Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle logic of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous pressure of oversupply. The supply may increase as the wet season approaches, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is mixed, and it is necessary to wait for the inventory to reach a healthy level [3]. - Polysilicon is in the logic of strong supply and weak demand. The photovoltaic rush has overdrafted some future demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the situation of the polysilicon industry [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.2%, a daily increase of 4.11%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 95.9% [2]. - The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 445 yuan (5.73%); the trading volume is 1,643,648 lots, with a daily increase of 413,341 lots (33.60%); the open interest is 386,361 lots, with a daily increase of 25,285 lots (7.00%) [9]. Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when the product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, short the futures (SI2509) with a hedging ratio of 30%, sell call options (70%), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there is a production plan and a risk of raw material price increase, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include limited short - term cost collapse space, low profit valuation, and increased probability of supply - side disturbances; downstream enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season will reduce production costs and increase profits, promoting production enthusiasm [6]. - Bearish factors include the approaching wet season leading to increased production capacity in Southwest China and the possible joint production cuts of downstream polysilicon enterprises, weakening demand [7]. Spot and Basis - The latest price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.76%); the basis of East China 553 is 440 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-40.14%) [14]. - The latest price of East China 421 industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan (1.7%); the basis of East China 421 is 740 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 295 yuan (-28.5%) [14]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 51,916 lots, a decrease of 221 lots (-0.78%) [23]. Polysilicon Price and Volatility - The strong pressure level of the polysilicon futures main contract is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.74%, a daily increase of 8.28%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 83.73% [2]. - The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 35,050 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,350 yuan (7.19%); the trading volume is 411,586 lots, with a daily increase of 150,096 lots (57.40%); the open interest is 95,005 lots, with a daily increase of 33,809 lots (55.25%) [25]. Risk Management Strategies - Similar to industrial silicon, for inventory management, short the futures (PS2509) and use options strategies; for procurement management, buy long - term futures contracts and use options strategies [2]. Market Analysis - Bullish factors include possible future production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry and the market's trading of the phenomenon of futures - end positions and warehouse receipts [6]. - Bearish factors include the failure of polysilicon enterprise integration and elimination, and the increase in production due to low raw material prices and the approaching wet season [7]. Spot and Basis - The price of polysilicon spot has increased. For example, the price of re - feeding material is 32.5 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 1 yuan (3.17%) [31]. - The basis of the polysilicon futures main contract is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan (-26.92%) [31]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 2,600 lots, a decrease of 180 lots compared to the previous day [35]. Other Related Data - The silicon chain index is 0.3577, with a daily increase of 0.0279 (8.46%) [32].

贵金属产业日报 2025-07-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 776.04 | -0.06 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8747 | -63 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 168596 | 1131 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 249023 | -15701 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 143164 | 3150 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 91814 | 972 | | 现货市场 | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18456 | 3 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1338659 | -185 | | | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 772.9 | 4.71 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8734 | 46 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -3.14 | 4.77 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | -13 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月02日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.40%,成交量6.89万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为2560手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交7.43万手，比上一日减少7349手。全合约前20席位多头持仓11.81万手，比上一日增加3700 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.36万手，比上一日增加3656手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓25049、国泰君安，总持仓18711、东证期货，总持仓13132；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓15270、银河期货，总持仓14229、中信期货，总持仓13227； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓6843、增仓561，国泰君安、持仓14742、增仓544，东证期货、持 仓12389、增仓288；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓20511、减仓-148，宏源期货、持仓3727、减仓-96，海通期货、持 仓1702、减仓-13； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓14440、增仓1353，中信期货、持仓10524、增仓971，西部期货、 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月02日收盘主力合约工业硅2509,涨跌+4.79%,成交量164.36万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为45874手。 工业硅期货全合约总计成交201.46万手，比上一日新增44.89万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓38.55万手，比上一日增加3.89万手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓44.61万手，比上一日增加3.91万手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓46040、中信建投，总持仓36781、中信期货，总持仓32313；空头前三 席位为国泰君安期货，总持仓61910、中信建投，总持仓37797、银河期货，总持仓37486； 2025年7月2日工业硅主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 415.774 | 114,599 | 国泰君安期货 29,231 | | 4,177 | 国泰 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The fundamentals of the tin market remain stable. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the tin price. Positive factors include the easing of China-US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the lower-than-expected resumption of production in Myanmar. Negative factors are the volatility of tariff policies, the resumption of production in Myanmar, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion to a contraction cycle [3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 269,840 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 15.08%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 28.6% [2] - For inventory management with high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell call options (SN2508C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell put options (SN2508P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] Market Data Futures Data - The latest prices of Shanghai tin futures (main, continuous 1, and continuous 3) are 269,840 yuan/ton, 269,840 yuan/ton, and 269,520 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,750 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 185 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 0.55%. The Shanghai-London ratio is 7.92, with a daily decrease of 0.09 and a daily decrease rate of -1.12% [6] Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, and various types of solder bars and lead-free solder have different weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,800 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.06% [9] Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,263.89 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 948.87 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -5.51%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [14] Inventory Data - The latest warehouse receipt quantities of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (total, Guangdong, and Shanghai) and the LME tin inventory have different daily changes. For example, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,750 tons, with a daily increase of 199 tons and a daily increase rate of 3.04% [16]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 2, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,640 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 9.54%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 11.2% [2] 2. Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure), suggest selling 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and selling 25% of the call option CU2508C82000 when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure), suggest buying 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. News and Factors Important News - The copper fundamentals remain stable [3] Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing and a decrease in LME inventory levels [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, the Fed maintaining high interest rates, the US dollar index hovering at a low level, and an increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [5][6][8] 4. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - Shanghai Copper main contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); Shanghai Copper consecutive first contract: 80,640 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan (0.96%); Shanghai Copper consecutive third contract: 80,100 yuan/ton, no daily change (0%); LME Copper 3M: 9,943 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars (0.66%); Shanghai - London ratio: 7.95, up 0.04 (0.51%) [7] Spot Data - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 80,205 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (0.27%); Shanghai Wumaotrade: 80,160 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (0.28%); Guangdong Nanchu: 80,110 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.28%); Yangtze Non - ferrous: 80,360 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan (0.34%) [9] 5. Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 2,161.28 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (1.41%); reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,501.4 yuan/ton, up 0.3 yuan (0.02%); price advantage (tax - included): 659.88 yuan/ton, up 29.7 yuan (4.71%) [11] 6. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories Warehouse Receipts - Total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts: 25,851 tons, up 505 tons (1.99%); total International Copper warehouse receipts: 2,503 tons, no change (0%) [14] Inventories - LME copper inventory: total 91,250 tons, up 625 tons (0.69%); COMEX copper inventory: total 211,209 tons, up 7,874 tons (3.87%) [16][18] 7. Copper Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 1,484.84 yuan/ton, down 623.83 yuan (- 29.58%); copper concentrate TC: - 43.57 US dollars/ton, no change (0%) [19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that precious metals, particularly gold, are experiencing a rebound, influenced by economic data and market conditions, with a focus on upcoming U.S. employment data [1][2][3] - Guotou Futures notes that the recent drop in the dollar to a three-year low has supported the rebound in precious metals, although there was a slight pullback after the release of economic data [1] - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 from $3015 to $3215 per ounce, citing increased market risks and rising U.S. government debt [3] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicates that the London spot gold price has continued its upward trend, surpassing $3300 per ounce, with attention shifting towards tariffs as the 90-day exemption period approaches [2] - Marex analysts suggest that rising U.S. debt and inflationary pressures from proposed tax cuts and spending will likely benefit gold prices, as gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset [3] - The market anticipates that central bank gold purchases will slow if prices exceed $3300 per ounce, but demand may increase if prices correct to around $3000 per ounce [3]

观点：持仓观望，不建议追高 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货日报 2025年7月1日 资金面依然偏紧 source： wind,同花顺,南华研究 T主力：净基差与基差 source： wind,南华研究 元 T净基差：主连 T基差：主连 10/31 12/31 02/28 04/30 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 盘面点评： 国债期货开盘后窄幅震荡，盘中启动价格走高，午后先下后上最终长端明显收涨。现券方面日内节奏跟期货 基本一致，早盘盘中和下午收盘前是利率有所回落，结构上，受资金面影响，日内短债弱于长端。公开市场 方面，今日7天期逆回购到期4065亿，央行新做1310亿，净回笼2755亿元 日内消息： 1.中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 行情研判： 日内资金依旧偏紧，尽管从资金价格来看，DR001加权回到1.36%，DR007下行37bp回到1.54%，交易所资 金价格也都明显回落，但盘中经纪商报价隔夜依旧在1.5%以上，早盘资金面情绪指数偏高，指向流动性并没 有完全回归充裕状态。午后随着 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index continued to rise, with the CSI 300 index closing up 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.842 billion yuan. Among the stock index futures, IF decreased in volume, IH and IC increased in volume, and IM decreased in volume. [2] Group 3: Important News - Tariff Announcement: With only 10 days left until the "tariff deadline" on July 9, Trump clearly stated that there is no need to extend the upcoming tariff deadline. He will directly send letters to hundreds of countries to notify them of the tariff rates and will no longer conduct individual trade negotiations. [3] Group 4: Core View - Market Outlook: The stock index continued to rise today, but the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink. There is a lack of positive information to drive the index up, and the future strength of the RMB exchange rate remains to be seen. The market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of this round of the stock index rise is uncertain. If the trading volume continues to shrink and the upward momentum weakens, a short - term adjustment is expected. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold and wait for further development [5] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.03 | 7.0001 | -0.8991 | 23.8772 | -0.5835 | | IH | 0.08 | 3.2102 | -0.8576 | 8.3173 | -0.2668 | | IC | 0.01 | 6.8686 | -0.2617 | 22.0821 | -0.054 | | IM | -0.36 | 18.1858 | 0.9846 | 32.7974 | 1.0329 | [5] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Index Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.11 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.03 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 146.6015 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | -20.842 | [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 1, 2025 - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0019531) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of asphalt remain resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. Affected by the decline in the risk premium of crude oil, the asphalt basis strengthened, and the crack spread also strengthened, still remaining in a high range. Looking forward, the overall supply is in the seasonal resumption of production, but limited by the poor profit of refined oil products and the limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. From August, the construction conditions in the north and south are good, and the overall construction enters the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 has accelerated, and the funds have been alleviated. As it is the final stage of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the number of projects is guaranteed to a certain extent, and the peak season is still expected [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3,400 - 3,750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.89%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 52.15% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in asphalt prices, for enterprises with long spot positions, to prevent inventory losses, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3,650 - 3,750 yuan/ton [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to orders, for those with short spot positions, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton [2] Core Contradictions - Supply and demand are resilient. This week, production increased by 20.5% year - on - year, demand increased by 19% year - on - year, and sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased significantly, and social inventory changed little. The basis and crack spread strengthened but remained in a high range. Supply is in seasonal resumption, but limited by refined oil profit and local refinery profitability. Demand will enter the peak season in August, with improved funds and guaranteed project numbers [3] 利多解读 - Not provided in the report 利空解读 - Short - term demand is dragged down by the plum rain season in the south; the easing of the Middle East situation leads to the regression of the war premium of crude oil [5] Price and Basis Crack Spread - The daily and weekly changes in spot prices in different regions (Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, South China) are different. The basis and crack spread of different regions also show different daily and weekly changes [6] Seasonal Charts - Include asphalt 09 contract basis seasonality in different regions (Yangtze River Delta, Northeast, Shandong, North China), asphalt futures month - to - month spreads (06 - 09, 09 - 12) seasonality, and the seasonality of domestic asphalt factory and social inventory rates [9][14][15] Other Data - Include the total number of combined orders and the total number of warehouse receipts of asphalt [19]