39270 yuan/ton, a change of 5.03% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 97187 lots (110547 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 794464 lots [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price of polycrystalline silicon remained stable. The prices of re - feeding materials, dense materials, cauliflower materials, granular silicon, N - type materials, and N - type granular silicon were within certain ranges, with slight increases in N - type materials and N - type granular silicon [3]. - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polycrystalline silicon manufacturers increased slightly, with a 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% month - on - month. The weekly production of polycrystalline silicon was 24000 tons, a 1.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW, a - 11.46% month - on - month change [3]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type silicon wafers increased significantly on the afternoon of July 9, with an average increase of 0.1 - 0.15 yuan/piece [3][5]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable [5]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained stable [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Mainly use range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [2]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies are recommended [2]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [6]. - **Other Strategies**: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies are recommended [6].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 0.36% to surpass 3500, indicating a stable position despite the modest increase [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by only 0.02%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3%, and the North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.03%, showing a divergence in market performance [1][3] Market Dynamics - Despite the overall index being positive, over 3100 stocks in the market have declined, highlighting a "index-driven market" where funds are concentrated in a few sectors [3] - The total trading volume decreased to 934.4 billion, down by 34.7 billion from the previous day, suggesting a cautious approach from investors [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors showing strength include organic silicon, diversified finance, and rare earth permanent magnets, with companies like Hongbo New Materials and Chenguang New Materials hitting the daily limit [3] - The organic silicon sector is benefiting from a recovery in downstream demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles [3] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector is supported by the recovery of manufacturing and demand from new energy motors and wind power equipment [3] Banking Sector - Major banks, including the four largest state-owned banks, have reached new highs, indicating a shift of funds towards stable investments [3] - The current market interest rates are not high, making the dividend yields of these banks attractive to risk-averse investors [3] - Recent macroeconomic data shows stability in credit and social financing, supporting the banks' fundamentals [3] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector is active, with companies like Warner Pharmaceuticals reaching historical highs, driven by strong earnings and new drug developments [4] - Continuous policy support for innovative drugs has encouraged investment in this sector [4] Underperforming Sectors - Sectors such as PCB, military equipment, gaming, and storage chips have seen significant declines, with PCB companies like Zhongjing Electronics nearing their daily limit down [4] - The military equipment sector is experiencing downward pressure due to adjustments in short-term order expectations [4] Investment Strategy - The current market environment reflects a common trend of differentiation, where funds are gravitating towards sectors with solid performance and reasonable valuations, such as banks and rare earths [5] - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamentals of their holdings rather than daily fluctuations, as stable growth opportunities exist in sectors like banking [5]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.02%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.3% and the North Star 50 Index dropped by 1.03% [1] - Total market turnover reached 934.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.7 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The organic silicon, diversified finance, rare earth permanent magnet, innovative drug, coal mining, and banking sectors saw the largest gains, while PCB, military equipment, gaming, humanoid robots, and storage chip sectors experienced the most significant declines [1] - The organic silicon and photovoltaic sectors showed strong performance, with stocks like Hongbai New Materials and Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector also rose, with Northern Rare Earth hitting the daily limit after its earnings report [1] - The banking sector continued its strong performance, with the four major banks reaching new highs [1] - Innovative drug stocks were active, with Huana Pharmaceutical reaching a historical high and several other stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Notable Stocks - Stocks with notable performance included: - **6 consecutive limit-up**: Huaguang Huaneng [2] - **4 consecutive limit-up**: Yudai Development, Guotou Zhonglu, and Sifang New Materials [3] - **3 consecutive limit-up**: Huamei Holdings, Jinling Mining, and Tuori New Energy [4] Hot Sectors - **Western Development**: 7 stocks hit the daily limit, with 3 stocks showing consecutive limit-up, including Sifang New Materials and Yudai Development [5] - **E-commerce**: 7 stocks hit the daily limit, with 5 stocks showing consecutive limit-up, including Huamei Holdings and Hemei Group [6] - **Hydrogen Energy**: 6 stocks hit the daily limit, with 2 stocks showing consecutive limit-up, including Huaguang Huaneng and Hemei Group [7] Industry Insights - **Photovoltaic Sector**: Several silicon wafer companies raised their prices by 8% to 11.7% due to upstream silicon material price increases, although the downstream battery segment's ability to accept these price hikes remains uncertain [10] - **Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector**: Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit increase of 1883% to 2015% year-on-year for the first half of the year, leading to upward revisions in earnings expectations and target prices for related stocks [11] - **Innovative Drug Sector**: Reports indicate that Chinese innovative drugs are gaining international competitiveness, with significant data disclosures expected from upcoming conferences, suggesting a potential revaluation of the sector [13]