沪深股市在上周快速突破 3400 点之后，再次转入牛皮盘整阶段。从原因看，一方面，由于大盘多 次探底不下，韧性十足，因此多方向上试盘，并获得市场认同，其中上证指数创出年内新高。另一方 面，目前还是存量资金参与为主。在现有信息披露中，尚没有证据表明有明显的增量资金在短期内集中 介入，因此在存量格局下，短期内也很难持续放量突破。从技术上看，价升量增，放量突破，才能够确 认行情的有效性。如果从今年春节以后的几次上攻走势看，2、3 月份的最大单日成交分别为 2.19 万亿 元和 1.79 万亿元，本轮上攻则只有 1.60 万亿元，周三已萎缩到 1.40 万亿元以下，可见量能是渐次萎缩 和收敛的，存在一定的技术背离。从目前看，在没有持续放量之前，行情继续窄幅波动的可能性较大。 热点方面，仍以快速轮动为主。周三表现较强的以钢铁、水泥、煤炭、玻璃等传统行业、强周期板 块为主，此前这些板块主要受房地产行业影响较大，表现相对沉寂，目前以轮动为主，基本面没有特别 变化。而前期表现高弹性的通信设备、航天航空、半导体、电子元件等周三跌幅居前，同样是以短期表 现为主。 展望后市：大盘继续以窄幅波动为主。在未来两周，6 月份以及二季度宏 ...

盘前要闻 1、光伏、钢铁、水泥等多个行业启动去产能，更多"反内卷"举措有望落地 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 随着中央财经委会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调推动落后产能有序退出，新一轮的行业反内卷、去产 能行动大幕开启，光伏、钢铁、水泥行业已迅速开展减产工作。不同于2015年的供给侧结构性改革，本 轮反内卷明确将推进全国统一大市场建设列为核心任务。 2、特斯拉股价涨近5%！二季度交付38.4万辆，高于市场悲观预期35万辆 类型：公司 情绪影响：正面 特斯拉隔夜收涨4.97%，市值一夜大涨481亿美元。第二季度全球交付量达到384122辆，略低于分析师 平均预测的389407辆，但好于过去一周市场流传的35万至36万辆的悲观预测。在面临销量持续下滑的挑 战下，马斯克已亲自接管公司在美国和欧洲的销售业务。 投资锦囊 3、证监会：全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点举措落地，持续提升A股吸引力 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 近日，中国证监会党委召开扩大会议，研究部署资本市场贯彻落实具体举措。会议强调，全力抓好资本 市场自主开放重点举措落地，以做强主场为方向，持续提升A股市场吸引力、竞争力。始终把维护市场 稳定作为监管工作首要任 ...

（一）重要市场新闻 1、美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.02%，标普500指数涨0.47%，再创历史新高，纳指涨0.94%； 科技股集体上涨，特斯拉涨近5%，甲骨文涨超5%，英伟达、苹果涨超2%；特朗普称美越达成贸易协 议，服装和鞋类股走高，耐克涨超4%。中概股涨跌互现，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.06%；老虎证券 涨超1%，小鹏汽车涨0.6%，新东方跌超3%，阿里巴巴、哔哩哔哩跌超2%。 2、周三公布的数据显示，美国6月ADP就业人数减少3.3万人，预估为增加9.8万人，前值为增加3.7万 人。国际金价走高，现货黄金涨0.59%，报3356.93美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨0.56%，报3368.7美 元/盎司；COMEX白银期货涨1.08%，报36.79美元/盎司。国际油价强势上扬，美油主力合约收涨 3.18%，报67.53美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨3.00%，报69.12美元/桶。欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不 一，德国DAX指数涨0.49%报23790.11点，法国CAC40指数涨0.99%报7738.42点，英国富时100指数跌 0.12%报8774.69点。 （二）行业掘金 每经记者｜杨建 每 ...

7月2日，A股市场钢铁、光伏等板块掀起涨停潮。市场情绪提振的背后，是各行各业吹起的"反内卷"号 角。伴随着中央财经委员会第六次会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调"推动落后产能有序退出"，新一轮 的行业"反内卷"、去产能行动大幕开启，光伏、钢铁、水泥行业已迅速开展减产工作。 日前，国内头部光伏玻璃企业宣布自7月起集体减产30%，以缓解行业"内卷式"竞争；中国水泥协会发 布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》，明确将优化产业结构调整； 在钢铁行业，部分钢厂近期已收到减排限产通知。 行业主动减产限产的举动引发市场广泛好评。开源证券研报指出，下半年光伏行业需求转弱，产业链价 格全线承压。当前光伏行业多环节产品价格已跌破现金成本线。在此背景下，头部光伏玻璃企业计划集 体减产，契合政策导向，推动行业供需结构改善。 多个行业近期密集实施"反内卷"举措的背后，是社会各界对于愈演愈烈的"内卷式"竞争的广泛关注，以 及政策层面整治"内卷式"竞争的持续加码。 综合来看，本轮"反内卷"更突出政策与市场机制配合。赵伟认为，本轮"反内卷"协同性更强。本轮整治 中，行业自律与市场机制或更受重视；或通过绿色化、智 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co., Ltd. has announced its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) to all shareholders [1][2]. Summary by Sections Profit Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved at the annual shareholders' meeting held on May 13, 2025, with a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares based on the total share capital as of the record date [1][2]. - The company will maintain the cash dividend amount per share even if the total share capital changes due to convertible bond conversions, share buybacks, or other reasons [1][2]. Record and Ex-Dividend Dates - The record date for the rights distribution is set for July 9, 2025, and the ex-dividend date is July 10, 2025 [2][3]. Distribution Method - Cash dividends will be directly credited to shareholders' accounts through their custodial securities companies [3]. Adjustment of Related Parameters - The total cash dividend amount is calculated as 758,939,592 shares multiplied by 0.15 yuan per share, resulting in a total of 113,840,938.80 yuan [3][4]. - The ex-dividend price will be adjusted to reflect the cash dividend, calculated as the closing price on the record date minus 0.1427638 yuan [4]. Convertible Bond Adjustment - Following the distribution, the conversion price of the company's convertible bonds will be adjusted from 8.67 yuan per share to 8.53 yuan per share [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company announced a reduction in the conversion price of its convertible bonds, "Wanqing Convertible Bonds," from 8.67 CNY per share to 8.53 CNY per share, effective from July 10, 2025, due to a cash dividend distribution [1][6]. Summary by Sections Conversion Price Adjustment - The previous conversion price of "Wanqing Convertible Bonds" was 8.67 CNY per share, which will be adjusted to 8.53 CNY per share [1][6]. - The adjustment is based on the company's profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of 1.5 CNY per 10 shares [5][6]. Basis for Adjustment - The adjustment follows the regulations set by the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding convertible bonds, which require adjustments in the conversion price when there are changes in the company's equity structure [1][2]. - The formula for adjusting the conversion price is provided, taking into account factors such as stock dividends, new share issuance, and cash dividends [1][2]. Historical Adjustments - The company has previously adjusted the conversion price multiple times due to various equity distributions: - On May 27, 2021, the price was adjusted from 14.16 CNY to 13.46 CNY after a cash distribution of 7 CNY per 10 shares [2]. - On June 1, 2022, the price was adjusted from 13.46 CNY to 12.66 CNY following a cash distribution of 8 CNY per 10 shares [3]. - On June 1, 2023, the price was adjusted from 12.66 CNY to 12.40 CNY after a cash distribution of 2.6 CNY per 10 shares [4]. - On April 22, 2024, the price was adjusted to 8.76 CNY following a prior adjustment [4][5]. Current Share Structure - As of the announcement date, the total share capital of the company is 797,407,415 shares, with 38,467,823 shares held in a repurchase account not entitled to dividends [6]. - The adjusted base for the cash distribution is 758,939,592 shares, leading to a total cash distribution of approximately 113.84 million CNY [6].

Summary of Conference Call on the Cement Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the cement industry in China, particularly the Northeast region, and the government's emphasis on "anti-involution" to maintain international reputation and financial security [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Policies**: The Chinese government is taking measures to prevent vicious competition in high-loan sectors like photovoltaics and automobiles, which could threaten financial security. The China Cement Association has issued documents emphasizing capacity replacement and staggered production to regulate industry order [1][2]. - **Staggered Production**: The cement industry is implementing staggered production to achieve short-term benefits. Major enterprises in Northeast China are negotiating production halts to maintain prices, but government-led unified reporting is more effective [1][4]. - **Long-term Planning**: Companies are encouraged to develop 3-5 year plans to shut down inefficient capacity and optimize resource allocation through regional integration and mergers [1][4]. - **Profitability and Pricing**: In 2024, the Northeast market saw a price increase of approximately 100 yuan, leading to an additional profit of about 7 billion yuan. However, demand is expected to decline in 2025, with a significant drop in demand in Heilongjiang [1][7]. - **Cost Control**: Low coal prices are aiding cost control, and current production price maintenance measures can effectively alleviate price pressure [1][4]. Challenges and Considerations - **Industry Concentration**: The cement industry has a low concentration with thousands of companies, making management difficult. Companies need to design reasonable incentive mechanisms to balance sales incentives with corporate profits [5][6]. - **Support for Anti-involution**: While private enterprises support anti-involution, there are disagreements among large groups regarding top-level design [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The Northeast provinces have relatively independent cement markets, with specific price points needed for profitability: 300 yuan for Liaoning, 350 yuan for Jilin, and 350-400 yuan for Heilongjiang [1][4]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Recovery**: There is an expectation that prices may recover after key projects are released in August, but overall profitability may not match last year's levels due to volume losses [1][7]. - **Capacity Reduction**: The industry is looking at reducing excess capacity through quality control and shutting down outdated production lines. The actual capacity is around 2 billion tons, with a need to gradually close down 10% of inefficient capacity [12][19]. Communication and Coordination - **Inter-Enterprise Communication**: Increased communication among enterprises and across regions has led to beneficial outcomes, particularly in establishing trust and collaboration [23]. - **Government Coordination**: There is a need for stronger administrative measures and coordination between government bodies and enterprises to ensure effective policy implementation and address industry challenges [15][18]. Conclusion - The cement industry in China is navigating a complex landscape of government policies aimed at stabilizing the market and preventing excessive competition. Companies are encouraged to adopt long-term strategies while managing immediate pricing pressures and operational challenges. The success of these initiatives will depend on effective communication and collaboration among all stakeholders involved.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The cement industry is currently facing a policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) aimed at limiting overproduction, with a goal to increase the clinker utilization rate from 50% to 70% to improve profitability [1][3][5] - The glass industry, particularly photovoltaic (PV) glass, is experiencing price declines due to a drop in component installations, with prices nearing the loss threshold for leading companies [1][10][14] Key Points on Cement Industry - The implementation of the overproduction limitation policy may require collaboration with environmental departments and could be piloted in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [1][6] - The cement industry has seen a stabilization in volume and price in Q1 2025 due to fiscal pre-emptions and special bond issuances, but demand weakened in Q2, with expectations for price recovery in July and potential price increases in late August [1][8][9] - The actual clinker production in China is approximately 1.1 billion tons against a designed capacity of 1.8 billion tons, indicating a significant overcapacity of about 2.2 billion tons [3] - The industry is currently undergoing voluntary production cuts through inter-company negotiations, but lacks precise daily production control [8] Challenges in Cement Industry - Effective supervision of production and compliance with the overproduction limitation policy remains a challenge [7] - The need for stronger coordination between MIIT and environmental departments to enforce the policy effectively [6][7] Future Trends in Cement Industry - The focus will be on the continued push for the overproduction limitation policy, with potential trials in the Sichuan-Chongqing region [9] - Long-term demand is expected to stabilize as risks in urban investment and real estate are released, suggesting a bottoming out for leading companies [9] Key Points on Photovoltaic Glass Industry - The PV glass market is under significant pressure, with prices for 2.0 specifications nearing the loss threshold, leading to self-imposed production cuts among major companies [1][10][11] - The expected reduction in production may not reach 30% due to limited remaining capacity after previous shutdowns of smaller furnaces [11] - The price elasticity of PV glass is heavily dependent on the improvement of component demand, as past price rebounds were primarily driven by demand spikes rather than production cuts alone [12] Performance Discrepancies in PV Glass - Domestic PV glass prices have fallen to extreme loss levels, while leading companies with overseas bases report better profitability due to higher selling prices abroad [14] Current Status of Float Glass Industry - The float glass market has maintained stable daily melting volumes without significant inventory reduction or production cuts [13][15] - The industry is primarily composed of private enterprises, which limits the impact of government policies on production decisions [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the cement and photovoltaic glass industries.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic governance and policy changes in various industries, particularly focusing on the steel, non-ferrous metals, coal, and engineering machinery sectors [1][5][6][13]. Key Insights and Arguments Economic Governance and Policy Changes - The Central Financial Committee emphasizes the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for building a unified national market [1][3][4]. - Current economic policies have shifted from controlling high prices to managing low prices, reflecting a focus on high-quality development rather than mere scale expansion [5][6]. - The governance approach has transitioned from anti-monopoly to addressing disorderly competition, indicating a response to insufficient total demand and low-price competition [5][6]. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a demand downturn due to real estate sector weaknesses, with manufacturing demand now accounting for over 50% of total demand [1][16]. - The average net profit of listed companies in the steel sector has turned negative for three consecutive years, indicating a supply-side contraction [1][17]. - The steel demand cycle is gradually bottoming out, with exports performing better than expected [1][16]. - Future steel prices are expected to rebound as demand stabilizes and supply contracts, with a projected upturn in the industry over the next two to three years [19]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market is characterized by resource scarcity and the interplay of U.S.-China liquidity cycles, with a focus on tin and copper due to their technological applications [21][22]. - Tin demand is expected to rise due to its applications in technology, despite a temporary increase in supply from the resumption of production in certain regions [21][22]. - Copper prices are anticipated to reach historical highs driven by U.S. debt relief and seasonal demand [22]. Coal Market - The coal market is showing signs of price stabilization, with overall coal prices slowly rising after a challenging first half of 2025 [23][24]. - The relationship between electricity consumption and GDP is expected to remain stable, with new policies reducing the expected returns on renewable energy installations [23][24]. - Future coal supply is likely to decrease, particularly in Xinjiang, impacting China's overall coal production landscape [25][26]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is facing severe internal competition, but leading companies are beginning to raise product prices, which may improve profit margins [29][30]. - Domestic sales are projected to grow by 15%-20% this year, with exports performing better than initially expected [31][32]. - The cyclical growth in the machinery industry is expected to continue for the next three to five years, benefiting major manufacturers [34][35]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The governance of low-price competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity are seen as critical to addressing the internal competition and ensuring sustainable economic growth [3][4][6]. - The focus on high-quality development and the regulation of local government behaviors are essential for stabilizing the market and fostering investment opportunities in various sectors [5][6][12]. - The anticipated structural investment opportunities arising from the exit of underperforming companies in the manufacturing sector could lead to a healthier market environment [12][13].

"反内卷式竞争"的投资机会 20250702 摘要 反内卷政策升级，人民日报等媒体密集发文，预示行业协会将密集发文 控价控产能，主要集中在新能源车和光伏行业，可能引发市场预期波动， 影响相关公司股价和大宗商品价格。 大宗商品价格下跌源于需求侧居民收入和地产下滑。传统行业经过前期 去产能和企业整合，供给侧大幅出清空间有限，本轮周期股反弹更多源 于市场内生需求，而非供给侧改革。 新能源车和光伏领域是反内卷政策重点，政府鼓励民营企业信心。未来 或通过控制价格实现红利，但难以复制 2015-2016 年供给侧改革驱动 的大宗商品牛市。 钢铁行业：限产政策短期影响有限，但制造业需求超预期增长，成本端 双胶价格下跌提升钢厂利润。关注电炉减产及低位库存对钢铁价格和利 润的推动作用，预计 7-8 月钢铁股将有一波反弹行情。 水泥行业：协会推动供给侧改革，要求企业严格按照设计产能生产，有 望提升标的配置性价比。今年企业具备底线思维，避免激烈价格战，确 保行业微盈利，但需求淡季和错峰执行力度不足构成不利因素。 Q&A 如何理解中央财经委关于建设全国统一大市场的政策？ 中央财经委近期强调建设全国统一大市场，旨在依法依规治理企业低价 ...