Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - No relevant content found Summary by Catalog Price - On July 18, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon - iron natural block was 5200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Qinghai 72 was 5200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 72 was 5150 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan [2]. - The latest price of Jiangsu 72 silicon - iron qualified block was 5600 yuan, with no daily or weekly change; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (trader price) was 5470 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan; the latest price of Tianjin 72 (export price in US dollars) was 1005 dollars, with a weekly decrease of 5 dollars; the latest price of Tianjin 75 (export price in US dollars) was 1055 dollars, with a weekly decrease of 5 dollars [2]. - For silicon - manganese, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Ningxia 6517 was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Guizhou 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Yunnan 6517 was 5600 yuan, with no change; the latest price of Guangxi 6014 was 5100 yuan, with no change [2]. - The latest price of Ningxia 6517 (trader price) was 5600 yuan, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the latest price of Jiangsu 6517 (trader price) was 5770 yuan, with a weekly decrease of 30 yuan [2]. Supply - The report shows long - term trends of production - related data such as the monthly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China, the weekly production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China (with a capacity share of 95%), and the monthly capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon - iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - It also presents the long - term trends of the weekly production of silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [6]. Demand - The report provides long - term trends of demand - related data such as the estimated and revised monthly production of crude steel in China, the monthly production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the monthly demand for silicon - manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data), and the monthly export volume of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in China from 2021 to 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - The report shows long - term trends of inventory - related data such as the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in China, the weekly inventory of 60 sample silicon - iron enterprises in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, the daily total number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast of silicon - iron, and the daily inventory average available days of silicon - iron in East China, South China, and the North from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - It also presents the long - term trends of inventory - related data for silicon - manganese, including the daily total number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast of silicon - manganese, the daily inventory average available days of silicon - manganese in China, and the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - The report shows long - term trends of cost - profit - related data such as the electricity prices for ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, the mainstream market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi, the production profit of semi - coke in China, the market price of 98% silica in the northwest region of China, the market price of 70% iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang, the production cost of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, the profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia converted to the main contract on the futures market, the spot profit of silicon - iron in Ningxia, and the export profit of 75% silicon - iron from 2021 to 2025 [5]. - It also presents the long - term trends of cost - profit - related data for silicon - manganese, including the profit of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the North region, and the South region (according to Steel Union's data), the profit of silicon - manganese in Guangxi converted to the main contract on the futures market, and the profit of silicon - manganese in Ningxia converted to the futures market from 2021 to 2025 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On July 17, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block was 5200, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100; the latest price of Shaanxi 75 was 5650, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 50. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1005 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 17, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5600, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100; the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 80 [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly output data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the weekly output data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China (with a production capacity accounting for 95%) is also shown. The monthly capacity utilization rate data of 136 silicon iron production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 is provided [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly output data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is presented, and the monthly procurement price and quantity data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon manganese 6517 from 2021 - 2025 are also shown [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The monthly production forecast data of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025, the daily price data of metal magnesium in Fugu, the export price data of metal magnesium in Tianjin Port, the monthly production data of stainless - steel crude steel in China, and the monthly procurement volume and price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for FeSi75 - B silicon iron from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The monthly demand data of silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025, the monthly production forecast data of crude steel in China, and the monthly export volume data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample enterprises of silicon iron in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025, the daily total number of silicon iron warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily effective forecast data of silicon iron, and the daily inventory average available days data of silicon iron in East China, South China, North China, and China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts on CZCE, the daily total effective forecast data of silicon manganese, the daily warehouse receipt + effective inventory data of silicon manganese, the daily single - side trading position data of silicon manganese on CZCE, the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and the monthly inventory average available days data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The daily electricity price data of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, the daily market mainstream price data of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi, the weekly start - up rate data of semi - coke in China, the daily production profit data of semi - coke in China, the daily market price data of 98% silica in Northwest China, the daily market price data of 70% iron oxide scale in Shijiazhuang, the production cost data of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, and the profit data of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia converted to the main contract and spot from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North China, and South China (according to Steel Union's caliber) from 2021 - 2025, the profit data of silicon manganese in Guangxi and Ningxia converted to the main contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and oscillating trend. The market's expectation of "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" has failed. The static fundamental contradictions are not obvious at present, and the market still needs to pay attention to further policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July. At the same time, it is necessary to track the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - The short - term trend of iron ore prices is strong with oscillations, and attention should be paid to risk control after increased fluctuations. In the future, it is necessary to focus on changes in market sentiment and the macro - realization nodes [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in speculation and pay attention to price fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. It is recommended that speculators be rational, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [14][15]. - The short - term price of glass is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term. The short - term price of soda ash rebounds due to market sentiment, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction still exists in the medium term, and the trend is expected to be weak [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 96,689 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main contract position was 2.137057 million lots, a decrease of 16,795 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 62,501 tons, a decrease of 2086 tons. The main contract position was 1.549973 million lots, a decrease of 16,803 lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The market atmosphere was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products oscillated weakly. The "Shantytown Renovation 2.0" expectation has failed. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory increased slightly, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. The inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a low level in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 773.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.78% (+6.00), and the position increased by 21,689 lots to 690,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.1402 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 758 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.80 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.95% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable in the latest period. Australia's shipment continued to decline due to port maintenance, Brazil's shipment increased significantly, and the shipment from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume continued to increase. The daily average pig iron output decreased to 2.3981 million tons. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory continued to increase [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated slightly lower, closing down 0.59% at 5750 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 140 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) oscillated lower in the morning and accelerated its decline in the afternoon, closing down 1.57% at 5408 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5450 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 42 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is driven by sentiment and expectations. The fundamental situation points downward, with an over - supplied industrial pattern, weakening future demand, and downward adjustment space for the cost of manganese ore and electricity [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: On July 16, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) oscillated lower, closing down 1.14% at 8685 yuan/ton. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 265 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The industrial silicon still faces problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe on Wednesday was 1164 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes (-2.87%) from the previous period. The short - term price is mainly oscillating and strong, and it is recommended to avoid short positions and wait and see in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1195 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.884 million tons, an increase of 20,600 tons (1.11%) from the previous week. The demand is still weak, and the supply is loose in the medium term, with large inventory pressure. The short - term price rebounds due to market sentiment, but the trend is expected to be weak in the medium term [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Market Analysis: The price center of ferrosilicon has shifted downward, and alloy enterprises have been in long - term losses. Affected by weak terminal demand in the black series and cost reduction, the ferrosilicon price has oscillated downward. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and even well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia had different degrees of losses. In June, with the stabilization of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price rebounded slightly. After July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price [2]. - Supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the ferrosilicon price. From January to March 2025, some regions still had profits, and alloy production remained at a relatively high level. In April, as regional profits declined, ferrosilicon production also decreased to some extent, but it still showed positive year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon production increased by 2.1% year - on - year. Without a significant increase in demand, the year - on - year increase in production suppressed the price of ferrosilicon. In June, the average monthly loss in well - cost - controlled regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 300 yuan/ton [2]. - Downstream steel enterprises had decent profits, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory increased. From January to June 2025, due to the concession of steel raw material suppliers, steel enterprises had a good profit rate. With decent profits, steel mills replenished their stocks to some extent. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, showing a year - on - year increase. The available days of inventory in South China reached 17 days [3]. - Steel demand remained weak, but anti - involution and other factors boosted market confidence. Against the background of still - abundant ferrosilicon production capacity, the profit level of ferrosilicon was restricted, and the ferrosilicon price showed an oscillating trend. Anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Currently, the ferrosilicon price is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and all regions are still in losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution on loss - making products and the impact of electricity prices on costs [3]. - Strategy: None [4] Summary According to the Catalog I. Ferrosilicon Market Review In late January 2025, driven by the black sector market, the price of ferrosilicon alloy increased to a certain extent. By early February, the ferrosilicon price reached a relatively high level. Then, as coal prices fell and electricity prices in some regions were adjusted downward, the alloy price weakened further. From March to May, affected by tariff disturbances and weak market expectations, bulk commodities were under pressure, and the ferrosilicon price continued its downward trend. After June, with the stabilization and rebound of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price increased to a certain extent. In July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price [12]. II. The Price Center of Ferrosilicon Has Shifted Downward, and Alloy Enterprises Have Been in Long - Term Losses From January to June 2025, the overall cost center of ferrosilicon shifted downward. After April, affected by the decline in electricity prices and coal prices, the ferrosilicon price oscillated downward, and alloy enterprises took the initiative to reduce production due to profit pressure. Another important factor in ferrosilicon cost is semi - coke, which accounts for about 25% of the cost. In 2025, the semi - coke price dropped significantly, leading to a decrease in ferrosilicon cost. In June, due to safety and environmental inspections in coal - producing regions, coal supply contracted, and the price stabilized and rebounded, followed by a certain increase in the alloy price. In July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. In the first half of the year, the semi - coke market reached a relatively low price in the past four years, falling below 600 yuan/ton, and the rebound was limited. The prices of silica and oxidized iron scale used in ferrosilicon production fluctuated slightly and had limited impact on costs. The silica price dropped in the first half of the year and then remained relatively stable, while the oxidized iron scale showed an overall oscillating downward trend and was at a five - year low. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia also had different degrees of losses, with the loss in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia exceeding 300 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the average monthly production profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia was positive. After April, these regions gradually suffered losses, and the losses were severe in June. In July, with the increase in the ferrosilicon price, the average loss of ferrosilicon showed a decreasing trend [14]. III. Supply Increased Year - on - Year, Suppressing the Ferrosilicon Price According to Steel Union data, in June 2025, ferrosilicon production was 414,000 tons, a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. Overall, from January to June 2025, total ferrosilicon production was 2.691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Although the production increased year - on - year, it was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. The year - on - year increase in production further suppressed the ferrosilicon price. In the first half of 2025, the ferrosilicon market lacked positive factors, which affected production. In May, some large factories stopped production for maintenance. In June, Ningxia and Shaanxi showed an increasing trend in production due to cost advantages [26]. IV. Steel Enterprises Had Decent Profits, and Downstream Enterprises Replenished Their Stocks to Some Extent Downstream enterprises had good profitability. Taking Tangshan as an example, hot - rolled coils and threaded steel maintained profitability. Nationwide, the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises remained above 50%. With decent profits, steel enterprises had fewer maintenance and production - reduction situations, and the molten iron production remained at a high level. At the same time, steel enterprises replenished their stocks when the alloy price was relatively low. In 2025, the procurement price of steel enterprises decreased significantly, and the ferrosilicon procurement price was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with a downward trend in the first half of the year. With relatively low procurement prices, downstream steel enterprises increased their procurement volume, and the inventory days of downstream enterprises increased. In June, the inventory days in North China, East China, and South China were higher than the same period last year, with the available days of inventory in South China reaching 17 days. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, higher than the inventory level in the same period in 2024. The main downstream sectors of ferrosilicon are steel consumption, stainless steel, and magnesium metal consumption. As of early July, the consumption of ferrosilicon in the five major steel products decreased by 2.0% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production of stainless steel crude steel increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the consumption of ferrosilicon increased accordingly, while the cumulative production of magnesium metal changed little. From January to May 2025, ferrosilicon exports decreased, with a year - on - year decline of 14.2%. The year - on - year increase in ferrosilicon supply and the decline in steel demand and exports led to a higher inventory level in alloy enterprises compared to the same period last year. In June, there was a concentrated cancellation of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts, and recently, the number of warehouse receipts has shown an increasing trend. According to Huatai Futures' calculation, the overall inventory situation of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the total inventory in the three - link system is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [37]. V. Conclusion The price center of ferrosilicon has shifted downward, and alloy enterprises have been in long - term losses. Affected by weak terminal demand in the black series and cost reduction, the ferrosilicon price has oscillated downward. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon enterprises were in long - term losses, and well - cost - controlled regions like Ningxia and Inner Mongolia also had different degrees of losses. In June, with the stabilization of coal prices, the ferrosilicon price rebounded slightly. After July, anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Supply increased year - on - year, further suppressing the ferrosilicon price. From January to March 2025, some regions still had profits, and alloy production remained at a relatively high level. In April, as regional profits declined, ferrosilicon production also decreased to some extent, but it still showed positive year - on - year growth. From January to June 2025, ferrosilicon production increased by 2.1% year - on - year. Without a significant increase in demand, the year - on - year increase in production suppressed the price of ferrosilicon. In June, the average monthly loss in well - cost - controlled regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia still exceeded 300 yuan/ton. Downstream steel enterprises had decent profits, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory increased. From January to June 2025, due to the concession of steel raw material suppliers, steel enterprises had a good profit rate. With decent profits, steel mills replenished their stocks to some extent. As of June, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills were 15.38 days, showing a year - on - year increase. The available days of inventory in South China reached 17 days. Steel demand remained weak, but anti - involution and other factors boosted market confidence. Against the background of still - abundant ferrosilicon production capacity, the profit level of ferrosilicon was restricted, and the ferrosilicon price showed an oscillating trend. Anti - involution boosted market sentiment, and significant increases in the coal and steel sectors drove up the ferrosilicon price. Currently, the ferrosilicon price is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, and all regions are still in losses. Attention should be paid to the impact of anti - involution on loss - making products and the impact of electricity prices on costs [63].

Summary of Conference Call on Black Commodity Market Outlook Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the black commodity market, focusing on coking coal and steel industries, with references to policies affecting these sectors, particularly the "anti-involution" policies and their implications for supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy Context**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2015 supply-side reform, targeting downstream industries like photovoltaics, automobiles, and new energy, aiming for new capacity trading rather than direct production cuts [1][2]. 2. **Coking Coal Market Dynamics**: - Coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate between 900-920 RMB, influenced by supply reductions due to environmental inspections and market sentiment [1][7][19]. - The sustainability of the recent price rebound is contingent on supply, demand, and market sentiment, with potential pressures from increased supply as inspections ease [7][19]. 3. **Iron Ore vs. Coking Coal**: - Coking coal has a lower import dependency (13%) compared to iron ore (80%), leading to different market behaviors and pricing structures [10][11]. - The iron ore market is more market-driven, with significant price adjustments when costs are breached, while coking coal is more susceptible to policy changes [10][11]. 4. **Profit Distribution Changes**: The profit distribution within the black commodity chain is shifting, with coal price declines benefiting steel mills and mines, leading to lower ratios of rebar to coking coal [13][21]. 5. **Potential Trading Opportunities**: - There are potential short-selling opportunities in the iron alloy market, particularly for manganese silicon, due to low capacity utilization and price pressures [8][9][20]. - The steel industry is facing challenges due to reliance on exports and weak domestic demand, which could further pressure profits [9][21]. 6. **Future Policy Implications**: - The implementation of anti-involution measures may initially impact state-owned enterprises more than private ones due to operational flexibility [3][16]. - The potential paths for implementing these policies include industry self-regulation, price controls, and carbon tax reforms [3][4][16]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment and External Factors**: Recent rebounds in black commodity prices are attributed to macroeconomic recovery expectations, changes in supply-demand relationships, and international market fluctuations [5][6][18]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Environmental inspections have led to temporary supply reductions, contributing to price increases, but these effects may diminish as inspections are lifted [7][19]. - **Steel Production Trends**: Steel production has seen a year-on-year decrease, indicating a contraction in the industry, which may affect future pricing and profitability [9][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the black commodity market, particularly focusing on coking coal and steel industries.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on July 16, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 100; the latest price of Inner Mongolia 72 was 5250, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 150; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1005, with a daily and weekly decrease of 5. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 100 [2]. - The report shows historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, futures contract prices, and spreads between different contracts [3][4][6]. Supply - The report presents historical data on the production of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, including monthly production of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China and weekly production of silicon manganese in China [4][6]. - It also shows the capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 [4]. Demand - The report provides historical data on the demand - related indicators of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, such as the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (Steel Union caliber), the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese [4][6][7]. Inventory - It shows historical inventory data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises of silicon ferroalloy in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and the inventory - related data of silicon manganese such as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [5][7]. Cost and Profit - The report presents historical cost - profit data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, including the production cost, profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [5][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent bidding prices for silicon iron have shown slight increases across various steel mills, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] - Fujian steel mill announced a silicon iron bidding price of 5550 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 20 CNY/ton from June [1] - A steel mill in North China set its silicon iron bidding price at 5600 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 4500 tons [1] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve moderately due to the recent bidding prices, although actual demand remains limited due to the traditional off-season [2] - The current mainstream quotation for silicon iron 75B is around 5300 CNY/ton, with cash-inclusive prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranging from 5465 to 5779 CNY/ton [2] - The SF2509 futures contract exhibited a wide fluctuation today, closing at 5494 points, indicating mixed market sentiment with price movements near short-term averages [3] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the silicon iron market may maintain a stable trend in the short term, with limited potential for significant price adjustments [6] - Industry confidence appears to be somewhat cautious due to ongoing reports of steel mill production cuts and the deepening traditional demand off-season [6] - Close monitoring of supply-demand dynamics, raw material price trends, and futures performance is recommended for future market outlooks [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on July 15, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5200, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 export (in US dollars) was 1010, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5600, with a weekly increase of 50, and the latest price of Guangxi 6517 was 5650, with a weekly increase of 80 [2]. - The report also presents historical price trends of various silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese products from 2021 - 2025, including market prices in different regions, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [3][4][6]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including weekly production and procurement data from Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - The report shows the demand - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, such as the estimated demand for silicon manganese (in ten thousand tons) and the procurement volume of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][6][7]. - It also includes data on the production of related downstream products, such as the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel crude steel [4]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including weekly inventory in different regions, and data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory - related data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including daily warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast quantity, and inventory average available days, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (in tons) [7]. Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials like semi - carbonated manganese ore and lanthanum charcoal, and production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [5][6][7]. - The profit - related data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are also provided, including spot profit, profit after converting to the main contract, and export profit [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For silicon - manganese, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment, with prices oscillating strongly. However, the supply - demand situation will gradually return to a loose state, and the medium - term price may face downward pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5500, 6000] [3][4]. - For silicon - iron, the short - term market is also sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within a range, with the reference range for the main contract being [5300, 5750] [49][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates continued to rise, with more restarts in Yunnan. The overall supply is at a high level for the same period [3][10]. - Demand: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased to 239.81 tons, but the absolute level is still high, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese demand. The procurement volume of the iconic steel mill in July increased, but the price - pressing sentiment remains [3][16]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased slightly, while the delivery inventory continued to decline but remains at an absolute high level [3]. - Cost - Profit: Manganese ore prices showed a split, with oxide ore prices falling and semi - carbonate ore prices rising slightly. The actual transaction of manganese ore was average. Power costs in multiple production areas decreased, reducing the loss degree but the whole production area is still in a loss state [3]. - **Market Review** - Spot market: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by 30 - 80 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Supply: Production continued to rise, with stable operations in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia and more restarts in Yunnan [10][11]. - Demand: Hot - metal output and rebar production decreased [12][16]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The inquiry price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, and the procurement volume increased by 2900 tons [19]. - Inventory: The alloy factory inventory decreased by 0.15 tons week - on - week [20]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in the production area was reduced compared with last week [22]. - Manganese ore price: Port manganese ore prices decreased slightly [26][27]. - Manganese ore shipment data: The shipment and arrival volume continued to rise, and the port clearance volume declined from a high level [32]. - Manganese ore port inventory: Port inventory remained at a low level, with the national port inventory increasing by 2.6 tons and Tianjin Port inventory increasing by 3.5 tons [34][36]. - Manganese ore manufacturer inventory: The average available days of manganese ore inventory increased in most areas [38]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [39][40]. Silicon - Iron - **Supply - Demand Analysis** - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly, with restarts and shutdowns in different areas. The overall operation in Ningxia was relatively stable [49]. - Demand: Steel mills' new round of tenders has started, and the procurement volume of the iconic steel mill increased. Non - steel demand for magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the export volume from January to May decreased by 14.17% compared with the same period last year [49]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week, and the delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 9.9 tons [49]. - Cost - Profit: The semi - coke market was weakly stable, and electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas, reducing the loss degree in some areas [49]. - **Market Review** - Spot price: Spot prices in the main production areas rose by different degrees [53][55]. - Supply: National production and operating rates decreased slightly [56][57]. - Steel demand: The weekly demand for silicon - iron decreased [60]. - Hebei Steel's tender: The procurement volume increased by 500 tons compared with June [63]. - Non - steel demand: Magnesium ingot production decreased in June, and the silicon - iron export volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [64][66]. - Inventory: Enterprise inventory increased by 0.32 tons week - on - week [67]. - Cost - Profit: The loss degree in some production areas was reduced compared with last week [69]. - Other costs: Electricity prices decreased in multiple production areas [71].

Report Date - The report is dated July 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Steel Market**: Last week, the steel market was driven by supply - side "anti - involution" and production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi. With the expectation of a central urban work conference, the market speculated on policy dividends. The overall sentiment was optimistic, pushing up prices. In the short - term, the market may continue to rise due to strong macro - optimism and speculative inventory locking, but export orders and production in the home appliance and auto industries are declining [3] - **Iron Ore Market**: The recent sharp rise in iron ore prices is driven by rumors, low valuation, improved fundamentals, and policy catalysts. Currently, prices are mainly driven by expectations, and the short - term fundamentals are favorable, but there is high short - term uncertainty [18] - **Coal and Coke Market**: Recently, the macro - environment has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coal and coke market. In the short - term, the market may continue to be strong, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap for coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] - **Ferroalloy Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, ferroalloys have been rising slowly, but the long - term trend is weak due to steel mills' price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate between sentiment - driven factors and real - world constraints [52] - **Soda Ash Market**: Affected by expectations and fundamental limitations, soda ash prices are rising. The supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related disturbances [63] - **Glass Market**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the glass market is strong. The supply side has a combination of ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varies by region. Attention should be paid to cold - repair expectations and speculative demand [86] Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3288 yuan/ton. The spot price of rebar in China was 3292 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Analysis**: The market was driven by supply - side policies and demand - side policy expectations. The inventory was low, and the speculative demand was rising, but export orders were decreasing [3] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 766.5 yuan/ton. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 750 yuan/ton [19] - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, the 45 - port inventory was 13765.89 tons, and the global shipping volume was 2987.1 tons [26] - **Market Analysis**: The price increase was driven by multiple factors, and the short - term fundamentals were favorable, but there was high uncertainty [18] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton. The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1200 yuan/ton, and the Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1270 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the market may be strong due to good downstream profits, but in the long - term, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and the high iron - making volume may not be sustainable [32] Ferroalloy - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 90 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of silicon - iron in Ningxia was 5300 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5600 yuan/ton [53][54] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" sentiment, the market rose slowly, but the long - term trend was weak due to price - pressing and cost reduction. The market may oscillate [52] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1311 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1241 yuan/ton. The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [64][65] - **Market Analysis**: Affected by expectations and fundamentals, the price was rising. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak, with an overall supply - surplus situation [63] Glass - **Prices**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1232 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract was 1086 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis in Shahe was 79.4 yuan/ton [88] - **Market Analysis**: Driven by "anti - involution" expectations, the market was strong. The supply side had ignition and cold repair, and the inventory situation varied by region [86]