Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand and production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. Due to a sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coal - coke and iron ore prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a short - term rapid rise but faced resistance from the 60 - day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The mid - term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel products also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 - contract price broke through the middle Bollinger Band but faced resistance from the dense trading area, remaining in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures price decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil futures price also decreased slightly from the previous day but increased from last week. Some spot prices increased, while others decreased [3]. - **Production and Profitability**: The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.88 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.96%. National rebar and hot - rolled coil production decreased last week, with rebar production dropping by 4.10% and hot - rolled coil production by 1.41% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major steel products decreased. Rebar social and steel - mill inventories decreased by 2.34% and 3.85% respectively, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly by 0.01%, and steel - mill inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 0.73% compared to last week, with rebar and hot - rolled coil showing similar downward trends [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of iron ore increased compared to the previous day and last week. For example, the DCE iron ore主力 contract settlement price increased by 0.44% compared to the previous day and 3.80% compared to last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand is expected to decline as steel mills cut production. Supply - side global shipments are decreasing, and port inventory is rising. The arrival volume is expected to decline in the future [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [5]. Industry News - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: Shanxi Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380m³ blast furnace for maintenance on November 23, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.45 million tons and wire rod production by about 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 20.04 million tons compared to last Monday. From November 10 to 16, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 22.7 million tons, reaching the highest level since the fourth quarter [7]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment**: In the second week of November 2025, Brazil shipped 1705.39 million tons of iron ore, with a daily average shipment of 170.54 million tons per day, a 3.23% decrease compared to November last year [7]. - **Glass Deep - Processing Orders**: As of November 17, the average order days of national glass deep - processing sample enterprises decreased by 8.9% compared to the previous period and 24.2% year - on - year [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend with weak upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products. The current situation of the iron ore market is weak, and there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, with high supply and limited improvement in demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be oscillating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Although the terminal consumption of ore has increased, the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with limited room for improvement. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has been continuously decreasing, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and reached a high for the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. The supply of foreign ore remains active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. - Thanks to the switch of the arbitrage logic and the improvement of ore demand, the ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, due to the high supply, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hainan Mining Co., Ltd. experienced an abnormal trading fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price increase exceeding 20% over two consecutive trading days on November 14 and 17, 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Stock Trading Abnormality - The company's stock price fluctuation is classified as an abnormal trading situation according to the Shanghai Stock Exchange trading rules [2][4]. - The cumulative closing price increase of the stock over the specified days was over 20% [2][4]. Group 2: Company Operations and Major Events - The company confirmed that its production and operational activities are normal, with no significant changes in market conditions or industry policies [5]. - There are no undisclosed major events or significant information that could affect the stock's trading, including major asset restructuring or significant transactions [6]. - No media reports or market rumors have been identified that could significantly impact the company's stock price [7]. Group 3: Insider Trading and Sensitive Information - During the period of abnormal stock trading, there were no transactions involving the company's stock by directors, senior management, or major shareholders [8]. Group 4: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a net profit of 312 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.84%, influenced by declining iron ore and crude oil market prices [9].

研究所 黑色研发报告 铁矿石日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 792.0 | 788.5 | 3.5 | I01-I05 | 34.5 | 32.0 | 2.5 | | DCE05 | 757.5 | 756.5 | 1.0 | I05-I09 | 23.5 | 24.5 | -1.0 | | DCE09 | 734.0 | 732.0 | 2.0 | I09-I01 | -58.0 | -56.5 | -1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 787 | 778 | 9 | 857 | 61 | 93 | 117 | | 纽曼粉 | 789 | 779 | 10 | 855 | 59 | 91 | 115 | | 麦克粉 | 785 | 775 | 10 | 856 | 59 | 91 | 116 | ...

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某美 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3190 | 30 | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3240 | 3210 | 30 | 143 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3270 | 50 | 223 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3147 | 3105 | 42 | 73 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3192 | 3144 | 48 | 28 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3097 | 3053 | 44 | 123 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3260 | 50 | 8 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3190 | 20 | -92 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3270 | 50 | -3 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the trading volume of Dazhong Mining reached 2.405 billion yuan, marking the highest level since May 24, 2021 [2] - The latest stock price of Dazhong Mining increased by 1.65%, with a turnover rate of 5.77% [2] - The trading volume for the previous trading day was 2.126 billion yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market shows mixed trends. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the production of five major steel products decreased. The supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced after production and inventory reduction, while the supply - demand of hot - rolled coils is basically balanced with high - level inventory. There is a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain, and it is not recommended to go long. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is advisable to close the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage. A short - side attempt can be made on a single - side basis [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures continued to rebound. The global shipment volume increased this week, and the port arrival volume decreased, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise. The demand side shows a weakening trend. The port inventory is accumulating, but the inventory of deliverable products is low. It is expected that the iron ore will show a high - level oscillating trend, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal markets are also complex. The coking coal futures showed a low - level oscillating trend and a sharp decline at night. The coke futures followed the coking coal to fall at night. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are still at a high level this year, but the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading with a wait - and - see approach [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of rebar increased from 3105 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping from - 68 to - 94 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a 1.1% rise. The production of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a 2.6% decline. The rebar production decreased by 8.2 to 200.0, a 4.1% decline, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.5 to 313.7, a 1.4% decline [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a 1.7% decline. The rebar inventory decreased by 16.4 to 576.2, a 2.8% decline, while the hot - rolled coil inventory remained basically unchanged [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.0 to 13.4, a 28.4% rise. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 860.6, a 0.7% decline. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.2 to 216.4, a 1.0% decline, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.7 to 313.6, a 0.2% decline [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased, such as the price of Carajás fines increasing from 882.0 yuan/ton to 892.0 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spreads between different contracts also showed different trends, like the 1 - 5 spread increasing from 27.0 to 29.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 472.3 to 2268.9, a 17.2% decline, while the global weekly shipment volume increased by 447.4 to 3516.4, a 14.6% rise. The monthly national import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a 10.6% rise [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9, a 1.1% rise. The daily average port ore - clearing volume increased by 6.0 to 327.0, a 1.9% rise. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.6 to 6555.0, a 0.8% decline, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 149.0 to 7200.0, a 2.0% decline [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 1.5 to 15129.71, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 66.1 to 9076.0, a 0.7% rise [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 51 to 1713, a 3.1% rise, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 to 1689, a 0.6% decline. The price of coking coal in some regions remained stable [8]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 to 63.0, a 0.9% decline, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 46.2, a 0.2% rise. The production of raw coal and clean coal in coal mines increased [8]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, which is the demand for coke. The demand for coking coal is related to the production of coke [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, and the coking coal inventory showed different trends in different sectors, with some increasing and some decreasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory, and the iron ore and coking coal and coke markets have cost support. The macro - environment has slightly improved risk appetite, and the third round of the fifth batch of central ecological environmental protection inspections has been launched, which may affect steel production [3][4][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The decline in rebar demand slowed down, and the decline in inventory increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils changed little, and the decrease in production slowed down the increase in total inventory. The end of the US government "shutdown" slightly improved market risk appetite, and prices were supported at low levels. Futures fluctuated, and most spot prices remained stable [9]. - Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, and futures prices of related contracts also generally rose. The long and short positions of some contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads of some products changed. Rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [10]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil production both decreased slightly. Rebar blast furnace and electric furnace production decreased. The blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly [13][15][17]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils improved compared with the previous period [27]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions increased [31]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased more, and both factory and social inventories declined. The increase in hot - rolled coil inventory slowed down, with social inventory stable and factory inventory rising slightly [36][40]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land improved compared with the previous period. In the automotive market, in October 2025, automobile production and sales continued to rise both month - on - month and year - on - year [45][48]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly [53]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal increased month - on - month, and the port clearance volume continued to increase [58]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to rise, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises increased slightly [63]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level [70]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased slightly [75]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased, and the inventory of coking plants decreased slightly. The port inventory of coke decreased, and the inventory of coking plants remained at a low level [84][90]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continued [96]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread of rebar increased slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore increased [102][106].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jinling Mining's stock price has dropped by 5.01%, currently trading at 9.86 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.87 billion CNY [1] - Jinling Mining, established on September 28, 1996, and listed on November 28, 1996, is primarily engaged in iron ore mining and the production and sale of iron concentrate, copper concentrate, cobalt concentrate, and pellet ore [1] - The revenue composition of Jinling Mining is as follows: iron concentrate accounts for 76.99%, pellets 9.03%, other (supplementary) 8.46%, copper concentrate 5.10%, and mechanical processing 0.41% [1] Group 2 - Guotai Fund's Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210) has entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Jinling Mining, holding 3.0028 million shares, which is 0.5% of the circulating shares [2] - The Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF was established on January 22, 2020, with a latest scale of 3.66 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 33.9% [2] - The fund's performance over the past year is a return of 32.58%, ranking 1224 out of 3956 in its category [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].