近期，瑞银发布系列研究报告，聚焦中国铁矿石、煤炭、锂三大周期行业，剖析价格驱动逻辑与投资机 会。从铁矿石因重大基建利好上涨，到煤炭行业迎来产能核查，再到锂矿权整治引发供应担忧，三大板 块均呈现鲜明的基本面变化。 铁矿石：水电站建设成催化剂，价格逆势走强 7 月22日数据显示，62%品位铁矿石青岛到岸价(CFR)报103美元/干吨，较前一日上涨2.7%。这一涨势主 要受两大因素驱动：一是中国宣布启动全球最大水电站建设，拉动钢材需求预期；二是国内钢厂利润率 保持坚挺，对铁矿石采购积极性不减。 锂：矿权整治引发供应担忧，价格有望冲击百万关口 中国GFEX碳酸锂期货9月合约近期表现抢眼，7月22日报72.8万元/吨，较一个月前的低点上涨25%，核 心驱动力是市场对供应中断的担忧。近期行业接连出现扰动：8家锂云母矿企被要求重新完善锂资源开 采文件，藏格矿业（000408）因矿权问题被当地自然资源局要求暂停锂生产，江特电机（002176）因潜 在股权变动停牌。 瑞银指出，这一系列事件源于中央对锂矿权的全面核查。合规要求包括：采矿许可证必须明确包含锂资 源、产量不得超过批准产能、若锂为主要产品需由自然资源部核发许可证、足额 ...

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for iron ore shows mixed signals, with Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures declining while Singapore iron ore futures are rising, indicating potential volatility in pricing due to contrasting market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures have experienced a decline [1] - Singapore iron ore futures have seen an increase [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Mining shipments have reached record levels, suggesting strong supply [1] - Steel mill inventories are on the rise, indicating potential oversupply or reduced demand [1] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The contrasting trends in futures prices and inventory levels raise questions about the future trajectory of iron ore prices [1]

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 104.85 1.90 6.70 纽曼粉 783 -10 32 837.9 101.70 -0.95 4.60 -31.82 PB粉 788 -10 33 836.0 104.05 -0.90 4.65 -9.08 麦克粉 770 -8 41 841.1 99.95 -1.00 4.35 -7.14 金布巴 755 -13 30 848.4 96.40 -0.95 4.40 -1.30 主流 混合粉 725 -3 42 853.8 91.50 -0.75 4.20 9.91 超特粉 666 -7 28 879.4 87.35 -0.70 4.10 -7.96 卡粉 888 -10 24 832.8 118.35 -0.90 4.15 -24.09 巴西 巴混 820 -9 31 835.2 107.20 -0.95 4.15 -4.12 主流 巴粗IOC6 778 -10 46 853.4 巴粗SSFG 783 -10 46 乌克兰精粉 877 -8 38 950.9 61%印粉 744 -13 30 卡拉拉精粉 877 -8 38 8 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in commodity futures prices has attracted widespread market attention, with polysilicon contracts reaching over 50,000 yuan/ton, marking a more than 70% increase from late June [1] - Coking coal contracts also showed strong performance, closing at over 1,100 yuan/ton, reflecting a rebound of over 50% from early June [1] - Other commodities such as industrial silicon and coke have also seen significant price increases, with industrial silicon surpassing 10,000 yuan/ton, a nearly 50% rise since early June [2] Group 2 - The central government's recent meeting emphasized addressing key challenges, including regulating low-price competition and promoting integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [2] - Analysts attribute the commodity price surge to a combination of economic recovery expectations, supply rigidity, and liquidity premiums, with both the US and China manufacturing PMIs returning to expansion territory [2] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in the second half of 2025, driven by reduced capital expenditure and a resurgence in domestic demand [3] Group 3 - Companies with market capitalizations below 10 billion yuan and institutional ratings include those in the pig farming, coal, glass, and organic silicon sectors [3] - Yaxing Chemical, with a market cap of approximately 2.644 billion yuan, specializes in chlorinated polyethylene and other chemical products [4] - Dongrui Co., a modern agricultural enterprise, operates a full industry chain in pig farming, while Beibo Co. focuses on glass deep processing equipment [4]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【7月以来煤焦矿市场反弹上涨，后续走势待政治局会议指引】7月以来，煤焦矿市场走出反弹上涨行 情，主因高层给予的宏观预期持续升温。虽钢材消费进入传统淡季，但数据显示其并未明显转弱，钢联 口径螺纹钢周度表需降幅6.25%，热卷表需降幅仅0.75%，且2025上半年钢材出口量同比增加9.2%，内 需有韧性、出口亮眼支撑行情。 截至2025年6月，国内PPI连续33个月负增长，通缩特征延续，光伏、 汽车等行业低价竞争严重，煤炭价格下行拖累PPI。7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调治理企业 低价无序竞争，此后利好消息不断，多数工业品价格上涨，估值回升。 上半年焦煤是国内商品期货跌 幅最大品种之一，7月初开启大涨模式，20个焦煤2509主力合约涨幅达40%，3个走出两连涨停板。焦煤 现货与期货共振上涨，7月1 - 23日，临汾低硫主焦煤累计涨150元/吨，6月20日后矿山库存连续4周去 库。焦炭也因焦煤成本推升和钢厂需求获2轮涨价，累计涨幅100 - 110元/吨。 上半年铁矿石估值较低， 对比2024年同期，铁水产量相近时今年PB粉价格便宜105元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy for steel is to be bullish with oscillations. [2] - Iron ore: The strategy for iron ore is to oscillate. [4] - Coking coal and coke: The strategies for coking coal and coke are both to be bullish with oscillations. [7] - Thermal coal: There is no investment strategy provided for thermal coal. [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are all showing upward trends. The supply of coal is facing disturbances, which has led to an increase in the valuation of commodities. [1][3][5][8] - The steel market is in the off - season for consumption, but the de - stocking performance is slightly better than the seasonal expectation. The plate shows strong consumption resilience. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment, and the implementation of policies and demand changes need to be followed up. [1] - In the iron ore market, under the influence of macro - policies, the market speculative sentiment has improved significantly, and the supply and demand fundamentals are good in the short term. However, in the long term, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is tight, and the demand for coke is strong. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round increase. [6] - In the thermal coal market, the price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and the market sentiment at ports is weak. The supply is expected to change, and the future supply and demand are expected to be tight. [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,264 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract was 3,431 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market increased significantly, and the spot price followed the increase. The national building materials trading volume was 126,000 tons. [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The building materials are in the off - season, with slightly increased inventory and slightly decreased production. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment. [1] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The price of the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 823.0 yuan/ton, with a 2.49% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports continued to rise, but the trading sentiment was cold. The total transaction volume of main ports was 1.233 million tons, a 30.20% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 920,000 tons, a 42.50% decrease. [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Macro - policies have increased disturbances, and the market speculative sentiment has improved. The supply has strong support, and the global shipment has increased. The demand is guaranteed as the molten iron production remains high, and the inventory at ports has not increased significantly. In the long term, the supply and demand are relatively loose. [3] - **Strategy**: The strategy for a single - side position is to oscillate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The prices of black varieties all rose. The coking coal futures had multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The second - round price increase of coke spot was implemented, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase. The price of Mongolian coking coal continued to rise. [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The supply of coking coal is tight due to restricted coal mine production. The demand for coke is strong as steel mills' profits are good and the molten iron production remains high. The trading volume of spot coking coal and coke has increased. [6] - **Strategy**: The strategies for coking coal and coke for a single - side position are both to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and some coal mines' prices have decreased. The market sentiment at ports is weak, and the trading volume is small. The price of imported coal is high, but the trading activity is low. [8] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Some coal mines have resumed production, and the supply is gradually being released. With the continuous high temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen. The market expects future supply and demand to be tight. [8] - **Strategy**: There is no investment strategy provided. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - term trends of iron ore 2509. In the short term, it is expected to rise, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile and moderately strong state. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is good, and the price will run strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2509, the short - term view is a rise, the medium - term view is a volatile and moderately strong state, and the intraday view is also a volatile and moderately strong state. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good, and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore have improved. The inventory has been depleted again. During the off - season, steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. The profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand for ore is acceptable, which strongly supports the ore price. - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has decreased as expected. Although the shipments of overseas miners have rebounded from a low level, it is difficult to increase the short - term domestic arrivals according to the shipping schedule. The overseas ore supply is low, and the domestic ore production is stable. The ore supply has shrunk in the short term. - In the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good. Coupled with the continued optimistic market sentiment, the ore price remains high and runs strongly. However, considering its relatively high valuation, a cautious and optimistic attitude should be taken towards its upward potential, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [3].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Different Iron Ore Types Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman powder: price 793, daily change 12, weekly change 46, converted to futures 848.7, import profit -29.89 [1] - PB powder: price 798, daily change 14, weekly change 47, converted to futures 847.0, import profit -6.43 [1] - Macarthur powder: price 778, daily change 13, weekly change 50, converted to futures 849.8, import profit -7.32 [1] - Jinbuba powder: price 768, daily change 11, weekly change 50, converted to futures 862.4, import profit 3.86 [1] - Mixed powder: price 728, daily change 15, weekly change 51, converted to futures 857.0, import profit 6.65 [1] - Super Special powder: price 673, daily change 14, weekly change 39, converted to futures 887.1, import profit -6.73 [1] - Carajás powder: price 898, daily change 9, weekly change 43, converted to futures 843.7, import profit -21.63 [1] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian blend: price 829, daily change 14, weekly change 44, converted to futures 844.9, import profit -2.89 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6: price 788, daily change 27, weekly change 62 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG: price 793, daily change 27, weekly change 62 [1] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian concentrate: price 885, daily change 15, weekly change 51 [1] - 61% Indian powder: price 757, daily change 11, weekly change 50 [1] - Karara concentrate: price 885, daily change 15, weekly change 51 [1] - Roy Hill powder: price 768, daily change 14, weekly change 47, converted to futures 845.4, import profit -1.69 [1] - South African powder: price 858, daily change 14, weekly change 47 [1] - 57% Indian powder: price 628, daily change 14, weekly change 39 [1] - Atlas powder: price 723, daily change 15, weekly change 51 [1] Domestic Iron Ore - Tangshan iron concentrate: price 932, daily change 19, weekly change 44, converted to futures 819.0 [1] Group 4: Exchange Contracts - i2601: price 793.5, daily change 17.0, weekly change 55.0, monthly spread 29.5, spread value 50.2, daily spread change -3.1, weekly spread change -5.0 [1] - i2605: price 770.5, daily change 15.5, weekly change 52.0, monthly spread 23.0, spread value 73.2, daily spread change -1.6, weekly spread change -2.0 [1] - i2509: price 823.0, daily change 14.0, weekly change 56.0, monthly spread -52.5, spread value 20.7, daily spread change -0.1, weekly spread change -6.0 [1] - FE01: price 101.65, daily change 2.37, weekly change 2.93, spread 1.91, spread value -30.8, daily spread change -2.2, weekly spread change 31.2 [1] - FE05: price 99.47, daily change 2.18, weekly change 2.37, spread 2.18, spread value -36.1, daily spread change -2.2, weekly spread change 32.8 [1] - FE09: price 103.56, daily change 2.75, weekly change 3.76, spread -4.09 [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

市场消息：美国发布铁矿石生产商监管豁免公告。 ...