Market Performance - The A-share market has shown poor profitability this week, with only 11% of respondents reporting profits, while 89% reported losses [7] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.90% this week [2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a bearish outlook, with 38% of respondents expecting the market to trade sideways and unable to reach 4000 points [8] Sector Performance - All major industry indices saw declines, with the power equipment sector leading the losses at 10.54%, followed by comprehensive and basic chemical sectors [3] - The banking sector experienced the smallest decline at 0.89%, indicating relative stability compared to other sectors [3] Fund Flow - A total of 249.32 billion yuan in net outflow was recorded from A-share main funds this week, with all 31 major industry sectors experiencing net outflows [3] - The power equipment, electronics, and pharmaceutical sectors saw the highest net outflows, amounting to 50.52 billion yuan, 38.39 billion yuan, and 25.76 billion yuan respectively [3] Investor Sentiment - A survey indicated that 26% of investors increased their positions, while 18% reduced their holdings, reflecting a cautious approach to market conditions [4] - The proportion of investors holding less than 50% of their positions increased, indicating a shift towards more conservative investment strategies [4] Future Outlook - Respondents remain optimistic about the long-term trend of the A-share market, with 50% believing the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4000 points [10] - The military industry sector has seen a significant increase in positive sentiment, rising by 9 percentage points to 12%, indicating growing interest in this area [12] Industry Trends - The military industry is expected to experience significant growth driven by domestic and international demand, with key factors including the "14th Five-Year Plan" and military trade developments [13] - Analysts predict a shift towards high-end demand and improved financial health within the military sector, with a focus on new combat capabilities and military-civilian integration [13]

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, at the 27th and 51st percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical data [2][5] - The STAR 50 Index shows a significantly high PE of 145.1x and a PB of 5.7x, at the 95th and 60th percentiles, suggesting extreme valuation levels [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2][7] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon futures prices increasing by 7.8%, while the average price of silicon wafers decreased by 0.9% [2][3] - Battery materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate have seen a significant price increase of 15.4%, with a cumulative rise of nearly 180% over the past quarter [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while cement prices have stabilized with a 0.4% increase in the national cement price index [2][3] - Glass prices have shown volatility, with a 3.9% decrease in spot prices, indicating a challenging market environment [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has decreased by 0.8%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the agricultural sector [2][3] - The aviation sector has shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in passenger turnover for October 2025 [2][3] Technology and TMT - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The export value of optical communication modules has decreased by 16.9%, reflecting challenges in the international market [2][3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.8%, closing at $62.51 per barrel, indicating fluctuations in the energy market [2][3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 7.1%, suggesting a rise in shipping demand [2][3]

Core Insights - Liu Xiaoming, the manager of Xinda Australia Fund, has achieved remarkable success, with his fund's net asset value soaring from 0.4 yuan to 1.52 yuan within a year, resulting in a 12-fold increase in scale to 4.487 billion yuan [1][15][30] Fund Performance and Strategy - The fund initially focused on consumer stocks but faced challenges as these stocks weakened in early 2023, leading to a significant decline in performance [5][6] - Liu shifted his strategy to invest heavily in the liquor sector, including top brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, but this move also faced difficulties due to high inventory levels in the industry [6][10] - In mid-2024, Liu made a bold decision to pivot towards the AI sector, allocating nearly 70% of the fund's assets to electronics and communications, which proved to be a timely and successful move [10][12] Market Trends and Predictions - The AI sector is anticipated to be a major market driver by 2025, supported by ongoing demand for computing power and advancements in AI technologies [10][12] - Liu's strategic investments in PCB companies and leading CPO stocks have led to significant gains, with the fund's performance increasing by over 80% in a single quarter [14][15] Fund Size and Implications - The fund's size increased dramatically from 344 million yuan to 4.487 billion yuan in just one quarter, enhancing its ability to invest in large-cap stocks [15][17] - However, the rapid growth in size has introduced challenges, such as reduced flexibility in trading smaller stocks and increased difficulty in adjusting positions [18][20] Industry Context - The success of Liu's fund reflects broader trends in the AI industry, driven by national initiatives and increased capital expenditure from major tech companies [25] - The story serves as a reminder of the importance of a fund manager's ability to assess market trends and adjust strategies accordingly, especially in a rapidly evolving sector like AI [27][28]

周度报告——股指期货 股市高位回调，但政策呵护可期 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a全ry]球股市下跌，A 股跌幅较大 股 指 期 货 本周（11/17-11/21）以美元计价的全球股市大跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 2.48%，其中前沿市场（-1.07%）>发达市场（-2.32%）>新 兴市场（-3.73%）。印度股市跌 0.70%跑赢全球平均，中国股市 跌 5.52%全球表现最差。中国权益资产涨跌大跌，分市场看，中 概股>A 股>港股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 18652 亿元，环 比上周（20440 亿元)缩量 1788 亿元。A 股宽基指数全部收跌， 其中上证 50 跌幅 2.72%表现相对较好，北证 50 指数跌幅 9.04% 表现最差。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 0 个上涨（上周 20 个）， 30 个下跌（上周 10 个），跌幅最小行业为传媒（-1.39%），跌 幅最大的行业为新能源（-9.41%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收 益率上行，1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周增加 8 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份 额增加 14 ...

Economic Overview - The A-share market has risen from 3350 points at the beginning of the year to around 4000 points, reflecting the real economic fundamentals, with technology and non-ferrous sectors performing well while consumption and coal sectors lagged [1] - Economic growth has been steady in the first three quarters, with the annual target remaining stable, but significant structural changes are occurring beneath the surface [3] Real Estate and Investment Trends - Real estate investment has declined for four consecutive years, with fixed asset investment experiencing its first decline on record, while exports and consumption have taken on a more significant role [3] - The adjustment in the real estate sector has led to a rationalization of housing prices, and new industries are emerging to support economic growth, with state-owned enterprises investing nearly 40% in strategic emerging industries like new energy and integrated circuits [3] Consumption and Export Dynamics - Core CPI has been rising, indicating a stable consumption market, while exports have shown unexpected growth despite a complex external environment, driven by diversified trade layouts [5] - ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, with over 90% of manufacturing exports going to this region, particularly in machine tools and auto parts [5] Price Trends and Corporate Profitability - The recent increase in CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest an improvement in supply-demand relationships, with rising prices in industries like photovoltaic equipment and non-ferrous metal smelting, indicating a better profit environment for companies [7] - The best-performing non-ferrous sector is attributed to the continuous rise in gold prices, with the central bank increasing its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October [9] Sector Performance Insights - The communication and electronics sectors have surged due to the explosion of AI computing power and domestic substitution, exemplified by North Huachuang's net profit exceeding 5.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters [9] - Conversely, the consumption and coal sectors have underperformed due to low food prices affecting profitability and international commodity price declines putting pressure on traditional energy companies [10] Capital Flow and Market Dynamics - The continuous decline in 10-year treasury yields and bank deposit rates has lowered the opportunity cost of investing in the stock market, leading to increased capital inflows into equity funds and bank wealth management products [12] - A-share valuations remain reasonable compared to U.S. stocks, with attractive dividend yields, further drawing investor interest [12] Structural Market Trends - Companies like Laplace, a leader in photovoltaic equipment, have shown steady profit growth supported by N-type technology, indicating that market performance is based on solid fundamentals rather than mere speculation [14] - The structural market trends reflect the economic transition, with declining reliance on real estate, the rise of emerging industries, and optimized export patterns, all of which are mirrored in corporate profitability and capital flows [14] Future Outlook - Understanding the direction of economic transformation allows for better interpretation of stock market signals, with a focus on new productive forces, diversified exports, and technological advancements as key opportunities in a structural market [16]

- The report discusses the "Volume Timing Signal" model, which indicates a cautious view for all indices as of November 21, 2025[24][25] - The "Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index" sentiment indicator is used to gauge market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks with positive returns over a certain period[25][26] - The "Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index" timing tracking involves smoothing the indicator over two different periods to capture its trend, with a bullish view when the short-term line is above the long-term line[27][28][29] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" uses the eight moving averages system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index, assigning values based on the position of the moving average range[33][34][35] - The "Moving Average Sentiment Indicator" shows that the CSI 300 Index is currently in a non-prosperous sentiment range as of November 21, 2025[33][36][37] Model Backtest Results - Volume Timing Signal: All indices show a cautious view as of November 21, 2025[24][25] - Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index: The indicator has recently declined, with the proportion of rising stocks slightly above 50%, indicating cooling market sentiment[25][26] - Number of Rising Stocks in the CSI 300 Index Timing Tracking: Both the fast and slow lines are declining, with the fast line below the slow line, indicating a cautious view for the near future[27][28][29] - Moving Average Sentiment Indicator: The CSI 300 Index is in a non-prosperous sentiment range as of November 21, 2025[33][36][37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Cross-sectional volatility: The recent week saw a decline in cross-sectional volatility for CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents, indicating a deteriorating short-term alpha environment, while the CSI 1000 index constituents saw an increase, indicating an improving short-term alpha environment[2][38] - Time-series volatility: The recent week saw a decline in time-series volatility for CSI 300 index constituents, indicating a deteriorating alpha environment, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index constituents saw an increase, indicating an improving alpha environment[2][39][40] Factor Backtest Results - Cross-sectional volatility: - CSI 300: 2.28% (recent quarter average), 83.44% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 500: 2.44% (recent quarter average), 78.57% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 1000: 2.60% (recent quarter average), 83.67% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years)[39] - Time-series volatility: - CSI 300: 0.73% (recent quarter average), 77.23% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 500: 0.53% (recent quarter average), 80.16% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years) - CSI 1000: 0.27% (recent quarter average), 82.07% (recent quarter average as a percentile of the past two years)[42]

证 券 研 2025 年 11 月 23 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 ——行业比较周跟踪（20251115-20251121） 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST）PE 为 20.6 倍，PB 为 1.7 倍，处于历史 74%和 36%分位； ✓ 上证 50 指数 PE 为 11.9 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 64%和 43%分位； ✓ 中证 500 指数 P ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the technology sector is expected to attract incremental capital, with 16 technology-themed funds approved on November 21, signaling strong investor interest in this area [1][5][8] - The approved funds include the first batch of science and technology entrepreneurship artificial intelligence ETFs from seven fund companies, reflecting a focus on companies involved in AI [2][4] - The issuance of these funds is anticipated to bring at least 30 billion yuan in new capital, as the majority of the funds are not initiated funds, with only one being an initiated fund [5][6] Group 2 - The recent trend shows a significant recovery in new fund issuances, with 73 equity funds established in November alone, averaging around 600 million yuan in issuance size [6][8] - There is a notable demand for technology-themed funds, with some experiencing oversubscription, such as the E Fund Technology Pioneer Mixed Fund, which had effective subscription applications exceeding its 2 billion yuan cap [6][8] - Institutional investors remain optimistic about the technology sector, despite recent market volatility, with continued inflows into AI-themed ETFs, indicating a belief in the long-term growth potential of the AI industry [9][10]

金融工程 短期：成交量模型所有宽基指数中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量 模型看空。智能算法沪深 300 模型中性，智能算法中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型国证 2000 指数与全 A 指数信号由 看多转为中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20251117-20251121） 指数信号整体中性偏空，短期震荡偏空 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍下跌，上证指数单周下跌 3.9%，创业板指单周下跌 6.15%。 A 股模型： 本周行业指数全线下跌，跌幅前五的行业为：综合、电力设备及新能源、基础 化工、综合金融、钢铁。从资金流向角度来说，所有行业主力资金净流出，其 中电子、电力设备及新能源、基础化工、医药、机械主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 95.82%，相较于上周减少了 52 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 88.71%，相较于上周减少了 218 个 bps。 本周汽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market declined across the board, with the large - cap value style being relatively resilient and the North - Star 50 index experiencing a significant decline. Among industries, the banking sector had the smallest decline, while the power equipment & new energy and comprehensive sectors had larger declines [1][2][6]. - The average return of all - market active equity funds was - 4.83%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in the automobile and banking industries. Among industry - themed funds, financial and real estate funds had relatively leading average returns, while pharmaceutical sector funds had relatively lagging average returns [2][11]. - In the bond market, the interest - rate bond market declined, the credit - bond market rose, and the convertible - bond market declined. The average returns of short - term and medium - to - long - term bond funds were 0.02%, while the average returns of equity - linked bond funds and convertible - bond funds were negative [1][2]. - As of November 19, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were - 0.43%, - 1.12%, and - 1.55% respectively [2]. - During the statistical period, the average declines of equity - oriented, index - type, other - type, and bond - type QDII funds were 2.96%, 3.45%, 1.89%, and 0.20% respectively. This week, REITs declined by an average of 1.20% [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The equity market declined across the board this week. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4454 points, down 3.77%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3835 points, down 3.9%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538 points, down 5.13%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2920 points, down 6.15%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index declined by 5.09% and the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by 7.18% [6]. - In terms of industries, the banking sector declined the least, by 0.87%, while the power equipment & new energy and comprehensive sectors declined by 9.41% and 9.47% respectively [9]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of all - market funds in the sample this week was - 4.83%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in the automobile and banking industries. Among industry funds, financial and real estate funds had relatively leading average returns, while pharmaceutical sector funds had relatively lagging average returns [11][12]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of common stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds both decreased. Compared with the previous week, the position of common stock - type funds decreased by 0.31 percentage points, and that of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased by 0.05 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocation to consumption, finance, and cyclical sectors and reduced their allocation to stable and growth sectors [17]. 3.2.2 Bond - Type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: The credit - bond market rose this week. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 246.39, down 0.01% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 246.64, down 0.05% from last week; and the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 225.09, up 0.04% from last week. The convertible - bond market declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index closing at 482.94, down 1.78% week - on - week, and the trading volume was 318 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.316 billion yuan from last week [20][22]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: The average return of short - term bond funds this week was 0.02%, and the median was 0.03%; the average return of medium - to - long - term bond funds was 0.02%, and the median was 0.02%. The average returns of first - tier and second - tier bond funds were - 0.16% and - 0.77% respectively. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was - 1.1%, and the median was - 0.99%; the average return of low - position flexible - allocation funds was - 0.84%, and the median was - 0.67%. The average return of convertible - bond funds was - 2.41%, and the median was - 2.4% [25][27][29]. 3.2.3 FOF As of November 19, 2025, the average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample in the past week were - 0.43%, - 1.12%, and - 1.55% respectively [2][32]. 3.2.4 QDII During the statistical period, the average declines of equity - oriented, index - type, other - type, and bond - type QDII funds were 2.96%, 3.45%, 1.89%, and 0.20% respectively [2]. 3.2.5 REITs This week, REITs declined by an average of 1.20%. Among them, CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT had a relatively high increase, rising 0.96% in the past week. China Asset Management CR Land Ucommune REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 128.2851 million yuan in the past week [36][37].