Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated May 22, 2025, with analysts Dai Hongxu and Yu Weihan [1] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with persistent supply over - capacity pressure. The approaching of the wet season in the Southwest will increase production and inventory, while demand remains weak. Polycrystalline silicon is in a state of alternating fundamentals and delivery logic, with high - inventory pressure and weakening downstream demand [3] Price Forecast and Volatility Industrial Silicon - The price of the industrial silicon main contract faces strong resistance at 8,500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 24.6% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 75.4% [2] Polycrystalline Silicon - The polycrystalline silicon main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.91% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 89% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - To prevent inventory impairment, sell industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon futures (SI2507/PS2507) with a 60% hedging ratio, rated 3 out of 5. For high - inventory and impairment risks, sell call options with an 80% hedging ratio (rated 4) and buy out - of - the - money put options (rated 3) [2] Procurement Management - To prevent future raw material price increases, buy industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon forward contracts according to the production plan, with the hedging ratio based on the plan (rated 1). Also, sell put options (rated 2) and buy out - of - the - money call options (rated 1) [2] Core Contradictions Industrial Silicon - Supply over - capacity persists due to the approaching wet season and expected production increases in the Southwest. Demand is weak, with downstream reduction and production cut expectations [3] Polycrystalline Silicon - The market alternates between fundamentals and delivery logic. High - inventory pressure exists on the supply side, and downstream demand weakens after the photovoltaic installation rush. There may be a contradiction between the main contract's open interest and the number of warehouse receipts [3] 利多/Positive Factors Industrial Silicon - Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand. Cost reduction space is limited, providing strong cost support [4] Polycrystalline Silicon - Potential capacity integration and clearance plans or agreements may improve the industry situation. Low willingness for enterprise delivery may lead to a delivery - based market [4] 利空/Negative Factors Industrial Silicon - The approaching wet season will increase production in the Southwest. Downstream polycrystalline silicon enterprises' joint production cuts will further weaken demand. Inventory continues to accumulate [4] Polycrystalline Silicon - Failure of enterprise capacity integration and clearance, and continuous inventory accumulation with weak demand [4] Price and Volume Data Industrial Silicon - The main contract's latest price is 7,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan, a weekly decrease of 530 yuan (- 6.30%), and a yearly decrease of 36.14%. The trading volume is 208,397 lots, and the open interest is 183,690 lots [6] Polycrystalline Silicon - The main contract's latest price is 35,860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 235 yuan, a weekly decrease of 2,560 yuan (- 6.66%). The trading volume is 157,225 lots, and the open interest is 73,488 lots [6] Spot Price Data Industrial Silicon - Spot prices of different grades and regions show declines. For example, the average price of East China 553 is 8,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 1.14%) [11] Inventory Data - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 65,298 lots, down 355 lots (- 1.85%). Inventory in various delivery warehouses shows different changes, with some decreasing [19]

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓38316、乾坤期货，总持仓25019、国泰君安，总持仓23071；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓32995、国泰君安，总持仓29487、中信期货，总持仓23676； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：一德期货、持仓19422、增仓2913，中泰期货、持仓5310、增仓273，中信建投、 持仓6395、增仓253；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓13547、减仓-3755，华泰期货、持仓2286、减仓-935，国泰君安、 持仓13868、减仓-851； 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至5月22日收盘主力合约豆一2507,涨跌-0.29%,成交量12.30万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净空， 差额头寸为3117手。 豆一期货全合约总计成交19.53万手，比上一日减少8.81万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓23.55万手，比上一日减少1611手。全合约 前20席位空头持仓25.10万手，比上一日增加284手。 | | | | | 2025年5月22日豆一全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Insights - The main contract for apple futures closed at 2510 with a decrease of 1.83% as of May 22, with a trading volume of 95,900 contracts and a net short position of 7,384 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all apple futures contracts was 102,400 contracts, a decrease of 44,200 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 64,600 contracts, down by 7,485 contracts, while short positions totaled 72,200 contracts, down by 6,911 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by Dongzheng Futures (7,554 contracts), CITIC Futures (5,767 contracts), and Guotai Junan (5,668 contracts) [1][3]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (13,098 contracts), Dongzheng Futures (7,493 contracts), and CITIC Futures (6,300 contracts) [1][3]. Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Dongwu Futures (2,341 contracts, up by 681), Chang'an Futures (3,491 contracts, up by 499), and Zheshang Futures (3,534 contracts, up by 410) [1][3]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from CITIC Futures (5,767 contracts, down by 2,263), Guotai Junan (5,668 contracts, down by 1,812), and Dongzheng Futures (7,554 contracts, down by 1,743) [1][3]. Short Position Changes - The top three increases in short positions were from Huatai Futures (2,183 contracts, up by 589), Baocheng Futures (2,600 contracts, up by 524), and Huishang Futures (2,268 contracts, up by 222) [1][3]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from GF Futures (1,729 contracts, down by 1,658), CITIC Futures (6,300 contracts, down by 1,522), and Guotai Junan (13,098 contracts, down by 1,240) [1][3].

文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月22日30年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | | 会员 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | | | J | 中信期货 | 20,921 | 2,067 | 中信期货 | 17,768 | 493 | 东证期货 | 10,530 | 1,050 | | 2 | 东证期货 | 15,931 | -2,914 | 东证期货 | 8,588 | -723 | 银河期货 | 8,012 | 756 | | 3 | 国泰君安 | 15,099 | -621 | 国泰君安 | 8,398 | 536 | 中信期货 | 7,712 | 126 | | 4 | 表闻期货 | 6,702 | 101 | 平安期货 | 4,322 | 147 | 国投期货 | 6,839 | 79 | | 5 | 海通期货 | 6,688 | -255 | 华泰期货 | 4,255 ...

贵金属日报：震荡回升 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月22日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格延续回升，美国新预算法案引发交易员对赤字的担忧，美债拍卖结果不佳，美国市场 股债汇三杀，欧洲股市则震荡。最终黄金2506合约收报3316.6美元/盎司，+0.97%；美白银2507合约收 报于33.575美元/盎司，+1.21%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报778.78元/克，+2.98%；SHFE白银 2506合约收8272元/千克，+2.04%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率33.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为14.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.7%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日减1.72吨 至919.88吨；iShare ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term nickel futures market shows a weak and volatile trend. The fundamental logic of the market currently dominates, and the impact of macro - sentiment has diminished. There is an expectation of increased supply in nickel ore, and the support at the bottom is weakening. However, the nickel - iron price has stopped falling and may provide some support. The new - energy sector may experience a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariff policies at the macro level [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the China - US trade tariff agreement, the Philippine government's plan to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, the implementation of the new Indonesian resource tax on April 26, and the increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts due to the US CPI data falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the increase in ore supply at the end of the Philippine rainy season, the weakening support of the MHP - nickel sulfate link, the continued negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry, and the high inventory and lack of demand in the stainless - steel market [4]. Group 3: Specific Summaries 1. Nickel Price and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 119,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.71% and a historical percentile of 0.4% [2]. - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product price decline and inventory impairment, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels (60% hedging ratio) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio) to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future production procurement needs and concerns about rising raw - material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2]. 2. Nickel and Stainless - Steel Disk Data - **Nickel Disk**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 123,280 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as Shanghai nickel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three have increased by 0.33%. The LME nickel 3M price is 15,530 US dollars/ton, up 0.39%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.55%. The basis of the main contract remained unchanged [5]. - **Stainless - Steel Disk**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,870 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of other contracts such as stainless - steel continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three increased by 0.23% - 0.31%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 0.50%. The basis of the main contract increased by 15.28% [6]. 3. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 201,786 tons, a decrease of 312 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 980.7 tons, a decrease of 8.4 tons. The nickel - pig - iron inventory is 29,554.5 tons, an increase of 1,158 tons [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the tin price will fluctuate within a range and move upward. It suggests a short - term bullish trading strategy within the range of 263,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract is 267,730 yuan/ton, up 2,970 yuan; the 6 - 7 month contract closing price is - 50 yuan, down 30 yuan - The LME 3 - month tin price is 32,960 dollars/ton, up 61 dollars - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 29,203 lots, up 3,392 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures is 465 lots, up 649 lots - The LME tin total inventory is 2,655 tons, down 85 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 8,417 tons, down 302 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 8,070 tons, up 45 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 268,400 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,640 yuan/ton, up 3,760 yuan - The Shanghai tin main contract basis is 670 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 35.15 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. From January to May 5, the sales of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products were about 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China - Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June, and policy pre - research and reserve will be carried out regularly - Internationally, the Fed will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data, and there are concerns about rising inflation pressure. Domestically, on May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to be released in late June - Yunnan faces raw material pressure, and Jiangxi is still restricted by scrap supply. The combined operating rate of local refined tin smelting enterprises is 57.16% - The orders of solder processing enterprises are stable after the holiday, the operating rate of tinplate enterprises is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. There are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction at home and abroad [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and price indicates strong bulls, and the price has stood above the MA60 [3]

2025年5月21日工业硅主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 31,954 | -2,262 | 国泰君安期货 | 18,105 | 1,073 | 国泰君安期货 34.053 | | 256 | | 2 | 中信建投 | 18,860 | 7,199 | 方正中期 | 10,735 | -27 | 广发期货 | 10,359 | 329 | | 3 | 国泰君安期货 | 12,559 | -2,705 | 广发期货 | 8,840 | -148 | 中信期货 | 10,038 | 1,499 | | ব | 银河期货 | 11,131 | -3,251 | 中信建投 | 8,586 | 307 | 银河期货 | 8,787 | 1,792 | | 5 | 广发期货 | 10,863 | 6,278 | 中信期货 | 7,369 | 1,179 | ...

(*文中全合约指交易所公布持仓成交数据的所有合约) 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓9311、增仓2555，中信期货、持仓17275、增仓589，国泰君安、 持仓7862、增仓479；多头减仓前三名分别是：华泰期货、持仓3903、减仓-268，宏源期货、持仓2105、减仓-165，浙商期货、持 仓1110、减仓-44； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：宝城期货、持仓2890、增仓1232，银河期货、持仓7256、增仓658，东证期货、持 仓9480、增仓550；空头减仓前三名分别是：广发期货、持仓2739、减仓-126，国元期货、持仓1037、减仓-79，民生期货、持仓 1029、减仓-46。 文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年5月21日30年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | | 会员 - 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | | | ਹ | 中 ...

2025年5月21日黄金主力合约2508持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 増減 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 国泰君安 | 98,802 | 25,368 | 国泰君安 | 16,545 | 3,354 | 华泰期货 | 5,273 | 566 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 96,374 | 32,187 | 中信期货 | 15,329 | 2,156 | 中信期货 | 5,220 | 940 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 40,318 | 10,713 | 东证期货 | 10,856 | 793 | 国泰君安 | 4,932 | 720 | | 4 | 国信期货 | 34,528 | 14,289 | 中财期货 | 8,900 | 338 | 齐盛期货 | 4,845 | 1,086 | | 5 | 银河期货 | 22,256 | 8,596 | 国投期货 | 6,972 | et | 东证期货 | 3,72 ...