Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures prices have rebounded, with the current price at 49.22 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.20% increase from the opening price [1] - On December 17, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 49.02 cents, reached a high of 49.13 cents, and closed at 49.13 cents, marking a 0.49% increase [2] - The Brazilian soybean industry association (Abiove) reported that by October 2025, Brazil's factories are expected to process 4.39 million tons of soybeans, resulting in a soybean oil production of 900,000 tons [2] Group 2 - As of December 17, the Dalian Commodity Exchange had a soybean oil futures warehouse receipt of 25,964 lots, which remained unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The national first-class soybean oil transaction volume on December 17 was 9,500 tons, a decrease of 53.20% compared to the previous trading day [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-18 持续上涨驱动不足，板块延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约13925元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14978元/吨，较前一日变动+10元/吨，现货基差CF05+1053，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价15144元/吨， 较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+1219，较前一日变动+34。 近期市场资讯，16日2025/26年度印度棉花上市量折皮棉约4.2万吨，包含来自安得拉邦1.6万吨、马哈拉施特拉邦8670 吨及古吉拉特邦5950吨。据悉，16日CCI抛储约7.3万吨，前一日成交量为1972吨。具体来看，S-6竞拍底价稳定在 51500卢比/坎地，折约72.45美分/磅。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal has not changed, with high oil refinery operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the grain sales progress is expected to accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2756 yuan/ton, a change of - 21 yuan/ton (- 0.76%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2331 yuan/ton, a change of - 28 yuan/ton (- 1.19%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: As of December 12, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 94.1%, higher than 90.3% a week ago and the five - year average of 90.6%, but lower than 96.8% in the same period last year [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2206 yuan/ton, a change of - 14 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2512 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.40%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Market news: As of December 11, the sowing of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season was completed. The rainfall in southern Brazil last week relieved the pressure on corn growth. The predicted total corn output in the 2025/26 season is 1.353 billion tons, lower than the record - high output of 1.411 billion tons in the 2024/25 season [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report predicts that soybean meal may experience low - level fluctuations due to a slight decline in US soybeans, while soybean No.1 may show weak fluctuations under the influence of state reserve sales [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4090 yuan/ton during the day session, down 12 yuan (-0.29%), and 4053 yuan/ton at night, down 39 yuan (-0.95%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2756 yuan/ton during the day, down 7 yuan (-0.25%), and 2746 yuan/ton at night, down 20 yuan (-0.72%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1058.5 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.45%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301.8 dollars/short ton, down 4.5 dollars (-1.47%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot basis of soybean meal (43%) is M2605 + 370, with prices in different regions and time periods showing various changes, such as in Shandong, East China, and South China. Some prices are flat compared to the previous day, while others have small increases or decreases [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.95 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 1.35 million tons per day two days ago. The inventory was 100.92 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared to 104.55 million tons per week two days ago [1] **Macro and Industry News** - On December 17, 2025, CBOT soybean futures fell for the fourth consecutive day due to concerns about Chinese demand. Although there were new export deals announced, including 19.8 million tons sold to China and 12.5 million tons sold to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 season, the prices still closed lower [1][3] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may have a short - term rebound near 3900 ringgit, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Dalian palm oil futures may seek support around 8300 yuan and could fluctuate in the 8200 - 8300 range [1]. - Soybean oil: With uncertain biodiesel policies in the US and upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest, CBOT soybean oil is under pressure. In China, short - term supply is sufficient, but with the approaching Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports in Q1, domestic factory soybean oil inventories may decrease, and basis quotes are expected to have limited fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the decline in US crude oil prices and subsequent events, the domestic vegetable oil market was first dragged down and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to whether the rapeseed oil 05 contract can stop falling in the 8900 - 9000 yuan range [1]. Pork - Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for southern curing, the downside support is stronger. There is high uncertainty in the December - January market due to the possible impact of the epidemic and the potential entry of secondary fattening pigs. The spot market has a sentiment of holding back sales, which supports the market. The futures market rose on the news of tariff increase on European pork imports but then fell as the actual tariff was lowered and the impact of imported pork on domestic supply is limited. The futures market will continue to adjust narrowly [3]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are in a bearish pattern due to the favorable export conditions in Brazil and the expected increase in sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. In China, the sugar - pressing speed in the main producing areas has accelerated, and the futures market price is weakening due to increased supply. The market is expected to remain weak [7]. Meal - The US soybean market lacks trading highlights, and the South American new - crop soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, which suppresses the US soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern. Although there is speculation about delayed soybean clearance and a sentiment of supporting prices, the upward space is limited, and there is a risk of decline [9]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of supporting prices, and the prices in the producing areas are stable. In the north port, the supply has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. In North China, farmers sell when the price is high and hold back when the price is low. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises purchase on demand, and feed enterprises have a slightly lower willingness to pay for new orders. In the short term, the increase in corn supply will put pressure on the price, but the price decline is limited due to the grass - roots' price - supporting sentiment and the need for low - inventory enterprises to replenish stocks. The market will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Red Dates - After the acquisition, the sales area has more arrivals but lower - than - expected transactions. The price in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market is firm, while that in the Guangdong Ruyifang market has slightly declined. The futures price is weak, the spot price is stable, and the basis is strengthening. The market may be boosted by improved transactions during the consumption peak, and the downward momentum is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory level after the Spring Festival and the planting area and early - stage weather in 2026 [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose due to short - covering. The US cotton export sales showed a decrease compared to the previous week and the four - week average. The US cotton market will remain volatile. In China, although the market expects a decline in the Xinjiang planting area next year, the downstream industry is weak, with increasing finished - product inventories and deteriorating spinning enterprise profits and cash flows. However, the rigid demand for cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises remains, so the downside space of cotton prices is limited, but there is pressure above. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14050 - 14100 [21]. Eggs - Egg prices are gradually rising from a low level, leading to a sentiment of holding back sales among farmers. The number of newly - laying hens is decreasing, but the overall inventory improvement is not obvious. With favorable storage conditions due to the recent cooling, egg supply remains sufficient. The market transaction is okay, with increased buying sentiment in low - price areas and high inventory pressure in high - price areas. All links are actively clearing inventory. The egg market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation pattern [23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On December 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8460 yuan, down 0.59% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8096 yuan, down 0.93%; the basis of Y2605 was 364 yuan, up 7.69%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25964 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8380 yuan, down 0.59%; the futures price of P2605 was 8398 yuan, down 0.92%; the basis of P2605 was - 18 yuan, up 60.87%. The import cost in Guangzhou Port for May was 8848.4 yuan, down 0.77%, and the import profit was - 450 yuan, down 2.02%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 950 [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9570 yuan, down 0.83%; the futures price of O1605 was 9157 yuan, down 1.59%; the basis of O1R05 was 413 yuan, up 19.71%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 3386 to 3336 [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread was 68 yuan, down 15%; the palm oil 05 - 09 spread was 102 yuan, down 15%; the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread was 13 yuan, down 68.29%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at 80 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 520 yuan, up 3.35%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1110 yuan, down 2.63%; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1061 yuan, down 6.35% [1]. Pork - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 315, up 215% from the previous day. The price of live - hog 2605 was 11955 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the price of live - hog 2603 was 11435 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 520, up 10.34%. The main - contract position was 167381, up 6.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 823 [3]. - **Spot**: In Henan, the price was 11750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11700 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 12410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Hebei, it was 11650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 231951, up 2.48%; the weekly strip price was 18 yuan, down 0.17%; the weekly piglet price was 16.5 yuan/kg, down 2.94%; the weekly sow price was 32.46 yuan, down 0.03%; the weekly slaughter weight was 129.63 kg, down 0.15%; the weekly cumulative breeding profit was - 163 yuan, up 2.59%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 241 yuan, up 7.21%; the monthly number of fertile sows was 39900000, down 1.12% [3]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5215 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5139 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.76 cents/lb, down 0.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was 76 yuan/ton, down 3.8%. The main - contract position was 487935, up 1.35%. The number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remained unchanged at 611 and 1490 respectively [7]. - **Spot**: In Nanning, the price was 5320 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; in Kunming, it was 5245 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The Nanning basis was 181 yuan, down 12.56%; the Kunming basis was 106 yuan, down 16.54%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4094 yuan/ton, down 0.8%; outside the quota was 5188 yuan/ton, down 0.82% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1050000 tons, down 23.24%; the cumulative national sugar sales was 350000 tons, down 42.53%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 133900 tons, down 73.87%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi was 89400 tons, down 68.63%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate was 33.5%, down 24.75%; the cumulative sugar - sales rate in Guangxi was 66.77%, up 20.05%. The national industrial inventory was 700000 tons, down 7.4%; the industrial inventory in Guangxi was 44500 tons, down 80.43%; the industrial inventory in Yunnan was 12600 tons, up 110%. The sugar import volume was 750000 tons, up 38.89% [7]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 3100 yuan, down 0.32%; the futures price of M2605 was 2756 yuan, down 0.76%; the basis of M2605 was 344 yuan, up 3.3%. The spot basis quote was m2605 + 280. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in February was 38, up 140.7%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 23830 [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 2410 yuan, up 0.42%; the futures price of RM2605 was 2331 yuan, down 1.19%; the basis of RM2605 was 79 yuan, up 92.68%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in January was 476, down 7.57%. The number of warehouse receipts was 0 [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4090 yuan, unchanged; the basis was - 150 yuan, unchanged. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3739 yuan, down 1.16%; the basis was 211 yuan, up 26.35%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 17034 [9]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread was - 110 yuan, down 10%; the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan, down 25.45%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.73, down 0.27%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.84, up 0.12%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 690 yuan, down 2.82%; the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 425 yuan, up 1.67% [9]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 was 2206 yuan, down 0.63%; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan, down 0.44%; the basis was 74 yuan, up 5.71%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 33 yuan, down 83.33%. The bulk grain price in Shekou was 2410 yuan, down 0.41%. The north - south trade profit was 30 yuan, unchanged. The CIF price was 2120 yuan, down 0.1%; the import profit was 290 yuan, down 2.65%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 421, down 59.48%. The number of warehouses decreased from 2146100 to 2098833, down 2.2%. The number of warehouse receipts was 54440, down 0.87% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2512 yuan, up 0.4%. The spot price in Changchun was 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang was 2800 yuan, unchanged. The basis was 78 yuan, down 11.36%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 35 yuan, up 18.6%. The 01 - contract spread between starch and corn was 306 yuan, up 8.51%. The profit of Shandong starch enterprises was - 8 yuan, down 233.33%. The number of warehouses decreased from 287376 to 286198, down 0.41%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2500 [10]. Red Dates - **Futures**: The price of red dates 2601 was 8830 yuan, unchanged; the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8915 yuan, down 0.56%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9235 yuan, down 0.48%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 85 yuan, up 37.04%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 320 yuan, down 1.59%. The position was 175737, up 1.68%. The number of warehouse receipts was 982, up 11.21%; the effective forecast was 1145, up 0.97%; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 2127, up 5.45% [14]. - **Spot**: The price of top - grade red dates in Cangzhou was 9650 yuan, down 0.21%; the price of first - grade red dates was 8600 yuan, unchanged; the price of second - grade red dates was 7200 yuan, unchanged. The basis of top - grade red dates to the main contract was 135 yuan, up 28.57%; the basis of first - grade red dates to the main contract was 885 yuan, up 5.99% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13925 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13930 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 63.46 cents/lb, up 0.52%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 200%. The main - contract position was 731267, up 2.48%. The number of warehouse receipts was 3482, up 8.85%; the effective forecast was 3898, down 3.08% [21]. - **Spot**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 1

期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场外盘承压、内盘震荡，核心矛盾在于全球供应宽松预期与国内成本支撑的博 弈。美豆期价在触及七周新低后小幅反弹，但整体情绪仍受制于供应压力。一方面，中国对美国大豆 的采购步伐不及市场预期；另一方面，南美新季大豆丰产前景明确，巴西即将开始收割，全球大豆供 应宽松格局未改，限制了美豆的反弹空间。国内市场则表现出"近强远弱"的分化特征。高企的库存 和疲软的需求压制了上行空间。短期豆粕期价震荡偏弱运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 参考 ...

2025年12月18日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：抛储影响，偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251218 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 2 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a downward trend in agricultural commodity prices, with corn, wheat, and soybean futures all experiencing declines on December 16 [1][2] - The March 2026 corn contract closed at $4.37 per bushel, down 3.25 cents or 0.74% from the previous trading day [1] - The March 2026 wheat contract closed at $5.10 per bushel, down 11.25 cents or 2.16% from the previous trading day [1] - The January 2026 soybean contract closed at $10.63 per bushel, down 9 cents or 0.84% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic weakness is impacting the agricultural market, with the U.S. non-farm payrolls recording an increase of 64,000 jobs and the unemployment rate reaching a four-year high, putting pressure on stock and energy markets [1] - WTI crude oil prices hit a seven-month low at $55.45 per barrel, reflecting the overall negative market sentiment [1] - The agricultural market is expected to experience increased volatility for the remainder of December, with long-term risks remaining bearish unless consistent drought and high temperatures occur in Argentina and southern Brazil in January [2] - The March soybean futures are anticipated to test the range of $10.30 to $10.40 per ounce, while corn futures may test $4.25 to $4.30 per ounce [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Red Dates**: The "weak reality" of high inventory and weak consumption of red date old stocks, combined with the new - season's production cut being less than market expectations, has led to a loosening of cost support. The recent market in the sales area shows more arrivals and less shipments, with no obvious peak - season characteristics. The short - term red date market will experience wide - range oscillations at low levels. Future attention should be on the absolute inventory level after the Spring Festival, the planting area in 2026, and early - stage weather forecasts [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot prices are stable, and with the increasing demand for curing meat in the South, the downward - support capacity has strengthened. The market from December to January is highly uncertain. On one hand, the recent increase in the epidemic may suppress the spot market; on the other hand, the second - round fattening may support prices. Although the monthly slaughter volume has increased month - on - month, it is lower than market expectations. The spot market is expected to continue to bottom out. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, the futures market lacks the driving force for continuous upward movement. Attention should be paid to whether the outbreak of the epidemic will lead to early slaughter and over - draw the supply after the New Year [4]. - **Meal Products**: The US soybeans lack trading highlights, and China's demand has been fully traded. South American new - season soybeans are being planted smoothly with good hydro - thermal conditions, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strong. Early - sown soybeans will be listed in January, continuously suppressing US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose pattern, and with the implementation of auctions, the space for speculating on supply shortages has narrowed. Recently, the market has been speculating about the extension of soybean customs clearance time, and the auction results are good, providing support for the 1 - 5 positive spread. In the short term, there is a sentiment of holding up prices in the spot market, but the spot pressure still exists. There is no driving force for unilateral trading, and the room for the positive spread to continue to strengthen is limited. Attention should be paid to the risk of a decline [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: In the Northeast, the grass - roots have a sentiment of holding up prices, and the prices in the production areas are relatively stable. Traders are more willing to sell due to the decline in futures prices, and the volume of grain arriving at the northern ports has increased, with prices slightly decreasing. Attention should be paid to the continuity of the arrival of grain at the northern ports. In North China, the sale of grain changes with price fluctuations, and the number of arriving vehicles is acceptable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is increasing slowly, and they purchase on demand. The demand of feed enterprises has increased, and the procurement of forward orders has begun to increase. In the short term, the increase in the volume of grain on the market has led to a weakening of the futures market. However, the increase in the volume of grain is limited, the grass - roots sentiment of holding up prices still exists, the continuity of the increase in the volume of grain on the market may not be maintained, and enterprises with low inventory still need to replenish their stocks, so the downward range is limited. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of grain sales and the inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: For palm oil, due to the potential concerns of an increase in year - end inventory to 2.9 million tons and a slowdown in exports, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market has been oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to whether the Malaysian palm oil can stop falling and rebound after finding support around Friday. The overall view is that the near - term market is weak and the long - term market is strong. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market has been oscillating downward, with a short - term downward trend breaking through the previous support level. Affected by the decline of Malaysian palm oil, the Dalian palm oil still has the pressure to weaken further, seeking support in the range of 8,200 - 8,300 yuan. For soybean oil, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) next year. Processors cannot obtain clear information in the short term, which may reduce the enthusiasm for large - scale production of biodiesel and the industrial consumption of US soybean oil, dragging down the CBOT soybean oil. In the domestic market, the National Grain and Oil Trading Center plans to auction 513,800 tons of imported soybeans, with an actual transaction of 323,100 tons. The average transaction price is 3,852.08 yuan/ton, and the transaction ratio is 62.88%. However, the amount of soybeans released is currently limited. As January approaches, the Spring Festival stocking will soon start, and the factory's soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to decrease, supporting the basis quotation. For rapeseed oil, the postponement of the final decision on the 2026 RVO by the EPA has led to a decline in the US soybean oil futures price, dragging down the domestic vegetable oil market, including rapeseed oil. The market is still digesting the news of COFCO's purchase of Canadian rapeseed, increasing concerns about future supply pressure. The market sentiment is weak, and the rapeseed oil price has fallen below the previous low. Attention should be paid to the support at 9,000 yuan for the 05 contract [12]. - **Sugar**: The ICE raw sugar futures closed down because the weather in Brazil is favorable for the growth of sugarcane in the next season. Although the production in Brazil has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, the expectation of a loose supply remains. Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, and its impact on the market is limited. Overall, the loose supply outlook is still an important factor restricting the rebound of raw sugar prices, and the price will maintain a bearish pattern. In the domestic market, the sugar - making rhythm in the main production areas has accelerated. Affected by the increasing supply, the futures market price has weakened, and sugar - making groups have slightly lowered their prices. The new sugar has entered the market, but the market trading atmosphere is still tepid, and the spot trading is average. Currently lacking positive factors, the price has no power to rebound and is expected to remain weak [14]. - **Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures closed down due to weak exports and the prospect of increased supply. The US cotton export sales have decreased. The overall US cotton market will maintain an oscillating trend. In the domestic market, the market expects a decline in the planting area in Xinjiang next year, with an optimistic long - term outlook. However, the downstream industry is weak, with the inventory of downstream finished products continuing to accumulate, and the profit and cash flow of textile enterprises gradually deteriorating. However, the overall pressure on the downstream industry is still acceptable, and textile enterprises have a certain resilience in their rigid demand for cotton raw materials. There is still limited downward space for cotton prices, but the constraints on cotton prices are increasing, and there is certain pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 14,050 - 14,100 [17]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices have shown a trend of gradual recovery from a low level. Affected by this, farmers generally have a sentiment of holding back sales, resulting in a continuous decrease in the slaughter volume of old hens. Combining with the data on the replenishment of chicken seedlings in the early stage, it can be inferred that the number of newly - laying hens is also decreasing, but the overall improvement in inventory is not obvious. Coupled with the recent cooling, which is conducive to egg storage, the supply of eggs is still relatively sufficient. Currently, the positive factors in the market are not strong, and the sales in high - price areas are slow, with prices falling. The expectation of price increases in low - price markets has increased, and the trading volume has improved. The sales speed varies in different markets, and prices are adjusted stably. According to the latest survey data of Mysteel's egg team, on December 16, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.94 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous day, a decrease of 1.05%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.31 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.24%. The trading link mainly focuses on selling goods, and the sales in some high - price areas are slightly slow. However, the market sentiment of expecting price increases has increased, stimulating the sentiment of holding back sales in some production areas and the enthusiasm of terminal buyers to replenish stocks. Considering the sufficient supply of eggs, it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Red Dates - **Futures Prices**: The prices of red date 2601, 2605 (main contract), and 2609 have all decreased, with decreases of 1.62%, 0.66%, and 0.59% respectively. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 170.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates have decreased by 0.92%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively. The basis of special - grade and first - grade red dates in Cangzhou relative to the main contract has decreased by 22.22% and 7.74% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: The position decreased by 1.89%, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the effective forecast increased by 47.46%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 22.09% [1]. Live Pigs - **Futures Prices**: The main - contract basis decreased by 31.03%, the price of live pig 2605 increased by 0.21%, the price of live pig 2603 increased by 0.40%, and the 3 - 5 spread increased by 3.33%. The main - contract position increased by 1.29%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Henan remained unchanged, those in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton, those in Sichuan remained unchanged, those in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan/ton, those in Guangdong remained unchanged, those in Hunan increased by 50 yuan/ton, and those in Hebei decreased by 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.33%, the weekly carcass price remained unchanged, the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.94%, the weekly sow price decreased by 0.03%, the weekly slaughter weight decreased by 0.15%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 2.59%, the weekly purchased - piglet profit increased by 7.21%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [4]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal increased by 0.32%, the price of M2605 increased by 0.69%, the basis of M2605 decreased by 2.63%, the basis quotation of Jiangsu spot decreased, the import crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments decreased by 22.9%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 0.83%, the price of RM2605 increased by 0.77%, the basis of RM2605 decreased by 48.10%, the import crushing profit of Canadian January shipments increased by 1.18%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.97%, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 21.05%. The price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.63%, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 16.78%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal increased by 6.54%, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 3.77%, the oil - meal ratio of spot decreased by 0.79%, the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 1.53%, the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 4.41%, and the 2605 price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 0.24% [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 and the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.36% and 1.29% respectively, the basis decreased by 23.91%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.50%, the bulk grain price in Shekou decreased by 0.41%, the north - south trade profit increased by 105.26%, the CIF price decreased by 0.86%, the import profit increased by 2.94%, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 34.16%, the position decreased by 0.86%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2.34% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.44%, the spot prices in Changchun and Weifang remained unchanged, the basis increased by 14.29%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.38%, the 01 contract price difference between starch and corn decreased by 1.05%, the starch profit in Shandong decreased by 53.85%, the position increased by 0.22%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.47%, the price of Y2605 decreased by 0.61%, the basis increased by 3.05%, the basis quotation remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.82%, the price of P2605 decreased by 0.96%, the basis increased by 20.69%, the basis quotation increased, the import cost of Guangzhou Port in May decreased by 0.99%, the import profit increased by 1.68%, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 2.23%, the price of OI605 decreased by 1.33%, the basis decreased by 21.59%, the basis quotation remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2.02% [12]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean oil decreased by 16.67%, the 05 - 09 spread of palm oil decreased by 15.49%, the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 14.58%, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 2.54%, the 2601 price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 2.54%, the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 13.64%, and the 2601 price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 6.21% [12]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 1.49%, the price of sugar 2605 decreased by 1.42%, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.54%, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.95%, the main - contract position increased by 12.09%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the effective forecast remained unchanged [14]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased by 0.37% and 0.66% respectively. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased by 35.29% and 44.32% respectively. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) decreased by 0.86%, the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) decreased by 0.87%, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) and Nanning decreased by 1.34%, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) and Nanning decreased by 31.33% [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 23.24%, the cumulative national sugar sales decreased by 42.53%, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased by 73.87%, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 68.63%, the national cumulative sugar sales rate decreased by 24.75%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 20.05%, the national industrial inventory decreased by 7.40%, the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 80.43%, the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 110.00%, and the sugar import volume increased by 38.89% [14]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 260

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall price of soybean meal is mainly in a state of oscillatory operation due to the unchanged supply - demand pattern, high oil - mill operating rates, continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal, and the lack of sudden news stimuli after policy stabilization. Attention should be paid to the import situation of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - For corn, the supply in the domestic market is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The market situation also needs to focus on the new - season corn acquisition situation [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2777 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.77% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3050 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3060 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2570 yuan/ton [1] - **Corn and Corn Starch** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2502 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.44% [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Recent Market News - **Soybean** - US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 79.6 tons, lower than the market forecast of 100 - 125 tons [2] - As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [2] - Brazil exported 165 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 16.5 tons, a 73% increase from the daily average export volume in December 2024 [2] - **Corn** - US corn export inspection volume in the week ending December 11, 2025, was 158.3 tons, within the market forecast range of 100 - 160 tons [4] - Brazil exported 290.9 tons of corn in the first two weeks of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 29.1 tons, a significant increase compared to December 2024 [4] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Soybean Meal** - The supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with high oil - mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. The soybean meal price is mainly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [3] - **Corn** - In the domestic market, the supply is temporarily tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is strong. The new - season corn acquisition situation needs attention [6] 3.4 Strategy - The strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [4][7]