1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has rebounded, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may continue to be weak. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4463 - 4515 [4][6]. - The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has weakened, and the overall cost has decreased. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [6]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positives**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [10]. - **Likely Negatives**: Rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.83%, with no month - on - month change. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 345,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and the production of ethylene method enterprises was 134,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18%. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 49.19%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.07%, with no change month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.03%, with no change month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may continue to be weak [4]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 848.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 515.89 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2091.15 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - On November 26, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 41 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 315,441 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.14%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 240,791 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 74,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.04%. The social inventory was 526,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85%, showing a neutral situation [6]. 3.2.6 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [6]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, spreads, inventories, operating rates, profits, and costs of different PVC varieties and contracts [14]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It includes the basis trend, trading volume, price trend, position change trend, and spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures [16][19][22]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It involves the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of chlor - alkali in Shandong [25][28][30][33]. 3.5.2 PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also involves real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][45][53]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouse inventory, ethylene method factory warehouse inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [57]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread, and vinyl chloride import spread [60]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [62].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic outlook is mixed, with most Fed districts reporting flat economic activity, some facing a risk of slowdown, and others showing slight growth or decline [8]. - The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - to long - term [11][13]. - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations [11]. - In the agricultural sector, different products have different trends, such as cotton in low - level oscillations, sugar under supply pressure, and eggs with high inventory and limited upside potential [26][28][29]. - In the energy and chemical industry, oil prices are in a long - term downward trend, and various products' prices follow different factors such as geopolitical events and supply - demand relationships [37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - information - China and the EU discussed semiconductor and other economic and trade issues, aiming to restore the semiconductor supply chain [6]. - Vanke faced a "double - kill" in stocks and bonds, and a bond展期 meeting will be held [6]. - Six departments issued a plan to boost consumer goods consumption, targeting specific consumption areas by 2027 [6]. - The Chinese non - ferrous metals association opposed zero or negative processing fees in copper smelting and managed copper smelting capacity [7]. - Treasury companies that hoarded cryptocurrencies suffered a "double - kill" in stock and coin prices [7]. - NVIDIA denied accounting fraud accusations [7]. - The Fed's economic activity was mostly flat, with some areas showing decline or growth, and the risk of slowdown increased [8]. - US economic data showed mixed results, including changes in jobless claims, durable goods orders [8][9]. - Japan's central bank may raise interest rates [8]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market had mixed performance, with military stocks falling and some concepts rising. Vanke's situation affected the market [10]. Treasury Futures - The bond market is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations. Although there were sharp fluctuations, the short - term nature was high, considering factors like capital and fundamentals [11]. Steel and Ore - Short - term: expected to be volatile; Medium - to long - term: bearish. Demand for building materials is weak, while demand for some plate products is okay. Supply may decline, and inventory is relatively high. Valuation shows that steel prices are likely to be weak [11][12][13]. Agriculture Cotton - Under the influence of large supply pressure and weak demand, it is in low - level oscillations, with high costs providing some support [26]. Sugar - Facing supply pressure, the price is under downward pressure, but cost provides a limit. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Eggs - The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds with caution. High inventory and weak consumption are the main factors, but there are positive expectations for the long - term [29][30]. Apples - Expected to be slightly bullish. The acquisition season has ended, and the market is now in the outbound stage. Prices are stable, and inventory and consumption need attention [31]. Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current rise is due to "supply - demand mismatch," and there may be a correction in the spot price [33]. Red Dates - Temporarily wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price is weak [34]. Pigs - In the short - term, supply pressure increases, and the price is weak. In the long - term, the decline in the number of sows is positive for prices [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - In a long - term downward trend, it is advisable to short on rallies. Geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations affect the price [37]. Fuel Oil - The price fluctuates with the oil price. Supply is loose, and demand is flat. Geopolitical and macro factors are the main drivers [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile due to large supply and weak demand, but production losses may provide some support [40]. Rubber - The price difference between ru and nr may widen. Pay attention to Southeast Asian weather and raw material supply [41]. Synthetic Rubber - The short - term price is weak. It is advisable to hold short - call strategies or short on rallies [42]. Methanol - Near - month contracts: temporarily weak and volatile; Far - month contracts: turn to a volatile trend. Pay attention to inventory and import arrivals [43][44]. Caustic Soda - Keep a volatile mindset. The spot price is weakening, and the futures price is controlled by bears [45]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase. Pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - The price is adjusting strongly due to improved sentiment and supply - demand structure. Different products in the chain have different supply - demand situations [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The short - term bullish factors are fully realized, and the price may turn weak. It is affected by supply, demand, and oil price trends [48]. Paper Pulp - Enter a range - bound stage. It is advisable to wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, and supply and demand are in a weak balance [49][50]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish. The spot price is under pressure, and the market is expected to be in a weak supply - demand balance [51]. Urea - The spot price may be bullish, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. Keep a wide - range volatile mindset [52]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Hold short positions at high levels. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is affected by macro and inventory factors [18]. Lead - Hold short positions cautiously. The price is falling, and the inventory is decreasing. Import and export data show certain trends [19][20][21]. Lithium Carbonate - In wide - range fluctuations. The short - term is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and long - term optimistic expectations [22]. Industrial Silicon - Continue to oscillate. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the adjustment space is limited [23]. Polysilicon - Continue to oscillate. Buy on dips. The supply - demand contradiction is weaker than the policy expectation contradiction [24].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Qide New Materials, has indicated that its current main products, high-performance modified plastics (such as nylon), are not yet applied in 3D printing technology. However, the company possesses the technical potential to develop materials specifically for 3D printing due to its strong expertise in polymer material modification [1]. Group 1 - The company is actively monitoring downstream technological trends and customer demands to promote the technical extension and innovation of related materials in the future [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, falling prices from Formosa Plastics in December, and the decline in futures prices of coking coal, despite some positive factors like the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased slightly by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has continued to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India has terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled, and last week's export orders increased month - on - month. However, Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has lowered its December quotes by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are coming on - stream, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased its positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,466 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,501 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,489 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.42%. The position volume decreased by 33,859 lots to 1,227,649 lots [2] Basis - On November 26th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,445 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,489 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 44 yuan/ton, weakening by 13 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply - The maintenance of some devices such as Shandong Xinfafa has ended. The PVC operating rate has increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%. New production capacities including Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua are in production or trial - run stages [4] Demand - The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion areas of real estate all decreased significantly year - on - year. The comprehensive improvement of the real estate market still takes time. As of the week of November 23rd, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.56% month - on - month but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] Inventory - As of the week of November 20th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 1.0326 million tons, which was 23.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and was still at a high level [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The L2601 contract of polyethylene fell 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of Zhongtianhechuang's shutdown continued, and new maintenance units were added in Wanhua Chemical, Zhongying Petrochemical, and Jilin Petrochemical, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, with a slight decline in the agricultural film operating rate and a small increase in the packaging film operating rate. Factory and social inventories decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not significant. Oil - based and coal - based profits remained in a theoretical loss state. This week, the Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical units are planned for maintenance, while the Zhongying Petrochemical, Zhongtianhechuang, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical units are scheduled to restart, so PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month, with relatively high supply. The demand center of greenhouse films has shifted south, and southern orders support the high operating rate of agricultural film enterprises; the orders for packaging films have decreased, and the operating rate is expected to decline. In terms of cost, due to statements from US and Ukrainian officials indicating that Ukraine has in principle agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, international oil prices closed lower yesterday. In the short term, the situation of supply exceeding demand for LLDPE may continue, with limited cost - side support, and L2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 6,680 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 1 - month contract closed at 6,707 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 5 - month contract closed at 6,768 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan; the 9 - month contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The trading volume was 396,126 lots, an increase of 148,413 lots, and the open interest was 497,599 lots, an increase of 9,240 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 61, down 3. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 517,178 lots, an increase of 15,973 lots; the short positions were 619,508 lots, an increase of 23,786 lots; the net long positions were - 102,330 lots, a decrease of 7,813 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6,865.22 yuan/ton, down 22.17 yuan; in East China, it was 7,092.38 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The basis was 158.22, an increase of 32.83 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore was 60.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.27 US dollars; the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 560.88 US dollars/ton, down 1.75 US dollars. The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 731 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging films was 50.93%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points; for pipes, it was 32%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points; for agricultural films, it was 49.91%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 8.45%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.87%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options for polyethylene was 13.24%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 14th to 20th, China's total polyethylene production was 670,300 tons, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 82.71%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.2% from the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.1% from the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.5% from the previous period. As of November 26th, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 454,000 tons, a decrease of 9.80% from the previous period; as of November 21st, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous period. From November 15th to 21st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 0.41% month - on - month to 7,285 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 3.86 yuan/ton to - 409.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.06% month - on - month to 7,047 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 75.57 yuan/ton to - 107 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Provincial Government has issued a plan to establish an integrated off-market trading platform for bulk commodities, aiming to enhance resource allocation and trading efficiency in the region [1] Group 1: Trading Platform Development - The plan includes the construction of a spot trading platform, which will be developed in phases based on the integration of existing platforms like the Zhejiang International Oil and Gas Trading Center [1] - The platform will operate under a unified leadership, structure, accounts, operations, standards, and team [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Product Focus - There is an emphasis on increasing trading volume on the spot trading platform, particularly focusing on refined oil and chemical bulk commodities [1] - The platform will also expand its business scope to include steel, plastics, and rubber, which are identified as advantageous products [1] Group 3: Encouragement for Industry Leaders - Leading enterprises in the petrochemical sector are encouraged to establish sales zones on the spot trading platform [1] - The plan includes exploring cooperation on national reserve iron ore rotation business, subject to approval from relevant national authorities [1] Group 4: Integration with Futures Market - The initiative aims to explore integrated development between spot and futures markets [1] - The establishment of a basis quotation area on the spot trading platform is proposed, along with the introduction of real-time market data from futures exchanges [1] - There is a focus on expanding the coverage and scale of delivery warehouses for key trading varieties in collaboration with futures exchanges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Provincial Government has issued a plan to enhance the integration of spot and futures markets for bulk commodities, aiming to establish a resource allocation hub for these commodities [1] Group 1: Market Development - The plan emphasizes the continuous growth of trading volume on spot trading platforms [1] - It aims to consolidate trading segments centered around refined oil and chemical bulk commodities [1] - The initiative includes regular online trading activities [1] Group 2: Business Expansion - The focus will be on expanding business scope in advantageous varieties such as steel, plastics, and rubber [1] - Leading enterprises in the petrochemical sector are encouraged to establish sales zones on spot trading platforms [1] - The plan also explores the potential for cooperation in the rotation of national reserves of iron ore, subject to approval from relevant national authorities [1]