Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a volatile upward trend on October 29, with the highest "pig content" agricultural ETF (159275) reaching a peak intraday increase of 0.81% and closing up 0.51% [1] - Key stocks in the sector included Blue Biological, which hit the daily limit, Meino Biological with over 8% increase, Luoniushan up 6%, and Shennong Seed Industry rising over 5% [1] - The current valuation of the agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is relatively low, indicating a good time for allocation, with the market's highest "pig content" ETF (159275) having a price-to-book ratio of 2.57, at the 30.08% percentile of the last decade [3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" measures in the pig industry have been intensified since May, with multiple meetings held by the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Development and Reform Commission, and industry associations to control production capacity and reduce weights [1][4] - It is expected that the pig price will enter a new upward trend in the second half of next year due to accelerated capacity reduction in the fourth quarter [1][4] - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with a significant portion (40.25%) of its holdings in the pig farming industry, higher than similar ETFs [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that the regulation of pig production capacity under policy guidance will remain a key theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated capacity increasing and the cost advantages of high-quality capacity becoming more pronounced, leading to better profit elasticity post-regulation [1] Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The downward trend in pig prices continues, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork in September 2025 at 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [1] - After the National Day holiday, the average price of live pigs has been on a continuous decline, reaching 10.90 CNY/kg by October 20 [1] Supply Side - In September, there was a concentrated release of pig output, with an increase in the outflow plans from both large-scale and social farms as the weather cooled, leading to a rise in market pig supply and meat output [2] - The demand side saw slight improvement due to pre-holiday stocking and cooler weather, but slaughter enterprises remained cautious, and slow inventory reduction of frozen products limited fresh product consumption growth [2] - By mid-October, the pace of second fattening at near the 10 CNY/kg bottom price accelerated, providing slight support to short-term pig prices [2] Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a month-on-month decrease of 0.07%, and a reduction of 90,000 heads compared to the end of Q2 [3] - Data from various sources indicate a consistent downward trend in breeding sow inventory, with a month-on-month decline of 0.84% in the sample data from Yongyi and 0.28% in the Steel Union sample data [3] Policy Regulation and Price Decline - Current policy regulations are fully implemented, with previous meetings clarifying requirements for production capacity control, slaughter weight, and environmental funding [4] - Leading enterprises have responded positively, with Muyuan Foods reporting a breeding sow inventory of 3.305 million heads at the end of September, a reduction of 126,000 heads since the end of June [4] - As of October 24, 2025, the average profit per head for self-bred pigs in the industry was -185.68 CNY, and for purchased piglets, it was -289.07 CNY, indicating increased losses in farming [4] - The combination of policy regulation and industry losses is expected to accelerate capacity reduction, with pig prices likely to see an upward turning point in the second half of 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% in the next 6 months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in pig prices, with significant downward trends observed in September 2025. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 30.06 CNY/kg, 13.81 CNY/kg, and 24.50 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -10.62%, -3.79%, and -1.92% [16][19]. - The supply side indicates an increase in pig slaughtering due to cooler weather, leading to higher market supply and pressure on prices. However, demand was slightly boosted by holiday preparations, although overall consumption remained cautious [19][24]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing policy adjustments and the current low price environment will accelerate the reduction of production capacity, with a potential price rebound expected in the second half of 2026 [30][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand Performance - The average price of live pigs has dropped to 10.90 CNY/kg as of October 20, 2025, following a consistent decline post the National Day holiday [16][19]. - The supply of pigs has increased due to higher slaughtering rates and larger weights, while demand has been limited by slow inventory turnover of frozen products [19][24]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 40.35 million, a slight decrease of 0.07% from the previous month, indicating a trend of capacity reduction in the industry [24][30]. - The report notes that the average profitability for self-bred pigs is -185.68 CNY per head, with external pig purchases resulting in a loss of -289.07 CNY per head, highlighting the increasing financial strain on producers [30][24]. Future Market Cycle Predictions - The report emphasizes that capacity regulation driven by policy will remain a central theme in the near future, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity and improved profitability for leading firms [30][24]. - The industry valuation has shown some recovery but remains below historical averages, suggesting a safety margin for investments in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and others [30][24].

Group 1: Key Insights on Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic (688392.SH) - The company is expected to benefit from the domestic advanced packaging wave, leveraging its core ultrasonic technology across various sectors including tires, new energy, and semiconductors [1][5] - In 2024, the revenue breakdown includes 31% from accessories, 26% from power battery ultrasonic welding equipment, and 14% from semiconductor ultrasonic equipment, indicating a diversified revenue stream [5] - The semiconductor business is anticipated to grow significantly, with 2024 revenue from power semiconductors at 46.93 million yuan, and the company has secured major domestic clients in the advanced packaging sector [5][6] Group 2: Key Insights on Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) - For Q3 2025, Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 4.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.42%, and a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth in its core business [9][10] - The company’s WPS personal business returned to double-digit growth, with a revenue of 899 million yuan, up 11.18% year-on-year, driven by AI product launches and refined market operations [10] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 6 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 1.9 billion yuan, indicating robust growth potential [10] Group 3: Key Insights on Zhi Xing Technology (1274.HK) - Zhi Xing Technology launched the iRC100 controller, marking the beginning of its second growth curve, with projected revenues of 1.79 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 43% year-on-year [12][13] - The company has made significant advancements in robotics and autonomous driving systems, showcasing its commitment to technological innovation [12] - The establishment of a new 5G smart manufacturing base is expected to enhance production capabilities and drive future revenue growth [13] Group 4: Key Insights on Zhong Wang Software (688083.SH) - Zhong Wang Software's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 538 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5%, driven by strong overseas market performance [14][15] - The company is focusing on 3D CAD product development, with expectations of significant revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 9.55 million yuan in 2025 [15] - The firm maintains a high R&D investment ratio, exceeding 60%, to support its ongoing product innovations [15] Group 5: Key Insights on Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ) - Yiwei Lithium Energy reported a revenue of 16.83 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.85%, with a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan [24][25] - The company anticipates a significant increase in battery shipments, projecting 50 GWh for power batteries and 70-75 GWh for energy storage batteries in 2025 [25] - The firm is preparing for an H-share listing, which is expected to enhance its market valuation and liquidity [25][26] Group 6: Key Insights on Southern Airlines (600029.SH) - Southern Airlines achieved a revenue of 137.67 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 2.31 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in profitability [28][29] - The company reported a passenger load factor of 85.62%, reflecting strong demand in the aviation sector [29] - Future earnings per share are projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 0.09 yuan in 2025 [29] Group 7: Key Insights on Longda Co., Ltd. (688231.SH) - Longda Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.31 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, driven by high-temperature alloy sales [32][33] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 1.81 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 100 million yuan, indicating strong growth potential [33] - The firm is focusing on maintaining its competitive edge through technological innovation and expanding its product offerings [33] Group 8: Key Insights on Giant Star Agriculture (603477) - Giant Star Agriculture reported a revenue of 563.9 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant increase in pig sales volume [35][36] - Despite a decline in profits due to low pig prices, the company is expected to maintain stable growth in production volume [36] - The firm is adjusting its profit forecasts, projecting a net profit of 1.21 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a long-term growth outlook [36] Group 9: Key Insights on Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (600967.SH) - Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group achieved a revenue of 7.89 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 386 million yuan [40][41] - The company reported improved profitability in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 14.77%, indicating operational efficiency [41] - Future revenue projections suggest steady growth, with expected revenues of 11.1 billion yuan in 2025 [41] Group 10: Key Insights on China Coal Energy (601898.SH) - China Coal Energy reported a revenue of 110.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 12.49 billion yuan [47][48] - The company is focusing on maintaining stable production levels while managing costs effectively [48] - Future earnings projections remain stable, with expected net profits of 16.15 billion yuan in 2025 [48]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Core Views - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year, with a significant increase in October. Although the pressure on large - scale farms has eased to some extent, there is still supply pressure. Farmers are reluctant to sell due to the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. On the demand side, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and terminal consumption has increased but lacks continuous growth. Spot prices may rebound but have limited upside, and futures prices also face supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with limited upward space [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: On the 28th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then fluctuated and declined. It closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, down 1.30% from the previous day, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,847 lots to 308,132 lots [6] - **Spot**: On the 28th, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 12.51 yuan/kg, up 0.31 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] 2. Industry News - No specific news content is provided in the given text 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of October 23, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 138 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 50.4 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 378.6 yuan/head, a weekly increase of 53.6 yuan/head [12] - **Price**: The average market selling price of 15kg piglets in the week of October 23 was 255 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.69 yuan/jin, a weekly increase of 0.09 yuan/jin [12] - **Cost**: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.02 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.39 yuan/kg; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a weekly increase of 0.43 yuan/kg [12] - **Slaughter weight**: As of the week of October 23, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 127.90 kg, a weekly decrease of 0.35 kg, a monthly decrease of 0.65 kg, and an annual increase of 1.83 kg [12] - **Utilization rate**: As of mid - October, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 44.8%, a 12.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period and a 10 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jingji Zhinong, reported stable operational performance during the industry adjustment period, achieving a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan and a net profit of 298 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the company sold 1.6757 million pigs, including 266,700 piglets, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.53% [1] - The total sales revenue for the same period was 2.846 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 1.52% year-on-year due to falling pig prices, yet remaining within a stable range [1] - The company's financial expenses decreased by 32.89% compared to the previous period, indicating a significant optimization of its financial structure [1] Group 2: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement by enhancing pig herd health through serum domestication and optimizing feed formulas to increase conversion rates [1] - Innovative use of pineapple residue for feed production has contributed to a steady decline in overall costs [1] - The company plans to continue enhancing breeding efficiency to solidify its cost competitiveness [1] Group 3: Industry Position and Development Strategy - Jingji Zhinong is exploring industry-leading breeding models to create diverse development engines [2] - The company employs advanced "6750" standardized production lines and smart farming systems to improve disease prevention and production efficiency [2] - The establishment of over 12 service departments in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions supports contract pig farming, providing comprehensive assistance to partner farmers, thus injecting new momentum into rural revitalization [2] - The company's practices in green ecological industry serve as a model for the industry, enhancing its resilience and quality during a critical adjustment phase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The swine market in China is undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with companies like Jingji Zhino focusing on cost reduction and operational optimization to maintain stability during this period [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Jingji Zhino reported a revenue of 3.67 billion yuan and a net profit of 298 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, demonstrating stable operations despite industry adjustments [1]. - The company sold 1.68 million pigs from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.53%, while sales revenue slightly decreased by 1.52% to 2.84 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The swine market is experiencing a mismatch in supply and demand, leading to increased output but decreased sales revenue and prices, with the average trading price of pigs in October ranging from 10 to 12 yuan per kilogram, below many producers' cost lines [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has proposed measures to promote high-quality development in the swine industry, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and controlling new production capacity [1]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - Jingji Zhino is implementing advanced breeding models and refined management practices, including a standardized production line and smart farming systems, to enhance disease control and production efficiency [3]. - The company has expanded its cooperative breeding model, achieving a high survival rate of 98% among excellent breeding households [3]. - In collaboration with the Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Jingji Zhino has developed a fermentation technology to convert pineapple processing by-products into high-quality feed, resulting in a 5%-10% increase in daily weight gain for pigs and significant cost savings [3].

Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley reports that dollar positioning has turned positive for the first time since Q1 2025, indicating increasing investor confidence in the U.S. outlook [1] - The firm anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement significant rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar over the next year due to a potential decline in U.S. growth advantages [2] - Barclays expects a divergence in opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others may prefer to maintain current rates [3] Group 2: Commodity and Market Trends - Huatai Securities predicts that global LME aluminum prices may rise above $3,200 per ton next year, driven by a supply growth slowdown and a demand increase amid a manufacturing recovery [6] - Guotai Haitong indicates that the coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with coal prices exceeding 770 yuan per ton, driven by multiple favorable factors [4] - Galaxy Securities highlights that intensified losses in October may accelerate the capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, while also noting growth opportunities in the pet food sector [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - CICC forecasts that Vietnam's reclassification as a secondary emerging market will attract foreign capital inflows, potentially amounting to $1-1.5 billion over 1-3 years, benefiting sectors like finance, real estate, and consumption [5] - CITIC Securities suggests maintaining a focus on themes such as anti-involution, AI computing power, semiconductors, and short dramas, as the market remains in a high-level oscillation phase [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in the number of market pigs sold, but faced losses in Q3 due to low pig prices [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 563.9 million yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.7 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.57% in revenue but a decrease of 58.69% in net profit [1][3]. - The average selling price of market pigs showed a declining trend from July to September, impacting the company's profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 192.2 million yuan and a net loss of 7.4 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +11.57% in revenue and -124.32% in net profit [1][2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.44%, down 7.40 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 was 4.11%, down 22.26 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Production and Sales - The company sold 2.931 million market pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.64%, and 1.025 million in Q3, up 45.98% year-on-year [2]. - The company aims to achieve an annual market pig output of around 4 million heads, in line with its initial targets [2]. Cost and Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.45%, down 2.71 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control despite the revenue growth [3]. - The decline in various expense ratios was attributed to the increase in revenue, which diluted the overall expense burden [3]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 121 million yuan, 604 million yuan, and 896 million yuan, respectively, with a significant expected recovery in 2026 and 2027 [3][5]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in pig output and has strong cost control capabilities, positioning it well for medium to long-term growth [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index declining by 1.36% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [12][15]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly but lacks the foundation for significant increases, with prices reaching 11.71 yuan/kg as of October 26, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.68 yuan/kg [5][17]. - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices at 3.5 yuan/chick, but the terminal demand remains weak, leading to losses in broiler chicken farming [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector performed poorly, significantly lagging behind the broader market indices [12][15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Price Lacks Strong Rebound Foundation - National pig prices have rebounded to 11.71 yuan/kg, but significant price increases are not expected due to increased supply and weak demand [5][17]. - As of October 24, 2025, self-breeding pig farms faced an average loss of 186 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incurred a loss of 289 yuan per head [18]. - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a slight decrease in breeding stock in September, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Stable Prices, Weak Terminal Demand - Chick prices are stable, but broiler prices are under pressure due to weak consumer demand, leading to losses in farming [31][32]. - The number of grandparent stock updated has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% reduction compared to the previous year [31][32]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with white sugar priced at 5750 yuan/ton as of October 24, 2025 [39]. - Soybean prices have slightly increased, with Brazilian soybeans at 4011 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.4% rise [39]. - Cotton prices have seen a minor increase, now at 14793 yuan/ton, while corn prices remain stable at 2217 yuan/ton [39].