Core Viewpoint - Daqing Petrochemical has successfully initiated large-scale exports of aviation kerosene, marking a significant step in diversifying its refining product portfolio and expanding its sales channels to international markets [1][3]. Group 1: Export Achievements - Daqing Petrochemical's first large-scale export of 10,000 tons of aviation kerosene to Southeast Asia represents a new pathway for the company [1]. - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Daqing Customs facilitated the inspection and release of 2,031 batches of various chemical products, totaling 390.95 million tons with a value of $3.322 billion, exporting to over 20 countries and regions [3]. - The number of export batches for chemical products from Daqing has increased by more than five times compared to the previous five-year period, achieving a historical high [3]. Group 2: Supportive Measures - Daqing Customs has implemented a "one-on-one" support strategy for major exporting companies, addressing the complexities of exporting hazardous chemicals like gasoline and diesel [4]. - Innovative regulatory models have been introduced, including a "testing + conformity verification" assessment and a pilot reform for batch inspections of hazardous chemicals, reducing overall inspection and release times by over 70% [4]. - Daqing Refining's green methanol product has achieved over 100% carbon reduction, positioning it among the top globally, with customs providing timely guidance for documentation and export declaration processes [5]. Group 3: Future Directions - Daqing Customs aims to focus on the construction of the petrochemical industry system, enhancing smart customs initiatives and promoting the export of more chemical products to the global market [5]. - The ongoing efforts will support the development of related industries, emphasizing quality improvement, innovation, and efficiency enhancement [5].

Group 1 - The domestic refined oil prices in China are set for their first adjustment of the year on January 6 at 24:00 [1] - Due to the weak performance of international crude oil prices during the current adjustment cycle, the expected increase in refined oil prices is around 30 yuan per ton [1] - This increase is below the adjustment red line of 50 yuan per ton, making it likely that the adjustment will be suspended [1]

Group 1 - The global naphtha market is currently in a state of divergence, with expectations of this trend continuing into 2026 [1] - In Asia, the market faces pressure from weak petrochemical profits due to ongoing capacity optimization and uncertainties in Russian naphtha supply [1] - The European naphtha market is primarily characterized by structural contraction, while the US market is expected to experience a moderate recovery [1] Group 2 - In Asia, the restructuring plan of the South Korean petrochemical industry is a key focus, with plans to reduce ethylene capacity by 2.7 to 3.7 million tons per year by August 2025 [1] - Japan's naphtha demand is declining steadily due to low petrochemical product profits and planned facility shutdowns, with significant reductions in ethylene production capacity in the Chiba region [2] - Uncertainties surrounding Russian supply have led to decreased purchasing interest from buyers in Asia, although current market supply remains adequate [2] Group 3 - In Europe, traditional oil-based naphtha demand is expected to decrease at an annual rate of 1.2% due to deepening carbon neutrality policies and refinery shutdowns [3] - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is projected to increase production costs by $25 per ton, further suppressing demand [3] - In the US, naphtha demand growth is anticipated to rebound to 1.8% due to the easing of ethane substitution effects and the commissioning of new petrochemical projects along the Gulf Coast [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CP prices of propane and butane in January strengthened beyond expectations, but domestic demand remained stagnant. The combustion demand was basically maintained but weakened year - on - year. Although the chemical demand maintained high - level operation, the profits were deeply in the red, and it was hard to say that the demand was improving. In the short term, the PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures first declined and then rose, with a fluctuation range of 4,000 - 4,140 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices increased, and international LPG first declined and then rose. The domestic LPG market had both rising and falling prices, with the trading center slightly declining. Affected by both domestic and foreign long and short factors, the PG futures trended in a volatile manner. The domestic import arrivals dropped significantly, and the terminal inventory was at a low level. However, the combustion demand was flat, and the fundamentals were both long and short. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 289 yuan/ton, in South China was 429 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 234 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was designated in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 524,400 tons (a 1.18% increase), including 219,000 tons of civil gas (a 0.41% increase), 187,900 tons of industrial gas (a 0% change), and 79,000 tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrivals last week were 31,000 tons (- 53.77%). In East China, some refineries increased their external releases, and in the Northwest, some enterprises reduced their internal supplies. Additionally, the operation of some refinery units was unstable. The weekly commercial volume increased [4]. 3.3 Demand - In winter, the heating demand was maintained, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. The absolute value of the PN spread narrowed, and the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material weakened. Constrained by the weak downstream olefin demand, the substitution effect was limited. At the same time, the supply in the Chinese propylene market was in serious surplus, the PDH units were operating at a high load, and the unit profit losses intensified, suppressing the propane procurement. Driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders had a strong demand for MTBE. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units were operating at a high start - up rate. Although the profits were increasingly in the red as the raw material prices rose, the rigid demand was relatively resilient [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant LPG inventory was 157,600 tons (- 10.47%), and the port inventory was 233,730 tons (a 1.35% increase). In some domestic regions, affected by snow and rain and sufficient supplies, the shipments of refineries declined to varying degrees, ultimately leading to a slight increase in the storage capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. At the ports, the arrivals of ships decreased significantly this period, and the import resources were insufficient. The terminals mostly consumed their own inventories. In terms of demand, the chemical demand changed little, the port trading volume remained stable, and the demand change was limited. Affected by the decline in supply, the port inventory showed an obvious downward trend [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 289.80 yuan/ton in East China, 475.80 yuan/ton in South China, and 191.80 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 6,398 lots, with the lowest deliverable location in Shandong, and the number of lots increased by 30 [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rate of PDH was 76.36%, MTBE was 58.12%, and alkylation was 36.38%. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 226 yuan/ton, the alkylation in Shandong was - 769 yuan/ton, and the MTBE isomerization was - 385 yuan/ton [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.30 (a 4.15% increase), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was 119 yuan/ton (an 11.21% increase). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, and the crude oil returned to a bearish trend. The oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - In December, the PMI rebounded comprehensively and beyond the seasonality. The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 month - on - month to 50.1, the non - manufacturing PMI increased by 0.7 month - on - month to 50.2, and the comprehensive PMI increased by 1.0 month - on - month to 50.7, reversing the slowdown trend in the previous two months. The central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting stated that it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. The EU extended its economic sanctions against Russia for another six months. The US economic growth exceeded expectations, and gold, silver, and copper reached new highs. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and President Maduro and his wife were arrested [4]. 3.9 Investment Views - The short - term PG price is expected to maintain a range - bound operation, with a downward trend in the price center [4]. 3.10 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, going long on SC and short on PG, and going long on PP and short on PG [4]. 3.11 Refinery Unit Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of major refineries and local refineries in China, including information such as refinery names, locations, processing capacities, maintenance units, maintenance capacities, start times, and end times [13]. 3.12 LPG Factory and PDH Unit Maintenance Data - It includes the maintenance data of LPG factories and PDH units, such as production enterprises, locations, maintenance units, normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [14][15]. 3.13 Price and Spread Charts - There are multiple price and spread charts in the report, including CP propane and butane prices, FEI and MB propane and butane prices, price ratios with WTI and Brent, various spreads, and price trends of LPG in different regions, as well as the relationship between LPG and other related products [16][22][26]

当前，柴油需求持续回落，航煤需求则稳步增长。中韩石化采用"液相加氢"技术，通过对柴油馏分精准 分离，提取与航煤沸程相近组分并转化为优质航空煤油，在提升产品价值的同时，可实现单位能耗降低 50%。该项目投产后，中韩石化将压减30万吨柴油产能，新增120万吨航煤产能，航煤总产能将达到160 万吨/年。 中化新网讯 近日，中韩石化120万吨/年液相航煤加氢装置实现机械竣工。该项目在不增加原油加工量 的前提下，推动中韩石化由传统车用燃料向高附加值航空燃料战略转型。 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil significantly increased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage significantly decreased in inventory, ARA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory, Fujairah's residual oil decreased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage decreased in inventory, and EIA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, which has a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [6]. Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.66, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 0.83, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.38, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -6.29, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 7.12, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -0.16, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -0.83 [3]. Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 0.51, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by -1.75, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -4.87, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by 0.26, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.30, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by -6.80 [3]. Spot Data - From December 26 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore FOB 380cst changed by -0.04, FOB VLSFO changed by -2.74, 380 basis changed by -0.55, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by -1.6, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 0.0 [4]. Group 4: Domestic FU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed by -75, FU 05 changed by -20, FU 09 changed by -18, FU 01 - 05 changed by -55, FU 05 - 09 changed by -2, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 57 [4]. Group 5: Domestic LU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed by -245, LU 05 changed by -40, LU 09 changed by -32, LU 01 - 05 changed by -205, LU 05 - 09 changed by -8, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 213 [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then impact LPG prices; the overseas LPG market remains supported in the near - term. The domestic LPG market shows an over - valued situation between domestic and foreign markets but a low basis. The feedback of poor PDH profits may occur, and the decline in the premium indicates a bearish driver. Future attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Price Changes - This week, the domestic LPG market fluctuated. It rose on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 month - spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 month - spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+3) [1]. - Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil LPG at 4250 (-20); in East China, it was 4376 (-8), and in South China, it was 4590 (+80) [1]. - The overseas market rose. The official January CP prices opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1]. Price Spread and Premium Changes - The PG - FEI spread reached 85 (+25). The East China propane arrival premium was 66 (-18). The January FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively [1]. - Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPI spread was -15 (a month - on - month decrease of 5.5) [1].

随着沪指以"11连阳"结束2025年征程，A股主要股指以全线飘红的成绩迎来2026年。 每经品牌100指数2025年整体保持震荡上行，年涨幅达到15.21%，年K线实现"两连阳"，最终以1145.49 点报收。 分析认为，进入2026年，"十五五"产业指引、海外流动性宽松、国内政策托底效应等多重利好因素释 放，将继续为A股市场提供支撑。 A股市场情绪明显回暖 智能云业务迎来高增长 货币政策上，2025年12月美联储降息如期落地，但FOMC（美国联邦公开市场委员会）内部分歧进一步 加大，2026年一季度美联储降息步伐被认为或有所放缓；此外，2025年12月日本央行加息落地，0.75% 的利率水平创30年来新高。国内环境方面，2025年11月出口延续强韧性，CPI（消费者物价指数）同比 涨幅继续修复，但消费与投资等内需端指标整体偏弱，制造业PMI（采购经理指数）时隔9个月重新升 至扩张区间；2025年12月两场重要会议相继召开，为2026年经济工作定向，并将扩大内需、培育新动 能、化解风险等作为重点任务，旨在推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，确保"十五五"良好开 局。 有券商机构指出，2025年12月下旬沪 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "spring market excitement" has begun early, characterized by a clear "structural lead and opportunity rotation" feature, with technology remaining dominant [2][3][16] - The current market adjustment was primarily driven by three factors: overseas liquidity disturbances, concerns over AI bubble risks during the US earnings window, and relatively mild economic data, all of which are now diminishing [14][15][16] - The A-share market is entering a pre-heating and layout window for the "spring market excitement" of 2026, with structural opportunities emerging in sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals [3][16] Group 2 - The report highlights that the rise in non-ferrous metals is driven by multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry fundamentals, capital allocation, and geopolitical issues, rather than a single cause [4][29] - The report notes that the current Chinese consumer market shows a clear characteristic of "total pressure but structural recovery," with structural highlights in both traditional and emerging consumption sectors [5][31][32] - The investment strategy suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, emphasizing the importance of PPI improvements and the benefits of "anti-involution" policies in sectors like non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, chemicals, steel, and machinery [6][34][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - term, it is likely that the valuation of asphalt will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [15]. - In the short - term, considering that most of the crude oil is in maritime inventory and mostly distributed in the Asia - Pacific region, the upward range of oil prices due to geopolitical situations is limited, but the valuations of heavy oil and asphalt will significantly benefit. It is recommended to go long on the asphalt cracking spread during the period when the maritime inventory cannot be fully released [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January 2025 to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are situations of supply - demand increase, cost decrease, etc. [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes has improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [15]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising and overall imports remain strong. Demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all demand segments are weak and downstream shipments are flat. Inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking and domestic total inventory exceeds expectations. The cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and is in a weak shock process. The previous month's view was to wait and see, while this month's view is to go long on the asphalt cracking spread [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [19][21][23]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt from 2021 to 2025, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][46]. - **Imports**: It includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, the import profit from different regions, and the cumulative import volume from countries such as South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia [51][54]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the ratio trends of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - **Refinery Profit**: It presents the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][63]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [68]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract from 2021 to 2025 [71]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It shows the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [74]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [78][80][84]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [89][92]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [94][97][104]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [105][109]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management industries, as well as the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [112][113]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures from 2021 to 2025 [123][121]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It includes exploration and extraction links [127][128]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [131].