展望未来，金瑞期货表示，短期贵金属价格仍将保持偏强，但预计市场波动将同步放大，建议维持逢低 做多策略。 北京时间10月9日，国际现货白银价格加速上涨，历史首次突破50美元/盎司。Wind数据显示，截至北京 时间20:47，伦敦现货白银涨超2%，最高触及50.159美元/盎司。 金瑞期货表示，今日金银价格上涨主要是由两个因素驱动。一是美联储降息预期持续发酵。美联储公布 的9月议息会议纪要显示，联储官员多数支持今年四季度继续降息。降息预期的落地，将会继续推动美 元与美债利率的走弱，利好金银价格。二是近期美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡、国际贸易局势仍存不确 定性、美联储独立性受到挑战、多国主权债务问题恶化等因素推动避险情绪的发酵，同样对贵金属价格 构成利好。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the significance of the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data release for gold trading, highlighting its impact on market volatility and investment strategies [1][2]. Pre-NFP Strategies - Understanding the relationship between NFP data and gold prices is crucial; weaker NFP data typically leads to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices, while stronger data has the opposite effect [2]. - The company provides a "NFP Preview" report on its website before the data release, outlining expected figures and potential gold price movements to help investors set psychological expectations [2]. - Establishing a clear "bottom line" strategy is essential, including defining maximum acceptable losses and response strategies for sudden market reversals [2]. - The company's app offers convenient order placement features, allowing investors to set buy and sell orders based on predicted price ranges, starting from small trade sizes of 0.01 lots [2]. During NFP Release - The first 30 minutes post-NFP release, referred to as the "golden 30 minutes," often sees significant price fluctuations, making quick trading responses vital for profit locking [4]. - The trading system utilized by the company boasts an order execution delay of less than 0.1 seconds, maintaining a high order matching success rate of 99.8% even during volatile market conditions [4]. - Strict adherence to stop-loss and take-profit rules is emphasized, with the first executed order after data release being critical for trading decisions [4]. Post-NFP Analysis - After the NFP event, the company offers trading summary services, including NFP reviews, to help investors analyze their performance and prepare for future events [5]. - Historical data indicates that when NFP job additions fall below market expectations by 50,000 or more, gold prices tend to rise by an average of $18.6 within four hours post-release; conversely, if job additions exceed expectations by the same margin, gold prices typically drop by an average of $14.3 [5]. Investment Philosophy - The company advocates for transforming complex market fluctuations into clear execution steps, positioning NFP nights as opportunities rather than risks [6]. - The core investment philosophy emphasizes converting uncertainty into manageable operational systems, underscoring the importance of choosing a reliable trading platform for gold investments [6].

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has surpassed $4,010 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest despite high stock market levels [1][3] - The BullionVault Gold Investor Index rose to 54.9, the highest since June, reflecting increased investor sentiment [1][3] Group 1: Investor Behavior - There has been a significant increase in new accounts at BullionVault, with first-time gold investors rising by 87.6% month-over-month and 213.5% year-over-year [3] - The current demand for gold is driven by retail investors and a fear of missing out (FOMO), as gold serves as a risk diversification tool in a high stock market [4][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gold market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with strong fundamentals supporting prices, including a dovish Federal Reserve stance and increased central bank purchases [4][5] - Factors that could drive gold prices higher include economic weakness prompting a more dovish Fed, concerns over government deficits, and geopolitical tensions [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - For gold prices to stabilize above $4,000 or potentially reach $5,000, sustained demand beyond retail investors is necessary [6] - Long-term bullish sentiment on gold is supported by central bank purchases, monetary expansion, and emerging investment demand [6][7] - Ray Dalio suggests allocating up to 15% of investment portfolios to gold, higher than the typical recommendation of 5% to 10% [6][7]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly due to increasing uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, reaching a new historical high of $3,940 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] - The phenomenon of "gold-plated FOMO" (fear of missing out) is driving investors to include gold in their portfolios amid concerns over inflation risks [2] Market Dynamics - The ongoing trade war initiated by former President Trump has led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to its record high prices this year [3] - In September alone, gold prices increased by nearly 12%, marking the largest monthly gain since 2011, as central banks and various types of investors have been accumulating gold [3] - The inflow of funds into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a significant catalyst for the price increase, with net inflows reaching $13.6 billion over the past four weeks and over $60 billion year-to-date, setting a new record [4] Investment Trends - The total amount of gold held by ETFs has surpassed 3,800 tons, nearing the peak levels seen during the COVID-19 market sell-off [5] - Analysts suggest a shift in investor behavior, with a growing trend of long-term allocation to precious metals, akin to traditional stock and bond investments [5] - A recent survey indicated that fund managers currently allocate only 2% to gold, but a shift to a "60/20/20" asset allocation model could lead to trillions of dollars flowing into the gold market [5] Economic Factors - The current state of the bond market, characterized by record sovereign debt issuance, has diminished the appeal of fixed-income assets, making gold a more attractive option for portfolio diversification [7] - Concerns over policymakers potentially tolerating inflation rates above target levels to manage record sovereign debt are also driving interest in gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [7] - The prevailing sentiment in the market is to prepare for scenarios where the Federal Reserve may lose its independence, further emphasizing the need for gold as a risk management tool [8]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly due to increasing uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations of interest rate cuts, reaching a new historical high of $3,940 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1] - The phenomenon of "gold-plated FOMO" (fear of missing out) is driving investors to include gold in their portfolios amid concerns over inflation risks [2] Market Dynamics - The ongoing trade war initiated by former President Trump has led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to its record highs this year [3] - In September alone, gold prices rose nearly 12%, marking the largest monthly increase since 2011, as central banks and various types of investors have significantly increased their gold purchases [3] - The inflow of funds into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a key catalyst for the price surge, with net inflows reaching $13.6 billion over the past four weeks and exceeding $60 billion for the year, setting a new record [4] Investment Trends - The total amount of gold held by ETFs has surpassed 3,800 tons, nearing levels seen during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off [5] - Analysts suggest a shift in investor behavior, with a growing trend of long-term allocation to precious metals, akin to traditional stock and bond investments [5] - A recent survey indicated that fund managers currently allocate only 2% to gold, but a shift to a "60/20/20" asset allocation model could lead to trillions of dollars flowing into the gold market [5] Economic Factors - The current state of the bond market, characterized by record sovereign debt issuance, has diminished the appeal of fixed-income assets, making gold a more attractive diversifying asset [7] - Concerns that policymakers may tolerate inflation rates above target levels to manage record sovereign debt levels are also driving interest in gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [7] - The prevailing sentiment is that while there is a desire to avoid scenarios where the Federal Reserve loses its independence, preparations for such outcomes are being made [8]

Core Insights - The international gold price has reached its highest level in 45 years, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak from January 1980, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][3] - Goldman Sachs reports extreme bullish sentiment in the gold market, with a long-to-short position ratio of 8:1, the highest in a decade, reflecting a re-evaluation of systemic risks [3][5] - Major financial institutions and central banks are increasing their gold holdings, with global central bank purchases averaging over 1,000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, signaling a strategic shift towards gold as a reserve asset [5][7] Market Dynamics - The weakening of the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness, with national debt exceeding $37 trillion and a projected federal deficit of $1.8 trillion for FY2025, has made gold an attractive alternative [5] - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China and India, are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with China's holdings rising nearly 30% over three years [5][7] - The macroeconomic environment mirrors the 1970s, with persistent core inflation and geopolitical tensions, leading to heightened concerns about stagflation and financial instability [5][7] Investment Trends - The historical high in gold prices is prompting a shift in asset allocation strategies, moving away from traditional "stocks + bonds" portfolios [7] - There is a notable increase in retail participation in gold through ETFs and bank gold accumulation, with a reported 18% year-on-year growth in domestic bank gold accumulation transactions [7] - The correlation between gold and traditional assets like the U.S. dollar and treasury bonds is weakening, indicating a return to gold's role as a hedge [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international spot gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3900 per ounce, is primarily driven by market reactions to potential U.S. government shutdowns and broader economic factors such as global monetary easing and geopolitical tensions [4][5]. Market Reactions - On September 30, gold prices experienced a dramatic drop to $3800, followed by a rapid recovery to $3900, marking a $100 increase in a single day, which reflects heightened market volatility and investor sentiment [1][4]. - The anticipation of a U.S. government shutdown has significantly influenced gold prices, with historical trends indicating that gold typically rises before such events [4][5]. Economic Factors - The ongoing global economic conditions, including monetary easing and geopolitical issues, are contributing to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold, with the potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October being a key factor [5][6]. - The impact of a government shutdown on the U.S. GDP is notable, with estimates suggesting a 0.2% decrease for each week of shutdown, which could further support gold prices if the shutdown extends beyond a few days [4][5]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the duration of the potential government shutdown, as it will influence short-term gold price movements. A quick resolution could lead to volatility, while a prolonged shutdown may sustain upward pressure on gold prices [5][7]. - For long-term investors, the current environment presents opportunities, but caution is advised for short-term traders due to the inherent risks associated with market fluctuations [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market is experiencing a historic opportunity, with international gold prices reaching a record high of $3707 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September [1] - The three main factors supporting the continued rise in gold prices are the shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, ongoing geopolitical risks, and increasing demand for gold from global central banks [2] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 4%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024, which has historically led to an increase in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Central banks are becoming net buyers of gold, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 74.02 million ounces as of August 2025, marking a continuous increase for ten months [5] - In the second quarter, global central banks collectively added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, indicating a structural demand shift that differs from short-term speculative buying [5] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains in an upward trend, and any significant pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity, supported by the Fed's rate cut cycle and geopolitical uncertainties [6] Group 3 - Several Wall Street institutions have raised their 2026 gold price forecasts to $4000 per ounce, highlighting the historic opportunity in the gold market [7] - A promotional activity by a leading precious metals company offers a reduced trading cost of $26 per lot for investors who deposit $3000, facilitating easier market entry [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The US government shutdown crisis and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices. Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October has decreased and the number of rate cuts in 2026 has been reduced from 3 to 2 due to robust economic and employment data, the expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Palestine - Israel, and continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries may support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Domestic Gold**: On September 29, 2025, the futures closing price was 866.52 yuan/g, an increase of 10.46 yuan from the previous day and 11.08 yuan from the previous week; the Shanghai gold closing price was 862.50 yuan/g, an increase of 9.60 yuan from the previous day and 12.92 yuan from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 61,916 units, an increase of 11,272 units from the previous day and 8,760 units from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 61,916 units, an increase of 11,272 units from the previous day and 8,760 units from the previous week; the spot - futures basis was - 5.86 yuan [1]. - **Domestic Silver**: The futures closing price was 10,939 yuan/kg, an increase of 307 yuan from the previous day and 590 yuan from the previous week; the Shanghai silver closing price was 10,878 yuan/kg, an increase of 327 yuan from the previous day and 603 yuan from the previous week; the spot trading volume was 538,718 units, a decrease of 159,414 units from the previous day and 9,610 units from the previous week; the spot - futures basis was - 61 yuan [1]. - **International Gold**: The COMEX futures closing price was 3,862.90 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 73.10 US dollars from the previous day and 143.50 US dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 3,769.85 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 163.70 US dollars from the previous week; the SPDR Gold ETF holding was 994.56 tons, a decrease of 6.01 tons from the previous day; the spot - futures basis was - 36.05 US dollars [1]. - **International Silver**: The COMEX futures closing price was 47.11 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.74 US dollars from the previous day and 3.75 US dollars from the previous week; the London silver spot price was 46.95 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 4.72 US dollars from the previous week; the iShare Silver ETF holding was 15,521.35 tons, an increase of 159.51 tons from the previous day; the spot - futures basis was - 0.16 US dollars [1]. Price Ratio and Other Related Data - The price ratio of gold to silver: Shanghai gold spot/Shanghai silver spot was 79.29, a decrease of 1.55 from the previous day and 3.40 from the previous week; New York gold futures/New York silver futures was 82.00, an increase of 0.26 from the previous day and a decrease of 3.77 from the previous week [1]. Other Commodity and Market Data - ICE Brent crude oil was 66.77 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.05 US dollars from the previous day and an increase of 0.72 US dollars from the previous week; Shanghai rebar was 3,097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan from the previous day and 58 yuan from the previous week; Dalian iron ore was 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day and 18.5 yuan from the previous week [1]. Important Information - If the US government shuts down, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend all operations and will not release economic data. After a record - breaking rally, the value of US gold reserves has reached 1 trillion US dollars [1]. - Trump said that Israel agreed to the "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, but a senior Hamas official said they had not received the plan; Qatar said it received an apology from the Israeli prime minister, who promised not to launch a similar attack on Qatar [1]. Trading Strategy - For gold, consider going long on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,840 - 4,065 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/g and the resistance level around 880 - 930 yuan/g. For silver, for London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 40 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5 US dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/kg and the resistance level around 10,500 - 11,350 yuan/kg [1].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets are experiencing bullish momentum, driven primarily by expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve following its first rate cut of the year in September [1][2]. Market Performance - As of September 29, 2023, spot gold rose by 1.90% to $3,821.40 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.80% to $3,859.00 per ounce. Spot silver saw a rise of 1.75% to $46.8855 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 0.84% to $47.050 per ounce [1]. - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to a decline in the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver due to lower federal funds rates [1]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising as the 2026 chairmanship transition approaches. Candidates for the new chair have expressed support for further monetary easing, influenced by political perspectives [2]. - The expectation of significant monetary easing under the new chair is seen as a factor contributing to the rise in precious metal prices, reflecting market sentiment towards the dollar's credibility and Fed policies [2]. Economic Data Insights - Recent U.S. economic data has generally exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% and personal spending growth at 2.5% [2]. - Inflation indicators show the core PCE index rose to 2.9% in August, and the manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 52, indicating continued economic expansion [2]. Trading Positions and Market Sentiment - There has been an increase in net long positions in gold and silver by overseas management funds, with COMEX gold net positions rising by 1,578 contracts to 160,500 contracts, and silver net positions increasing by 1,293 contracts to 37,000 contracts [3]. - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 87.8 on September 17 to 81.3 on September 29, indicating stronger performance in silver relative to gold [3]. Upcoming Economic Events - The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown, which could impact the release of non-farm payroll data. If the shutdown is avoided, employment data could significantly influence Fed policy expectations [3]. - Attention is also on the upcoming ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data, as strong manufacturing data could lead to further declines in the gold-silver ratio [3]. Investor Strategy - Investors are advised to align their strategies with their investment horizons and risk preferences, especially given the heightened sensitivity to Fed policy statements during the holiday period [4]. - Long-term investors should focus on gold as a hedge against inflation and systemic risks, while short-term traders should prioritize risk management due to potential market volatility during the holiday [4].