新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-05 社会库存继续下滑华东升水持续走高 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为186.85美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化200元/吨至22990元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22880元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-40元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日180元/吨至22870元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-50元/吨。 绝对价格上涨突破23000元/吨，下游采购偏谨慎，天津和广东地区贴水扩大，但社会库存持续下滑，供应相对偏紧， 华东升水进一步走高。出口窗口持续打开，国内仓单库存小幅下滑，基本面方面全面偏向利好。11月冶炼端产量 环比回落且明显低于预期，现货升贴水持续向上修复，一方面体现消费强度另一方面体现供应偏紧。海内外TC持 续下滑， 国内高海拔矿山已经进入冬季停产检修周期，TC价格的快速回落叠加绝对价格的回落造成冶炼综合成本 开始面临亏损，在供给端压力后期有望下滑。基本面数据已经全面从前期利空转为利多，且当前锌估值偏低，美 国12月降息预期提高，但对未来的消费保持乐观，降息预期不改，再通胀尚未体现。 策 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 5 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：摩尔线程上市 有望带动反弹 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：情绪或有修复，短线空单止盈 4 | | 盘面整体压力仍存 5 | 蛋白粕：报告或有阶段性调整 | | --- | --- | | 国内糖价震荡 5 | 白糖：广西进入开榨高峰 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | | 价格小幅回落 8 | 生猪：出栏方面仍有压力 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 蛋价有所回落 9 | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | | 苹果基本面偏强 10 | 苹果：库存较低 | | 棉价震荡偏强 11 | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部震荡运行 可逢低试多 13 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：成本推动短期反弹，需求压制反弹高度 15 | | 金银：黄金持稳 白银回调 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂择机逢低 ...

证券日报网讯12月4日，豫光金铅（600531）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，关于"废旧锂电池回收 生产线"项目，公司目前暂未开展该项目的建设工作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beijite, is planning to acquire a controlling stake in Yunnan Wenye Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. through a share acquisition framework agreement, aiming to enhance its strategic position in the heavy metal wastewater resource utilization sector [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Beijite's wholly-owned subsidiary, Beijite New Materials, signed a share acquisition framework agreement on December 4 with individuals Liang Dakun, Liang Dajuan, and Liang Dafang [1] - The acquisition is part of a strategy to secure upstream key raw material supplies by also acquiring a controlling stake in Wenshan Dahao Mining Development Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2: Strategic Objectives - The core objective of the acquisition is to extend the company's industrial chain from the "recycling" end to increase the volume and layout of "raw materials" at the front end, while also enhancing the "smelting" segment in the middle [1] - This move aims to complete the entire industrial chain of antimony, including antimony mining, smelting, product production, recycling, and resource assurance [1]

12月4日，国内期市有色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，氧化铝期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报 2603.0元/吨，震荡下跌1.63%。 供应方面，广州期货指出，目前市场长单协议未定厂家仍保持高产暂无实质性主动减产动作，国内氧化 铝进口盈亏重回水上，预计后续仍有进口货源流入国内市场，年后仍有部分海内外新增产能等待投放， 将进一步加剧市场过剩供应。 需求方面，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，国内电解铝产能受淡季影响小幅回落，但其消费端表现韧性， 令铝厂生产稳中小幅回落。 库存方面，据融达期货介绍，截至11月27日全国氧化铝库存量441.5万吨，环比增7.1万吨。 后市来看，三立期货表示，随着近期发运恢复，铝土矿价格开始震荡下行，拖累氧化铝价格逐步跌破前 期震荡区间，短期内随着基本面恶化及铝土矿成本回落，氧化铝或保持震荡偏弱走势。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Night - session copper prices closed higher, hitting a record high. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point, and smelting output, while declining month - on - month, continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high, infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 89,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 90 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,449 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 161,800 tons, and the daily change was 2,375 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,897 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 535,900 tons, and the daily change was - 2,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,062 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,375 tons, and the daily change was 350 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,600 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,875 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,074 tons, and the daily change was - 1,290 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,195 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 256,950 tons, and the daily change was - 3,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 311,370 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,390 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 40,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,145 tons, and the daily change was - 15 tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a general pullback on December 4, while the non-ferrous metal sector continued to rise, with the non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) surging over 2% and attracting significant net subscriptions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector showed resilience, with key stocks like Xiyang Co., Western Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous rising over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 1.8 million units, marking three consecutive days of net inflow [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have increased, with an 80.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which has positively impacted the prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum [1] - Chile's state-owned copper company has set a historical high for copper premiums offered to U.S. customers, alongside frequent disruptions in global copper supply, leading to a rapid increase in LME copper prices [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Guosen Securities noted that the non-ferrous metal industry remains relatively stable, with slight price increases for copper and aluminum, while inventory levels remain high, indicating strong resilience [1] - The black metal smelting sector has established a replenishment trend, with narrowing price declines contributing to a recovery in industry prosperity [1] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal leader ETF (159876) and its connected fund (017140) passively track the CSI Non-Ferrous Index, which covers copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market maintains a volatile trend, with different sectors showing various performance characteristics. Factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical issues significantly impact the market. For example, the expected Fed rate cut affects the precious metals market, and geopolitical conflicts influence the oil market [69][70][121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market lacks catalysts and remains volatile. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a double - buying option strategy [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment is weak, and the ultra - long end is under pressure. It is advisable to lightly short the T contract on rallies and be cautious about curve - steepening arbitrage [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is obvious supply pressure, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a strategy of selling wide - straddle options [28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are adjusting, and domestic sugar prices are falling. It is suggested to wait and see [30][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The market continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short term [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot is strong, and the futures are in a high - level volatile state. Different trading strategies are proposed for different contracts [37][39]. - **Hogs**: There is still supply pressure, and the price fluctuates slightly. A bearish strategy is recommended [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the futures fluctuate downward. Short - selling at high levels for the 01 contract and waiting and seeing for the 05 contract are advised [44][45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels for far - month contracts [47][48][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the price fluctuates mainly. It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will be slightly strong in the short term [53][54][55]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates in a range, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to maintain a volatile strategy, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in a bottom - oscillating state. It is advisable to lightly go long on far - month contracts at low levels [60][61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: It should be treated with a bearish view at high levels [63][64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost drives a short - term rebound, but the demand suppresses the rebound height. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold remains stable, and the game for silver intensifies. It is recommended to hold long positions for gold and be cautious with new positions for silver, and buy out - of - the - money call options [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum can be bought on dips, and palladium fluctuates. It is recommended to go long on the platinum - palladium ratio and buy out - of - the - money call options [72][73][75]. - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warrants increase significantly, and the copper price hits a new high. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [77][78][79]. - **Alumina**: There is no substantial production cut, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are supportive. It is recommended to be bullish on dips in the medium term [86][87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moves with the aluminum price. It is recommended to wait and see [88][89][90]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in a range. It is advisable to go long lightly on dips [93][94]. - **Nickel**: Supply increases and demand decreases in December. It is recommended to be a short - side allocation [96][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to be a short - side allocation [99][100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [102][105]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of state - purchase implementation, and the price may strengthen again. It is recommended to avoid short positions first and try to go long on far - month contracts at low levels [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is under pressure to correct in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a full correction in the long term [109][110][111]. - **Tin**: The expectation of rate cut and supply concerns drive the price up. It is recommended to maintain a high - level volatile view [112][113][114]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still an expectation of a price increase in January, and the futures are expected to continue to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and consider partial profit - taking for the 2 - 4 cash - and - carry arbitrage [115][116][119]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The pessimistic sentiment eases, and the price rebounds. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2601 contract [123][124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [125][126][128]. - **Natural Gas**: The terminal demand is weak, and the price drops faster. It is recommended to sell call options for TTF and adopt a combination of selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for HH [130][132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is abundant, and PTA has an inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage for PX1, 3 contracts and PTA1, 5 contracts and sell out - of - the - money call and put options [135][136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an inventory accumulation expectation, and the price drops. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [138][139]. - **Short - Fiber**: Domestic demand declines seasonally. It is recommended to adopt a double - selling option strategy [140][141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to adopt a double - selling option strategy [142][143]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The cost lacks support, and the inventory needs to be reduced. It is recommended to short pure benzene and go long on styrene and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146][148]. - **Propylene**: The price of external propane rises, and propylene fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies and sell call options [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The cost increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 01 contracts and hold the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract [153][154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [156][157]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see [158][159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuates. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting soda ash and going long on glass for the 05 contract [161][162]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair logic weakens, and the price drops. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting soda ash and going long on glass for the 05 contract [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage [167][169]. - **Urea**: It fluctuates strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium term [170][171][172]. - **Pulp**: The sentiment in the spot market improves. It is recommended to wait and see and take profit on previous long positions gradually [173][174][176]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the potential impact of Sino - Japanese relations on log imports [176][177][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains, and the market lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [183][184]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions. It is recommended to set stop - loss levels for RU01 and NR01 contracts and hold the RU2601 - NR2601 spread [186][187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The oil - end cost decreases. It is recommended to hold short positions for the BR 02 contract and the BR2602 - NR2602 spread [190][191][192].

文字早评 202512/04 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、法国总统马克龙抵达北京 开启第四次对华国事访问; 2、在推动人工智能之后 特朗普政府开始关注机器人； 3、夜盘铜、锡等有色金属价格大涨； 4、美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最低水平，预估为增加 5000 人，前值为 增加 4.2 万人。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.64%/-1.07%/-2.15%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.66%/-1.47%/-3.07%/-6.06%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.73%/-1.75%/-3.86%/-7.14%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.16%/-0.38%/-0.40%/-0.88%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动加快，风偏有所降低。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长仍是市场主 线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 113.610 ，环比变化-0.25%；T 主力合约收于 108.040 ，环比变 化 0. ...

Market Overview - US stock market continues to rise with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a slight opening increase in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.17% at 25,804.01 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba down 0.33%, Tencent down 0.16%, JD.com up 0.61%, Xiaomi up 0.3%, NetEase up 0.32%, Meituan up 0.94%, and Kuaishou up 0.07% [1] - The innovative drug concept opened high, with Gilead Sciences up over 3% and BeiGene up 3.1% [1] - Real estate stocks were active, with China Oceanwide Holdings up over 1% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector performed actively, with Chalco International up 7.17% and Luoyang Molybdenum up 3.43% [1] - Airline stocks opened lower, with China Eastern Airlines down over 1% [1] - Robotics concept stocks opened high, with Sanhua Intelligent Control up 5.67% and Yujian up 4.06% [1] Company News - InnoCare Pharma (02577.HK) has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with ON Semiconductor to accelerate the development of the GaN industry ecosystem [2] - The collaboration aims to integrate InnoCare's advanced GaN manufacturing capabilities with ON Semiconductor's expertise in system packaging and integration, potentially generating hundreds of millions in GaN sales over the next few years [2] - Agile Group (03383.HK) reported a total pre-sale amount of approximately 8.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 45.2% [3] - Jingrui Holdings (01862.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 876 million, a year-on-year decrease of 54.1% [4] - China Aluminum International (02068.HK) announced that its subsidiary won a bid for a new 394,000 tons/year electrolytic aluminum project in Shanxi, with a total contract price of 3.03 billion [4] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) received clinical trial approval for a selective 5-HT2A receptor agonist in the US [5] - Fosun Pharma (02196.HK) received clinical trial approval for its subsidiary's FXS887 tablets [6] - Zai Lab (02617) had its Tislelizumab tablets included in the priority review list by the National Medical Products Administration [7] - Deking Pharma (06996) received approval in Hong Kong for its Hivio® to treat two new indications: multiple myeloma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [7] - Kaisa Group (01813) has postponed its liquidation hearing to December 8 [8] Industry Insights - According to CCB International, domestic demand policies are being promoted, and the market is focusing on the "New Year" expectations [9] - After the consolidation in November, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to welcome a layout window for the year-end rally in December [9] - The focus is shifting from external environments to internal policies, with attention on the Central Economic Work Conference scheduled for mid-December [9] - Tianfeng Securities reported that most northern provinces have begun implementing staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines in a shutdown state [9] - The overall staggered production efforts have strengthened, with Hunan planning a month-long shutdown in December due to environmental pressures [9] - The bottom profitability support for cement is strong in the short term, with head enterprises starting to address overproduction capacity indicators [9]