来源：滚动播报 股市专业人士对美国股市能否延续上周人工智能引发暴跌后1万亿美元的反弹势头持谨慎态度。周五的 强劲反弹 —— 标普500指数创下5月以来最佳单日表现 —— 抹去了当周大部分跌幅。然而，投资者仍在 应对晦暗的经济前景，并对人工智能如何重塑各行业日益担忧，尤其是软件股这一当周动荡的核心领 域。周五强劲表现的表面之下，透露出市场对此次反弹信心不足的迹象。衡量标普500指数预期波动性 的指标高于今年均值，暗示市场仍存隐忧。成交量同样显示出缺乏热情，较五日均值低约13%。高盛做 空最严重的一篮子股票大涨约9%，创四月以来最佳单日表现，表明部分反弹源于交易员撤出对风险股 的做空押注。 ...

（本文作者温天为上海社会科学院市值管理研究中心特约研究员） 抛售潮持续发酵，AI成市场核心担忧 板块对比：半导体走强与软件抛售的核心逻辑 与软件形成鲜明对比的，是半导体板块在AI浪潮中持续走强。芯片需求的爆发，让市场一度产生"去周 期化"的错觉。但从博弈结构看，这更像是一场典型的囚徒困境：每一家云厂商都清楚，单独控制资本 开支才是长期理性选择；但在竞争尚未分出胜负之前，没有任何一方敢率先减速。结果是，个体理性叠 加成集体非理性，短期内推高了芯片需求和盈利预期。 在这样的背景下，当前的软件板块抛售，更像是一轮由叙事冲击触发的短期波动，而非商业模式的集体 失效。AI对软件行业的影响无疑深远，但这种影响更可能是渐进的、结构性的，而不是通过一次财报 季或几款工具的发布就完成重估。 投资启示：市场正经历情绪与结构的重新校准 对于长期投资者而言，真正重要的问题并不是"AI会不会颠覆软件"，而是：在资本竞赛尚未结束、叙事 仍然主导定价的阶段，该如何管理自己的行为节奏。在流动性市场中，信息往往并不稀缺，稀缺的是耐 心。当资本纪律重新回到定价核心，真正的分化才会开始。市场正在经历的，或许并不是一个时代的终 结，而是一次情绪与结 ...

Core Insights - The press conference highlighted the achievements of Guangdong's modern industrial system construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, showcasing significant advancements in various sectors. Group 1: Industrial Development - Guangdong's new industrialization has progressed significantly, with the AI core industry expected to reach a scale of 300 billion yuan by 2025, and the production of industrial and service robots ranking first in the country [1] - The province produced over 6.9 million civilian drones last year, maintaining its position as the national leader [2] - Guangdong's manufacturing sector includes 44 industrial products with over 10% national market share, 23 products with over 20%, and 11 products with over 30% [2] Group 2: Service Sector Growth - The quality and efficiency of the service industry have improved, with new business models like home services and fresh e-commerce emerging, leading to a projected 9.6 billion tourists and 1.24 trillion yuan in tourism revenue by 2025 [3] - The province has seen a significant increase in the number of listed companies, with over 220 new listings, bringing the total to 1,224 and a total market value of 30.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.6 trillion yuan [2] Group 3: Infrastructure and Innovation - By the end of 2025, Guangdong's high-speed rail operating mileage is expected to reach 3,411 kilometers, a 65.2% increase from 2020 [3] - The province has established six national manufacturing innovation centers and 28 key manufacturing pilot platforms, leading the nation in both categories [4] - R&D investment in Guangdong is projected to rise from 347.99 billion yuan in 2020 to 535 billion yuan by 2025, with R&D intensity increasing from 3.14% to 3.6% [4] Group 4: Agricultural and Consumer Sector - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in Guangdong is expected to reach 979.87 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [6] - The province's consumer goods replacement program achieved sales of 264.2 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the national total, benefiting 61 million people [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's ruling party won a two-thirds absolute majority in the parliamentary elections, leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index, which surged by 5% to reach a historical high [1][8] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured 316 seats in the House of Representatives, surpassing the absolute majority threshold of 261 seats out of 465, marking a record for the party since its establishment in 1955 [1][8] - The upcoming session of the House of Representatives in mid-February will focus on reviewing the budget bill, which is intended to support economic measures addressing rising prices and stagnant wage growth [1][8] Group 2 - The election results are seen as favorable for the market as they eliminate political uncertainty, allowing Prime Minister Takashi greater freedom in decision-making without the need for extensive negotiations [2][9] - The Nikkei 225 index initially rose to over 57,000 points during trading, reflecting strong market optimism following the election results [2][9] - The USD/JPY exchange rate weakened slightly to 156.62 yen per dollar, down from 157.10 yen at the previous close [3][10]

上周五美股强劲反弹，道指飙升逾1200点并首次突破50000点关口，但这场反弹非但未能安抚市场情 绪，反而加剧了投资者对后市波动的担忧。围绕人工智能颠覆效应和巨额AI支出回报率的疑虑依然挥 之不去，市场脆弱性暴露无遗。 周一亚洲股市大幅上涨，延续了上周五华尔街约2%的反弹势头。标普500指数上周五收复此前大部分跌 幅，全周几乎持平。此前几个交易日，软件股遭遇的抛售浪潮波及科技巨头、私募信贷市场乃至公司债 市场。投资者担心AI带来的行业颠覆可能比预期更广泛，且那些计划投入数千亿美元进行AI建设的企 业可能难以兑现高企的利润预期。 但市场反弹中的矛盾信号凸显了这种焦虑。尽管大盘飙升，亚马逊股价仍下跌5.6%，市值蒸发约1330 亿美元，此前该公司宣布今年将在AI相关项目上投入2000亿美元。Alphabet股价也下跌2.5%。四大超大 规模云服务商计划今年合计支出约6500亿美元。 这场动荡促使投资者重新审视仓位配置。部分机构计划削减科技股敞口，转而增持工业和材料板块。疲 软的经济数据进一步加深了市场的不安情绪，投资者正为更多波动做准备。 软件股抛售引发连锁反应 上周的市场动荡源于投资者对AI颠覆软件行业的担忧。 ...

今日港股全线反弹，恒生科技ETF易方达(513010)标的指数涨超1%，连续第二日上涨，该ETF已连续5日单日"吸金过亿"，自去年10月以来累计净流入额高达 119.9亿元。 港股上周伴随全球风险资产波动。全球软件行业回调、港股科技巨头入口补贴引发争议、美元反弹及商品市场余波未消等都导致市场日间和日内波动率有所 放大。 随着上周五美股报复性反弹，道指首破5万点，标普涨近2%，创去年5月以来最佳单日涨幅，英伟达大涨7%，港股今日也跟随反弹。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普近期公开表态，预计到其本届任期结束时，道琼斯工业平均指数将上涨至10万点，较当前水平实现翻倍增长。 美联储方面同步释放宽松预期，为市场提供政策支撑。旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利作为美联储中间派代表，其表态具有较强市场影响力。 她在近期接受媒体采访时表示，在利率问题上持非常开放的态度，鉴于当前美国劳动力市场疲软、物价上涨侵蚀工资收入等现状，支持今年进一步实施1至2 次降息操作，同时指出降息需建立在关税影响消退、通胀处于下行轨道的基础上。 与此同时，美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊对美国经济前景持谨慎乐观态度，他表示，强劲的生产率增长有望帮助通胀回落至美联储设定的 ...

格隆汇2月9日丨中国软件(600536.SH)在互动平台表示，麒麟软件与国外航天公司没有业务合作。 ...

2026年2月7日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 全球大类资产波动剧烈,A 股有望率先恢复上行 报告摘要 核心观点: | 作者 | | | --- | --- | | 董忠云 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 | | | 联系电话：010-59562478 | | | 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com | | | 刘庆东 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640520030001 | | | 联系电话：010-59219572 | | | 邮箱:liuqd@avicsec.com | | | 王警仪 | 分析师 | | SAC 执业证书：S0640525100001 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com | | | 庞晨 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书: S0640124040009 | | | 联系电话: | | | 邮箱: pangc@avicsec.com | | | 杨子萌 | 研究助理 | | SAC 执业证书:S0640124060008 | | | 联系电话: | | 邮箱：yangzm ...

Group 1: Software ETF Performance - The software ETF Huatai (159590) saw most of its constituent stocks perform positively, with Dongfang Guoxin rising over 16%, Wanjing Technology increasing by over 11%, and 360 reaching the daily limit [2] - Key stocks and their performance include: - 360 (601360): 4.03% weight, 9.97% increase, trading volume of 4.363 billion - Keda Xunfei (002230): 12.40% weight, 2.72% increase, trading volume of 2.972 billion - Tonghuashun (300033): 7.02% weight, 3.54% increase, trading volume of 2.591 billion - Dongfang Guoxin (300166): 0.92% weight, 16.83% increase, trading volume of 2.201 billion - Wanjing Technology (300624): 1.18% weight, 11.57% increase, trading volume of 2.154 billion [3] Group 2: AI Video Generation Technology - ByteDance's AI video generation model, Seedance 2.0, has gained significant attention for its ability to create high-quality videos from text or images in under 60 seconds, featuring multi-scene narratives [4] - The model addresses key pain points in AI video generation, such as controllability and coherence, and is expected to catalyze a rebound in AI applications [5][6] - The technology is seen as a turning point for video generation, shifting the focus from technical capabilities to content quality and narrative value [7][8] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment is currently at a low point, but the introduction of Seedance 2.0 is expected to stimulate the AI application sector, particularly in cloud services and computing [5] - Analysts predict that the AI industry will see significant growth as the technology matures, with a focus on AI applications and the integration of AI agents into business processes [10][11] - The evolution of AI agents is anticipated to lead to structural changes in the industry, with increased demand for hardware and a shift in application entry points [12]

Core Insights - The disruptive wave of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is spreading from the software industry into the financial markets, creating unprecedented uncertainty in the private credit bond market, which is valued at approximately $3 trillion [1][12] - The release of a new AI tool by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data supplier stocks, leading to significant declines in asset management companies heavily invested in private credit bonds [1][8] Group 1: Market Impact - The stock prices of major asset management firms with substantial private credit bond operations have experienced sharp declines, with Ares Management down over 12%, KKR down nearly 10%, Blue Owl Capital down over 8%, and TPG down about 7%, while the S&P 500 index only slightly decreased by approximately 0.1% during the same period [1][3] - Investors are increasingly uneasy about their exposure to the private credit bond market, particularly due to the software industry's significant concentration in this sector, which amplifies any disturbances [8][9] Group 2: Credit Quality Concerns - UBS has issued a stern warning that if the disruptive effects of AI accelerate beyond the adaptability of borrowing companies, the default rate in the U.S. private credit bond market could soar to 13% under aggressive scenarios, significantly higher than their estimates for leveraged loans (8%) and high-yield bonds (4%) [8][9] - The private credit bond market's heavy reliance on the software industry raises concerns about the quality of these assets, as any downturn in the software sector could lead to significant issues within investment portfolios [9][10] Group 3: Structural Risks - The structure of loans, particularly Payment-in-Kind (PIK) loans, exacerbates potential risks, as these loans allow borrowers to defer cash interest payments, which can become problematic if the borrower's financial situation deteriorates [10] - Moody's Analytics warns that the opacity of the private credit bond market complicates comprehensive risk assessment, highlighting the rapid growth of AI-related lending, rising leverage, and lack of transparency as significant warning signs [10][11] Group 4: Systemic Concerns - The market reassessment triggered by AI occurs against a backdrop of existing scrutiny of the private credit bond industry, which has long been criticized for high leverage and valuation opacity [12] - The private credit bond market, which has favored corporate software companies since 2020, must now prepare for the disruptive impacts driven by AI technology, prompting investors to reevaluate financing transactions that involve opaque, illiquid loans, especially those exposed to technological change risks [12]