现货 白银周二突破53美元/盎司，再创历史新高。2025年初至今，白银已经累计飙涨84%，涨幅远超 黄 金的56%。高盛近日发表报告指，要对白银价格的上涨保持谨慎。分析师表示，白银的市场规模小、缺 乏央行支撑，使其波动性远高于黄金。一旦近期避险情绪出现变化，白银可能会面临比黄金更大的下行 风险。由于美联储可能会再降息，高盛预期白银中期很可能会继续上涨。 ...

原标题：美国高盛集团等研究报告显示—— 美国经济分析局的数据显示，作为美联储核心通胀指标，8月美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格 指数同比上涨2.9%，为2月以来新高水平。高盛集团预测受关税推动，年底该指数将升至3%，今年以来 关税已累计推升核心个人消费支出价格0.44%。上游生产端的成本压力更为显著，美国劳工统计局8月 发布数据显示，7月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比涨幅0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅；同比涨幅达 3.3%，远高于6月份的2.3%和市场预期的2.6%，为今年2月以来最高水平。美国有线电视新闻网指出， 生产商成本的急剧上升，预示着更高价格将很快转嫁给消费者。 耶鲁大学预算实验室日前发布研究显示，新加征关税已将美国平均有效关税率推升至18.3%，创 1934年以来最高水平。该实验室评估，这些加征关税预计今年将使美国家庭平均额外支出增加2400美 元，其中服装、鞋类价格短期内可能分别上涨38%和40%。更值得关注的是，关税本质上属于累退税， 在短期内尤为明显。这意味着，如果以税负占收入的比例衡量，收入最低的家庭承担的关税负担会远重 于收入最高的家庭，这无疑将进一步加剧社会分配不公。 分析认为 ...

高盛警告，虽然白银同样受益于私人投资流入，但由于缺乏央行结构性购买支撑，其价格波动性显著高于黄金，即使投资资金小幅撤离也可能引 发白银价格的大幅调整。 据追风交易台消息，高盛在10月12日的报告中表示，随着美联储降息吸引资金流入，白银中期走势仍有望进一步上涨，但短期内面临的波动性和 下行风险远超黄金。 分析师表示，白银市场流动性较差且规模仅为黄金市场的九分之一，这放大了价格波动幅度。且白银是唯一缺乏央行结构性买盘支撑的大宗商 品，任何投资流入的暂时回落都可能引发不成比例的价格修正。 高盛估算，1000吨白银流入通常推动银价上涨约1.6%。由于白银市场规模较小且流动性不足，相同规模的资金流动对银价的影响被显著放大。 伦敦市场流动性紧张加剧涨势 高盛指出，近期白银价格飙升部分源于伦敦市场的流动性紧张局面。今年早些时候由于对美国潜在关税的担忧，大量白银被运往美国，导致作为 全球白银交易中心的伦敦库存降至低位。 私人投资驱动贵金属联动 高盛表示，白银和黄金价格通常相互关联，因为两者的主要驱动力——私人投资流入都呈同步变动趋势。这种联动性历史上将金银价格比维持在 45-80的宽幅区间内。 然而自2022年以来，随着央行 ...

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached historic highs, with gold surpassing $4,000 and silver hitting a 45-year peak, drawing significant market attention [1][2] - Despite the recent surge, there are concerns about short-term volatility, leading some institutions to adopt a cautious stance on precious metals [1][3] Market Performance - On October 14, gold futures rose initially but faced a significant drop, with gold futures down 3% at one point and silver futures fluctuating over 6%. By the end of the day, gold futures closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 2.7%, while silver futures closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, also up 2.64% [2] - The London spot market saw gold prices recover above $4,100 after a brief decline [2] Drivers of Price Movement - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to the "TACO trade" initiated by the Trump administration, alongside a liquidity crisis in the silver market that has driven prices higher [2][4] - The Philadelphia Fed's new chair's support for two more rate cuts this year, combined with the fragile Middle East ceasefire, has contributed to the bullish trend in precious metals [2] Institutional Outlook - Major U.S. institutions express a consensus of being "long-term bullish but short-term cautious" on precious metals. Bank of America raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing support from unconventional policies [3] - Goldman Sachs also sees potential for silver price increases driven by private investment inflows but warns of liquidity risks [3][5] Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, with London spot inventories down 75% since 2019, leading to soaring leasing rates and increased delivery costs for short sellers [4] - Year-to-date, silver prices have risen nearly 80%, outperforming gold recently [4] Long-term Investment Considerations - Despite gold's rise above $4,000, its unique safe-haven value remains highly regarded, with suggestions for investors to allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold [6] - Goldman Sachs predicts further increases in gold prices, raising its 2026 forecast to $4,900, driven by central bank diversification and expected rate cuts [7] - The ongoing strong performance of gold in 2025 is attracting renewed investor interest, with ETF inflows turning positive [8]

| | | | | Difference from July | | | Difference from April | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Projections | | 2025 WEO Update1 | | | 2025 WEO1 | | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | | World Output | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | | Advanced Economies | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | | United States | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | | Euro Area | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | | Germany | -0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | ...

【摩根大通报告2025年第三季度净利润为144亿美元 同比增长12%】 凤凰网财经讯 10月14日，美股三大指数集体低开，道指跌0.86%，纳指跌1.43%，标普500指数跌 1.01%。 纳微半导体涨超24%，此前公司宣布在为英伟达数据中心基础设施研发芯片方面取得进展。稀土概念股 大涨，Critical Metals涨超29%，USA Rare Earth涨超6%。 公司消息 【花旗第三季度每股收益1.86美元 预计2025年支出将高于534亿美元】 花旗第三财季FICC销售和交易收入40.2亿美元，预估37.4亿美元；股票销售和交易收入15.4亿美元，预 估13.3亿美元；投资银行业务营收11.7亿美元，预估10.5亿美元。第三季度每股收益1.86美元。花旗预计 2025年支出将高于534亿美元。 【京东回应下场造车：三方联合推出 不直接涉及制造】 京东今日宣布联合宁德时代旗下的时代电服和广汽集团，在11月9日共同推出一款新车。不少媒体据此 解读为京东正式进军汽车业，下场造车并将推出京东品牌的汽车。据此，京东方面独家回应《科创板日 报》称：这款新车是三方联合推出，京东主要提供用户消费洞察和独家销售，不直接 ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index rebounded by 1.6% on Monday, recovering from a 2.7% drop the previous Friday due to renewed tariff tensions, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1] - Market observers from Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, and JPMorgan caution that investors eager to "buy the dip" should remain vigilant, as short-term volatility risks have not dissipated, compounded by high valuations and uncertainties surrounding government shutdowns and trade [1][4] - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a 5% pullback for 97 consecutive trading days, significantly exceeding the long-term average of 59 days, indicating accumulating pressure for a correction [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson suggests that while pullbacks may present long-term buying opportunities, short-term risks persist, with a pessimistic scenario predicting the S&P 500 could drop to 5800 points, a 13% decline from Monday's close if U.S.-China trade tensions remain unresolved before the November deadline [4] - JPMorgan's global market intelligence head Andrew Tyler maintains a bullish stance but warns of high valuations, concentrated positions, and the difficulty of achieving a trade truce, urging caution among investors [4] - Evercore ISI's chief strategist Julian Emanuel notes that the sell-off from last Friday is not fully over, with increased uncertainty potentially leading to reductions in active fund holdings, and highlights that the S&P 500 is currently in an overbought state after a 36% increase since April's low [4] Group 3 - On a technical level, Fundstrat's global technical strategist Mark Newton observes that the recent sell-off brought the S&P 500 down to a critical trendline support level, suggesting a 5% pullback could pave the way for further gains by year-end [5] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index (VIX) closed at 21.66 last week, which is considered "calm" by historical standards, but there is an increase in demand for "right-tail hedging," indicating that the market is beginning to guard against extreme downside risks [5] - Hedge fund telemetry founder Thomas Thornton emphasizes that the influx of computer strategies, hedge funds, and retail investors into large tech stocks could lead to painful reversals if the market turns, and the expansion of leveraged ETF assets adds to the risk [5]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs (GS.US) reported record third-quarter revenue driven by a recovery in trading activities, exceeding expectations [1] - The firm's revenue increased by 19.5% year-over-year to $15.18 billion, marking the highest third-quarter revenue in its history and the third-highest revenue across all quarters [1] - Earnings per share reached $12.25, also surpassing market expectations [1] Investment Banking Performance - Investment banking fees totaled $2.66 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.18 billion [1] - Advisory revenue was $1.4 billion, equity underwriting revenue was $465 million, and debt underwriting revenue was $788 million, all surpassing forecasts [1] - Global transaction value exceeded $1 trillion in the third quarter, marking only the second occurrence of this milestone on record [1] Trading Activities - Fixed income trading revenue was $3.47 billion, narrowing the gap with the leading equities trading division, which reported $3.74 billion in revenue, below expectations [1] - Trading activities have remained active since the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration, which caused fluctuations in stock, currency, and bond markets [1] Asset and Wealth Management - The total management fee income for Goldman Sachs' Asset and Wealth Management division reached a historic high [2] - The assets under management in this division increased to a record $3.45 trillion [2] - The firm announced the acquisition of a venture capital firm and plans to expand its private market business to compete with larger rivals [2]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs reported a net revenue of $15.18 billion for Q3 2025, indicating strong financial performance [1] Revenue Breakdown - Investment banking revenue amounted to $2.66 billion, showcasing the company's robust advisory and underwriting services [1] - Consulting revenue reached $1.4 billion, reflecting the demand for strategic advisory services [1] - FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) sales and trading revenue was $3.47 billion, highlighting the strength in trading activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to determine the sustainability of the bull market [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, slightly up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second leverage indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently around 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume - A significant trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan is a crucial indicator for sustaining a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes surpassing this threshold for five consecutive days, suggesting potential for continued market momentum [20][21]. - The margin financing balance has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan observed in 2015, indicating a strong presence of leveraged funds in the market [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The scale of newly issued public funds is another critical indicator. Currently, the average weekly fundraising for public funds is 11 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the peak seen during the 2021 bull market, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a high level [24][26]. - The number of new trading accounts opened is also a vital metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peaks of previous bull markets, suggesting that the current market is still in its early stages [33][34]. Group 4: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators discussed, the A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet. This suggests that investors can hold their positions but should be cautious about entering the market at current levels [37][39].