Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Low valuations and macro - sentiment boost prices, and the short - term may continue the rebound trend, but the supply - demand pressure has not been significantly alleviated. After the low - valuation situation is repaired, it can still be used as a short - position allocation within the sector [5] - Unilateral strategy: In the short term, it rebounds driven by low valuations and macro - sentiment. After the low - valuation repair, it can still be used as a short - position allocation within the sector; Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see; Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: Silicon ferroalloy production has a slight rebound, while manganese ferroalloy production has a slight decline. Despite poor profits of alloy enterprises recently, production has not shown a trend of decline and the absolute production volume remains high [5] - Demand side: The molten iron production of 247 steel mills continues to decline with an increasing decline. The destocking situation in October is not ideal, leading to the deterioration of steel mill profits and a downward expectation for raw material demand [5] - Cost side: The spot price of thermal coal remains strong, the electricity price in ferroalloy production areas is generally stable, the spot price of manganese ore has a slight decline, but the inventory is still at a low level in the same period, and the cost side has some support [5] - Macro - aspect: The Fourth Plenary Session has concluded and the 14th Five - Year Plan Outline has been announced. There are still mentions of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, which brings expectations of capacity reduction or production control for the high - energy - consuming ferroalloy industry and boosts market sentiment [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: In the short term, it rebounds driven by low valuations and macro - sentiment. After the low - valuation repair, it can still be used as a short - position allocation within the sector [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations on rallies [6] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production of 247 sample steel mills is 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy of five major steel types (the sample accounts for about 70% of the total demand for silicon ferroalloy of five major steel types) is 1.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 tons; The weekly demand for silicon manganese of five major steel types (70%) is 12.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons [11] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises in the country is 35.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08%; The national silicon ferroalloy production (weekly supply) is 11.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country is 43.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%; The national silicon manganese production (99% of weekly supply) is 20.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [12] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 24, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises is 6.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons; The national inventory of 63 independent silicon manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) is 29.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 tons [13] Other Data Tracking - **Spot Price - Basis**: It shows the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese FeMn65Si17, the market price of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy 72%FeSi, the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese, and the basis of the main contract of Inner Mongolia silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [18] - **Production Situation of Dual - silicon Enterprises**: It shows the weekly production and operating rate of domestic silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: It shows the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly total steel production, profitability rate, and molten iron daily output of 247 steel mills, as well as the total social steel inventory from 2021 - 2025 [30] - **Silicon Manganese Cost and Profit**: On October 23, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5806 yuan/ton with a profit of - 126 yuan/ton; the production cost of Ningxia is 5852 yuan/ton with a profit of - 272 yuan/ton; etc. [32] - **Cost - Manganese Ore Price**: It shows the price of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotation of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of different types of manganese ore from 2021 - 2025 [40] - **Silicon Ferroalloy Cost and Profit**: On October 23, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia is 5616 yuan/ton with a profit of - 416 yuan/ton; the production cost of Ningxia is 5513 yuan/ton with a profit of - 333 yuan/ton; etc. [42] - **Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price**: It shows the prices of Fugu blue - carbon small materials, Yulin thermal coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [50][53] - **Double - silicon Steel Tendering Price of Hebei Representative Steel Mills**: It shows the steel tendering prices of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [55] - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferroalloy Supply - Monthly Production**: It shows the cumulative and monthly production of domestic silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [62][66] - **Manganese Ore and Silicon Ferroalloy Import and Export**: It shows the monthly net import volume of domestic manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of domestic silicon ferroalloy from 2013 - 2025 [70] - **Magnesium Metal Demand**: It shows the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 - 2025 [73] - **Silicon Ferroalloy Inventory of Alloy Plants vs Steel Mills**: It shows the silicon ferroalloy inventory of alloy plants and steel mills' available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory from 2021 - 2025 [77][81] - **Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports**: It shows the available days of silicon manganese inventory of steel mills, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [85]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights a significant decline in China's ferroalloy exports in August 2025, with a volume of 60,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% and an export value of 13.9 million USD, down 22.3% year-on-year [1] Industry Overview - The report covers the supply and demand dynamics of the ferroalloy industry in China from 2026 to 2032, indicating a comprehensive analysis of market trends and investment prospects [1] - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing tailored consulting services [1]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Report date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification number: F3075616 [2] - Trading consultation certificate number: Z0018025 [2] Group 2: Weekly Production Data Silicon Manganese - National weekly production: 20.74 million tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 17.55% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 9.90 million tons, a decrease of 1,260 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.00% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 4.63 million tons, an increase of 1,225 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [3] - Guangxi weekly production: 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 665 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.94% [3] - Guizhou weekly production: 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 18.61% [3] - Yunnan weekly production: 1.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.94% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 2.16 million tons, a decrease of 490 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.00% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production: 11.41 million tons, an increase of 1,260 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.41% [3] - Inner Mongolia weekly production: 3.61 million tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.44% [3] - Ningxia weekly production: 2.98 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.87% [3] - Shaanxi weekly production: 1.73 million tons, an increase of 560 tons from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.28% [3] - Qinghai weekly production: 1.62 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.32% [3] - Gansu weekly production: 1.36 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.31% [3] - Other regions weekly production: 0.01 million tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous week and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.01% [3] Group 3: Data Source - Data source: Mysteel; organized by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 24, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5180 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5200 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 20 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5200 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day and up 50 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5200 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5800 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 yuan from the previous week. The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon ferroalloy qualified block was 5650 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous day and up 80 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (trader price) was 5650 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The latest price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy export was 1055 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day and down 5 US dollars from the previous week; the latest price of Tianjin 75 was 1105 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day and down 5 US dollars from the previous week [2]. - For silicon manganese, on October 24, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese (factory - ex price) was 5680 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5580 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. The latest price of Ningxia 6517 silicon manganese (trader price) was 5580 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 yuan from the previous week; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 was 5750 yuan, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 yuan from the previous week [2]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, the content shows the production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity - share of 95%), and the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi on a monthly basis from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - For silicon manganese, the content shows the weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, as well as the procurement price and quantity of silicon manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group on a monthly basis [6]. Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, the demand - related data includes China's estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel, the production of magnesium metal, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - For silicon manganese, the demand - related data includes China's estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel, the demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data), and the export volume of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the inventory data includes the weekly inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the daily total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on the CZCE from 2021 - 2025. It also shows the monthly average available inventory days in East China, South China, and the North region, as well as the daily average available inventory days in China [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory data includes the daily total number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts on the CZCE, the daily single - sided trading position, the weekly inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the cost - related data includes electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, the market price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the market price of 98% silica in the Northwest region, and the market price of 70% Fe iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang. The profit - related data includes the production cost, the profit after converting to the main contract, and the spot profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia, as well as the production cost and the profit after converting to the main contract of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 silicon ferroalloy from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - For silicon manganese, the profit - related data includes the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit after converting to the main contract of silicon manganese in Guangxi and Ningxia from 2021 - 2025 [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the logic of steel price trends remains unchanged; in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly [3] - For iron ore, the demand weakens after the decline of hot metal production, and the continuous accumulation of port inventory puts pressure on prices. The market is in a state of weak reality and macro - expectation tug - of - war, with prices oscillating [6] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher than short - selling [11] - For industrial silicon, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the commodity environment, and the trend of coking coal futures has a certain driving effect on its price [14] - For polysilicon, the current price fluctuation is regarded as a phased correction within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies [16] - For glass, in the short - term, without external factors, the market is expected to remain weak [19] - For soda ash, the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3047 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 129,796 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.995833 million lots, down 10,093 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3110 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3200 yuan/ton, both with no change [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.124%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,657 tons, down 2375 tons. The main contract position was 1.509998 million lots, up 6767 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Strategy Views - Rebar supply and demand both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance; hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly relieved. The steel mill profitability rate declined significantly recently, and the hot metal production decreased significantly, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally [3] Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.39% (+3.00), and the position changed by +2978 lots to 561,100 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 941,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.65% [5] Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume rebounded in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil both increased, the shipment of FMG was strong, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries rebounded slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month [6] - Demand: The average daily hot metal production in the latest period was 239.9 tons, falling below 240 tons, mainly affected by the weak steel price, the decline of steel mill profitability to the lowest level of the year, and the environmental protection issues in Hebei affecting blast furnace production [6] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On October 23, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.14% at 5818 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5910 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 92 yuan/ton [9] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed up 0.65% at 5574 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the premium to the futures price was 76 yuan/ton [9] Strategy Views - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has put pressure on commodities. Most of the current situation has been priced in, and subsequent macro - level factors may be more important [10] - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. It is considered that the cost - performance of finding callback positions to do rebounds may be higher. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - Industrial silicon: The main contract of industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8705 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.59% (+220). The weighted contract position changed by +103 lots to 438,582 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 595 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis of the main contract was 145 yuan/ton [13] - Polysilicon: The main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 50760 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.89% (+450). The weighted contract position changed by - 3824 lots to 243,675 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.98 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg, and the basis of the main contract was 2220 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", and the supply pressure still exists. The demand is mainly restricted by supply. The cost provides support for the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [14] - Polysilicon: The over - expected increase in silicon material production in October and the decrease in downstream silicon wafer production lead to continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The supply pressure will be relieved if the leading enterprises start maintenance at the end of the month. The current price fluctuation is a phased correction [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - Glass: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1108 yuan/ton, up 1.28% (+14). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1140 yuan, with no change; the price in Central China was 1150 yuan, with no change. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million boxes, up 2.3374 million boxes (+3.64%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 12,367 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their positions by 6711 lots [18] - Soda ash: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.98% (+12). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1185 yuan, up 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7021 million tons, up 0.16 million tons (+3.64%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 934,500 tons, down 62,000 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 767,600 tons, up 78,000 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their positions by 3131 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions by 4848 lots [20] Strategy Views - Glass: Entering the end of the traditional peak season, the downstream procurement rhythm slows down further, and the supply rebounds. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short - term, and the market is expected to remain weak [19] - Soda ash: The industry shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand, policy expectations, and cost support, with the price rebounding but limited by demand [1] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, due to factors like supply and demand changes and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by downstream demand and cost expectations [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are driven by steel, with overall good demand and attention to external trade frictions [6][7] Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Thread demand recovered this week but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand rose, production was flat, and inventory decreased. Iron - water production remained high, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. From September data, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebounded due to policy expectations and cost increases, but the weak demand limited the rebound space [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures were volatile and strong. Supply was strong globally, domestic arrivals declined from a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Demand - side iron - water production was gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure to cut production would increase in the future. With expectations of policy benefits, the market sentiment improved. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price hikes in the coking industry started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, carbon supply was abundant, and the high - level iron - water production supported the price. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Due to political unrest in Mongolia, the stability of Mongolian coal imports was a concern. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and prices rose. Terminal inventory increased, and total inventory rose slightly. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Weekly production declined slightly, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium production increased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply remained high, and inventory continued to decline [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on October 23, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 are 5180 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and 50, and weekly changes of 50 and 20. The latest prices of Qinghai 72, Shaanxi 72, and Shaanxi 75 are 5170, 5200, and 5800 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes. The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 are 1055 and 1105 respectively [2]. - For silicon manganese on October 23, 2025, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 vary, and the trading prices of Ningxia 6517 and Jiangsu 6517 also have different changes [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented. Also, the production data of silicon manganese in China, such as weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 are shown [4][5][7]. Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production and price of metal magnesium, the export volume of silicon ferroalloy, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][5][8]. Inventory - The inventory data of silicon ferroalloy, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided. For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data such as the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6][8]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of ferroalloys include electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - carbonated manganese ore, and the price of chemical coke. The profit - related data include the production profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the export profit of 75% silicon ferroalloy, and the profit of silicon manganese in different regions from 2021 - 2025 [6][7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - Due to factors such as the decline in steel mill profits and high inventory pressure, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is not pessimistic about the future. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds rather than shorting. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly operating and are expected to be in short - term consolidation, following the overall commodity environment due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [13]. - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With existing real - world constraints, it is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. - Glass is in the traditional peak - season end, with weak demand and increasing supply, and the market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short term [19]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.689%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,414 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 18,322 lots. In the spot market, the Tianjin aggregated price remained unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,247 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.869%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 896 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 8,822 lots. In the spot market, the Lecong and Shanghai aggregated prices increased by 20 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and steel product prices showed weak oscillations. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small reduction in inventory, but demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, and post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, with prominent fundamental contradictions [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 774.00 yuan/ton, up 0.58% (+4.50), with the open interest changing to 558,200 lots, a decrease of 4,570 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.76% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were at a high level in the same period. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased. The near - end arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The latest average daily hot - metal output was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons month - on - month. Some blast furnaces started maintenance due to profit decline, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. - Overall: Affected by factors such as profit decline and high inventory, iron ore prices are under pressure. With weak terminal demand and macro - disturbances, ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 22, the main manganese silicon contract (SM601) closed up 1.11% at 5,810 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5,720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the futures. - The main ferrosilicon contract (SF601) closed up 1.17% at 5,558 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are in an oscillation range, and attention should be paid to the price direction at the current trend line [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - Current factors such as weak real - demand and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions have pressured prices. However, the market has insufficient trading of expectations for subsequent important meetings. There may be an expected difference. - It is not pessimistic about the future of the black sector. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to make rebounds. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [9][10]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) was 8,485 yuan/ton, down 0.24% (-20). The weighted - contract open interest increased to 438,479 lots, an increase of 2,236 lots. In the spot market, the price of East China non - oxygen - permeable 553 remained unchanged, and the price of 421 decreased by 50 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by the overall market environment, industrial silicon prices are weakly operating. The supply shows a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with overall supply pressure. The demand has potential risks of weakening support. Cost factors provide some support. Overall, it is expected to be in short - term consolidation and follow the commodity environment [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract (PS2511) was 50,310 yuan/ton, down 0.80% (-405). The weighted - contract open interest decreased to 247,499 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 2,690 yuan/ton for the main contract [14][15]. Strategy Viewpoints - After the end of expected pricing, polysilicon prices have fallen again. With factors such as over - expected production increase and reduced downstream production scheduling, there is real - world inventory pressure. It is currently a phased correction within the oscillation range, with attention on the support level of 48,000 yuan/ton for the 11 - contract [16]. Glass Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main glass contract closed at 1,094 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+7). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 372 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 9,410 short positions [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Entering the end of the traditional peak season, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. The market's supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve in the short term, and it is expected to remain weakly operating without external stimuli [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - On Wednesday afternoon at 15:00, the main soda ash contract closed at 1,223 yuan/ton, up 1.07% (+13). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 2.31% week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders increased 2,351 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 12,374 short positions [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The soda ash industry has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory and weak downstream support. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [21].

免责声明 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/10/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,810.00 | +64.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,538.00 | +64.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 558,185.00 | -18737.00↓ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 384,705.00 | -15240.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -53,283.00 | -4183.00↓ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -26,462.00 | -574.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | +4.00↑ SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 60.00 | +24.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si18 （日，元/吨） | 46,292.00 5,580.00 | -346.00↓ ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report - Ferrous Alloys Daily [2] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5538, up 64 (1.17%) from the previous day, up 186 from the previous week; trading volume 134,081, down 44,845; open interest 197,587, down 7,816 [3] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5810, up 64 (1.11%) from the previous day, up 64 from the previous week; trading volume 174,618, up 14,272; open interest 356,712, down 12,350 [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin showed changes of 20 - 50 yuan/ton in some regions [3] - Manganese Silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were generally stable [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -238, with daily and weekly changes of -14 and -166 respectively [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -130, with daily and weekly changes of -64 and -64 respectively [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore: Tianjin Port's Australian lump decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton degree, while South African semi - carbonate was stable [3] - Blue Coke Small Material: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Silicon Iron - Supply: Recent production decreased slightly but remained at a high level [6] - Demand: September macro data continued the downward trend in Q3, steel profits and inventory were poor, and steel mill production cut expectations pressured raw material demand [6] - Outlook: Low valuation led to a corrective rebound, but fundamental pressure remained, and the rebound's sustainability was expected to be limited. It was recommended to continue the bottom - range operation [6] Manganese Silicon - Supply: Recent production increased and remained at a high level [6] - Demand: Macro data was poor, steel inventory was high, and profits were low, leading to a downward demand expectation [6] - Outlook: After the low - valuation of the futures price, a corrective rebound occurred, but the sustainability was expected to be limited. It was recommended to continue the bottom - range operation [6] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Low valuation drove the rebound, but the fundamental pressure remained unchanged. The sustainability was expected to be limited, and it was recommended to continue the range - bound operation [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7] Group 5: Important Information - On the 22nd, the transaction prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were as follows: South African semi - carbonate was 34 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump was 39.6 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump was 39 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree, South African medium - iron lump was 35.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed was 34.5 - 35 yuan/ton degree [8] - Jupiter announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipping price to China: Mn34% (min) South African semi - carbonate powder was 3.65 US dollars/ton degree, and there was no lump ore offer this month [8] Group 6: Related Diagrams - Silicon Iron Monthly Spread: The spread showed different values on different days [15] - Manganese Silicon Monthly Spread: The spread showed different values on different days [13] - Silicon Iron Basis: The basis of the main contract - Inner Mongolia was presented [16] - Manganese Silicon Basis: The basis of the main contract - Inner Mongolia was presented [16] - Silicon Iron Cost and Profit: Costs and profits in different regions were provided [19] - Manganese Silicon Cost and Profit: Costs and profits in different regions were provided [22]