春季行情步入纵深，共识与轮动并存。机构普遍认为，充裕流动性与政策环境支撑市场，但结构重于大 势。当前主线清晰：一是全球产业趋势驱动的科技成长，尤以AI应用及算力（核心股）为核心；二 是"脱虚向实"与供需格局共振下的资源品重估（如化工（核心股）、有色）；三是受益于基本面边际改 善的制造与消费。 操作上需注意：贵金属（核心股）短期投机过热，波动加剧；板块轮动加快，宜从β转向α，在景气赛 道中精选具备定价权与盈利修复空间的优质资产。 中信证券：对投机属性越发明显的贵金属（核心股）板块要开始保持警惕 AI产业趋势不变，把握春季躁动第二阶段。此前AI应用受流动性影响有所调整，但推动市场走强的有 利因素并未发生改变，随着前期市场波动率逐步修复，市场有望平稳进入春季躁动行情的第二阶段。政 策层面，广东、浙江等地将AI列为2026年重点产业，推出"人工智能+"战略，同时国家部委部署"人工智 能+制造"专项行动，推动技术应用落地；行业层面，阿里发布自研芯片、DeepSeekV4发布等事件催化 市场对AI应用落地的乐观预期，算力（核心股）需求扩大；资金层面，春节前资金活跃，AI营销（核 心股）、视频生成等应用领域情绪高涨推升板块 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that after two years of valuation recovery in the A-share market, the third year is often difficult to sustain high valuations, with market performance increasingly reliant on profit realization [1] - The report suggests a focus on sectors with visible performance and improved supply-demand structures, particularly in cyclical industries benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and China's competitive manufacturing advantages [1] - The AI industry remains a clear investment theme, but the focus should shift from thematic expansion to performance-driven investments, particularly in areas with supply shortages such as computing power and storage [1] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market exhibited typical spring volatility characteristics, with major indices recording positive returns, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index which rose by 15.67% [2] - The market's upward momentum was driven by a rapid influx of incremental capital, with average daily trading volume reaching 3.04 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month [3] - Regulatory interventions and global disturbances have led to fluctuations in market risk appetite, causing a slowdown in the pace of index increases [3] Group 3 - In the technology sector, thematic investments initially outperformed, but as margin requirements increased, there was a shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, such as semiconductors and power equipment [4] - Cyclical assets, particularly in non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals, have shown strong performance due to three driving factors: spillover from technology sector growth, supply-side constraints, and external geopolitical factors [4] - The market is expected to exhibit a structural characteristic moving forward, with indices likely to remain volatile and focused on resource, technology, and overseas expansion themes [5][6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In February 2026, a total of 111 companies in the A-share market will face the unlocking of restricted shares, with a total unlocking volume of approximately 12.902 billion shares and an unlocking scale of 233.584 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month decrease of about 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of about 50.63% [1][3]. Group 1: Unlocking Scale and Key Companies - The largest unlocking scale is attributed to Xinda Securities, with an unlocking market value exceeding 40 billion yuan [1][3]. - Five stocks will have an unlocking market value exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Xinda Securities, Hunan YN, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals leading the list [3][4]. - Xinda Securities will unlock 2.5514 billion shares on February 2, with an unlocking market value of approximately 44.93 billion yuan, accounting for 78.67% of its total share capital [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Distribution - The industries with the highest unlocking market values are non-bank financials, electronics, and power equipment [1][9]. - In the non-bank financial sector, Xinda Securities has a significant unlocking scale, while in the electronics sector, Zhongwei Semiconductor has a notable unlocking scale [9][10]. Group 3: Additional Notable Unlockings - Hunan YN will unlock 374 million shares on February 9, with an unlocking market value of approximately 24.179 billion yuan, accounting for 49.13% of its total share capital [7][9]. - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals will have an unlocking volume of 357 million shares, representing 56.47% of its total share capital, with an unlocking market value of approximately 22.47 billion yuan [7][9]. - Honghai Technology will have its anniversary unlocking in February, with an unlocking volume of approximately 137 million shares and a market value of about 1.955 billion yuan [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility at elevated levels, with external and internal factors limiting risk appetite ahead of the holiday season. The core drivers of the current spring market rally remain unchanged, suggesting potential opportunities for investment after adjustments [1][17]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown a preference for value stocks, with a notable shift towards lower valuation sectors such as liquor and consumer goods, increasing the difficulty of capturing excess returns [1][17]. - Historical spring market adjustments are often driven by profit-taking pressures, policy and fundamental validations, and external environmental shocks. If adjustments are primarily due to fund behavior, they may provide space for subsequent increases [2][18][20]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of now, over 50% of annual performance forecasts have been disclosed across all A-shares, with a higher than average positive forecast rate in sectors such as non-bank financials, materials, and consumer goods. The sectors with the highest projected net profit growth include military, machinery, and consumer products [3][21]. - The overall industry prosperity index has risen for two consecutive months, indicating improvements in various sectors, including power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [3][21]. Group 3: Valuation Observations - Current valuation and trading conditions indicate that sectors like computing power and materials are experiencing high levels of crowding, while consumer and export chains, as well as AI applications, are less crowded, presenting potential investment opportunities [4][22]. - The trading crowding in sectors such as semiconductors and aerospace equipment shows signs of decline, while consumer goods and financial sectors are beginning to recover from low trading crowding [4][22]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain volatility in the short term, with a potential continuation of the spring rally post-holiday. It is recommended to focus on high-quality, low-valuation sectors such as power equipment, semiconductors, and consumer goods [5][23]. - The investment strategy should include a shift towards sectors with high growth potential and favorable valuations, while also considering thematic investments in AI applications and consumer travel chains benefiting from the holiday season [5][23].

【 摘要 】浙商证券廖静池称，展望后市，科技成长板块在经历三周的强势期之后，"跟随"权重 指数节奏进入高位震荡整理。招商银行陈峤认为，短期黄金回调动能仍在累积，中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。 一、焦点锐评 1．黄金、白银史诗级暴跌 1月30日，在亚市早盘传出特朗普将提名凯文·沃什任美联储主席的消息后贵金属即转跌，现货白 银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎 司4700美元，遭遇40年来单日最大跌幅。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持 更高利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点。 【解读】招商银行陈峤分析称，短期看，在本月极端单边行情落地后，市场回调动能仍在累积， 后续调整走势或进一步延续，建议交易型投资者保持警惕，防范市场波动风险。中长期看，黄金 基本面逻辑稳固，牛市趋势未改。当下市场更多聚焦于美元信用重塑与全球秩序重构，与1970- 1974年布雷顿森林体系瓦解时的黄金牛市更为类似。 二、权益市场 1.富国基金：从"结构牛"走向"全面牛" A股 | 万得全A | 6783.79 -1.59% | | 5. 78% | 5. 83% ...

Core Insights - The public fund industry is actively launching new products, with technology themes becoming a popular investment focus due to improving macroeconomic conditions and ongoing technological advancements, leading to a positive outlook for the A-share market through 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - Multiple public funds have recently launched technology-themed products, with significant fundraising success, such as the Morgan Stanley Hong Kong-Shanghai Technology Mixed Fund raising 4.424 billion yuan [1] - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive, with sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, and robotics showing strong performance [1][2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The gradual recovery of the economy, driven by the "anti-involution" policy and strong demand in various sectors, is anticipated to lead to a stable economic environment through 2026 [2] - The new wave of technological revolution is expected to reshape the global economic landscape, providing strong momentum for China's economic development [2] Group 3: Investment Directions - Five key investment areas are highlighted: 1. Domestic semiconductor industry growth driven by increased production and technological upgrades [3] 2. Non-ferrous metals benefiting from global resource adjustments and domestic policy, with structural demand from AI and new energy sectors [3] 3. Power equipment sector gaining opportunities from global AI infrastructure development [3][4] 4. AI computing power infrastructure growth supported by increased capital expenditure from major internet companies [4] 5. Humanoid robots entering the industrialization phase, showcasing significant market potential [5]

Group 1 - In 2025, the new "National Nine Articles" and the "1+6" reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board drove a moderate development of the Shanghai and Shenzhen new stock market, with a total of 90 new stocks listed, an increase of 13 from 2024 [1][7] - The fundraising scale significantly increased, with total funds raised reaching 124.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 98.25%, and large IPOs in the second half contributed 72% of the total fundraising [1][18] - The average fundraising amount per new stock was 13.80 million yuan, up 69.62% year-on-year, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading at an average of 20.03 million yuan [1][24] Group 2 - In the primary market, the offline subscription yield remained stable compared to 2024, but accounts with a scale of 5 billion yuan and above saw a significant increase in yield [2][31] - The average first-day closing price increase was 227.90%, maintaining a high level, with no stocks experiencing a loss on the first day [2][41] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board had the highest average first-day closing price increase, while industries such as non-ferrous metals and social services performed notably well [2][50] Group 3 - In the secondary market, timing remained a key factor for improving investment returns and success rates, with new stocks listed during market sentiment lows or upward cycles performing better [2][8] - The average investment return in the secondary market was 14.53%, a slight decrease from 2024, but the investment success rate increased to 33.33% [2][8] - The ChiNext Board outperformed in both investment returns and success rates, with industries like electronics and social services leading [2][8]

判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口。大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从小盘切大 盘，从题材切质量。沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论能否成功践行理念，对 全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线索的全面演绎可能贯穿一 季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规模逐步向提质增效的转变。 配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估，化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的 底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始保持警惕。消费和地产链的躁动修复理应 发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 华泰证券：转向胜率思维 上周A股高位震荡，大盘价值占优。向后看，节前风险偏好抬升的制约因素偏多：外部，凯文·沃什或接任美联 储主席，由于其此前被认为是通胀鹰派，美元、美债利率上行，风险资产承压；内部，随着行情向白酒等估值 低位板块扩散，轮动加快下攫取超额收益的难度加大，技术性调整压力和长假效应下资金获利了结意愿上升。 但本轮春季行情启动的核心驱动并未发生根本性变化，春节后至两会前胜率提升，若市场调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with the core logic supporting the spring market remaining unchanged, and the precious metals sector expected to enter a wide fluctuation phase in the short term [1][6] Market Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is reported at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing sector activity [1] - The capital market service index is above 65%, reflecting high market activity in sectors such as monetary financial services and insurance [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with lower price increases but strong logical support, including storage chips, embodied intelligence, AI edge computing, energy storage, and the lithium battery supply chain [1][5] - Emphasize sectors mentioned in the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as commercial aerospace, 6G, nuclear power, hydrogen energy, quantum communication, and brain-computer interfaces [5] Precious Metals Sector - Banks have issued risk warnings regarding precious metals business, citing increased market uncertainty and price volatility, while still recognizing the medium to long-term investment value of gold and similar assets [2] - The precious metals sector is currently in a high congestion state after rapid previous gains, expected to enter a wide fluctuation phase, but the fundamental outlook remains positive due to unresolved supply-demand gaps [6] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is expected to significantly drive electricity demand, creating investment opportunities in the energy storage and power equipment sectors [6] - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to continue its upgrade trend driven by innovation, with a long-term positive outlook for globally competitive drugs and devices [7] - The technology growth sector is favored due to abundant liquidity and industry theme catalysts, with a focus on sectors supported by industry trends [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The analysts are optimistic about the equity market in February with a balanced style, while the bond market has an increased risk of adjustment [2][7]. - The marginal expansion of the real - sector balance sheet in February is highly certain, and the probability of a significant tightening of the capital market is low [2]. - In the context of the marginal convergence of the national balance sheet, the top - down subjective allocation strategy focusing on position selection and style analysis will gain more attention and favor from the market [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Asset - Liability Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In December 2025, the real - sector liability growth rate was 8.4% (previous value 8.6%). It is expected to drop to around 8.3% in January 2026, rebound slightly in February, and decline in March. The capital market tightened marginally last week. There is a risk of significant tightening in February, but the probability is not high [2][17]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 235.3 billion yuan (higher than the planned 141.3 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 721.4 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of December 2025 was 12.4% (previous value 13.1%), expected to rebound to around 12.6% in January 2026 and likely decline in February [3][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price increased, and the term spread narrowed. The one - year Treasury bond yield ended at 1.30% on the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and there may be a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in December 2025 continued to run smoothly compared to November. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 was around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It needs further observation whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Since 2011, China has been in a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which may have ended in Q4 2024, followed by a low - level narrow - range oscillation in the profit cycle. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016: stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, financial institutions benefiting the real economy, and "housing is for living in, not for speculation." Currently, the convergence of the liability side has not ended, but the space is limited [6][20]. - Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, the overall equity market declined, but value stocks strengthened. The long - end bond yield decreased slightly, and the short - end increased. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.81%, the one - year increased by 2 basis points to 1.30%, and the 30 - year remained stable at 2.29% [7][21]. - In February, the analysts are optimistic about the equity market with a balanced style and believe that the bond market has little investment value. They recommend a 50% position in the Shanghai Composite 50 Index and a 50% position in the China Securities 1000 Index [7][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [30]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding - out and Trading Volume - As of January 30, the top five crowded industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, machinery, and communication, with crowding - out degrees of 15.9%, 10.3%, 9%, 6.4%, and 6.2% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, social services, environmental protection, and steel, with 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.9% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding - out were non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, media, and communication. The top five with decreased crowding - out were power equipment, national defense and military industry, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [31]. - As of January 30, non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics had relatively high crowding - out quantiles since 2018, while pharmaceutical biology, transportation, light industry manufacturing, beauty care, and non - bank finance had relatively low quantiles [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 3.06 trillion yuan, up from 2.8 trillion yuan last week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, coal, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while national defense and military industry, automobiles, household appliances, commercial retail, and power equipment had the largest declines [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE(TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, communication, coal, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverage had the largest increases, while national defense and military industry, power equipment, computers, automobiles, and comprehensive industries had the largest declines [37]. - As of January 30, 2026, industries with high full - year 2024 earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, power, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - **External Demand**: It showed mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 in December to 50.4, and most of the disclosed PMI data of economies in January increased. The CCFI index fell 2.74% week - on - week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 13.4% in December and 33.9% in January. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 15.8% in November to 23.9% in December [42]. - **Domestic Demand**: The second - hand housing price increased last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries declined from September to October 2025, increased from November to December, and slightly declined in January. Automobile sales were weaker than the historical seasonality, new - home sales remained at the historical low, and second - hand home sales were stronger than the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of January (January 26 - 30), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% quantiles of weekly returns were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.4%, and - 0.6% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.08% [59]. - As of January 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 4.04 trillion yuan, up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [62].